Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Yes, he turned out to be a very "small" man.
2 foot tall
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Though if the US goes without a major hurricane for another 10 years or something like that, I will probably believe seeding.

Pretty self centered for this secret agency to be only seeding Atlantic storms instead of every other storm. Something tells me if there was seeding, you'd see a lack of hurricanes on the Earth - period. You can't seed hurricanes, they're a big part in the environment to regulate heat.

Exactly. It's basically because the global population growth that people are spreading out into these tropical regions where hurricanes have been traveling to since the beginning of time... Seeding Hurricanes would only mean more global disasters on our part anyway... You saw what happened to Beijing when they tryed to mess with weather... Record Snowfall where they wanted the snow to fall(Beijing), but the worst drought in history concurred the Western half of China, and other central asian countries...
Point being.
#1. Don't mess with nature, because there is noone near smart enough to realize what might just happen by doing so.
#2. DONT MESS WITH WEATHER AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. PERIOD.
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Not bad intensification rate.

12/1432 UTC 13.9N 130.2E T4.5/4.5 SANBA -- West Pacific
12/2032 UTC 14.6N 129.9E T5.5/5.5 SANBA -- West Pacific

A good jump from 75kts to 100kts. Won't be 100kts for long though.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
What often strikes me as humorous is that many of those who refuse to believe that the 40 trillion liters of CO2 we humans pump into the environment each day can have any effect on global temperatures over a decadal scale are nevertheless convinced that a couple of pounds of chemicals dumped into a 500-mile-wide, 150-mph tropical cyclone will cause it to instantly change strength or direction.
plus one
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
The Twilight Zone was one of the best TV series ever.... I have it recorded.... I am afraid I have seen them all. What a great writer Rod Serling was... This morning I watched "Four O'clock" with Theodore Bikel... Great
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
The Twilight Zone was one of the TV series ever.... I have it recorded.... I am afraid I have seen them all. What a great writer Rod Serling was... This morning I watched "Four O'clock" with Theodore Bikel... Great


Yes, he turned out to be a very "small" man.
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
100th comment yaa!
I'll drink to that
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Quoting NEwxguy:

Nope,no offense,wondering how many here got what the reference to Timmy meant.lol
Actually Timmy never, ever fell into a well....... Trivia
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Quoting MTWX:


Probably where I got the idea... Been watching all the episodes on Netflix!! LOL! ;)
The Twilight Zone was one of the TV series ever.... I have it recorded.... I am afraid I have seen them all. What a great writer Rod Serling was... This morning I watched "Four O'clock" with Theodore Bikel... Great
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I don't think think the government should be messing with the hurricane development...I mean we've all ready damaged our planet enough.Yes I know no one likes looking at hurricanes coming their way but their is a reason why they form.So just leave them alone and let them be..Or else we would face greater consequences.Let nature BREATH dammit!.
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Nice wave coming off Africa....

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There have been many small- and large-scale cloud seeding experiments performed over the last several decades. None have been empirically proven to be effective, controllable, safe, and replicatable. Not a one.

I do believe that condensation trails left by high-altitude jets can have an effect on the weather; after all, to solar radiation, clouds are clouds whether natural or not. But there's a huge difference between acknowledging the effect of contrails and assuming a great government plot to gain dominion over the global climate by slicing up the sky with massive amounts of weather-making "chemtrails". The former is science; the latter is a silly conspiracy theory, and, until/unless proven otherwise, should be dismissed as such.

What often strikes me as humorous is that many of those who refuse to believe that the 40 trillion liters of CO2 we humans pump into the environment each day can have any effect on global temperatures over a decadal scale are nevertheless convinced that a couple of pounds of chemicals dumped into a 500-mile-wide, 150-mph tropical cyclone will cause it to instantly change strength or direction.

Some people are funny that way. ;-)
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
arn't so good at? The manhatten prod?


Actually, we didn't do a great job of keeping its existence under wraps, though the work going on there got kept pretty well for a good while, given the number of people involved.

Nuclear tech secrets tend to be an exception to the rule. But do bear in mind that even there, we've had, like, whole hard drives full of classified nuclear info just be misplaced for a time.

High clearance folks are still people; I've known a few. They're people who work with a lot of failsafes in the system, designed to help protect against human error -- those failsafes are not the kind of thing that are easy or cheap to deal with, so the idea that there are tons and tons of places where the government keeps those sorts of major secrets is kind of strange to me. They're kept at great cost and with great effort, and there are still occasional mistakes.

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Quoting MNhockeymama:


There seems to be a lot of conspiracy thinking going on here, so I just thought I'd throw that out there. :p

I don't doubt that the gov't has the ability to do some things when it comes to weather, but most of the time I believe it is just weather - naturally occurring the way it has for 1000s of years and will continue to for 1000s more.
"You unlock the door with the key of imagination. Beyond it is another dimension- a dimension of sound, a dimension of sight, a dimension of mind.Your'e moving into a land of both shadow and substance, of things and ideas. Youv'e just crossed over into "The Twilight Zone"
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260. MTWX
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Wasn't that a Twilight Zone episode?


Probably where I got the idea... Been watching all the episodes on Netflix!! LOL! ;)
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Quoting opal92nwf:
I don't see why the government would be secretive if they have been successfully seeding hurricanes the past few years. If they have been successful with Ike, Gustav, Irene, Isaac, etc.. (which were forecast to be stronger but actually they weakened), then why have they kept quiet? I don't think they would keep quiet forever.
Got any evidence? lol

Cloud seeding can be done to locally alter precipitation, however, on the large scale it is incredibly impractical as it is expensive, ineffective, and environmentally harmful. I wouldn't doubt we have tried to alter the course and intensity of a hurricane, but it hasn't been done with any success. The weakening we saw in the storms you mention was not originally forecasted by the model guidance, but they are well within normal margins of error for intensity forecasts. Also don't you think the NHC would account for greater weakening in their forecasts, if they were actually manipulating the storms intensity? Makes no sense to forecast a storm strong if you knew you were going to weaken the storm (hypothetically speaking here, clearly they did no such thing).

Pretty silly argument you have. Then again, some people still think we haven't landed on the moon or that 9/11 was an inside job, so I suppose your idea is not that extreme on the spectrum of absurd conspiracy theorems.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I'm so sorry, Hope I didn't offend you..........And yes, I am THAT generation

Nope,no offense,wondering how many here got what the reference to Timmy meant.lol
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seriously people, seeding hurricanes? ::yawn::
been there, tried that, didn't work.

you want definitive proof that they AREN'T seeding hurricanes?
If they were, WxMod would be having a field day posting MODIS images of the airplanes going to and fro.

Q.E.D.

XD
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Quoting presslord:
snow is evil...it is of the devil...

I agree. That's why I lived in California for 38 years and now in Alabama. I grew up in Cleveland and saw more snow than I ever want to see again in my 21 years there.

The local mets are oicking up on what looks to be a major cold front impacting central AL in about a week. I doubt it will be as trong as what the GFS is calling for but it should at least keep us somewhat below normal with low humidity, so that's fine with me.

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Quoting MTWX:
I got a theory for y'all...

Earth is just an Alien kids Ant Farm and he does various things to us to see how we react... Changes the climate settings... Changes weather... Causes earthquakes and volcanoes... Droughts and Floods... Feast and famine...


Wasn't that a Twilight Zone episode?
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254. BA
If you don't think we have the technology to alter big slow moving weather systems like tropical storms, you would probably be wrong.

Now if it is being done or not...that's a different story, regardless, I doubt any of us would know about it.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
"What"?


There seems to be a lot of conspiracy thinking going on here, so I just thought I'd throw that out there. :p

I don't doubt that the gov't has the ability to do some things when it comes to weather, but most of the time I believe it is just weather - naturally occurring the way it has for 1000s of years and will continue to for 1000s more.
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Nadine...

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251. BA
-double post-
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Kristy is ugly.'Nuff said...You would expect a much better looking storm with that name than what we are currently seeing..but no.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like nature has granted my wish this year with not only having a decent hurricane season but it appears we'll have a much more cold and snowy winter here in D.C.I hope so.Last winter sucked so hard I had mistaken it for fall so many times...Instead of snowstorms we had thunderstorms...If we keep this up I think a snow event can't be ruled out in December :).
I hope your hurricane prediction is spot on washington, but the peak was only 2 days ago.
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247. MTWX
I got a theory for y'all...

Earth is just an Alien kids Ant Farm and he does various things to us to see how we react... Changes the climate settings... Changes weather... Causes earthquakes and volcanoes... Droughts and Floods... Feast and famine...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I have a friend who is quite positive that some guy invented an engine that used zero energy (quite a feat!) but that the government threatened him and paid him off at behest of the oil companies and so this magical, physics-defying machine is hidden in a warehouse somewhere with armed guards and _that's_ why we're all screwed.

I wish I were joking.

Thing is, you will never convince him otherwise, because it cannot be proven that somebody _isn't_ hiding something. Logical impossibility.

My personal opinion is that the government is much more often way more inept than people account for in these things. Most conspiracy theories would require an awful lot of much craftier behavior from an awful lot of government agencies than I've personally seen much evidence for.

Look, apart from that, if you start from the direction of "it's cloud seeding!" and then work back from there to find justifications for thinking so, you will find things that kinda look like "evidence."

But they still won't be evidence of it, really. Try looking at it from the point of view of many possible explanations. Then the "evidence" being presented here will be clear to be evidence of any number of other possibilities, too.
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Quoting MNhockeymama:
The comments re gov't controlled weather begs the question: If Bush and his magic weather machine caused Katrina to hit NOLA (as some have alleged), then why didn't Obama use the same magic machine to protect NOLA from Isaac? Is Obama, since it's an election year, using the same magic weather machine to protect the CONUS from major hurricanes? Or will that be his "October Surprise"?

"What"?
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Looks like nature has granted my wish this year with not only having a decent hurricane season but it appears we'll have a much more cold and snowy winter here in D.C.I hope so.Last winter sucked so hard I had mistaken it for fall so many times...Instead of snowstorms we had thunderstorms...If we keep this up I think a snow event can't be ruled out in December :).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The comments re gov't controlled weather begs the question: If Bush and his magic weather machine caused Katrina to hit NOLA (as some have alleged), then why didn't Obama use the same magic machine to protect NOLA from Isaac? Is Obama, since it's an election year, using the same magic weather machine to protect the CONUS from major hurricanes? Or will that be his "October Surprise"?

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Kristy is one of those storms that looks much better in visible than infrared.

Vis:


AVN:
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Quoting flcanes:

yeah,something is weird
nhc is keeping secrets conspiracy
Not saying it is happening, but if seeding is being experimented with they would ,or may keep things quiet until it is perfected, (or not) BUT, I do believe there are many, many things we are not privy to at the time being...Just my thought.
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:
I just don't see any particularly good reason to think that seeding has much to do with any of it.

When there are a huge number of completely natural explanations for something, and the alternative theory would require a huge number of people keeping secrets for large spans of time (something many humans aren't so good at doing), and when the known science around seeding still has about zip likelihood of having a whole lot of effect on a huge hurricane, I'm not sure why one would go to something like "seeding" as _a_ likely answer, much less _the_ likely answer.

hmmm,maybe they seed debby and put gfs on steroids
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Quoting opal92nwf:
I don't see why the government would be secretive if they have been successfully seeding hurricanes the past few years. If they have been successful with Ike, Gustav, Irene, Isaac, etc.. (which were forecast to be stronger but actually they weakened), then why have they kept quiet? I don't think they would keep quiet forever.

yeah,something is weird
nhc is keeping secrets conspiracy
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I just don't see any particularly good reason to think that seeding has much to do with any of it.

When there are a huge number of completely natural explanations for something, and the alternative theory would require a huge number of people keeping secrets for large spans of time (something many humans aren't so good at doing), and when the known science around seeding still has about zip likelihood of having a whole lot of effect on a huge hurricane, I'm not sure why one would go to something like "seeding" as _a_ likely answer, much less _the_ likely answer.
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I don't see why the government would be secretive if they have been successfully seeding hurricanes the past few years. If they have been successful with Ike, Gustav, Irene, Isaac, etc.. (which were forecast to be stronger but actually they weakened), then why have they kept quiet? I don't think they would keep quiet forever.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
"I caught an elephant in my underwear, How he got in my underwear I will never know"

lol
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Quoting opal92nwf:
Seeding a hurricane is like trying to catch an elephant in a butterfly net.
"I caught an elephant in my underwear, How he got in my underwear I will never know"
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Seeding a hurricane is like trying to catch an elephant in a butterfly net.
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:
im going now sorry i caused such a ruckus!
It is a friendly rukus
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Who knows.Maybe the government might be causing all the dry air out in the Atlantic.Lol.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Though if the US goes without a major hurricane for another 10 years or something like that, I will probably believe seeding.

Pretty self centered for this secret agency to be only seeding Atlantic storms instead of every other storm. Something tells me if there was seeding, you'd see a lack of hurricanes on the Earth - period. You can't seed hurricanes, they're a big part in the environment to regulate heat.
I'm not sure if seeding hurricanes exists at the present, but I do believe it will happen in the near future... If we can make a Cat 3,4,or 5 hurricane a cat 1 or 2 I am all for it... We still are experimenting with our present knowledge whether it be good or bad, such as cloning which I am not for, Even CocaCola tried and screwed up with the "NEW" coke, but we keep on truckin'... Let's hope a cancer cure is on the way also
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im going now sorry i caused such a ruckus!
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Oooookkkkk, I don't think the US gov't is altering tropical weather. Please tell us your reasoning as to why you think that?


because its cheaper
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


there will never be data for it because the govt doesnt want us to know anything! but maybe when americas problems become more than someone crying over black white issues whos taxes are paying for foodstamps and other trivial stuff that doesnt matter category 5 hurricanes will start to happen again! until then budget will continue to pay for protecting us from hurricanes.


Hurricane seeding has been attempted in the past and the US government was vocal about it. Why would they hide it now?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Seeding is a ridiculous idea that has absolutely no merit. Anybody that believes it is real is foolish, plain and simple.

Irene weakened due to a combination of dry air, its large size, and an ongoing EWRC that never finished.


im foolish, but then again you all might be too! nobody knows
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather