Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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176. JLPR2


Pretty Nadine, not bad, not bad at all.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think that the biggest story for this season was the fact it ended up well above average when it was only predicted to be at most to have 10 named storms. Another factor will be the amount of hurricanes we've had by peak season, 7, as well as the 'super Category 1' Isaac.

7 hurricanes is the total number we had last year. Pretty sad in intensity if you think about it, lol.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I tend to agree with the possible end of the CV season and also agree with a few more storms closer to home perhaps later this month and going into October. With a weak El Nino, we will probably have a longer low shear window the next two months for possible frontal remnant development before the season shuts down completely.

I was out of town for a conference the past few weeks but I think the biggest story of this Atlantic Season so far is the lack of any Major Hurricanes and lots of low grade tropical storms. (unless I missed a major somewhere in the Central Atlantic that at some point).


I think that the biggest story for this season was the fact it ended up well above average when it was only predicted to be at most to have 10 named storms. Another factor will be the amount of hurricanes we've had by peak season, 7, as well as the 'super Category 1' Isaac.

Still thinking that we might see another hurricane after Nadine becomes a hurricane, but in the Caribbean. Conditions are prime with early season fronts coming down and stalling out.
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The 300 mb chart shows the winds at the 300 mb level. The wind speeds are shown as color contours, the heights (bold white lines), temperatures in Celsius (thin red lines) and the vectors show wind direction and speed.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The area at 10n and 33w looks like it has some potential and maybe low enough and take long enough to develop to bring some rain to the Lesser Antilles.
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The 700 mb chart shows the forecasted vertical velocities (colors), heights (bold white lines), temperature in Celsius (thin red lines) and wind vectors.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Nadine looks to have resumed intensification.

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Quoting presslord:


stop it
9 full days of summer remain then it will be falling leaves and blowing snow
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting auburn:
Bring on the cold and even snow..I am ready!


stop it
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Quoting ncstorm:
144 hours


loos like the Azores area is not off the hook yet...
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Quoting auburn:
Bring on the cold and even snow..I am ready!


Me too.. Although it probably won't snow in South Florida, so I will just take cooler weather.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Hot off the press...

6-10 Day



8-14 Day


I like the cold and snow but it's mid September everyone, snow shouldn't happen yet.
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164. auburn (Mod)
Bring on the cold and even snow..I am ready!
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Quoting TomTaylor:
540 line is loosely used to determine the boundary line between rain and snow, but you also have to look at the boundary layer/lower level temperatures to make sure they will support snowfall.


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162. N3EG
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Hot off the press...

6-10 Day



West coast death ridge! Yes!!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He wasn't asking whether or not snow was possible in the USA in that image, he was asking whether or not the 540m line was used to identify where snow could fall, and the answer would be yes...but only if there is precipitation behind that line.
540 line is loosely used to determine the boundary line between rain and snow, but you also have to look at the boundary layer/lower level temperatures to make sure they will support snowfall.
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What? What is all this talk of satan's dandruff? It's only *checks the calendar* mid September. Yes. Mid September. Stop all this voodoo snowcasting!

(I miss snow.)

(In a tourist way.)
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Quoting presslord:
snow is evil...it is of the devil...



NO NO NO NO NO NO!!!!!!!!!
NO!!!
NO!!!!

The sheer horror of your comment is staggering....
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Quoting presslord:


Why would anyone live there?!?!
Walleye fishing?
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snow is evil...it is of the devil...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Trouble? No, it would be awesome!

I've not seen snow in 2 years. :\


I personally like the train of lows coming out of the GOM and lifting into a high pressure area in the SE setup....

people in the northeast don't seem to share my sentiments.
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Quoting RTSplayer:



No run-off mitigation for all the streets, hotels, casinos, restaurants, and parking lots.

Relatively stupid civil engineers and other engineers, and stupid zoning laws, IMO.


1.75 inches should NOT do this.

If they think that's bad, they should see the 17.5 inches we got from Isaac in 3 days. That would make lots of citizens cry for real, and governments and engineers might grow a brain.
You are taking things out of context. Las Vegas is in the desert. There average annual rainfall is a little over 4 inches. To get 1.75 inches in a day is ridiculous. Not to mention, a majority of that rain fell in only half an hour. Considering such an event is so rare, they do not have run-off mitigation programs like other parts of the country.

It's no different than the building codes in the Midwest compared to those out here in California. We live in an earthquake prone region, so we have stricter building codes, meanwhile, they do not, so building codes there are probably a lot looser. That is why minor 4.0 earthquakes seem to do a lot of damage out there, whereas out here a 4.0 wouldn't even make the news.
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Quoting ncstorm:


I hope this isnt the setup for winter because we would be in a world of trouble here..

Trouble? No, it would be awesome!

I've not seen snow in 2 years. :\
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

The same reason some call North Carolina home Janis



Yea?! well....I don't get that, either....
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
A 1005 mb. low right over you, ncstorm.


I hope this isnt the setup for winter because we would be in a world of trouble here..
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


october 31, almost november...this is still late september we are talking about

It has happened before, but based on the models i dont see it happening at this time, but its so far out.

Early Season Winter Storm: September 24-26, 1942


September 2011 Weather..

long range model forecasting will get you in a bunch of trouble..

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Quoting LargoFl:
looks like some of the drought area's of texas are going to be getting some rain finally.....................


UPDATED! Looking better and better

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
GFS Snowfall Accumulation at 312 hrs. maybe a dusting for northern parts of Minnesota?



Why would anyone live there?!?!
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GFS Snowfall Accumulation at 312 hrs. maybe a dusting for northern parts of Minnesota?

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Quoting Neapolitan:
The EPAC has Kristy:

EP, 11, 2012091218, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1063W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 40, 1010, 140, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KRISTY, M,

Guess they changed their minds in 20 minutes, lol.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks for the explanation. Think any of that snow would make it into Toronto? I see Accuweather has a low of 40 with thunderstorms on the 30th, but I guess that is a long ways out and will likely change a 100 times.


i really dont know....lol
I know nothing :P
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Quoting ncstorm:


its not that all unbelievable though..the NE did have snow last year in October


october 31, almost november...this is still late september we are talking about

It has happened before, but based on the models i dont see it happening at this time, but its so far out.

Early Season Winter Storm: September 24-26, 1942
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Nadine up to 55kts.

AL, 14, 2012091218, , BEST, 0, 196N, 482W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 0, 40, 1010, 300, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He wasn't asking whether or not snow was possible in the USA in that image, he was asking whether or not the 540m line was used to identify where snow could fall, and the answer would be yes...but only if there is precipitation behind that line.


Last i checked there was, and it wasnt snow....not this time.
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Quoting ncstorm:
144 hours
A 1005 mb. low right over you, ncstorm.
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The EPAC has Kristy:

EP, 11, 2012091218, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1063W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 40, 1010, 140, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KRISTY, M,
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137. VR46L
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Oh ok, yeah the Euro showed a low in the central Gulf last night, it doesn't look like it will amount to much as it looks like whatever forms will get absorbed into the front.


You may have a point....

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Quoting ncstorm:
144 hours

Just your average major hurricane affecting the Azores.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


lol, i was shocked to be a picture of you...lol

not yet, no snow, i dont think, far too warm at the surface in september, and its fantasy land, we'll trend back to climatology.....unless its 1942 again.

Later in winter the 540 line will become of more importance.

right now all snow stays way up in canada.
Thanks for the explanation. Think any of that snow would make it into Toronto? I see Accuweather has a low of 40 with thunderstorms on the 30th, but I guess that is a long ways out and will likely change a 100 times.
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144 hours
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


lol, i was shocked to be a picture of you...lol

not yet, no snow, i dont think, far too warm at the surface in september, and its fantasy land, we'll trend back to climatology.....unless its 1942 again.

Later in winter the 540 line will become of more importance.

right now all snow stays way up in canada.


its not that all unbelievable though..the NE did have snow last year in October
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


lol, i was shocked to be a picture of you...lol

not yet, no snow, i dont think, far too warm at the surface in september, and its fantasy land, we'll trend back to climatology.....unless its 1942 again.

Later in winter the 540 line will become of more importance.

right now all snow stays way up in canada.

He wasn't asking whether or not snow was possible in the USA in that image, he was asking whether or not the 540m line was used to identify where snow could fall, and the answer would be yes...but only if there is precipitation behind that line.
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Quoting ncstorm:


thats how I understood it..
Oh ok, yeah the Euro showed a low in the central Gulf last night, it doesn't look like it will amount to much as it looks like whatever forms will get absorbed into the front.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Is it the 540 line that you have to look at to determine whether the possibility exists for snow or not?


lol, i was shocked to be a picture of you...lol

not yet, no snow, i dont think, far too warm at the surface in september, and its fantasy land, we'll trend back to climatology.....unless its 1942 again.

Later in winter the 540 line will become of more importance.

right now all snow stays way up in canada.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Is it the 540 line that you have to look at to determine whether the possibility exists for snow or not?


thats how I understood it..
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Euro 120 hrs.



two for the price of one..
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Followed by a deep fantasy land trough:
Is it the 540 line that you have to look at to determine whether the possibility exists for snow or not?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



and again:



Followed by a deep fantasy land trough:
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather