About Jeff Masters
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
By: Angela Fritz , 9:37 PM GMT on August 25, 2012
This afternoon, Isaac remains a tropical storm with little change in intensity as it moves northwest along the northern coast of Cuba, with winds of 60 mph. The storm's center is currently skirting the northern coast of southeast Cuba over the state of Holgiun. There is a hurricane hunter mission currently flying through the storm. The hurricane hunter mission and recent satellite images show that Isaac has maintained its core circulation, providing a launching point for new thunderstorm activity to develop. Isaac's strongest thunderstorms, which were on the southeast side of the storm just south of Hispaniola, have weakened somewhat this afternoon, as stronger thunderstorms begin to develop north of Cuba. A new burst of convection above the storm's center of circulation also began this afternoon. Upper level outflow is strong on the north and northeast side of the storm, though is weak and disorganized on the south and southwest. Wind shear around the storm remains 10-20 knots.
Figure 1. Satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Isaac as it moves northwest along the northern coast of Cuba on Saturday afternoon.
Impacts:
Heavy rain continues over Hispaniola this afternoon as the center of Isaac moves away from Haiti. Once person is confirmed dead in Haiti today as a result of Isaac and its torrential rain and flash flooding, though there are reports that up to three are dead in the earthquake and cyclone-ravaged state. Rainfall totals up to 12 inches are possible in Hispaniola when it's all said and done, with local amounts up to 20 inches, especially in the higher elevations of the mountains. Thousands of people have been displaced due to damage to their less-than-substantial tent structures, and schools and other more sturdy buildings have been opened for shelter while the storm continues to produce heavy rainfall over Hispaniola. Rain has begun to fall in the Florida Keys as the storm's far northern thunderstorm activity moves toward the state. Governor Rick Scott has declared a state of emergency for the entire state of Florida in preparation for the impacts of Isaac. The Republican National Convention has at least one attendee backing out so far: Alabama governor Robert Bentley has decided to stay in-state as Isaac approaches. Vice President Joe Biden has also canceled his trip to Tampa which was scheduled for next week alongside the Convention. Amtrak has also shut down part of their Silver Service line from Miami to Orlando.
Track forecast:
The GFS and CMC are favoring a track to the Mississippi/Alabama border this afternoon, while the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF are all forecasting tracks into the Florida Panhandle. The National Hurricane Center is in agreement with the latter forecast, though it's important not to focus on the center of the forecast track. Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to continue to skirt the northern coast of Cuba throughout the rest of Saturday, at which point it will cross the Florida Keys likely on Sunday, late afternoon. From there, Isaac is expected to move northwest until Tuesday when it will make a slight turn to the north. Landfall in the models has been coming sooner and sooner over the past few days, and is now expected Tuesday evening.
Intensity forecast:
In addition to the warm water that Isaac will continue to traverse over the next few days, recent model runs suggest that when Isaac leaves Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico, it will be in an environment favorable for intensification. Both the GFS and the ECMWF have been forecasting a large upper level anti-cyclone, or "high," over Isaac as it tracks north through the Gulf. Also, surrounding the upper level high, there are several upper level "lows," that could act to siphon this air away from the storm quickly. These features would provide strong ventilation of the storm, which will likely enhance intensification. The GFDL and the HWRF are in agreement this afternoon that Isaac is likely to reach or come very close category 2 hurricane strength with winds around 95 mph by the time the storm reaches the northern Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Isaac to reach category 2 status by 2pm EDT on Tuesday. Given the evidence, I agree with this, and will go a step further to say that a major hurricane (category 3+) is not out of the question, nor is a rapid intensification. Lots of uncertainty remains as Isaac treks across northern Cuba. So many things depend on what form this storm will be in once it leaves that coast for the warm Gulf of Mexico waters.
Portlight gears up for Isaac
Our friends at Portlight Strategies are gearing up for Isaac as we speak. From their blog this afternoon: "John Wilbanks, a long time Portlight member and instrumental in many of the things we do will be heading to Panama City tomorrow afternoon along with a team from Yankee 1, a relief organization made up of retired miltary to provide relief services and SAR if that becomes necessary. John's website, Stormjunkie.com, will be streaming video of operations in the strike zone; you can see what Portlight's teams are doing here. We are also reaching out to the disability community in Haiti and rekindling old relationshps there in the aftermath of Isaac's passage of that island. With over 300,000 still displaced after the earthquake of two years ago, the need there will be great."
You can donate to Portlight's disaster relief fund here.
I also wrote a somewhat applicable blog this morning about model uncertainty in hurricane forecasting.
Angela
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
5673. OracleDeAtlantis
6:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2012This could be taken several ways, but I would not ignore the interpretation that whenever we get to the name "Kirk," something big will happen, somehow linked to the Trail of Tears.
There's also one man that most Americans think of when they hear the name "Kirk." Considering that the real life "Kirk" died yesterday, this raises my concerns.
5672. midgulfmom
5:47 PM GMT on August 26, 20125671. midgulfmom
5:43 PM GMT on August 26, 20125670. hydrus
5:12 PM GMT on August 26, 20125669. leftlink
4:45 PM GMT on August 26, 20125668. weatherganny
4:43 PM GMT on August 26, 2012How strong is that???
5667. weatherganny
4:37 PM GMT on August 26, 2012Buna texas???
5666. RayT
4:34 PM GMT on August 26, 2012yeah, as far as tropical cyclones go, this one has been one of the more challenging to predict.
5665. tomas5tex
4:34 PM GMT on August 26, 2012Buna here also
5664. Maineweatherguy20023
4:16 PM GMT on August 26, 2012Irene was 2011 2005 and 1999
5663. txtwister78
4:15 PM GMT on August 26, 20125662. LaHeaven
4:10 PM GMT on August 26, 2012The 10:00 conf call with the NWS in Lake Charles advised the following:
TS Isaac is just south of the FLorida Keys. There is a HC hunter aircraft on the way to get updates. Isaac will probably drift further to the west and possibly make landfall in SE Louisiana Wednesday Morning. It may become a hurricane by late afternoon today.
Now is a good time to get prepared
5661. Maineweatherguy20023
4:03 PM GMT on August 26, 2012If its doin the=is well near land i hate to think what it will be hundreds of miles from land...
5660. Chiggy
4:02 PM GMT on August 26, 20125659. AtHomeInTX
4:02 PM GMT on August 26, 20125658. OviedoDuchess
3:59 PM GMT on August 26, 2012Excellent list of food choices...only one thing to add. During Charlie, found Wolfgang Puck coffee in cans that had heating capacity. A little pricey but a fresh cup of joe in the aftermath, priceless! And don't underestimate the value of bug spray - sooner or later, you'll have to come out of the pool, even if you have a snorkle and the skeeters will be waiting for you! thanks for the list.
5657. AtHomeInTX
3:59 PM GMT on August 26, 20125656. TallyWeather15
3:59 PM GMT on August 26, 20125655. AtHomeInTX
3:57 PM GMT on August 26, 20125654. STXHurricanes2012
3:57 PM GMT on August 26, 2012??
5653. GeoffreyWPB
3:56 PM GMT on August 26, 20125652. Bielle
3:56 PM GMT on August 26, 2012A little wet out your way, Grothar?
5651. breald
3:56 PM GMT on August 26, 20125650. leftlink
3:56 PM GMT on August 26, 20125649. entrelac
3:54 PM GMT on August 26, 2012Lessons were learned during Rita that should smooth the process out, if necessary. Lessons like who needs to evacuate and who doesn't. The coast needs to get out but everyone else needs to stay put and ride it out.
5648. Stormchaser121
3:54 PM GMT on August 26, 201278 hrs
5647. mobilebayal
3:54 PM GMT on August 26, 20125646. gustaveye
3:53 PM GMT on August 26, 2012the cone should include the gfs and euro models....you are saying they are 300 miles apart, but that entire area in the cone.....DUHHHHHHH
5645. yonzabam
3:53 PM GMT on August 26, 2012Quite possibly. I've seen storms go over TCHP hot spots without intensifying. Maybe it's a more significant factor for storms that are already very strong. High TCHP means the water is warm at depth. Strong storms stir up deeper, colder water to the surface and this acts as a natural breaking mechanism, limiting the hurricane's strength. High TCHP would mean that this breaking mechanism was less effective.
5644. Stormchaser121
3:52 PM GMT on August 26, 201260 hrs
5642. Stoopid1
3:51 PM GMT on August 26, 2012Different scenario, but I vividly remember the day Charley came through. Right before I went to the store it had him going to Tampa and Jax as a 115 mph cat 3. Right as I come home, he's up to 145 mph and ended up going to Port Charlotte, Orlando, and Port Orange(where I lived at the time). Even toward the end, it's hard to say what a hurricane will do.
5641. ILwthrfan
3:51 PM GMT on August 26, 2012You think Cuba is still hampering the system. Or is it the dry air at the 500mb level in the gulf that the storm has untrained. It does seem to have the appearance that dry air is limiting the thunderstorms a bit? Maybe when it gets a bit more distance away from both Florida and Cuba inflow of moisture will be richer. Storm might be able to intensify better. Still looks if he still trying to finish building his CDO. After that happens, then we could possible see RI?
5640. Matt1989
3:50 PM GMT on August 26, 20125639. southfla
3:50 PM GMT on August 26, 2012I find it absolutely hilarious that you go to extreme measures to keep the ice cream in your freezer frozen, but you never board up your house. Then you have the nerve to pillory your neighbor because they lost their roof due to a crack open garage door. Nearly every person on the edge of Andrew who lost their roofs did so because they did not board their windows. You have just gotten lucky. May your luck hold out.
5638. forecaster1
3:50 PM GMT on August 26, 20125636. AtHomeInTX
3:50 PM GMT on August 26, 20125635. Hhunter
3:50 PM GMT on August 26, 20125634. bappit
3:50 PM GMT on August 26, 2012I wouldn't doubt that is choreographed.
5633. splash3392
3:50 PM GMT on August 26, 20125632. jpsb
3:49 PM GMT on August 26, 20125631. SETexas74
3:49 PM GMT on August 26, 2012Depends on how many people leave, certainly would be a mess though
5630. CJ5
3:49 PM GMT on August 26, 2012He finally has convection wrapping around on all sides. Good news for the keys but he has a lot of open water and some favorable conditions ahead.
5629. Caner
3:49 PM GMT on August 26, 2012Got a link to it?
5628. MiamiHurricanes09
3:49 PM GMT on August 26, 20125627. snow2fire
3:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2012It does't take a cat3 to cause problems.
5626. treehuggingsister
3:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2012I'll never forget: At 6 o'clock Wednesday evening, Pensacola was still being told Ivan was "going to Biloxi"... a couple hours later, NOT!
5625. angiest
3:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2012Depends on if people panic or not. For Rita, people had images of Katrina fresh in their heads. Ike was smooth enough I don't think they opened any of the evaculanes (improved shoulders) or activated the contraflow that were all constructed after Rita.
5624. Stormchaser121
3:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2012idk
5623. Gorty
3:48 PM GMT on August 26, 2012He's still too close to Cuba and FL to intensify much right now imo.
I could be wrong though.