About Jeff Masters
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012
Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.
Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
772. Grothar
771. Hurricanes101
Organized tropical convection + closed and well-defined low level circulation + persistance = a tropical cyclone
It is not padding stats if it fits the criteria
770. stormpetrol
769. Hurricanes101
you just proved our point, you compared Ana to Isaac - and they are nothing alike.
Ana was not a classified system when it impacted Florida, Isaac was
you are contradicting yourself
768. AussieStorm
I can' see it??? Where am I meant to be looking? which puffy white cloud did they designate? I'm confused!!!!
767. washingtonian115
766. bassis
+1
765. FL1980
It's still padding stats. This system will effect nobody and paints a different picture as to how active a season really is. About half of the named systems this year were either home grown, sub-tropical or lasted all of about 36 hours.
764. JrWeathermanFL
763. Thing342
Go away.
762. Hurricanes101
BRB
761. washingtonian115
760. weatherh98
jose
759. WeatherNerdPR
Rain, wind, flooding, power outages. Those are the significant impacts to be expected from a TS.
758. MAweatherboy1
Lol, jk.
757. midgulfmom
756. JrWeathermanFL
That aint significant
755. Hurricanes101
Exactly
754. Hurricanes101
Joyce deserved to get its name too
so sorry, but not every tropical system blooms into a hurricane
753. washingtonian115
752. AussieStorm
Mate, if she was organised and tropical it would of been still classified as a TS or TD.
751. Grothar
Large, strong storm moving a little erratically North. should move a little west, then resume North motion then Northeast. Remnants of Isaac will move into the Eastern Gulf and most likely move into Central or Southern Florida. Unknown what the strength will be, probably winds and heavy rain. Will know more later.
750. weatherh98
ya
749. Hurricanes101
Organized tropical convection + closed and well-defined low level circulation + persistance = a tropical cyclone
748. stormpetrol
about 8 hours but at a slow crawl pretty accurate.
747. LostTomorrows
John and Joyce, the "J" stands for "jumping the gun" on being an adequate tropical cyclone. =P
746. trHUrrIXC5MMX
I though it was just plain like Florida
745. trHUrrIXC5MMX
Bermuda is gonna be swept clean....lol... that was funny...
I hope it does not happen... look at the predicted size of that storm...there are going to be high waves hitting the island.
744. weatherh98
how did coral make that?
743. Hurricanes101
you are aware that some had over 15 inches of rain due to Isaac in South Florida? some lost their homes and some are without power
guess that isn't significant enough for you
742. JrWeathermanFL
I never said she was still considered a TS or TD by the NHC.
I just said she was organized and tropical...
741. Tazmanian
A seaman meets a pirate in a bar, and talk turns to their adventures on the sea. The seaman notes that the pirate has a peg-leg, a hook, and an eye patch.
The seaman asks, "So, how did you end up with the peg-leg?" The pirate replies, "We were in a storm at sea, and I was swept overboard into a school of sharks. Just as my men were pulling me out, a shark bit my leg off."
"Wow!" said the seaman. "What about your hook"? "Well", replied the pirate, "We were boarding an enemy ship and were battling the other sailors with swords. One of the enemy cut my hand off."
"Incredible!" remarked the seaman. "How did you get the eye patch"? "A seagull dropping fell into my eye," replied the pirate.
"You lost your eye to a seagull dropping?," the sailor asked incredulously. "Well," said the pirate, "it was my first day with my hook
740. JLPR2
Highest point is 249 ft, but there will definitely be some serious beach erosion.
739. stormpetrol
738. trHUrrIXC5MMX
can this storm be any bigger????
737. AussieStorm
Keep digging your hole.
Maybe you should of said this one....
Taz stay on topic please.
736. FL1980
735. Tazmanian
A brain walks into a bar and says, "I'll have a pint of beer please."
The barman looks at him and says "Sorry, I can't serve you."
"Why not?" askes the brain.
"You're already out of your head.
734. JLPR2
Maybe the convection/MLC has been pulling the LLC towards it.
733. JrWeathermanFL
732. washingtonian115
731. MAweatherboy1
Not much of a surprise there... I don't think John has had convection over his center at all during his brief time as a TS.
730. weatherh98
is bermuda even 30 feet high?
729. Hurricanes101
yup it was Claudette
728. Tazmanian
The number twelve goes to a bar
A number twelve walks into a bar and asks the barman for a pint of beer.
"Sorry I can't serve you," states the barman.
"Why not?!" asks the number twelve with anger showing in its voice.
"You're under 18," replies the barman
727. JrWeathermanFL
So thunderstorms are significant impact?
726. washingtonian115
725. AussieStorm
He did say
He didn't specify landfall or effect/impact. The circulation of Isaac hit Florida. He might as well say Isaac didn't hit the Leeward Islands also.
724. Hurricanes101
lol no she wasn't, Ana fell apart and was not a tropical cyclone when she impacted Florida
Isaac on the other hand, was
723. JLPR2
I agree. Maybe ASCAT will give us a good look at the circulation in a little while. I hope. :\
722. wxchaser97
I guess this is pretty pointless as landfall or not the impacts were the same.