Isaac pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac is pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains that are causing extremely dangerous flooding and landslides. Isaac's center passed over Haiti's southwest peninsula early this morning, tracking about 50 miles west of the capital of Port-au-Prince. As the center pulled away to the northwest, Isaac's heaviest thunderstorms moved ashore over Hispaniola near sunrise, and are now dumping heavy rains with rainfall rates approaching one inch per hour, according to recent microwave satellite estimates. Barahona on the south coast of the Dominican Republic had received 5.14" of rain as of 8 am EDT this morning, and it is probable that some mountainous areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already received up to 10" of rain from Isaac. These rains will continue though much of the day, and have the potential to cause high loss of life in Hispaniola.


Figure 1. A river north of Port-au-Prince, Haiti in flood due to rains from Isaac. Image from Amélie Baron via Twitter.

Latest observations
Isaac built a partial eyewall last night as the storm approached Haiti, but passage over the rough mountains of Haiti has destroyed the inner core, and the surface center of the storm is now fully exposed to view on satellite images. Radar out of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba shows no sign of an organized center, but does reveal some very intense thunderstorms affecting Eastern Cuba, Western Haiti, and nearby islands. Latest data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm that Isaac has weakened; during their penetration to obtain their 7:08 am EDT center fix, the aircraft reported top surface winds of 55 mph with their SFMR instrument, top flight-level winds at 5,000 feet of 68 mph, and a pressure rise of 3 mb, to 998 mb. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac remains a large and well-organized storm, though it lacks an inner core. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow is still good to the north, but is lacking elsewhere. An impressive large multi-day satellite animation of Isaac is available from the Navy Research Lab.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates estimated by the NOAA F-17 polar orbiting satellite at 6:21 am EDT August 25, 2012. Rainfall rates of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were occurring in a large area to the south of Hispaniola, and these heavy rains have now moved onshore. Image credit: Navy Research Laboratory.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are similar in spread to the previous set of runs. Our two best models, the GFS and ECMWF, are virtually on top of each other, with a landfall location in the Florida Panhandle between Fort Walton Beach and Panama City. It is likely that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north will not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and Isaac has the potential to drop torrential rains capable of causing serious flooding over the Southeast U.S. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model (Figure 3) calls for 10 - 15 inches of rain over portions of Georgia and South Carolina from Isaac. The ECMWF model, however, predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to the west after landfall, resulting in a slow motion across the Tennessee Valley into Arkansas by Friday. Arkansas is experiencing its worst drought in over 50 years, so the rains would be welcome there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Saturday August 25 to 2 am Sunday September 2, from the 2 am EDT August 25 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, and the Southeast U.S. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac survived passage over Hispaniola relatively intact. It's large size aided this, and this will also help it survive passage over Cuba today and Sunday. By the time Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits on Sunday, it will likely be a 50 mph tropical storm with a large, intact circulation. Isaac will be over very warm waters of 31°C (88°F) in the Florida Straits, wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern will feature an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, aiding its upper-level outflow. As I discussed in my previous post, Crossing Hispaniola and Cuba: a history, there have been five storms since 1900 with an intensity similar to Isaac, which crossed over both Haiti and Cuba, then emerged into the Florida Straits. These five storms strengthened by 5 - 20 mph in their first 24 hours after coming off the coast of Cuba. Given the relatively intact structure of Isaac so far, and the favorable conditions for intensification, I expect Isaac will intensify by 15 - 20 mph in 24 hours once the center moves off of the north coast of Cuba. If Isaac spends a full two days over water after passing the Florida Keys, it is possible that it will have enough time to develop a full eyewall and undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model is calling for Isaac to intensify to Category 2 strength, then weaken to Category 1 at landfall in Mississippi on Tuesday. The 06Z HWRF run is calling for landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Fort Walton Beach as a borderline Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The 5 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Isaac a 19% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Gulf. I expect these odds are too low, and that Isaac has a 40% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. I doubt the storm has much of a chance of hitting Category 4 or 5 status, though. While the surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, near 30 - 31°C, the total heat content of these waters is unusually low for this time of year. We got lucky with the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current this summer, as it did not shed a big warm eddy during the height of hurricane season, like happened in 2005 (I discuss this in my Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Tutorial.) Without the type of super-high heat energy we had in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in 2012 will have difficulty forming.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located about 350 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Monday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts moderate shear for the next 5 days over 97L, so some development is possible if 97L can fend off the dry air to its north. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that a tropical wave that has not yet emerged from the coast of Africa may develop next week, and potentially take a more westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.

The Weather Channel's hurricane expert, Brian Norcross, is now writing a blog on wunderground.com. For those of you unfamiliar with his background, here's an excerpt from his first post, from last night:

"This evening 20 years ago the sun set on the horrendous first day after Hurricane Andrew. I was in downtown Miami at the studios of the NBC station. We knew that there was "total" destruction in South Dade County, but even that didn't describe it. Here's to the people that went through it... and held their families together in a situation that most people can't imagine."

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. For the next few days, I plan to do the morning blog post, and Angela will be doing the late afternoon post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 621 - 571

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Quoting tennisgirl08:


Well, Debby recurved. But I think Isaac will move further west because of timing.
I meant to say recurve out in the Atlantic. Ernesto and Isaac are examples of waves that came off the coast of Africa and did not recurve east of the US.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Just wanted to run a quick update. The Portlight Disaster Relief Team will be pre-deploying to Panama City (tentative location) tomorrow in order to be in position for any response that is needed for potential Hurricane Isaac's landfall along the Gulf Coast. We will be running the live webcam as much as cell coverage permits during our relief efforts starting tomorrow. I will be in out of the blog today since I am pretty busy getting ready, but please look for updates from presslord, myself, and other team members as the day progresses.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flcanes:

watchout for the backdoor surge coming in to florida bay
yes for sure, and with all those people trying to get out of here who dont live here, dont know the roads etc..whew
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
This cannot be stated enough times.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE
AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Where's Nrt lol?

what's nrt
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
recon plans for today this updated



000
NOUS42 KNHC 251602
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 25 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-098


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 76-- FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 49--
A. 26/1500,1800,2100Z A. 27/0000Z
B. AFXXX 2109A ISAAC B. NOAA9 2209A ISAAC
C. 26/1200Z C. 26/1730Z
D. 23.6N 79.5W D. NA
E. 26/1430Z TO 26/2100Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE --NOAA 42-- FLIGHT FOUR --TEAL 77--
A. 27/0000Z A. 27/0000,0300,0600Z
B. NOAA2 2309A ISAAC B. AFXXX 2409A ISAAC
C. 26/2000Z C. 26/2130Z
D. 24.7N 81.3W D. 24.7N 81.3W
E. 27/0100Z TO 27/0600Z E. 26/2300Z TO 27/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE --NOAA49-- FLIGHT SIX --TEAL 75--
A. 27/1200Z A. 27/0900,1200,1500Z
B. NOAA9 2509A ISAAC B. AFXXX 2609A ISAAC
C. 27/0530Z C. 26/0645Z
D. NA D. 25.6N 82.6W
E. NA E. 27/0830Z TO 27/1500Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT SEVEN --NOAA 42--
A. 27/1200Z
B. NOAA2 2709A ISAAC
C. 27/0800Z
D. 25.9N 83.1W
E. 27/0900Z TO 27/1400Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: 3-HRLY FIXES CONTINUE. .
G-IV MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS. WP-3 FLYING EVER 12 HRS.

nhc is really worried
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:
I guess the HH will take a bit longer to go out.
Where's Nrt lol?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bamatracker:


Had too. My met professor was telling us about it on Thursday. I think it was a reality check not to get caught up in the poor appearance of Isaac while it traverses the Greater Antellies.


smart professor! do you study at South? if so, you may have come into the bank to see me a time or two.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thewindman:
12z GFS putting it near Gulfport. That is where Katrina came ashore and we all know what happened to NOLA. If there is a trend further west with the upcoming models not only will we be dealing with a CAT 3 given time over water but a possible evacuation of NOLA again.


I disagree. The models have been flip flopping between MS/AL coast landfall and PCB, Florida area.

They have never moved further west than Mobile/MS area and they probably won't.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllyBama:


I know! I should just back away from watching and reading for at least 30 minutes..who knows what will transpire during that time - lol


same here decided to take a break and get some cleaning done and check back and NOT liking new model runs...i just don't get it....hopefully flip back east later...no offense to those that way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wpb:
gov scott i give him credit he said lets wait for sunday morning nhc advisory to see what kind of storm we have...he is getting good advice not like the local tv scar stations
yes tomorrow morning will be the good advisory, especially for tampa
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, August 25th, with Video
thanks levi. the 12z GFS shows a much stronger storm further west pressure in the 970's. how strong is that wind wise on the model run?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
With Isaac in a weakened state, he could hug the northern coast of Cuba just like the front running area of precip. Could be playing "follow the leader".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
607. wpb
cantore needs to get to the norteast gulf coast
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
120 hrs. that Subtropical Ridge has been so strong this year, no wonder we haven't seen many recurves.



Well, Debby recurved. But I think Isaac will move further west because of timing.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 48 hours, looks pretty close to me
Hope you are prepared and stay safe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flcanes:

never, ever diss levi on a blog


I don't think he's dissing Levi, might be dissing me cause I made a bold statement that Isaac would not cross 85W.. I'm still in good confidence that the storm will recurve at 85W and not pass it. I don't see how storms bust through a developing ridge. I can see it busting through a banana type ridge where the ridge could split, but not a corner of a developing ridge. Isaac remains moving NW towards the East Coast of Florida for now, and because of the uncertainty in track and the size of the storm, Tropical Storm watches have been issued all the way up to Flagler Beach, which is Northeastern FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z GFS putting it near Gulfport. That is where Katrina came ashore and we all know what happened to NOLA. If there is a trend further west with the upcoming models not only will we be dealing with a CAT 3 given time over water but a possible evacuation of NOLA again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
120 HR FINAL / TOTAL


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 48 hours, looks pretty close to me

watchout for the backdoor surge coming in to florida bay
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
recon plans for today this updated



000
NOUS42 KNHC 251602
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 25 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-098


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 76-- FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 49--
A. 26/1500,1800,2100Z A. 27/0000Z
B. AFXXX 2109A ISAAC B. NOAA9 2209A ISAAC
C. 26/1200Z C. 26/1730Z
D. 23.6N 79.5W D. NA
E. 26/1430Z TO 26/2100Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE --NOAA 42-- FLIGHT FOUR --TEAL 77--
A. 27/0000Z A. 27/0000,0300,0600Z
B. NOAA2 2309A ISAAC B. AFXXX 2409A ISAAC
C. 26/2000Z C. 26/2130Z
D. 24.7N 81.3W D. 24.7N 81.3W
E. 27/0100Z TO 27/0600Z E. 26/2300Z TO 27/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE --NOAA49-- FLIGHT SIX --TEAL 75--
A. 27/1200Z A. 27/0900,1200,1500Z
B. NOAA9 2509A ISAAC B. AFXXX 2609A ISAAC
C. 27/0530Z C. 26/0645Z
D. NA D. 25.6N 82.6W
E. NA E. 27/0830Z TO 27/1500Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT SEVEN --NOAA 42--
A. 27/1200Z
B. NOAA2 2709A ISAAC
C. 27/0800Z
D. 25.9N 83.1W
E. 27/0900Z TO 27/1400Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: 3-HRLY FIXES CONTINUE. .
G-IV MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS. WP-3 FLYING EVER 12 HRS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam not enjoying what i see ally iam very concearned at the moment


me either! even if I do live in Mobile, I have friends from one end of the Gulf to the other and points inland that would be affected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flcanes:

that spells tampa under water

Yeah, I wasn't thinking that the RNC was safe just yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


My latest forecast map.
Unofficial
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
596. wpb
gov scott i give him credit he said lets wait for sunday morning nhc advisory to see what kind of storm we have...he is getting good advice not like the local tv scar stations
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
From our blog (originally written to help w/ Irene):

Full disclosure. For Bertha and Fran in NC (Cat 2 and 3, 56 days apart in ’96), we only lived 10 miles inland, were on the eastern side of the storm both times (translation: got beat all to hell), never boarded up and did just fine. The most important thing we did, and have always done, is CLEAR THE AREA OF POTENTIAL FLYING OBJECTS. Anything and everything in our yard AND the neighborhood that could be turned into a missile (including that 100lb garden pot you don’t think can fly…it can), goes into the garage. Bertha came in during the daytime and, along around noon, we got to watch the neighbor’s metal shed explode and fly through our backyard at about 110 mph. That was the only thing we couldn’t control that day that went walkabout, and it would have killed someone if the wind hadn’t been parallel to the house.

Alright, shopping time.

IMHO and hard won experience, these are stores every single household should have (and you may already have much of it). Use your brain, based on the number and age of folks in your household.
Remember you are going to be HOT, cranky and exerting yourself in the aftermath if, GOD FORBID, the thing smacks you good.
Think of preparing for this as a picnic on crack. Take a good hard look at what you already have on your shelves first, add or subtract according to what you have onhand vs your particular needs/family’s tastes and then…

A Few Days PRIOR (three days out may be TOO LATE to find everything):

3 gallons BOTTLED water per person (for 3 days) minimum
enough prescription medication to get you through 10 DAYS if you take any
canned tuna/chicken/SPAM/shelf stable meats
those damned nasty vienna snausages
canned chili
beenie weenies
canned soups like “chunky” that don’t need water added
mayo/mustard/ketchup
bread (Get the one with the FURTHEST OUT SHELF DATE)
canned vegetables, like green beans or baby peas
kraft macaroni and cheese in a box
dry cereal
instant oatmeal
squeezy cheese
large jar(s) peanut butter
large jar(s) jelly
various boxes of crackers
instant coffee or tea
coffemate, dry milk or shelf stable milk
sugar, salt, pepper
juice boxes
instant potatoes (like a BIG box of “Potato Buds”)
whatever fresh fruit your family enjoys
butter or (gulp) margarine
dogfood/catfood if you have furry family members besides, well…
snacks and chips
canned or plastic jarred fruits, like cocktail or peaches
pudding cups
dish detergent
antiseptic hand soap
paper towels
paper napkins
plastic utensils (forks, knives,spoons)
paper plates
plastic trash bags
ZIPLOCK baggies, QT and GAL
DUCK tape
boxes of wooden matches
MANUAL CAN OPENER
large candles (and not really stinky ones) WITH a GAS LEAK, CANDLES CAN BE BAD. **SITUATIONAL AWARENESS** KNOW what’s going on.
bug spray, both yard and personal
A BATTERY OPERATED RADIO (that voice in the dark from the local TV station will be your BEST FRIEND, trust me.)
LARGE BATTERY OPERATED LIGHTS that will sit independently (hard to go to a dark bathroom holding a flashlight)
small flashlights
LED poplights are great
BATTERIES and SPARES that fit EVERY SINGLE THING YOU NEED BATTERIES FOR!!!
FILL YOUR PROPANE CANNISTER NOW (if you are on a direct gas hook-up, get a charcoal grill)
3 bags of charcoal
lighter fluid for the charcoal
CASH
CAR CHARGER for cell phones (ours were worthless during Ivan but I’ve heard they’ve come a long way, tower-wise…)
COOLERS for the ice (and the stuff that’ll come out of that fridge)
FIRST AID KIT which I bolster with additional Ace bandages, BandAids of every size and description, sterile wraps, tapes, Neosporin, hydrocortizone, anti-histimine pills, aspirin etc.
Little Coleman tanks if you have camping stoves or lights (as always, to be used OUTSIDE AFTERWARDS…DUH)
Old fashioned board games, playing cards, Mille Bornes, Yahtzee, books (especially with wired little ones)

Hold off on ice until the latest you possibly can, which is why it’s NOT on the “go after work TONIGHT” list. TOP YOUR GAS TANKS off while you can. You all will have to fight a ton more people at the pump than we ever did down here.

*DIRECT plug-in phone like a Princess type, if you have a PHONE COMPANY landline. Your multiple remote handset phone will not work when the power goes out, and your old fashioned one may very well get a call out on the substation batteries. See below.

************************************************* ************************************************** *******

When you’re ready to close the house up, LOCK YOUR GARAGE DOORS DOWN. If you don’t park in your garage, PULL YOUR CARS SNUG UP TO THE DOORS. They provide the most excellent wind baffle you can imagine and, considering the further up the East Coast you go, the less the doors are reinforced like ours here in the Panhandle, you will NEED every little bit of wind mitigation you can muster. You car insurance will take car of whatever Irene does to the vehicle.

This is doubly important because, contrary to the old wives tale about “equalizing pressure’, if those winds get into your garage, not only do they start tearing the garage to bits, they start LIFTING YOUR ROOF OFF. And then your whole house is a goner. The only house in our neighborhood to have the roof blown to bits during the 140mph+ gusts of Ivan was the ONE home where the owner had the garage door “cracked” opened to “relieve the pressure”.
************************************************** ************************************************** *****
*What to Do Inside*

Get Your Important “Stuff” Together


Your papers, diplomas, etc. All those things that make your life identifiable? Those things your would rush out of a burning building with? If they’re not already in one place together, get them together NOW. And add one more thing ~ a copy of a utility bill, like electric or phone. If, God forbid, you have to evacuate and they work it like they do down here, that address on your drivers license WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT PROOF OF YOUR RESIDENCY. You HAVE to have a utility bill with THAT address and YOUR name in your possession to return to your home. Period. (Great evacuation tips here in the comments.)
Have a “plan”. WHO are you going to call when it’s over, WHO knows where all your stuff is if, God forbid, something happens. If you get separated, have a meet-up. In our family, it’s Bingster and me tag-teaming. He has all our info for both sides of the family (including Kcruella). When the batteries on the landline substations were still working the morning after Ivan, I got a call out to him, and that’s how everyone else knew we were okay. AT&T screwed the pooch cell-phone-wise here, so we have KEPT our landline, in spite of everything. Trauma dies hard.

What to Do With Important “Stuff”

You all will laugh, but I double plastic bag it, duct tape it…and put it in the dishwasher, then latch the thing shut and tape over the entire front control panel. It’s waterproof and even if one of those spin-up tornados takes a chunk of the roof, the documents of my life are going nowhere, because they’re bolted under the counter and DRY. Other middlin’ precious things I double bag up as well and stash in a rack-free self-cleaning oven and the dryer (duct-taping the door of that shut).

Potable Water

Make sure every single water toting vessel is clean and filled with filtered (if you can) water, from the sun-tea jar to the ancient Igloo softball cooler to tea kettle, and all the pitchers in between. This augments the bottled water on your list and is the FIRST water you use. (Make sure it’s COVERED to keep out bugs/dust.) As well, EVERY POT is filled to the brim with tap water for use as either coffee/tea/mac ‘n cheese makings or wash/rinse water, as well as pet drinking water. All that’s staged on the kitchen counters.

Get ALL Your Laundry Done

You can run out of underwear FAST and blow through some serious t-shirts clearing flotsom. Plus, the second the last load is out of the washer, fill it up on it’s largest setting with cold water and STOP it. Voilà. Another source of water for rinse/washing. (The washing machine also makes an EXCELLENT ice cooler if you are space challenged, trust me. Fill it with THAT instead.)

Bathrooms

Scrub EVERY tub SPARKLING With a bleach based cleaner. We use a piece of saran wrap over the stopper, then plug it to make absolutely sure there’s NO leakage, then FILL THAT SUCKER UP. This becomes both relatively clean water to dip out for a sink sponge bath AND the ALL IMPORTANT FLUSH THE TOILET water. (And is ONLY used for…well, not tinkling.) Speaking of which, it doesn’t hurt to have a “Tidy Bowl” beforehand, if there’s a chance the power might be out for DAYS, if you get my drift…
Now, you may get lucky and have a trickle of water like we did after Fran, but the water company may beg you not to use it, because they’re trying to find leaks, or it’s not potable or whatever. (Another reason to HAVE A REAL RADIO: PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENTS CAN SAVE YOUR LIFE)

GIVE YOUR PETS AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES TO “DO THEIR BUSINESS”. Once the front door shuts on the howling outside, it’s shut for GOOD. If it comes in during the day, we make meals a tad lighter and earlier than usual. The Scotties and Labradors have always seemed to know something big was on the way and their systems have responded accordingly, but, let’s face it: when you gotta go, you gotta go. So don’t force the poor things into that position in the first place. Plenty of available water, but schmaybe that big dinner/breakfast isn’t necessary, okay?

LOCAL RADIO STATIONS (as well as simulcasts from local TV channels or your local university Public Radio) WILL BE YOUR BEST SOURCE OF WEATHER INFO for your area, not to mention what’s happening as the storm whirls overhead. John Ed Thompson out of Fox10, Mobile, AL is a GOD in our household for what he did during Ivan. At 3 in the morning, when ~ to quote the Squid Terrorist on the walkie talkie from next door ~ it “Sounds like the Devil’s trying to beat my front door down! I’m fixin’ to nail 2×4′s over it and, if that doesn’t work, I’m breaking apart the china cabinet to use IT!”

Creature Comforts

While you’re busy as a bee, I always, ALWAYS recommend setting the thermostat on your A/C (while you have it) as LOW AS YOU CAN POSSIBLY STAND IT.

As in MEATLOCKER. Wearing SWEATS IN AUGUST cold. “But, ths, why?” you ask.

Because the second that power goes out and ALL those anxious people are still in your house in August breathing?

That temp is going to climb and F.A.S.T. And it will suck so bad.

And you will still have HOURS of storm to go, and schmaybe days without power. You’ll thank me.

The Refrigerator


We were sort of old school with this. As I told Bingley in the comments, this is what we’ve always done, and ONLY works with a mostly FULL FREEZER. Once we’ve gotten ice ~ usually three to four of the big coolers worth, then three stacked on each other, on a beach towel, covered with garbage bags, then blankets for insulation ~ we already have inventoried the fridge itself. When the power starts going dodgey, we’ll transfer all the perishables out of the fridge to the lone ice chest (milk, BACON, eggs, half & half, etc.) and shut the door FOR GOOD. That’s IT. No peeking, no forgetting, no going in for something ~ you want the fridge to cool completely back down. When the power finally gives up the ghost, we throw unopened, big plastic garbage bags over the whole fridge, then cover that with packing blankets or whatever you have. Wrap some duct tape around it and keep your paws off. Believe or not, that will keep all but the flimsiest frozen goods rock solid for at least three days. If you don’t have power by then, you can start defrosting stuff and eating it. *NEVER eat anything that’s partially thawed. Throw it out. (*CHECK FOR THIS THE SECOND THE POWER COMES BACK ON as well, or it’ll refreeze and you could easily get sick from it later, and be clueless why. Don’t take the chance.)

With your ice chests, just break them out as you need them, always keeping the extras covered. We had ice for a week and a half after Ivan doing it this way, and thank goodness. (The stack worked out great against the door when the winds were threatening to blow it in. Dual purpose! And good times…)

There is NOTHING like the comfort of knowing you did everything you could possibly do to prepare. It’s out of your hands from that point forward.

Have a cocktail.

It’s amazing how many knuckleheads who evacuated and watched the whole damn thing on TV came home empty handed, small children in tow no less! We were living like refugees and had to give THEM supplies.

DO NOT RUN OUTSIDE THE SECOND THE WIND SORT OF DIES DOWN

Trees will still be falling. On your gourd.

DO NOT GO LOLLYGAGGING AROUND AFTERWARD TO “SEE”

No electricity TO RUN GAS STATION PUMPS. No electricity TO RUN STOP LIGHTS. LIVE ELECTRICAL WIRES LAYING EVERYWHERE Flat tires upon multiple flat tires.

IT’S ANARCHY. STAY HOME.


Whip you up some coffee, scrambled eggs and lovely applewood smoked bacon sammiches on the Weber gas grill, like we’ve done the morning after EVERY hurricane.

It’s a good thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
120 hrs. that Subtropical Ridge has been so strong this year, no wonder we haven't seen many recurves.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherbro:


The models keep the Burmuda ridge mainly weak in the same position throughout.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I guess the HH will take a bit longer to go out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Nice update, Levi.

Your track seems further east than latest GFS and even NHC track. Can you explain your reasoning behind this? I tend to agree with your track, although a little farther west closer to Panama City.

Thanks!

agree with blend between your's and levi
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
GFS at 48 hours, looks pretty close to me
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Historical analogs based on the new GFS.



and



and

(cone shift)


and

If some freaky stalls in the steering layers happen...



and

Left hook from the keys, knock ya down for the count



and



and

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
12z GFS would be awful for New Orleans (and not to great for the rest of the area either). Strong cat. 3 storm (at least) that basically parks just to the east and pounds water from the lake into the levies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomballTXPride:
This is 96-120 hours out. Too earlier to project specific landfall. It should go without saying that anyone along the Gulf coast from Mobile, AL to the Big Bend Region of Florida should be getting prepared.



YES!! Probably landfall will be in this area like he stated.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
To my eye the center of Isaac looks to half on shore , half offshore on the SE coast of around 19.9/20N 74.9/75W , barely moving at all.


yeah I think its about there I have it at 20.1N 75.2W moving W.

I thought it was now off the coast WNW of SE tip of cuba near 21.1N 75.2W but when I zoomed it the clouds had a slight spin but moving in the other direction clockwise lol so I guess that is certainly not it

Quoting barotropic:


I think isaac has slowed also. Its going to be a long day. I think any delay in movement further reduces the already remote chance of any S Fla direct hit.


yeap and also reduces the movement of WNW-NW as trough make the move and the ridge continues to build back in
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Huge anticyclone very warm sst and a moist environment.All things needed to create a beast...

Agreed LOOK OUT!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What time do model runs come out through the day?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmmm... a large, broad, lumbering Cat-2 "I"-storm tracking into the Gulf coast... where have I seen this before?

I sure hope that GFS model run doesn't pan out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anything good happen in the last couple hours?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting midgulfmom:
Issac put windshield wipers on high......

heavy rain, storm surge, maybe some wind and plenty of tornados
am i missing something
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, August 25th, with Video


Nice update, Levi.

Your track seems further east than latest GFS and even NHC track. Can you explain your reasoning behind this? I tend to agree with your track, although a little farther west closer to Panama City.

Thanks!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting flcanes:

okay, ivan landfall it is
( and near the 8th anniversary to)
(pouts)


that one went right over my house... no thank you.. as i get ready to go out to start the pre prep clean up in the yard.... we have 6 houses to attend to this year
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 900MB:


Wow! 918MB, that is low!!!!!!

Andrew was 922Mb
Camille 909
Katrina 904

It was 978 mb not 918 lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllyBama:


Bama, did you have to bring up Frederic!..lol


Had too. My met professor was telling us about it on Thursday. I think it was a reality check not to get caught up in the poor appearance of Isaac while it traverses the Greater Antellies.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting wpb:
12z has your impossible track again central gom. and a path more west over lower keys

never, ever diss levi on a blog
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Issac put windshield wipers on high......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
..dominican republic
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 621 - 571

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather