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Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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772. Grothar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
771. Hurricanes101
Quoting FL1980:



It's still padding stats. This system will effect nobody and paints a different picture as to how active a season really is. About half of the named systems this year were either home grown, sub-tropical or lasted all of about 36 hours.


Organized tropical convection + closed and well-defined low level circulation + persistance = a tropical cyclone

It is not padding stats if it fits the criteria
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
770. stormpetrol
Kinda surprised the area around 11/35 wasn't mentioned at 8 pm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
769. Hurricanes101
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
If everything tropical was a TS or TD, then tropical moisture would be named.


you just proved our point, you compared Ana to Isaac - and they are nothing alike.

Ana was not a classified system when it impacted Florida, Isaac was

you are contradicting yourself
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
768. AussieStorm
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
OMG, the NHC classified this?!?!?



Lol, jk.

I can' see it??? Where am I meant to be looking? which puffy white cloud did they designate? I'm confused!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
767. washingtonian115
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

That aint significant
SMDH.Are you joking?.Nahh you must be..you have to be..right?.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
766. bassis
Quoting Tazmanian:
A pirate at the local bar discusses his past
A seaman meets a pirate in a bar, and talk turns to their adventures on the sea. The seaman notes that the pirate has a peg-leg, a hook, and an eye patch.

The seaman asks, "So, how did you end up with the peg-leg?" The pirate replies, "We were in a storm at sea, and I was swept overboard into a school of sharks. Just as my men were pulling me out, a shark bit my leg off."

"Wow!" said the seaman. "What about your hook"? "Well", replied the pirate, "We were boarding an enemy ship and were battling the other sailors with swords. One of the enemy cut my hand off."

"Incredible!" remarked the seaman. "How did you get the eye patch"? "A seagull dropping fell into my eye," replied the pirate.

"You lost your eye to a seagull dropping?," the sailor asked incredulously. "Well," said the pirate, "it was my first day with my hook



+1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
765. FL1980
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Organized tropical convection + closed and well-defined low level circulation + persistance = a tropical cyclone



It's still padding stats. This system will effect nobody and paints a different picture as to how active a season really is. About half of the named systems this year were either home grown, sub-tropical or lasted all of about 36 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
764. JrWeathermanFL
If everything tropical was a TS or TD, then tropical moisture would be named.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
763. Thing342
Quoting FL1980:
So the NHC classified that piece of garbage in the atlantic as a depression. Talk about padding stats. Having this classified is a joke.
Yep, 30+ years of experience and expertise means NOTHING compared to all 9 of your posts.

Go away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
762. Hurricanes101
I am going to write the NHC and tell them to take back the classification of TD 13, just so I don't have to hear the less knowledgeable on here whine about it

BRB
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
761. washingtonian115
Anyone know when the next CSU forecast comes out?.Sure gonna be interesting..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
760. weatherh98
Quoting LostTomorrows:


John and Joyce, the "J" stands for "jumping the gun" on being an adequate tropical cyclone. =P


jose
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
759. WeatherNerdPR
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Significant impact?
So thunderstorms are significant impact?

Rain, wind, flooding, power outages. Those are the significant impacts to be expected from a TS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
758. MAweatherboy1
OMG, the NHC classified this?!?!?



Lol, jk.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
757. midgulfmom
Evening all....just coming out of my heat stupor. Just got power last night. Out since Tuesday. The most impressive part of Issac was the constant winds for hours and hours on end. I distinctly remember listening to the radio and hearing that Isaac was moving NW at 6 mph when the winds didn't lesson after 6 hours at all. I knew Issac stalled because he wasn't passing through as they described. Finally he got a move on again. Some neighbors had roof damage due to those small tornadoes spun from land friction in the form of no shingles left on the N side of the roofs and bare wood exposed and raining indoors. Trees snapped and minor street flooding. Made out ok just yard flooded and tree debris and the aftermath of almost unbearable heat with no power. Sadly an elderly gentleman of 90 lost his life yesterday due to heat exhaustion. Thanks to WU krewe for great information and support! You guys called the stall before anyone as far as I know....just great job!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
756. JrWeathermanFL
Quoting Hurricanes101:


you are aware that some had over 15 inches of rain due to Isaac in South Florida? some lost their homes and some are without power

guess that isn't significant enough for you

That aint significant
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
755. Hurricanes101
Quoting AussieStorm:

Mate, if she was organised and tropical it would of been still classified as a TS or TD.


Exactly
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
754. Hurricanes101
Quoting LostTomorrows:


John and Joyce, the "J" stands for "jumping the gun" on being an adequate tropical cyclone. =P


Joyce deserved to get its name too

so sorry, but not every tropical system blooms into a hurricane
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
753. washingtonian115
You must be referring to remnants of Anna affecting Florida?.She wasn't organized and tropical.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
752. AussieStorm
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

I never said she was still considered a TS or TD by the NHC.
I just said she was organized and tropical...

Mate, if she was organised and tropical it would of been still classified as a TS or TD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
751. Grothar
Quoting K8eCane:


BAHAHA...i know u follow the euro and i cant get it. whats the latest?


Large, strong storm moving a little erratically North. should move a little west, then resume North motion then Northeast. Remnants of Isaac will move into the Eastern Gulf and most likely move into Central or Southern Florida. Unknown what the strength will be, probably winds and heavy rain. Will know more later.
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750. weatherh98
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


can this storm be any bigger????


ya
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
749. Hurricanes101
Quoting FL1980:
So the NHC classified that piece of garbage in the atlantic as a depression. Talk about padding stats. Having this classified is a joke.


Organized tropical convection + closed and well-defined low level circulation + persistance = a tropical cyclone
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
748. stormpetrol


about 8 hours but at a slow crawl pretty accurate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
747. LostTomorrows
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Not much of a surprise there... I don't think John has had convection over his center at all during his brief time as a TS.



John and Joyce, the "J" stands for "jumping the gun" on being an adequate tropical cyclone. =P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
746. trHUrrIXC5MMX
Quoting JLPR2:


Highest point is 249 ft, but there will definitely be some serious beach erosion.


I though it was just plain like Florida
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
745. trHUrrIXC5MMX
Quoting sar2401:


Yes. Bermuda is not some flat Pacific atoll. It's mostly limestone with a ridge running down the center of the main island The highest point is Town Hill, at 76 feet. As I said before, Bermuda survived an almost direct hit from Fabian, a strong cat 3, in 2003. It caused some structural and vegetation damage, but anyone who's been there since 2003 can see that the island has recovered just fine. Enough with the "Bermuda is going to be swept clean" talk.


Bermuda is gonna be swept clean....lol... that was funny...
I hope it does not happen... look at the predicted size of that storm...there are going to be high waves hitting the island.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
744. weatherh98
Quoting JLPR2:


Highest point is 249 ft, but there will definitely be some serious beach erosion.


how did coral make that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
743. Hurricanes101
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Significant impact?
So thunderstorms are significant impact?


you are aware that some had over 15 inches of rain due to Isaac in South Florida? some lost their homes and some are without power

guess that isn't significant enough for you
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
742. JrWeathermanFL
Quoting AussieStorm:

Keep digging your hole.



Maybe you should of said this one....


I never said she was still considered a TS or TD by the NHC.
I just said she was organized and tropical...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
741. Tazmanian
A pirate at the local bar discusses his past
A seaman meets a pirate in a bar, and talk turns to their adventures on the sea. The seaman notes that the pirate has a peg-leg, a hook, and an eye patch.

The seaman asks, "So, how did you end up with the peg-leg?" The pirate replies, "We were in a storm at sea, and I was swept overboard into a school of sharks. Just as my men were pulling me out, a shark bit my leg off."

"Wow!" said the seaman. "What about your hook"? "Well", replied the pirate, "We were boarding an enemy ship and were battling the other sailors with swords. One of the enemy cut my hand off."

"Incredible!" remarked the seaman. "How did you get the eye patch"? "A seagull dropping fell into my eye," replied the pirate.

"You lost your eye to a seagull dropping?," the sailor asked incredulously. "Well," said the pirate, "it was my first day with my hook
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
740. JLPR2
Quoting weatherh98:


is bermuda even 30 feet high?


Highest point is 249 ft, but there will definitely be some serious beach erosion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
739. stormpetrol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
738. trHUrrIXC5MMX


can this storm be any bigger????
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
737. AussieStorm
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Ana was organized and tropical when she hit me....

Keep digging your hole.



Maybe you should of said this one....



Taz stay on topic please.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
736. FL1980
So the NHC classified that piece of garbage in the atlantic as a depression. Talk about padding stats. Having this classified is a joke.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
735. Tazmanian
A brain goes to a local bar
A brain walks into a bar and says, "I'll have a pint of beer please."

The barman looks at him and says "Sorry, I can't serve you."

"Why not?" askes the brain.

"You're already out of your head.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
734. JLPR2
Rather interesting to see the 925mb vort so aligned with the convection.


Maybe the convection/MLC has been pulling the LLC towards it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
733. JrWeathermanFL
no ts Anna ever made landfall in FL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
732. washingtonian115
Quoting Tazmanian:
time for a bar joke


The number twelve goes to a bar
A number twelve walks into a bar and asks the barman for a pint of beer.

"Sorry I can't serve you," states the barman.

"Why not?!" asks the number twelve with anger showing in its voice.

"You're under 18," replies the barman
Lol.It's so bad it's good! :).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
731. MAweatherboy1
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
John is no longer a tropical storm.

EP, 10, 2012090400, , BEST, 0, 213N, 1142W, 30, 1003, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 240, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOHN, M,

Not much of a surprise there... I don't think John has had convection over his center at all during his brief time as a TS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
730. weatherh98
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'd be using my brain instead and preparing for a close pass from a near major hurricane. Bermuda is forecast to get 30+ foot waves.


is bermuda even 30 feet high?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
729. Hurricanes101
Quoting washingtonian115:
Back to weather.BTW I didn't know Anna made landfall in Florida in 2009.I thought that was Claudette?.


yup it was Claudette
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
728. Tazmanian
time for a bar joke


The number twelve goes to a bar
A number twelve walks into a bar and asks the barman for a pint of beer.

"Sorry I can't serve you," states the barman.

"Why not?!" asks the number twelve with anger showing in its voice.

"You're under 18," replies the barman
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
727. JrWeathermanFL
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

You're wrong.
Isaac passed just south of the Keys, close enough to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern half of Florida. It may have not made landfall, but it did have a significant impact.
Significant impact?
So thunderstorms are significant impact?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
726. washingtonian115
Back to weather.BTW I didn't know Anna made landfall in Florida in 2009.I thought that was Claudette?.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
725. AussieStorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is a difference between a tropical cyclone making landfall on a said location and it just affecting that said location. In this case, Hurricanes101 is right; Isaac never officially made landfall on Florida or the Florida Keys. However, the effects were widespread and significant. Not sure why we are debating this when it doesn't matter either way.

He did say
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Isaac never hit FL


He didn't specify landfall or effect/impact. The circulation of Isaac hit Florida. He might as well say Isaac didn't hit the Leeward Islands also.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
724. Hurricanes101
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Ana was organized and tropical when she hit me....


lol no she wasn't, Ana fell apart and was not a tropical cyclone when she impacted Florida

Isaac on the other hand, was
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
723. JLPR2
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's hard to tell where the center is, but I think it's most likely on the NW corner of the deep convection.



I agree. Maybe ASCAT will give us a good look at the circulation in a little while. I hope. :\
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
722. wxchaser97
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is a difference between a tropical cyclone making landfall on a said location and it just affecting that said location. In this case, JRWeathermanFL is right; Isaac never officially made landfall on Florida or the Florida Keys. However, the effects were widespread and significant. Not sure why we are debating this when it doesn't matter either way.

I guess this is pretty pointless as landfall or not the impacts were the same.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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