Isaac pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac is pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains that are causing extremely dangerous flooding and landslides. Isaac's center passed over Haiti's southwest peninsula early this morning, tracking about 50 miles west of the capital of Port-au-Prince. As the center pulled away to the northwest, Isaac's heaviest thunderstorms moved ashore over Hispaniola near sunrise, and are now dumping heavy rains with rainfall rates approaching one inch per hour, according to recent microwave satellite estimates. Barahona on the south coast of the Dominican Republic had received 5.14" of rain as of 8 am EDT this morning, and it is probable that some mountainous areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already received up to 10" of rain from Isaac. These rains will continue though much of the day, and have the potential to cause high loss of life in Hispaniola.


Figure 1. A river north of Port-au-Prince, Haiti in flood due to rains from Isaac. Image from Amélie Baron via Twitter.

Latest observations
Isaac built a partial eyewall last night as the storm approached Haiti, but passage over the rough mountains of Haiti has destroyed the inner core, and the surface center of the storm is now fully exposed to view on satellite images. Radar out of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba shows no sign of an organized center, but does reveal some very intense thunderstorms affecting Eastern Cuba, Western Haiti, and nearby islands. Latest data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm that Isaac has weakened; during their penetration to obtain their 7:08 am EDT center fix, the aircraft reported top surface winds of 55 mph with their SFMR instrument, top flight-level winds at 5,000 feet of 68 mph, and a pressure rise of 3 mb, to 998 mb. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac remains a large and well-organized storm, though it lacks an inner core. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow is still good to the north, but is lacking elsewhere. An impressive large multi-day satellite animation of Isaac is available from the Navy Research Lab.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates estimated by the NOAA F-17 polar orbiting satellite at 6:21 am EDT August 25, 2012. Rainfall rates of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were occurring in a large area to the south of Hispaniola, and these heavy rains have now moved onshore. Image credit: Navy Research Laboratory.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are similar in spread to the previous set of runs. Our two best models, the GFS and ECMWF, are virtually on top of each other, with a landfall location in the Florida Panhandle between Fort Walton Beach and Panama City. It is likely that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north will not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and Isaac has the potential to drop torrential rains capable of causing serious flooding over the Southeast U.S. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model (Figure 3) calls for 10 - 15 inches of rain over portions of Georgia and South Carolina from Isaac. The ECMWF model, however, predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to the west after landfall, resulting in a slow motion across the Tennessee Valley into Arkansas by Friday. Arkansas is experiencing its worst drought in over 50 years, so the rains would be welcome there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Saturday August 25 to 2 am Sunday September 2, from the 2 am EDT August 25 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, and the Southeast U.S. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac survived passage over Hispaniola relatively intact. It's large size aided this, and this will also help it survive passage over Cuba today and Sunday. By the time Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits on Sunday, it will likely be a 50 mph tropical storm with a large, intact circulation. Isaac will be over very warm waters of 31°C (88°F) in the Florida Straits, wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern will feature an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, aiding its upper-level outflow. As I discussed in my previous post, Crossing Hispaniola and Cuba: a history, there have been five storms since 1900 with an intensity similar to Isaac, which crossed over both Haiti and Cuba, then emerged into the Florida Straits. These five storms strengthened by 5 - 20 mph in their first 24 hours after coming off the coast of Cuba. Given the relatively intact structure of Isaac so far, and the favorable conditions for intensification, I expect Isaac will intensify by 15 - 20 mph in 24 hours once the center moves off of the north coast of Cuba. If Isaac spends a full two days over water after passing the Florida Keys, it is possible that it will have enough time to develop a full eyewall and undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model is calling for Isaac to intensify to Category 2 strength, then weaken to Category 1 at landfall in Mississippi on Tuesday. The 06Z HWRF run is calling for landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Fort Walton Beach as a borderline Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The 5 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Isaac a 19% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Gulf. I expect these odds are too low, and that Isaac has a 40% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. I doubt the storm has much of a chance of hitting Category 4 or 5 status, though. While the surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, near 30 - 31°C, the total heat content of these waters is unusually low for this time of year. We got lucky with the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current this summer, as it did not shed a big warm eddy during the height of hurricane season, like happened in 2005 (I discuss this in my Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Tutorial.) Without the type of super-high heat energy we had in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in 2012 will have difficulty forming.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located about 350 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Monday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts moderate shear for the next 5 days over 97L, so some development is possible if 97L can fend off the dry air to its north. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that a tropical wave that has not yet emerged from the coast of Africa may develop next week, and potentially take a more westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.

The Weather Channel's hurricane expert, Brian Norcross, is now writing a blog on wunderground.com. For those of you unfamiliar with his background, here's an excerpt from his first post, from last night:

"This evening 20 years ago the sun set on the horrendous first day after Hurricane Andrew. I was in downtown Miami at the studios of the NBC station. We knew that there was "total" destruction in South Dade County, but even that didn't describe it. Here's to the people that went through it... and held their families together in a situation that most people can't imagine."

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. For the next few days, I plan to do the morning blog post, and Angela will be doing the late afternoon post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1170. dader
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Over a day away


Right- they should have waited until tonight. Closing schools is a major disruption for a potential hurricane that is forecast to pass over appx 130 miles away.
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Quoting msgambler:
This has got to be old. It isn't coming to Mobile, going about 300 miles East. Maybe 400 miles

Did you happen to see the 12z GFS today? Right into Mobile.

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1168. flcanes
Quoting rareaire:


I worked Ike on the Galveston Coast I still dont talk about it.....

how bad was it
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1167. LargoFl
..wind in 42 hours
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
ok all this talk about heat content is not to deep enough in the gulf. No hot loop Current Eddy etc. Then explain how Hurricane Audrey rapidly formed into a 145mph cat 4 monster  in June when heat content is too low  and there was no hot loop current. The point here is you can have a rapidly intensifying Hurricane in the gulf if the conditions in the upper  atmosphere are right and the water is not hot enough at that time.


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Quoting SSideBrac:

Much as I suspected - was curious at the use of the word "mandatory" - perhaps we Brits understand it differently!
I certainly hope that people who refuse to evacuate, in the face of "stronbg recommendations" are firmly warned that they may well be on their own to prevent "1st Responders" putting their lives on the line needlessly


Basically, if there's a mandatory evacuation, they can't force you to leave your home, but it's made crystal clear that you are on your own. Nobody will respond in an emergency, and once curfew hits, if you are found off of your property, you are subject to arrest. At least, that's the way it is in New Orleans.
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After examining the various satellite images and other data Isaac is now located at or about 21N and 75W north of the eastern tip of Cuba. It appears to be getting better organized fairly rapidly with thunderstorms beginnig to develop over and just east of the center. It appears to be now moving more toward the WNW along the north Cuban coast but offshore of the coast. There could be some RI tonight during DMAX as long as it stays over water which it is forecast to do.

Looking ahead it does appear that an ULL is going to cut-off as it moves SW and the trough leaving this ULL lifts out which should drag Isaac more west than currently projected as the system approaches the Florida Keys tomorrow afternoon. The models and the eventual official path by the NHC should be very interesting later this afternoon and tonight.

We'll see! Have a nice afternoon all!!

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Center appears to be emerging off the coast of Cuba. More convection developing on the NE side.

20.45N 75.1W Eye?? or something
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1161. flcanes
Quoting Methurricanes:
I would not trust the state of Massachusetts with that power,all of our speakers of the house have been arrested since the mid 80s, so at least in MA, not a good idea.
Basically Volentary evacuations are- we sujest you leave
Mandatory- you should leave because we (emergency personall) are not going to help you later.

back to tropics, please
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Quoting Tribucanes:
I hear ya loud and clear from a page ago GetReal. Anyone who would wish that on themselves must not be able to read. The aftermath is just hell on wheels. A member who went through the heart of Andrew said he/she was without power for six months. Some have posted they found neighbors dead in their garage when they returned. Not to mention skeleton pets who were left to drown or starve. Watching the nightly news last night, some said they had never psychologically recovered from Andrew and will never be the same. Still in awe at how few died in Andrew, that was a miracle.


I worked Ike on the Galveston Coast I still dont talk about it.....
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THE LATEST ON ISAAC... I bring it to a major hurricane category 4
________________________________________________



for bigger image click here
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They can in Texas.
I would not trust the state of Massachusetts with that power,all of our speakers of the house have been arrested since the mid 80s, so at least in MA, not a good idea.
Basically Volentary evacuations are- we sujest you leave
Mandatory- you should leave because we (emergency personall) are not going to help you later.
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Quoting HCW:
I have wood this morning . It's good thing cause some of the stores this morning in the Mobile area are running low if not out of most stuff and forget about finding a generator . Good luck to everybody in the path of this storm :)
morning wood??? LOL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is the GFS ensemble, sorry if already posted:

This has got to be old. It isn't coming to Mobile, going about 300 miles East. Maybe 400 miles
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Awww yeahhh, no classes on Monday for Miami-Dade!!


You will just loose one of your off days later in the year to make it up :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They can in Texas.
"...if they know they are in eminent danger of losing their life..." "... goes on to explain that the new law would be used judiciously and in extreme cases."

Don't count on it.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i guss will see show stong the storm gets when it enters the open hot gulf waters



and if am right you guys oh me a cookie


If you're right, you'll get a Fresca and nothing more.
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Begin 12z Euro

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No. They can't legitimately remove you from your household and hold mass arrests for not complying; they are ordered but not necessarily enforced. They do vary from state to state, so you will need to revise your statute laws.

Much as I suspected - was curious at the use of the word "mandatory" - perhaps we Brits understand it differently!
I certainly hope that people who refuse to evacuate, in the face of "stronbg recommendations" are firmly warned that they may well be on their own to prevent "1st Responders" putting their lives on the line needlessly
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1150. pottery
Quoting dader:

br>Just another breezy, rainy day in the Keys coming up. I can't believe that Miami-Dade actually closed schools for this.

You think it will stay like that, do you ?
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1149. oakland
Quoting Bradenton:
Absolutely. I'm literally thirty steps from the shore. But I've got family inland in Ellenton and Bradenton. Let's keep our fingers crossed that the legendary Tampa Bay Force Field holds up.


Fingers.......toes......eyes......all are crossed.(It all makes it a little hard to post and read though.) LOL
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Live mobile video streams starting by Monday morning in Naples FL and moving up the SW FL coast with Isaac.
Link
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Euro's running, good initialization.

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Low level center maybe leaving the mid level center behind?

Link
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Quoting dader:


Just another breezy, rainy day in the Keys coming up. I can't believe that Miami-Dade actually closed schools for this.


I figured it wouldn't be long until someone posted something like this.. even though the NHC is calling for a hurricane. Patience is really key.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They can in Texas.


Afternoon Analyst! Crazy morning it was huh?
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1143. drj27
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


lol…I guess TWC can't tell time.
lol i know right thats why i come on weather underground TWC sucks
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1142. LargoFl
to those who dont know tampa bay..here is the storm surge flood map..the dark area's possibly flood in a surge
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1141. scott39
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is the GFS ensemble, sorry if already posted:

Gigantic!
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Quoting dader:


Just another breezy, rainy day in the Keys coming up. I can't believe that Miami-Dade actually closed schools for this.
Over a day away
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euro just kicked off
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


000
WTNT34 KNHC 251745
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC NOW NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 75.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.3 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER
EASTERN CUBA THIS AFTERNOON...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...
AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND ISAAC IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...5 TO 7 FT
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Greetings, all: My only meteorological qualification is living in the path of assorted hurricanes and tropical storms which transit my neighborhood with alarming frequency. I have taken the precaution of locating my house in the shadow of the highest mountains in the Caribbean [Pico Duarte 10,167 ft.] so I get more good photos than storm damage -- up to now. But I watch WU with great interest, and the comment stream is both useful and fascinating, thanks!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No. They can't legitimately remove you from your household and hold mass arrests for not complying; they are ordered but not necessarily enforced. They do vary from state to state, so you will need to revise your statute laws.

They can in Texas.
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I'm pretty sure the center just moved offshore...
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I can kind of see this thing doing a stair step time pattern off the Cuban coast. Jog W, jog N. Should keep WU on their toes for the next 24.
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Quoting chrisdscane:


he's jogging north not west btw


did you look at the map?
isaac took a nw track over haiti, when he emerged, the storm took a wnw direction

Link


twc straight line graph gives a better view of the path.

the current loop does appear to be moving nnw i would agree
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
...CENTER OF ISAAC NOW NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA... ...U.S. Watches/Warnings In Effect...
2:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 25
Location: 20.8°N 75.3°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
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Upstairs boarded Up, Now to do downstairs if needed.
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1129. dader
Quoting barotropic:
cuba beginning to wear on isaac big time. No convection anywhere near center and circulation is dismal compared to 3 or 4 hours ago.


Just another breezy, rainy day in the Keys coming up. I can't believe that Miami-Dade actually closed schools for this.
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This is the GFS ensemble, sorry if already posted:

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Quoting tropicfreak:


What is coming your way is the "eyewall" expect consistent sustained winds of up to 30-40 mph and heavy rain, some occasional lightning.
Lol.But I think this pattern is foreshadowing what it could be like fore winter.Probably getting areas of low pressures bringing in snow(I hope).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting SSideBrac:
Is there any such thing as a "Mandatory Evacuation" in USA - or is the term "mandatory" and oxymoron??
No. They can't legitimately remove you from your household and hold mass arrests for not complying; they are ordered but not necessarily enforced. They do vary from state to state, so you will need to revise your statute laws.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC NOW NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 75.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:
When is the Euro supposed to be published? Damn its been nearly six hours since initialization.


TWC seems to be hinting that the Euro has shifted even farther west. Do they get the outputs early or something?


TWC is full of crap (sorry corporate overloads). Euro won't be out for another hour.
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Quoting oakland:


I'm actually inland near Ellenton but no one knows where that is unless you live here. LOL I think we talked when Debby was here. Don't know how long that beautiful view will last though. If mandated would you need to evacuate?
Absolutely. I'm literally thirty steps from the shore. But I've got family inland in Ellenton and Bradenton. Let's keep our fingers crossed that the legendary Tampa Bay Force Field holds up.
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Sure there is.

Haven't you looked at the steering?

The previous Euro was close to that scenario anyway, I'm still waiting on the next one.




00z Euro

Look what it did with the steering over the mainland.

It would only take a few miles difference to make the left hook happen over water, and BAM worst case scenario in the nation.

If there's nothing going that way, why do 2 of the top six model consensus BESIDES the Euro go that way, and why does 3 of the old GFS members go that way?


I guess you figure all of that should just be disregarded: The best consensus model plus 3 members of the GFS, plus the GFDL, and NAM should all be thrown out, eh?



He obviously wants Isaac near him... Hence the gulfbreeze in his screenname..
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1121. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather