Disorganized Leslie headed towards Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie continues to struggle with moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The shear is keeping heavy thunderstorms confined to the southeast quadrant of the storm. These thunderstorms are as far removed from the center as we've so far with Leslie, as seen on satellite loops. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to stay moderately high through Tuesday night, then drop to the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday night. At that time, Leslie will be over warm ocean waters of 29°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should allow Leslie to intensify into at least a Category 1 hurricane by Friday, as predicted by most of the intensity forecast models. Intensification to a stronger storm may be hampered by its slow motion, which will cause Leslie to churn up cool water from the depths that will slow intensification. Once Leslie begins moving more quickly on Saturday, this effect will diminish, and Leslie could be at Category 2 strength on Saturday, as predicted by the HWRF and LGEM models. Steering currents for Leslie are expected to be weak on Tuesday - Friday, as Leslie gets stuck between two upper level lows. The latest guidance from our top computer continues to show Leslie making a very close pass by Bermuda on Saturday, and that island can expect a 3-day period of rough weather Friday through Sunday. Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. This trough should be strong enough to pull Leslie quickly to the north on Saturday and Sunday, and Leslie may be close enough to the coast that the storm will make landfall in Canada on Monday, September 10. None of the reliable models have shown that a direct hit on New England will occur, but we can't rule that possibility out yet. The most likely long-term fate of Leslie will be for it to miss land entirely and brush by the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, but any forecast of what a tropical cyclone might do a full seven days in advance is pretty speculative. Regardless, Leslie will bring an extended period of high waves to Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Nova Scotia and Newfoundland this week. These waves will be capable of causing significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. The low-level circulation center is fully exposed to view, thanks to strong northwest winds creating 15 - 20 knots of wind shear.

Invest 99L in the Central Atlantic
A small extratropical low pressure system that got cut off from the jet stream and is now spinning away in the Central Atlantic, near 26°N 42°W, (Invest 99L), is headed west at 10 mph, and has developed a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. This storm is not a threat to any land areas, and in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is a difference between a tropical cyclone making landfall on a said location and it just affecting that said location. In this case, JRWeathermanFL is right; Isaac never officially made landfall on Florida or the Florida Keys. However, the effects were widespread and significant. Not sure why we are debating this when it doesn't matter either way.

I guess this is pretty pointless as landfall or not the impacts were the same.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
John is no longer a tropical storm.

EP, 10, 2012090400, , BEST, 0, 213N, 1142W, 30, 1003, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 240, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JOHN, M,
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
13 remains as TD on 00z Best Track.

AL, 13, 2012090400, , BEST, 0, 258N, 425W, 30, 1012, TD
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Quoting AussieStorm:


try again....


Ana was organized and tropical when she hit me....
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Isaac....

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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

I'm correcting people....
OMG CORRECTING PEOPLE!!!! I'M A MANIAC!!! -___-
There is a difference in correcting people and doing it with a **** head like attitude...
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It's hard to tell where the center is, but I think it's most likely on the NW corner of the deep convection.

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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

In that case, Ana hit FL in 2009.....


try again....

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Quoting Progster:


I worked the Marine desk at the Maritimes weather Centre in Nova Scotia during "The Perfect Storm". Wave heights topped out around 32 m (105 ft) about 100 km S of the coast. It seems the accelerometers on the buoys could not measure a higher displacement than that, so 32 m was the minimum. Sig wave, as I recall, was around 25 m.


I don't have a bit of problem believing that. I'ma submariner and I recall a time in the north atlantic where we were rolling 20 degrees at 200 feet.. we went deeper, ran a full bell for a couple days and came back up where it was smoother.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Dude what is wrong with you tonight?.Normally like a chill blogger and then you just come in here like a maniac who hasn't had his meds.

I'm correcting people....
OMG CORRECTING PEOPLE!!!! I'M A MANIAC!!! -___-
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

In that case, Ana hit FL in 2009.....


Ana had ZERO impacts on the state of Florida as an organized tropical system, quit while you are behind
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Isaac never hit the Keys....
Don't even tell me I'm wrong because I know I'm right.
Sayint that Isaac hit the keys is like saying Jose was a Cat 5....

You're wrong.
Isaac passed just south of the Keys, close enough to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern half of Florida. It may have not made landfall, but it did have a significant impact.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
There is a difference between a tropical cyclone making landfall on a said location and it just affecting that said location. In this case, JRWeathermanFL is right; Isaac never officially made landfall on Florida or the Florida Keys. However, the effects were widespread and significant. Not sure why we are debating this when it doesn't matter either way.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Isaac never made LANDFALL in the keys, but saying they were not hit is implying they had no impacts from it either

In that case, Ana hit FL in 2009.....
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Dude what is wrong with you tonight?.Normally like a chill blogger and then you just come in here like a maniac who hasn't had his meds.
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Isaac never hit the Keys....
Don't even tell me I'm wrong because I know I'm right.
Sayint that Isaac hit the keys is like saying Jose was a Cat 5....


Isaac never made LANDFALL in the keys, but saying they were not hit is implying they had no impacts from it either
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Isaac never hit FL


Really, which planet do you live on, did you read the good Dr's blog on it and look at the rainfall map. What was it that hit the Florida keys then, a mystery spinning cloud formation?

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705. JLPR2
Seems Leslie is pulling itself together, so far this is the best, strongest looking band that has been visible on radar.

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Isaac never hit the Keys....
Don't even tell me I'm wrong because I know I'm right.
Sayint that Isaac hit the keys is like saying Jose was a Cat 5....
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Quoting Grothar:



WHAT! I was on the phone with Dr. Bombay.


BAHAHA...i know u follow the euro and i cant get it. whats the latest?
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

He never hit the keys

He passed close enough to give strong TS conditions to the Keys and TS winds to SFL as well.
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700. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:19 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I guess the Keys don't count as part of Florida.



A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE CONCH REPUBLIC

The Conch Republic was established by secession of the Florida Keys from the United States of America, on April 23rd, 1982 in response to a United States Border Patrol Blockade setup on highway U.S.1 at Florida City just to the north of the Florida Keys.

This heinous act effectively isolated Keys Citizens from the U.S. mainland since the blockade was on our only land artery to and from the mainland. This roadblock portrayed Keys residents as non-U.S. citizens who had to prove their citizenship in order to drive onto the Florida mainland! Hardly an American thing to do!

http://www.conchrepublic.com/history.htm

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699. JrWeathermanFL
12:19 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting BDADUDE:

Its dark in Bermuda now. I think that webcam is dead.

night time most likely -_____-
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698. washingtonian115
12:19 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

What about the Florida Keys, that is still Fl and Isaac passed over them.
He's being mr.corrector super beep(censored due to blog rules) tonight..
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697. flcanes
12:18 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting palmettobug53:


See my post 648.

igor and ophelia have them on there feet
same applies to canada
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696. Hurricanes101
12:17 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Isaac never hit FL


um what?
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695. wxchaser97
12:17 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Isaac never hit FL

What about the Florida Keys, that is still Fl and Isaac passed over them.
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694. JrWeathermanFL
12:16 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I guess the Keys don't count as part of Florida.

He never hit the keys
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693. BDADUDE
12:16 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting unknowncomic:
Best Bermuda webcam so far is in the back of someones house with trees visible.
Link

Its dark in Bermuda now. I think that webcam is dead.
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692. Progster
12:16 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:


It's only partial remnants some trough & depending on the model~ maybe some of that ULL slowly trying to deepen over the Bahamas. Definitely a new invest # & name. Unless it stays just a blob then it will probably get a title like Isaac Reprise, Son of..or something..


In honor of Louisiana, perhaps Isaac "Redeux"..
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691. Grothar
12:16 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I will get him in a minute...




WHAT! I was on the phone with Dr. Bombay.
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690. AussieStorm
12:15 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


If it does "reform" from remnants, is it Isaac again, or Son of Isaac, or Isaac Part 2, Nadine or We Don't Know What the Heck to Call It....just hunker down and ride it out! LOL

Isaac is gone. All but a bad memory for to many people. If it does develop it will get the next name on the list at that time.
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689. ncstorm
12:15 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Are there Web Cams there?



found this on google..
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688. WeatherNerdPR
12:15 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Isaac never hit FL

I guess the Keys don't count as part of Florida.
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687. BDADUDE
12:14 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Are there Web Cams there?

If it gets close i will post my webcam.
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686. JrWeathermanFL
12:14 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
this year is 2004 all over only this storms have been weaker than the ones in 04 Florida has been hit by Beryl,Debby,Isaac and probable another.

Isaac never hit FL
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685. ncstorm
12:14 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting BDADUDE:
Swells building here in Bermuda. Up to 10ft I would say. I am still thinking this thing will bypass us by a good distance.


hope for the best and prepare for the worst
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684. wxchaser97
12:14 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
September I think we could see 6 name storms.So that'll be 18 by the time September comes to a close.4 in both June and May,8 in August and 6 in September.

And then there is October and November so that could be another few storms, another very busy season storm number wise.
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683. unknowncomic
12:14 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Best Bermuda webcam so far is in the back of someones house with trees visible.
Link
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682. Tropicsweatherpr
12:12 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting BDADUDE:
Swells building here in Bermuda. Up to 10ft I would say. I am still thinking this thing will bypass us by a good distance.


Are there Web Cams there?
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681. BDADUDE
12:12 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'd be using my brain instead and preparing for a close pass from a near major hurricane. Bermuda is forecast to get 30+ foot waves.

We will see. We all know the drill here, it will be business as usual till Thursday then we will see what is happening.
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680. Progster
12:12 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting RTSplayer:


How long have you been watching this?


Katrina had dominant wave heights of 17 METERS, over 50ft.


Ivan may have had an isolated wave over the central Gulf which was as high as 90feet, based on a damage report on a oil platform.


I worked the Marine desk at the Maritimes weather Centre in Nova Scotia during "The Perfect Storm". Wave heights topped out around 32 m (105 ft) about 100 km S of the coast. It seems the accelerometers on the buoys could not measure a higher displacement than that, so 32 m was the minimum. Sig wave, as I recall, was around 25 m.
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679. allancalderini
12:12 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
this year is 2004 all over again only this storms have been weaker than the ones in 04 Florida has been hit by Beryl,Debby,Isaac and probable another.
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678. washingtonian115
12:12 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
September I think we could see 6 name storms.So that'll be 18 by the time September comes to a close.4 in both June and May,8 in August and 6 in September.
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677. wxchaser97
12:11 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting BDADUDE:
Swells building here in Bermuda. Up to 10ft I would say. I am still thinking this thing will bypass us by a good distance.

Are you sure, most if not all models bring Leslie close to Bermuda and so does the NHC and it would be a cat2/3 hurricane.
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676. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:10 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting BDADUDE:
Swells building here in Bermuda. Up to 10ft I would say. I am still thinking this thing will bypass us by a good distance.

I'd be using my brain instead and preparing for a close pass from a near major hurricane. Bermuda is forecast to get 30+ foot waves.
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675. AussieStorm
12:10 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
45 AussieStorm: Leslie is predicted to travel 7.1degrees in 120hrs... which = 3.71mph.
Think of all the up-welling. Mind you, not much to up-well.


Leslie is likely to take a more circuitous route: travel closer to 850miles than your ~500mile direct path...
...leading to an average speed between 6mph and 10km/h


Sorry but you are wrong. I am following the plot from the NHC on where Leslie will be.

INIT 03/2100Z 24.0N 63.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 24.6N 63.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 25.3N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 25.8N 63.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 26.3N 63.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 27.0N 63.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 28.1N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

24.0N to 30.5N = 6.5°x 69.11miles = 449.21miles = 3.74mph
63.1W to 65.0W = 1.9°x 69.11miles = 131.3miles

those number speak for themselves. Leslie will not travel 850miles in the next 120hrs.
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674. wxchaser97
12:10 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Per ECMWF is something does form in the GOMEX it will be Nadine, not Isaac (or Michael, if TD13 fails to become named)

I think TD13 will become Michael for a little bit, that clears up some confusion.
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673. RTSplayer
12:10 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


If it does "reform" from remnants, is it Isaac again, or Son of Isaac, or Isaac Part 2, Nadine or We Don't Know What the Heck to Call It....just hunker down and ride it out! LOL


It would be something else if that happened.

Reason is CoC of Isaac remnants is far to the north and would have little to nothing related to that low pressure system, except that it may be a broken off piece of a feeder band.
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672. E46Pilot
12:10 AM GMT on September 04, 2012
Bermuda has some very strict building codes. They'll be ok.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather