Isaac pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac is pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains that are causing extremely dangerous flooding and landslides. Isaac's center passed over Haiti's southwest peninsula early this morning, tracking about 50 miles west of the capital of Port-au-Prince. As the center pulled away to the northwest, Isaac's heaviest thunderstorms moved ashore over Hispaniola near sunrise, and are now dumping heavy rains with rainfall rates approaching one inch per hour, according to recent microwave satellite estimates. Barahona on the south coast of the Dominican Republic had received 5.14" of rain as of 8 am EDT this morning, and it is probable that some mountainous areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already received up to 10" of rain from Isaac. These rains will continue though much of the day, and have the potential to cause high loss of life in Hispaniola.


Figure 1. A river north of Port-au-Prince, Haiti in flood due to rains from Isaac. Image from Amélie Baron via Twitter.

Latest observations
Isaac built a partial eyewall last night as the storm approached Haiti, but passage over the rough mountains of Haiti has destroyed the inner core, and the surface center of the storm is now fully exposed to view on satellite images. Radar out of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba shows no sign of an organized center, but does reveal some very intense thunderstorms affecting Eastern Cuba, Western Haiti, and nearby islands. Latest data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm that Isaac has weakened; during their penetration to obtain their 7:08 am EDT center fix, the aircraft reported top surface winds of 55 mph with their SFMR instrument, top flight-level winds at 5,000 feet of 68 mph, and a pressure rise of 3 mb, to 998 mb. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac remains a large and well-organized storm, though it lacks an inner core. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow is still good to the north, but is lacking elsewhere. An impressive large multi-day satellite animation of Isaac is available from the Navy Research Lab.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates estimated by the NOAA F-17 polar orbiting satellite at 6:21 am EDT August 25, 2012. Rainfall rates of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were occurring in a large area to the south of Hispaniola, and these heavy rains have now moved onshore. Image credit: Navy Research Laboratory.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are similar in spread to the previous set of runs. Our two best models, the GFS and ECMWF, are virtually on top of each other, with a landfall location in the Florida Panhandle between Fort Walton Beach and Panama City. It is likely that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north will not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and Isaac has the potential to drop torrential rains capable of causing serious flooding over the Southeast U.S. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model (Figure 3) calls for 10 - 15 inches of rain over portions of Georgia and South Carolina from Isaac. The ECMWF model, however, predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to the west after landfall, resulting in a slow motion across the Tennessee Valley into Arkansas by Friday. Arkansas is experiencing its worst drought in over 50 years, so the rains would be welcome there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Saturday August 25 to 2 am Sunday September 2, from the 2 am EDT August 25 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, and the Southeast U.S. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac survived passage over Hispaniola relatively intact. It's large size aided this, and this will also help it survive passage over Cuba today and Sunday. By the time Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits on Sunday, it will likely be a 50 mph tropical storm with a large, intact circulation. Isaac will be over very warm waters of 31°C (88°F) in the Florida Straits, wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern will feature an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, aiding its upper-level outflow. As I discussed in my previous post, Crossing Hispaniola and Cuba: a history, there have been five storms since 1900 with an intensity similar to Isaac, which crossed over both Haiti and Cuba, then emerged into the Florida Straits. These five storms strengthened by 5 - 20 mph in their first 24 hours after coming off the coast of Cuba. Given the relatively intact structure of Isaac so far, and the favorable conditions for intensification, I expect Isaac will intensify by 15 - 20 mph in 24 hours once the center moves off of the north coast of Cuba. If Isaac spends a full two days over water after passing the Florida Keys, it is possible that it will have enough time to develop a full eyewall and undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model is calling for Isaac to intensify to Category 2 strength, then weaken to Category 1 at landfall in Mississippi on Tuesday. The 06Z HWRF run is calling for landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Fort Walton Beach as a borderline Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The 5 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Isaac a 19% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Gulf. I expect these odds are too low, and that Isaac has a 40% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. I doubt the storm has much of a chance of hitting Category 4 or 5 status, though. While the surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, near 30 - 31°C, the total heat content of these waters is unusually low for this time of year. We got lucky with the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current this summer, as it did not shed a big warm eddy during the height of hurricane season, like happened in 2005 (I discuss this in my Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Tutorial.) Without the type of super-high heat energy we had in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in 2012 will have difficulty forming.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located about 350 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Monday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts moderate shear for the next 5 days over 97L, so some development is possible if 97L can fend off the dry air to its north. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that a tropical wave that has not yet emerged from the coast of Africa may develop next week, and potentially take a more westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.

The Weather Channel's hurricane expert, Brian Norcross, is now writing a blog on wunderground.com. For those of you unfamiliar with his background, here's an excerpt from his first post, from last night:

"This evening 20 years ago the sun set on the horrendous first day after Hurricane Andrew. I was in downtown Miami at the studios of the NBC station. We knew that there was "total" destruction in South Dade County, but even that didn't describe it. Here's to the people that went through it... and held their families together in a situation that most people can't imagine."

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. For the next few days, I plan to do the morning blog post, and Angela will be doing the late afternoon post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting katadman:


Worrisome, isn't it, Pottery? And it is only because the future of Isaac is becoming more clear. I didn't think we would get a firm handle on this storm until Sunday, which opinion I still hold. But it is evident now that it has survived the crossing of Haiti and almost certainly will overcome Cuba, as well.

God help all those poor souls in Haiti. There are many who are fighting a nightmarish battle for survival at this moment that most of us cannot even imagine.

So very True.
What a Sad Place .....
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
SJ you appear correct. Over Cuba now and will move NW over the rugged terrain.

? NHC coordinates say NO! Its off the coast.
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100 mph in Gulf according to NHC... fun!

Sarcasm Flag: ON
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
SJ you appear correct. Over Cuba now and will move NW over the rugged terrain.


Well not according to the 11am NHC coords, but whatever. Not going to argue about where they have it. Only looking at what the storm is doing. lol

Hey indianrg, good to see ya. I figured h crashed, but those that saw the graphic now what I am referring to.
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ROPICAL STORM ISAAC LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
857 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND HURRICANE
WATCH FOR MIAMI METRO AND COASTAL...

.NEW INFORMATION...
ADJUSTED STORM SURGE INFORMATION GULF COAST.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
COASTAL COLLIER...MAINLAND MONROE AND FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...INLAND MIAMI DADE...METRO MIAMI DADE AND
COASTAL MIAMI DADE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF GOLDEN BEACH AND
BISCAYNE BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
GLADES...HENDRY...INLAND PALM BEACH...METRO PALM BEACH...INLAND
COLLIER...INLAND BROWARD...METRO BROWARD...COASTAL PALM BEACH AND
COASTAL BROWARD.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.7N...LONGITUDE 73.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 580 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FL...OR ABOUT 670 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES
FL. STORM MOTION WAS NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. STORM INTENSITY
WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. TO
DO SO COULD RESULT IN BAD DECISIONS AND PLACE YOU OR THOSE YOU ARE
RESPONSIBLE FOR AT GREATER RISK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE OVERLY
SPECIFIC WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES.

A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE MAINLY FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MIAMI AT THIS TIME.
SHOULD THAT POTENTIAL BE REALIZED IT WOULD MATERIALIZE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEREFORE A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED
FOR THOSE AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO THE CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF RAIN BANDS TRAIN
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA AS ISAAC MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A
FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY
SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA, REGARDLESS OF STORM INTENSITY. WHILE A TORNADO
IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME, THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

VERY ROUGH SURF WILL IMPACT ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC BEACHES AS
ISAAC NEARS AND ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH
MONDAY. STRONG AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS... OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

ALL COASTAL AND MARINE INTERESTS IN WARNING AREAS SHOULD
COMPLETE PREPARATIONS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS NOW AND SECURE YOUR VESSEL
BEFORE LEAVING. BE SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE
OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS
OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO
YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. YOU
CAN ALSO GO TO READY.GOV, READYSOUTHFLORIDA.ORG,
FLORIDADISASTER.ORG, THE AMERICAN RED CROSS AT REDCROSS.ORG
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WEB SITE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI AROUND NOON...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

GMZ656-657-676-261300-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
857 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012
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Now that the storm is this far north it can now more strongly feel the weakness just east of Florida on the periphery of the Bermuda ridge as it continues to weaken!!!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


It just trucked over Haiti. A lot of storms flat out die, so no surprise it's looking rough. Steady intensification tomorrow, with no intensification today is my best bet.
I do think will see some intensification to day.Not much.
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Post 149....

LOLOL
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Bryan Norcross has a feature blog now here on WU. He started one last night and another new on this morning.

It will be great knowing his thoughts on these storms!

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162. DVG
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Entirely possible that it could be a weaker vortex that Isaac is spitting out. Had like 4 of those before it hit Cuba.


Yeah I think it is. Was out for a sec and am catching up. The RGB I believe really shows the true center. Isaac looks about 1.5 degree east of the waypoint now.
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CONE with new watches and warnings. I'm just south of Tarpon Springs, so my area in now under a Tropical Storm Watch.

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Wow, overdoing it a bit there?

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF SEBASTIEN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH.
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Recon should be out in 33 min or so.
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NHC already has the circulation inland. Interesting.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 25
Location: 20.1°N 74.6°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


Those coordinates are inside Cuba. Not over water.
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Thanks Dr. M. As noted by Dr. Nabb from NHC about an hour ago from NHC, the storm core has not had as much interaction with Haiti as originally forecast and could potentially skirt the Northern Coast of Cuba on the way towards the Keys. That little "jog" difference between Haiti and Cuba over the last 12 hours or so made a big difference for the storm (very little core disruption so far). We can only hope now, in the short term, that it will not intensify too much before impacting the Keys.

Unfortunately, the flood damage in Haiti-DR will only get worse in the coming hours because of the training effects from the bands. This is a real bad situation for them at the moment.
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Quoting HCW:
I might have another premature evacuation where is the 11Am disco ?




give them time
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Quoting StormJunkie:


There is no recon in the storm now, that was hours ago...

Aussie, you have that graphic of the stick figure guy from the other night?


I think Aussie went to bed SJ...
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Quoting Bamatracker:
Isaac looking a little rough right now. Really needs to get some moisture over its center again if it wants to intensify.

Link


It just trucked over Haiti. A lot of storms flat out die, so no surprise it's looking rough. Steady intensification tomorrow, with no intensification today is my best bet.
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TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
No matter where this sucker makes landfall - it ain't going to be pretty for 200+ mile radius!
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149. HCW
I might have another premature evacuation where is the 11Am disco ?
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Just as I expected, the tropical storm warnings were moved up to Sebastian Inlet.
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That was low level circulation (NHC) and it is on the tip of cuba....only diff is to me it seems to be slowing down some
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

Well there you go! That should clear things up! Sorry guys whoever said the center was crossing the coast of cuba!!


There is no recon in the storm now, that was hours ago...

Aussie, you have that graphic of the stick figure guy from the other night?
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144. Mikla
Look at RGB image and zoom into the SE tip of Cuba. Don't get distracted by the convection to the NE. You should see that the COC appears to be on track with the NHC forecast points...


Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

Well there you go! That should clear things up! Sorry guys whoever said the center was crossing the coast of cuba!!
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Isaac is wasting no time getting his act together.
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Quoting pottery:




All this agreeing with everyone is not usual, at all at all.
Isaac is doing Strange Things.....


Worrisome, isn't it, Pottery? And it is only because the future of Isaac is becoming more clear. I didn't think we would get a firm handle on this storm until Sunday, which opinion I still hold. But it is evident now that it has survived the crossing of Haiti and almost certainly will overcome Cuba, as well.

God help all those poor souls in Haiti. There are many who are fighting a nightmarish battle for survival at this moment that most of us cannot even imagine.
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going to be rain just like this for days, there is going to be severe flooding when this is all done..remember yesterday..the gator in the backyard? a very REAL possibility down there.............
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Quoting StormJunkie:


That is the MLC in that circle. The LLC is just outside your circle to the SW. Again, going to make a landfall likely between Cajobabo and Rio Seco, Cuba. Check those location in GE and then look at a 25 frame loop from the here.
Sorry it's taking me so long to respond, I'm trying to go through as many surface observations as I can and it still looks to me as if the circulation is nearer to 20N/74W. We'll see when Recon gets in there I assume.
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Quoting BoroDad17:


Read the remarks, it was a corrected observation. It was updated a few minutes ago, but the observation was taken at 10:39Z




ALL RIGHT YOU GUYS I GET IT NOW YOU GUYS DONT NEED TOO KEEP QUOTEING IT



whats move on i mess up so there
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Isaac looking a little rough right now. Really needs to get some moisture over its center again if it wants to intensify.

Link
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There you have it. Current latitude is 20.1N, moving NW at 17 mph.
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now forecasting a cat 2..
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

...CENTER OF ISAAC NEAR EASTERN CUBA...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 74.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST TO SEBASTIEN INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF SEBASTIEN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIEN INLET SOUTHWARD
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS AND CIENFUEGOS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO TARPON SPRINGS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A GENERAL
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER
EASTERN CUBA TODAY...NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT...AND MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND ISAAC IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ANDROS ISLAND ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL CUBA BY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
NORTHWESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN FLORIDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...5 TO 7 FT
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT
HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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1000mb steering:



990mb

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Based on the Super Rapid Scan visible SAT the best LLC location from what I can discern is on the tip of Cuba on the SE.

So it will have plenty of time over water in a little bit. Unless the LLC relocates further offshore a lot sooner
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:



By the way Jedkins I did not say Isaac was going to bounce all the way down the southern coast of Cuba mountain range, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened.... :).
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TS Watch in Jamaica discontinued for obvious reasons.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Hurricane Hunters confirm that the center of Tropical Storm Isaac remains between Haiti and Cuba in the Windward Passage, and most importantly, unless there is a significant wobble or change to the west, the center will completely miss Cuba and remain over water.

Well there you go! That should clear things up! Sorry guys whoever said the center was crossing the coast of cuba!!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



not its not Updated on our site 6 minutes ago


Read the remarks, it was a corrected observation. It was updated a few minutes ago, but the observation was taken at 10:39Z
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with this current movement how is it gonna miss getting a big chunk of fl and go into the gulf
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11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 25
Location: 20.1°N 74.6°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
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Quoting pottery:

See the last item, bottom of list.


Thanks.

It was almost too obvious really... Lol
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All the models have it moving North of Cuba into da gulf.....all of em'.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
Hurricane Hunters confirm that the center of Tropical Storm Isaac remains between Haiti and Cuba in the Windward Passage, and most importantly, unless there is a significant wobble or change to the west, the center will completely miss Cuba and remain over water.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Nope. The LLC is very close to making landfall in Cuba right this minute. Does that LLC die over the mountains and the MLC take over? Maybe. But it would take an MLC a little time to rebuild a LLC.
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Advisory in, winds at 60mph, pressure same. Isaac now forecasted to become a Category 2 in the gulf.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather