Isaac pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac is pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains that are causing extremely dangerous flooding and landslides. Isaac's center passed over Haiti's southwest peninsula early this morning, tracking about 50 miles west of the capital of Port-au-Prince. As the center pulled away to the northwest, Isaac's heaviest thunderstorms moved ashore over Hispaniola near sunrise, and are now dumping heavy rains with rainfall rates approaching one inch per hour, according to recent microwave satellite estimates. Barahona on the south coast of the Dominican Republic had received 5.14" of rain as of 8 am EDT this morning, and it is probable that some mountainous areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already received up to 10" of rain from Isaac. These rains will continue though much of the day, and have the potential to cause high loss of life in Hispaniola.


Figure 1. A river north of Port-au-Prince, Haiti in flood due to rains from Isaac. Image from Amélie Baron via Twitter.

Latest observations
Isaac built a partial eyewall last night as the storm approached Haiti, but passage over the rough mountains of Haiti has destroyed the inner core, and the surface center of the storm is now fully exposed to view on satellite images. Radar out of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba shows no sign of an organized center, but does reveal some very intense thunderstorms affecting Eastern Cuba, Western Haiti, and nearby islands. Latest data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm that Isaac has weakened; during their penetration to obtain their 7:08 am EDT center fix, the aircraft reported top surface winds of 55 mph with their SFMR instrument, top flight-level winds at 5,000 feet of 68 mph, and a pressure rise of 3 mb, to 998 mb. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac remains a large and well-organized storm, though it lacks an inner core. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow is still good to the north, but is lacking elsewhere. An impressive large multi-day satellite animation of Isaac is available from the Navy Research Lab.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates estimated by the NOAA F-17 polar orbiting satellite at 6:21 am EDT August 25, 2012. Rainfall rates of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were occurring in a large area to the south of Hispaniola, and these heavy rains have now moved onshore. Image credit: Navy Research Laboratory.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are similar in spread to the previous set of runs. Our two best models, the GFS and ECMWF, are virtually on top of each other, with a landfall location in the Florida Panhandle between Fort Walton Beach and Panama City. It is likely that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north will not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and Isaac has the potential to drop torrential rains capable of causing serious flooding over the Southeast U.S. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model (Figure 3) calls for 10 - 15 inches of rain over portions of Georgia and South Carolina from Isaac. The ECMWF model, however, predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to the west after landfall, resulting in a slow motion across the Tennessee Valley into Arkansas by Friday. Arkansas is experiencing its worst drought in over 50 years, so the rains would be welcome there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Saturday August 25 to 2 am Sunday September 2, from the 2 am EDT August 25 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, and the Southeast U.S. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac survived passage over Hispaniola relatively intact. It's large size aided this, and this will also help it survive passage over Cuba today and Sunday. By the time Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits on Sunday, it will likely be a 50 mph tropical storm with a large, intact circulation. Isaac will be over very warm waters of 31°C (88°F) in the Florida Straits, wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern will feature an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, aiding its upper-level outflow. As I discussed in my previous post, Crossing Hispaniola and Cuba: a history, there have been five storms since 1900 with an intensity similar to Isaac, which crossed over both Haiti and Cuba, then emerged into the Florida Straits. These five storms strengthened by 5 - 20 mph in their first 24 hours after coming off the coast of Cuba. Given the relatively intact structure of Isaac so far, and the favorable conditions for intensification, I expect Isaac will intensify by 15 - 20 mph in 24 hours once the center moves off of the north coast of Cuba. If Isaac spends a full two days over water after passing the Florida Keys, it is possible that it will have enough time to develop a full eyewall and undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model is calling for Isaac to intensify to Category 2 strength, then weaken to Category 1 at landfall in Mississippi on Tuesday. The 06Z HWRF run is calling for landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Fort Walton Beach as a borderline Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The 5 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Isaac a 19% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Gulf. I expect these odds are too low, and that Isaac has a 40% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. I doubt the storm has much of a chance of hitting Category 4 or 5 status, though. While the surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, near 30 - 31°C, the total heat content of these waters is unusually low for this time of year. We got lucky with the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current this summer, as it did not shed a big warm eddy during the height of hurricane season, like happened in 2005 (I discuss this in my Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Tutorial.) Without the type of super-high heat energy we had in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in 2012 will have difficulty forming.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located about 350 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Monday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts moderate shear for the next 5 days over 97L, so some development is possible if 97L can fend off the dry air to its north. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that a tropical wave that has not yet emerged from the coast of Africa may develop next week, and potentially take a more westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.

The Weather Channel's hurricane expert, Brian Norcross, is now writing a blog on wunderground.com. For those of you unfamiliar with his background, here's an excerpt from his first post, from last night:

"This evening 20 years ago the sun set on the horrendous first day after Hurricane Andrew. I was in downtown Miami at the studios of the NBC station. We knew that there was "total" destruction in South Dade County, but even that didn't describe it. Here's to the people that went through it... and held their families together in a situation that most people can't imagine."

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. For the next few days, I plan to do the morning blog post, and Angela will be doing the late afternoon post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting Clearwater1:
and where do you see that?
Maybe Tampa moved to the East coast?
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
I see that Tampa is now out of the cone. We'll get some good rains with 30-40mph winds
Tampa is clearly in the cone albeit, just making it, but 11 am graph, yep, in the cone
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Quoting DVG:


Yeah I think it is. Was out for a sec and am catching up. The RGB I believe really shows the true center. Isaac looks about 1.5 degree east of the waypoint now.


Vis implies just going ashore Cuba between Guantanamo and Baracoa.
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Quoting Relix:
So, where is wunderkidcayman seeing that SW movement again? :P!
Going to therapy because Isaac did not come his way.ROFLMAO!.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
OK, Broward is "out of cone" but we still have Tropical Storm Warnings which means we will get
the high winds and rain, dirty side of the storm.

Plus I am only 150 miles from Key West.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Good morning N.C storm.Looks like it's the Gulf's turn this year.


yeah this time its looks to be them for landfall but impacts will be felt well inland with flooding..
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I don't know if the HH can get clearance to fly in Cuban airspace. So until it comes out of their airspace I don't think they can pinpoint the exact center.
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Thanks, all. I came here to find out why the NHC center position didn't appear to be the center on satellite, and you cleared it up for me. The satellite must show the mid-level a little clearer than the surface right now.
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Issac is moving NW that means at landfall the center should be @ 26North & 80west roughly. That takes the center right into northern dade, southern broward counties. My guess Hurricane Warnings would be going up for that area at anytime.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
I see that Tampa is now out of the cone. We'll get some good rains with 30-40mph winds
and where do you see that?
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211. wpb
Quoting Charmeck:
PLEASE STOP WITH THE BULLETIN POSTS - ONCE OR MAYBE TWICE IS ENOUGH - WE'VE SEEN IT!
thanks for that post
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
I see that Tampa is now out of the cone. We'll get some good rains with 30-40mph winds
stay tuned , next advisory we will be back in it, then the 11pm we will be out of it, then the 2am we will be back in it lol
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Quoting tennisgirl08:


The craziest thing about this update is how fast Isaac is still moving.


Crusin' along for sure. Should be over water soon.
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100 mph not bad


it could still be come a lot stronger or weaker will this have too see
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Looks like Isaac will be back over water by 5pm per NHC track. Some things to look for the next few hours is if deep convection starts developing north of Cuba. You can tell by the amount of moisture in front of Isaac that it has plenty of it ahead.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:


Coast.



That depiction of the center is way off to the WSW lol! In reality it is in the Windward Channel just east of the eastern most tip of Cuba according to NHC estimates!:)
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NHC Intensity forecast table.

Here

crazy image is bugging out.

Considering an intensity model is calling for a 100mph landfall, I think they are low-balling it.
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Good morning N.C storm.Looks like it's the Gulf's turn this year.
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

? NHC coordinates say NO! Its off the coast.


Yeah its conflicting info, NHC says just off coast in discussion, but coordinates they gave are on land according to my tracking chart.
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wow Isaac will propbably travel on land now according to latest plot and motion... hmmm... maybe THAT'S why the models are indicating a more WNW-W track - A WEAKER storm... until the gulf that's when it should spin up and go norht to hit the panhandle... SHOULD hit the panhandle...

I'm still a little uneasy about this one for some reason....
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200. Relix
So, where is wunderkidcayman seeing that SW movement again? :P!
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 25
Location: 20.1°N 74.6°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


The craziest thing about this update is how fast Isaac is still moving.
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Quoting RTSplayer:
1000mb steering:



990mb

That would mean just about a straight west movement according to those steering maps correct? Thanks
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Quoting Dunkman:


A lot of the time with big storms like this the winds on the coast can reach TS strength hundreds of miles away from the center. I assume that's why they are doing it and not overreacting to the short-term motion of the storm when every decent model has it in the gulf (and even most of the crappy ones).


I feel that sometimes when they do this, it causes people to become complacent when the next storm comes by. They may get one feeder band come through and say, "we've had thunderstorms worse then this". Then the next storm comes along and they are caught off guard.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Well not according to the 11am NHC coords, but whatever. Not going to argue about where they have it. Only looking at what the storm is doing. lol

Hey indianrg, good to see ya. I figured h crashed, but those that saw the graphic now what I am referring to.



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Quoting Charmeck:
PLEASE STOP WITH THE BULLETIN POSTS - ONCE OR MAYBE TWICE IS ENOUGH - WE'VE SEEN IT!
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I like this:

Results for Provo, TCI (21.78N, 72.27W):

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.7N, 74.2W or about 187.8 miles (302.2 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about and 20 minutes from now (Saturday, August 25 at 11:18AM EDT).

I do expect further heavy rain and some wind tonight from Isaac's trailing storms.
I have received about an inch so far.
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Actually now it looks abit too far west again! NHC seems to be guessing!!
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Good Morning Everyone..okay the TWC says that Isaac center is exposed and is just about to pass over the nearest tip of cuba..that sounds right?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
/End Center Argument.



I still think the vortex to the east of that looks more the part.
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NHC discussion running a tad late?

*modified* nevermind... got it :) digested it :)
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How is 97L doing I know we are looking Isaac but could it be up in the next two?
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188. HCW
Landfall is now Ft Walton Beach FL Tuesday 8pm winds 100mph from the 11AM NHC update
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
/End Center Argument.



Thank God!!!
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OK pinellas ..tropical storm watch issued for us up to tarpon springs
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PLEASE STOP WITH THE BULLETIN POSTS - ONCE OR MAYBE TWICE IS ENOUGH - WE'VE SEEN IT!
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09 GMT 08/25/12 19.0N 73.3W 60 992
15 GMT 08/25/12 20.1N 74.6W 60 998

The past 6 hours Isaac is back on course 310; 5 degrees south of NW
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
More late discussions.


Probably trying to figure out a way to word "Tampa and RNC under Tropical Storm Watch."
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Quoting E46Pilot:
Wow, overdoing it a bit there?

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF SEBASTIEN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH.


Thats because of the gradient primarily.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC NEAR EASTERN CUBA...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 74.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN
REEF
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER
EASTERN CUBA TODAY...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...AND MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND ISAAC IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...5 TO 7 FT
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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More late discussions.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
/End Center Argument.



And they look about spot on to me.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NHC already has the circulation inland. Interesting.

i think its too far west. it looks to be scraping eastern cuba not making a direct landfall
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NHC already has the circulation inland. Interesting.


Goes-14 1 minute scan. Zoom all the way in on the eastern tip of Cuba. Hard to argue with that.

Link
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/
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Quoting SykKid:


What are you talking about?
I'm talking about ignoring the obvious troll in the room :).
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Quoting E46Pilot:
Wow, overdoing it a bit there?

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF SEBASTIEN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH.


A lot of the time with big storms like this the winds on the coast can reach TS strength hundreds of miles away from the center. I assume that's why they are doing it and not overreacting to the short-term motion of the storm when every decent model has it in the gulf (and even most of the crappy ones).
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/End Center Argument.

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Quoting StormJunkie:


There is no recon in the storm now, that was hours ago...

Aussie, you have that graphic of the stick figure guy from the other night?


The tropical atlantic site did post that as a current update. Not sure why, glitch maybe? Easy oversight and why it's important to check the time stamp.
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Quoting katadman:


Worrisome, isn't it, Pottery? And it is only because the future of Isaac is becoming more clear. I didn't think we would get a firm handle on this storm until Sunday, which opinion I still hold. But it is evident now that it has survived the crossing of Haiti and almost certainly will overcome Cuba, as well.

God help all those poor souls in Haiti. There are many who are fighting a nightmarish battle for survival at this moment that most of us cannot even imagine.

So very True.
What a Sad Place .....
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather