Isaac pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2012

Tropical Storm Isaac is pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with torrential rains that are causing extremely dangerous flooding and landslides. Isaac's center passed over Haiti's southwest peninsula early this morning, tracking about 50 miles west of the capital of Port-au-Prince. As the center pulled away to the northwest, Isaac's heaviest thunderstorms moved ashore over Hispaniola near sunrise, and are now dumping heavy rains with rainfall rates approaching one inch per hour, according to recent microwave satellite estimates. Barahona on the south coast of the Dominican Republic had received 5.14" of rain as of 8 am EDT this morning, and it is probable that some mountainous areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already received up to 10" of rain from Isaac. These rains will continue though much of the day, and have the potential to cause high loss of life in Hispaniola.


Figure 1. A river north of Port-au-Prince, Haiti in flood due to rains from Isaac. Image from Amélie Baron via Twitter.

Latest observations
Isaac built a partial eyewall last night as the storm approached Haiti, but passage over the rough mountains of Haiti has destroyed the inner core, and the surface center of the storm is now fully exposed to view on satellite images. Radar out of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba shows no sign of an organized center, but does reveal some very intense thunderstorms affecting Eastern Cuba, Western Haiti, and nearby islands. Latest data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters confirm that Isaac has weakened; during their penetration to obtain their 7:08 am EDT center fix, the aircraft reported top surface winds of 55 mph with their SFMR instrument, top flight-level winds at 5,000 feet of 68 mph, and a pressure rise of 3 mb, to 998 mb. Infrared and visible satellite loops show that Isaac remains a large and well-organized storm, though it lacks an inner core. An analysis of upper level winds from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS shows that upper-level outflow is still good to the north, but is lacking elsewhere. An impressive large multi-day satellite animation of Isaac is available from the Navy Research Lab.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates estimated by the NOAA F-17 polar orbiting satellite at 6:21 am EDT August 25, 2012. Rainfall rates of 1 inch per hour (orange colors) were occurring in a large area to the south of Hispaniola, and these heavy rains have now moved onshore. Image credit: Navy Research Laboratory.

Latest model runs for Isaac
The latest set of 0Z and 06Z (8 pm and 2 am EDT) model runs are similar in spread to the previous set of runs. Our two best models, the GFS and ECMWF, are virtually on top of each other, with a landfall location in the Florida Panhandle between Fort Walton Beach and Panama City. It is likely that the trough of low pressure pulling Isaac to the north will not be strong enough to pull Isaac all the way to the northeast and out to sea, and Isaac has the potential to drop torrential rains capable of causing serious flooding over the Southeast U.S. The latest 8-day precipitation forecast from the GFS model (Figure 3) calls for 10 - 15 inches of rain over portions of Georgia and South Carolina from Isaac. The ECMWF model, however, predicts that a ridge of high pressure will build in and force Isaac to the west after landfall, resulting in a slow motion across the Tennessee Valley into Arkansas by Friday. Arkansas is experiencing its worst drought in over 50 years, so the rains would be welcome there.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 8-day period from 2 am Saturday August 25 to 2 am Sunday September 2, from the 2 am EDT August 25 run of the GFS model. This model is predicting a wide swath of 5 - 10 inches of rain (orange colors) will affect portions of Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas, and the Southeast U.S. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP.

Intensity forecast for Isaac
Isaac survived passage over Hispaniola relatively intact. It's large size aided this, and this will also help it survive passage over Cuba today and Sunday. By the time Isaac pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits on Sunday, it will likely be a 50 mph tropical storm with a large, intact circulation. Isaac will be over very warm waters of 31°C (88°F) in the Florida Straits, wind shear will be light to moderate, and the upper-level wind pattern will feature an upper-level anticyclone over the storm, aiding its upper-level outflow. As I discussed in my previous post, Crossing Hispaniola and Cuba: a history, there have been five storms since 1900 with an intensity similar to Isaac, which crossed over both Haiti and Cuba, then emerged into the Florida Straits. These five storms strengthened by 5 - 20 mph in their first 24 hours after coming off the coast of Cuba. Given the relatively intact structure of Isaac so far, and the favorable conditions for intensification, I expect Isaac will intensify by 15 - 20 mph in 24 hours once the center moves off of the north coast of Cuba. If Isaac spends a full two days over water after passing the Florida Keys, it is possible that it will have enough time to develop a full eyewall and undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The latest 06Z (2 am EDT) run of the GFDL model is calling for Isaac to intensify to Category 2 strength, then weaken to Category 1 at landfall in Mississippi on Tuesday. The 06Z HWRF run is calling for landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Fort Walton Beach as a borderline Category 2 or 3 hurricane. The 5 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast gave Isaac a 19% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Gulf. I expect these odds are too low, and that Isaac has a 40% chance of becoming a Category 2 or stronger hurricane in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. I doubt the storm has much of a chance of hitting Category 4 or 5 status, though. While the surface waters in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm, near 30 - 31°C, the total heat content of these waters is unusually low for this time of year. We got lucky with the Gulf of Mexico Loop Current this summer, as it did not shed a big warm eddy during the height of hurricane season, like happened in 2005 (I discuss this in my Gulf of Mexico Loop Current Tutorial.) Without the type of super-high heat energy we had in 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico, Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico in 2012 will have difficulty forming.

Invest 97L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 97L) is located about 350 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. The storm has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is under moderate wind shear. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L a 30% chance of developing by Monday morning. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts moderate shear for the next 5 days over 97L, so some development is possible if 97L can fend off the dry air to its north. None of the reliable models foresee that 97L will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, both the GFS and ECMWF models predict that a tropical wave that has not yet emerged from the coast of Africa may develop next week, and potentially take a more westward track towards the Lesser Antilles.

The Weather Channel's hurricane expert, Brian Norcross, is now writing a blog on wunderground.com. For those of you unfamiliar with his background, here's an excerpt from his first post, from last night:

"This evening 20 years ago the sun set on the horrendous first day after Hurricane Andrew. I was in downtown Miami at the studios of the NBC station. We knew that there was "total" destruction in South Dade County, but even that didn't describe it. Here's to the people that went through it... and held their families together in a situation that most people can't imagine."

Angela Fritz will have a new post here by 6 pm EDT. For the next few days, I plan to do the morning blog post, and Angela will be doing the late afternoon post.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 121 - 71

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Advisory in, winds at 60mph, pressure same. Isaac now forecasted to become a Category 2 in the gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i noted this from the nhc site


Video briefings and audio podcasts regarding Isaac will begin at 11am EDT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I haven`t see the news yet but I hope Haiti didn`t suffer a lot with this storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


That's an old vortex message that was just corrected. Dunno what they changed though.

I think they updated the pressure to 1000mb.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
117. wpb
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Hurricane Hunters confirm that the center of Tropical Storm Isaac remains between Haiti and Cuba in the Windward Passage, and most importantly, unless there is a significant wobble or change to the west, the center will completely miss Cuba and remain over water.
old old old no recon in the area since this morning early morning 5am
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
new Vortex updated 3 miuntes a go



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 14:35Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 10:39:00Z

Look at the time, 10:39z=6:39AM est


EDIT: Sorry, see this was already posted
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


That's an old vortex message that was just corrected. Dunno what they changed though.

See the last item, bottom of list.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My wife just got done telling me that I'm down playing this a bit. We are in Gautier MS which is 30 miles from Mobile AL. Should we be worried about Isaac. I mean run after run the most reliable models take this system east of Pensacola. The official NHC forecast follow this logic as well and the close we get to next week IMO the more sure I feel that we will not feel other than heavy rains with Isaac over here. My prayers and thoughts to the ppl pf Haiti and I will keep Florida in my prayers as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
may be that is old then hmmmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Well then...



Nope. The LLC is very close to making landfall in Cuba right this minute. Does that LLC die over the mountains and the MLC take over? Maybe. But it would take an MLC a little time to rebuild a LLC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning all

thanks for update doc good read with my morning coffee

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

about that "current" vortex message---isn't it way past 10:39Z?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmobilejim:

It's not on google earth. Where do you get these from?


That Vortex message says it's from Mission 14. That was an old Air Force mission, the last one to pass through Isaac. No planes are in Isaac right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hurricane Hunters confirm that the center of Tropical Storm Isaac remains between Haiti and Cuba in the Windward Passage, and most importantly, unless there is a significant wobble or change to the west, the center will completely miss Cuba and remain over water.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
new Vortex updated 3 miuntes a go



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 14:35Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 10:39:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°32'N 73°36'W (19.5333N 73.6W)
B. Center Fix Location: 107 miles (173 km) to the NW (310°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,055m (10,023ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 124° at 55kts (From between the ESE and SE at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NNE (24°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:17:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
INBOUND TEMP RAIN COOLED, COR FOR MET ACCURACY


That's an old vortex message that was just corrected. Dunno what they changed though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



From 6:39 AM EDT this morning.



not its not Updated on our site 6 minutes ago
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



From 6:39 AM EDT this morning.


Ah !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
People are arguing over where the center of Isaac is? Wha???


Sarcasm Flag: ON
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
101. hercj
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Thank you Dr. Masters.

RP:

I don't believe so; fixate your eyes on the lower-level cloud deck and you'll see the surface circulation basically on the southeastern tip of the Cuban coast. I doubt that Isaac will spend anymore than 45 minutes to an hour over mainland, if not just a scrape along the coast.

MH let me ask you a question. Using the NHC's positions at 0900Z and 1200Z this system is going to have to go along way west in order to end up on the forecast track. Do you see this happening since it looks to me that it wont so anything but graze Cuba?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12)
Updated on our site 9 minutes ago


19.5333N 73.6W

"No Cuba For You"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
69. Where did that come from? I don't see a bird in the air.



then hit Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12)

wish was this updated not too long a go


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GetReal:


thanks for the great input to the blog SJ... How many times in the past have we seen storms bounce along to the south of those Cuban mountains... The storms usuaaly then bounce NW to the other side of Cuba once they pass that mountain range... IMO these may happen with Isaac.


Morning GR, and yes we have seen it quite a few times. Some survive, most don't. I am not saying Isaac needs a nail in its coffin. I am simply saying that it is at a very critical and tough part of its life cycle. Once it gets off the Coast this afternoon, we will begin to see what kind of fortitude the system has and how it will recover.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well then...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
new Vortex updated 3 miuntes a go



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 14:35Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 10:39:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°32'N 73°36'W (19.5333N 73.6W)
B. Center Fix Location: 107 miles (173 km) to the NW (310°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,055m (10,023ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 124° at 55kts (From between the ESE and SE at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NNE (24°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:17:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
INBOUND TEMP RAIN COOLED, COR FOR MET ACCURACY



From 6:39 AM EDT this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ILwthrfan:


But can he survive Cuba? His center needs to stay on the north shore IMO to be able to survive that track.


Isaac's center is already through the channel
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MiamiHurricanes observation is correct, I wouldn't expect Isaac's COC to spend much time over Cuba, the coastal areas should be about it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93. wpb
Quoting IceCoast:
Eye"s" visible on Radar out of Okinawa. Awesome storm to watch while Isaac is in a momentary rut.

an outter rainband has more power than the best of issac
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmobilejim:

It's not on google earth. Where do you get these from?



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting peterj:


Brain Norcross become a hero to many during Hurricane Andrew. Check out this footage from Andrew in the studios back in 1992. The studio is now gone and has been replace with by a Federal Courthouse.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ma3r-zhny3k
Do you know when he will be on or just popping in and out. Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
new Vortex updated 3 miuntes a go



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 14:35Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 10:39:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°32'N 73°36'W (19.5333N 73.6W)
B. Center Fix Location: 107 miles (173 km) to the NW (310°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,055m (10,023ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 124° at 55kts (From between the ESE and SE at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NNE (24°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:17:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
INBOUND TEMP RAIN COOLED, COR FOR MET ACCURACY

It's not on google earth. Where do you get these from?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GetReal:
I have eaten some crow appetizers over the last 18 hours regarding Isaac, but currently the COC appears to benear 19.9N and 74.5W and is currently tracking west along the southern SE Cuban coast.




I can't help but giggle at posts like this when your name on this site is "GetReal".

;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
69. Where did that come from? I don't see a bird in the air.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see the center just south of the extreme SE tip of Cuba.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:




All this agreeing with everyone is not usual, at all at all.
Isaac is doing Strange Things.....


Very true.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey Isaac you can park over D.C as a weak storm.We really need the rain and wouldn't mind having a day or two of rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
new Vortex updated 3 miuntes a go



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 14:35Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 10:39:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°32'N 73°36'W (19.5333N 73.6W)
B. Center Fix Location: 107 miles (173 km) to the NW (310°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,055m (10,023ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 124° at 55kts (From between the ESE and SE at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NNE (24°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:17:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
INBOUND TEMP RAIN COOLED, COR FOR MET ACCURACY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Will Levi be here today?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AAPLTrader:
Can anyone post MJO chart now.Would like to know
if we are in an upward phase --aiding Isaac's development or downward phase.


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
new Vortex updated 3 miuntes a go



Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 14:35Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 14
Observation Number: 21
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 10:39:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°32'N 73°36'W (19.5333N 73.6W)
B. Center Fix Location: 107 miles (173 km) to the NW (310°) from Port-au-Prince, Haiti.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,055m (10,023ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (351°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 124° at 55kts (From between the ESE and SE at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NNE (24°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,044m (9,987ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:17:30Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
INBOUND TEMP RAIN COOLED, COR FOR MET ACCURACY

The Center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, the circulation is without a doubt losing a slight bit of organization, but that shouldn't necessarily come as a surprise because we knew that it was going to suffer in this region. I think the main thing we should be looking at is the fact the it will not be spending more than an hour or two, if that, over Cuban mainland that could further disrupt the circulation and cause a vertical tilt.



I personally think that the main thing we should take out of this today is the fact it is maintaining a decent structure with a good ULAC centered over it, slightly misplaced. Storms always fade when they reach Cuba. Isaac has the advantage that storms like Emily 2011, and Ernesto 2006 didn't have - being a massive cyclone. Look at its wind field for example.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, the circulation is without a doubt losing a slight bit of organization, but that shouldn't necessarily come as a surprise because we knew that it was going to suffer in this region. I think the main thing we should be looking at is the fact the it will not be spending more than an hour or two, if that, over Cuban mainland that could further disrupt the circulation and cause a vertical tilt.



That is the MLC in that circle. The LLC is just outside your circle to the SW. Again, going to make a landfall likely between Cajobabo and Rio Seco, Cuba. Check those location in GE and then look at a 25 frame loop from the here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:


The LLC is just off the coast between Cajobabo and Rio Seco. The mid-level circulation is slightly to the NW of that. Not perfectly stacked. Now go look at the mountains in that area.

Again, the way it looks now was to be expected, and no it would not take a lot for him to recover if/when he gets off the Cuban Coast and in to the Atl/Straits. But right now he is limping along and just trying to hold it all together.


thanks for the great input to the blog SJ... How many times in the past have we seen storms bounce along to the south of those Cuban mountains... The storms usuaaly then bounce NW to the other side of Cuba once they pass that mountain range... IMO these may happen with Isaac.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The VDM should finish any back and forth. Isaac may not even touch Cuba.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
75. SLU
25/1200 UTC 12.8N 30.4W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic
25/1145 UTC 19.9N 73.6W T3.0/3.0 ISAAC -- Atlantic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
74. 7544
local mets are sayin a plane is in issac and found a 88pmh wind hmmmmmm

andros is change to a huricane watch

could the ts warn change to hur watch next in so fl at 11 am
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, the circulation is without a doubt losing a slight bit of organization, but that shouldn't necessarily come as a surprise because we knew that it was going to suffer in this region. I think the main thing we should be looking at is the fact the it will not be spending more than an hour or two, if that, over Cuban mainland that could further disrupt the circulation and cause a vertical tilt.

oh ya, the circulation took a beating but it didnt get destroyed. the outlfow it still great and once it gets north of cuba it will start taking care of buisness like it did before making landfall in hati
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
This also proof that people tropics chat was being trolled yesterday.If Jim Cantori dos join WU then Doc will let us know.


WU get trolled? No way! LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ok, so now I'm convinced that Louisiana is out of the dangers zone. After reading this blog by Dr. Masters it seems that a strike, whether it be a Cat. 1 or 2 will be focused near the FL Panhandle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 121 - 71

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather