Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Seeding is a ridiculous idea that has absolutely no merit. Anybody that believes it is real is foolish, plain and simple.

Irene weakened due to a combination of dry air, its large size, and an ongoing EWRC that never finished.


im foolish, but then again you all might be too! nobody knows
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Nadine is the best looking female storm of the season(besides Beryl).Way to make ugly Leslie jealous!.She has intensified at a nice clip today.Could she be our first female named major hurricane?.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I just watched the run of the GFS, and even though it was near the end of the run, it showed a storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical wave charging due West into the Caribbean without recurving. Who knows, the most hectic time of hurricane season may be yet to come...
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


thats because the mexican and pacific island countries govt doesnt alter them...notice all the strong hurricanes this year have been ones that curve...perfect example was irene last year....perfect condition weakens to 80mph hurricane hours before landfall..yall can call me crazy i dont care

Oooookkkkk, I don't think the US gov't is altering tropical weather. Please tell us your reasoning as to why you think that?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Present me some data and facts behind seeding and I will support your theory. Until then, given the fact we all watched dry air take down Irene and an EWRC, I will believe the only inhibitor these storms are having is the environment.


there will never be data for it because the govt doesnt want us to know anything! but maybe when americas problems become more than someone crying over black white issues whos taxes are paying for foodstamps and other trivial stuff that doesnt matter category 5 hurricanes will start to happen again! until then budget will continue to pay for protecting us from hurricanes.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Though if the US goes without a major hurricane for another 10 years or something like that, I will probably believe seeding.

Pretty self centered for this secret agency to be only seeding Atlantic storms instead of every other storm. Something tells me if there was seeding, you'd see a lack of hurricanes on the Earth - period. You can't seed hurricanes, they're a big part in the environment to regulate heat.

Seeding is a ridiculous idea that has absolutely no merit. Anybody that believes it is real is foolish, plain and simple.

Irene weakened due to a combination of dry air, its large size, and an ongoing EWRC that never finished.
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Quoting mcluvincane:
Anyone see the latest gfs and euro? Wow, talk about a lull...

Uhh, the ECMWF has two storms in its run and so does the GFS.
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Though if the US goes without a major hurricane for another 10 years or something like that, I will probably believe seeding.

Pretty self centered for this secret agency to be only seeding Atlantic storms instead of every other storm. Something tells me if there was seeding, you'd see a lack of hurricanes on the Earth - period. You can't seed hurricanes, they're a big part in the environment to regulate heat.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Present me some data and facts behind seeding and I will support your theory. Until then, given the fact we all watched dry air take down Irene and an EWRC, I will believe the only inhibitor these storms are having is the environment.


I think size is the biggest one. Dry air (and a prolonged EWRC because of dry air) wouldn't be as big of a problem for a small storm.
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


no if ikes or issacs size was a cat 3, 4, or 5...there would be no new orleans or galveston so its kinda working


Present me some data and facts behind seeding and I will support your theory. Until then, given the fact we all watched dry air take down Irene and an EWRC, I will believe the only inhibitor these storms are having is the environment.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Neither does the National Hurricane Center, so...


they dont control that a secret agency does! they wouldnt tell us what they are doing of course...they never do
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


If they're seeding storms, they're doing a very poor job at it as it's clearly backfiring, as the Category 1's are now as destructive as major hurricanes.


no if ikes or issacs size was a cat 3, 4, or 5...there would be no new orleans or galveston so its kinda working
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4 years ago right now Ike was barreling towards me with Galveston already going under.
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Quoting Doppler22:

UNfortunetely the deadliest one too


Not even close.

Indian ocean, Bay of Bengal. Just one of their top ten deadliest beats probably all other storms in modern times from all other basins combined.
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


thats because the mexican and pacific island countries govt doesnt alter them...notice all the strong hurricanes this year have been ones that curve...perfect example was irene last year....perfect condition weakens to 80mph hurricane hours before landfall..yall can call me crazy i dont care

Neither does the National Hurricane Center, so...
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Sanba looks crazy intense
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Quoting RTSplayer:



No run-off mitigation for all the streets, hotels, casinos, restaurants, and parking lots.

Relatively stupid civil engineers and other engineers, and stupid zoning laws, IMO.


1.75 inches should NOT do this.

If they think that's bad, they should see the 17.5 inches we got from Isaac in 3 days. That would make lots of citizens cry for real, and governments and engineers might grow a brain.


I totally agree with you, but it is worth noting that the soil type is also really different in a lot of the west than it is in the southeast. I can't really speak to Coachella soils, but I know that here, even with good engineering, water runs right off the surface of our dense, hard clay where I am in the central valley. An inch or two in a very short time span would cause a lot of local flooding here even in pristine natural areas.

That said, run-off can also very often be handled poorly here. Most of the engineering and legal work around water here is about getting more of it to places, not about draining it away. There are times and extremes where it becomes clear that both are vital.
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


thats because the mexican and pacific island countries govt doesnt alter them...notice all the strong hurricanes this year have been ones that curve...perfect example was irene last year....perfect condition weakens to 80mph hurricane hours before landfall..yall can call me crazy i dont care


If they're seeding storms, they're doing a very poor job at it as it's clearly backfiring, as the Category 1's are now as destructive as major hurricanes.
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Nadine should become a hurricane tonight and I have peak as 100mph.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Some reason the EPAC has been having far more major hurricanes than we've been having this year and last, yet less named storms.


thats because the mexican and pacific island countries govt doesnt alter them...notice all the strong hurricanes this year have been ones that curve...perfect example was irene last year....perfect condition weakens to 80mph hurricane hours before landfall..yall can call me crazy i dont care
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Quoting yqt1001:
Storms like these are the reasons why I track tropical cyclones.



WPac is no doubt the most epic basin globally.

UNfortunetely the deadliest one too
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It does not go above 85 mph??? why?
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Storms like these are the reasons why I track tropical cyclones.



WPac is no doubt the most epic basin globally.
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Talk of snow??? Keep it coming i want snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Not now but in December/January/February i want SNOW SNOW SNOW AND MORE SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
200 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. BASED ON ASCAT
RETRIEVALS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS. KRISTY ONLY
HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS WITHIN RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR BEFORE THE
CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THESE TWO DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY THE
STATISTICAL MODEL LGEM. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KRISTY
SHOULD HAVE BECOME A REMNANT LOW.

THE CENTER BECAME MORE VISIBLE IN MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY
TODAY...AND IT WAS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. KRISTY IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ACTUALLY...THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST
SINCE THE GFDL AND THE GFS ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RATHER
WIDE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF ARE ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE. THE NHC FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE BIT
NORTHWARD FROM THIS MORNING BASED ON THE INITIAL LOCATION...BUT IN
GENERAL IS BIASED TOWARD THE ECMWF/HWRF SOLUTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 18.2N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 20.0N 109.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 23.5N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z 26.0N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
200 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2012

...TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO...



SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 106.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 PM AST WED SEP 12 2012

...NADINE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 48.9W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
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I see sanba's purple eyewall.



My god Sanba is crazy. Most storm loose there deep convection like this after developing to hurricane strength or so.
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Quoting NEwxguy:


With a question like that,I can guess what generation your from,and also that is not a collie,its a sheltie.
Unfortunately,I lost him last month,so the avatar is a tribute to him.
I'm so sorry, Hope I didn't offend you..........And yes, I am THAT generation
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75 knots my...well...you know!

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Sanba is one nasty looking TC:
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Looking at your icon I must ask......Did Timmy fall in the well?


With a question like that,I can guess what generation your from,and also that is not a collie,its a sheltie.
Unfortunately,I lost him last month,so the avatar is a tribute to him.
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Don't see RAW T's get to 7.0 often...
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JTWC at 75kts.

WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SANBA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.6N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.3N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.1N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 20.8N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.4N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 28.9N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 33.5N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 129.8E.
TYPHOON 17W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM SOUTH OF KADENA
AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z,
131500Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

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192. Skyepony (Mod)


NASA Global Hawk and Satellites Attend Tropical Storm Nadine's 'Birth'

diagram of HS3 flight path

This is NASA's Global Hawk's completed flight path for Sept. 11-12 around Tropical Depression 14 (now Tropical Storm Nadine). The Global Hawk completed the second of six vertical “lawn mower cuts” on Sept. 12 and returned to NASA's Wallops Flight Facility, Va. Credit: NASA
› Larger image


Tropical Depression 14 strengthened into Tropical Storm Nadine while NASA's Hurricane Severe Storm Sentinel Mission, or HS3 mission, was in full-swing and NASA's Global Hawk aircraft captured the event. While the Global Hawk was gathering data over the storm, NASA satellites were also analyzing Nadine from space.

NASA's Global Hawk landed back at Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Va., after spending a full day gathering data from the 14th Atlantic Tropical Depression that strengthened into Tropical Storm Nadine during the morning hours of Sept. 12.

The Global Hawk, one of two associated with the HS3 mission, sought to determine whether hot, dry and dusty air associated with the Saharan air layer was being ingested into the storm. This Saharan air typically crosses westward over the Atlantic Ocean and potentially affects tropical cyclone formation and intensification. During its 26 hour flight around Nadine, the Global Hawk covered more than 1 million square kilometers (386,100 square miles) going back and forth over the storm in what's called a "lawnmower pattern." The Global Hawk captured data using instruments aboard and also dropping sensors called sondes into the storm. The dropsonde system ejected the small sensors tied to parachutes that drift down through the storm measuring winds, temperature and humidity.
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Quoting NEwxguy:


If this was a couple of months from now,I'd be prepping my snowblower.
Looking at your icon I must ask......Did Timmy fall in the well?
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Um....

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2012 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 14:21:51 N Lon : 129:56:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 972.3mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -30.0C Cloud Region Temp : -80.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

That's for the West Pac storm.
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Quoting Dakster:


Me too.. Although it probably won't snow in South Florida, so I will just take cooler weather.
Probaby not
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


lol, i was shocked to be a picture of you...lol

not yet, no snow, i dont think, far too warm at the surface in september, and its fantasy land, we'll trend back to climatology.....unless its 1942 again.

Later in winter the 540 line will become of more importance.

right now all snow stays way up in canada.


If this was a couple of months from now,I'd be prepping my snowblower.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

But they've had more intense storms. Seven hurricanes, of which three became long-lasting major hurricanes.


Some reason the EPAC has been having far more major hurricanes than we've been having this year and last, yet less named storms.
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Nadine looks set to recurve early and might pay us a visit here in the UK. Most recurving hurricane remnants go well north of the UK and are greatly weakened by their long track across the cold north Atlantic.

However, when they recurve where Nadine is predicted to recurve, their approach is from a more southerly direction, so they can retain more of their tropical energy, since they don't spend so much time over cold SSTs as the later reurving ones which graze Canada.

The last one I can think of which did this was Gordon in 2006, which reached cat 3 (120 mph) and still had moderately damaging winds when it reached the UK.

Hurricane Gordon (2006)

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Quoting Thing342:
Eastern Pacific has had fewer named storms. Most of that ACE came from Bud, Daniel, and Emilia.

But they've had more intense storms. Seven hurricanes, of which three became long-lasting major hurricanes.
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Quoting Thing342:
Eastern Pacific has had fewer named storms. Most of that ACE came from Bud, Daniel, and Emilia.


The experts had the EPAC as very active with around 16 -18 named storms but the basin has not gone thru those expectations.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
6-10 day CONUS temperature outlook from the CPC



8-14 day CONUS temperature outlook from the CPC



Meanwhile, Florida will continue to be like living in a deep tropical jungle for the next 10 weeks I bet. Though last year we did get a cold front in early October.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And keeps punping up the Atlantic ACE. Who thought that with the low expectations of an active season,the ACE numbers would be much more than the EPAC. (73.99) vs EPAC at (68.4775)
Eastern Pacific has had fewer named storms. Most of that ACE came from Bud, Daniel, and Emilia.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Pretty Nadine, not bad, not bad at all.


And keeps punping up the Atlantic ACE. Who thought that with the low expectations of an average season,the ACE numbers would be much more than the EPAC. (73.99) vs EPAC at (68.4775)
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NAO looks like it wants to go way negative... that means lots of snow for me if it sticks around into winter :D

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Good afternoon. I see we have Kristy.



It'll be interesting to see of the East Pac catches the Atlantic by the end of the season... I'd say probably not at this point.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

7 hurricanes is the total number we had last year. Last year was pretty sad in intensity if you think about it, lol.


2011 wasn't very exciting, and most of this years storms won't be remembered either.

2010 had some exciting hurricanes that's for sure.
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176. JLPR2


Pretty Nadine, not bad, not bad at all.
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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather