Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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12z GFS is busy with developing systems from CV origin to Western Caribbean one.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Where and when did Michael hit major status?.........Thanks.

Out in the Atlantic not long ago. Major Mike!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
74. 7544
could the bahamma blob head wnw ?
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:

It is interesting to see how different agencies treat el nino phenomena. The CPC distinguishes between el nino episodes and el nino conditions. An episode is a string of months with observed el nino conditions. A month of el nino conditions would not necessarily make an el nino episode.

Also, the CPC requires the atmosphere to respond to the warm SST's before declaring el nino conditions. It is not just a warming of seawater that constitutes an el nino. If the atmosphere does not respond then they call it neutral conditions. The following quote gives a laundry list of what they expect to see in the atmosphere.

"Possible signs of El Niño development in the atmosphere included upper-level easterly wind anomalies and a slightly negative Southern Oscillation Index. Despite these indicators, key aspects of the tropical atmosphere did not support the development of El Niño conditions during the month. In particular, low-level trade winds were near average along the equator, and the pattern of tropical convection from Indonesia to the central equatorial Pacific was inconsistent with El Niño with the typical regions of both enhanced and suppressed convection shifted too far west (Fig. 5). Because of the lack of clear atmospheric anomaly patterns, ENSO-neutral conditions persisted during August."
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Leslie

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Quoting 12george1:

Nah, you didn't really miss something; Michael was the only major hurricane so far.


Where and when did Michael hit major status?.........Thanks.
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Quoting Stats56:


Just went to grab some lunch. Starting to look nasty over towards IAH.

Per the NWS discussion, we might get some storms in the area... decent convergence, decent moisture, not much cap, and low convective temps.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I tend to agree with the possible end of the CV season and also agree with a few more storms closer to home perhaps later this month and going into October. With a weak El Nino, we will probably have a longer low shear window the next two months for possible frontal remnant development before the season shuts down completely.

I was out of town for a conference the past few weeks but I think the biggest story of this Atlantic Season so far is the lack of any Major Hurricanes and lots of low grade tropical storms. (unless I missed a major somewhere in the Central Atlantic that at some point).

Nah, you didn't really miss something; Michael was the only major hurricane so far.
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67. 7544
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Rain rain and rain!!!!


yeap and maybe more more more if that bahamma blob decides to go west will it hmmmm im a fan blob watch today
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Thanks Dr. Masters, I think we will see a 1-2 more cv storms and a few hoemgrown ones.
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Quoting RetiredChiefP:


Just walked outside...disregard the "mostly sunny" part of my last post. SW of Humble, and over IAH looks pretty dark and forboding. Lol, my grass sure could use some rain though.


Just went to grab some lunch. Starting to look nasty over towards IAH.
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I tend to agree with the possible end of the CV season and also agree with a few more storms closer to home perhaps later this month and going into October. With a weak El Nino, we will probably have a longer low shear window the next two months for possible frontal remnant development before the season shuts down completely.

I was out of town for a conference the past few weeks but I think the biggest story of this Atlantic Season so far is the lack of any Major Hurricanes and lots of low grade tropical storms. (unless I missed a major somewhere in the Central Atlantic that at some point).
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Quoting jeffs713:

No run-off mitigation because Las Vegas is in a DESERT. As in they get 4.5" in an average YEAR. There isn't much need for runoff mitigation when there rarely is runoff to speak of...

That's a question of what risk people are willing to tolerate by allowing the full effects of the rare rain event. I'm not too sure that 1.75" is at the upper end of what they could expect to happen, but it is their call. I don't live there.

Retention ponds can also be hazards in themselves. A person in Houston drove into a deep retention pond just off the roadway and drowned a couple of years ago. She was trying to get her car out of a flooded street onto higher ground.

There is many a slip twixt the cup and the lip.
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I think we'll see another Cape Verde storm or two.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nadine is *probably* the last CV storm of the season, our next threat will be to watch for development off a cold front in a little over a week from now. Until then, Nadine will be the only game in town.


After that, judging by the amount of stalled out cold fronts that might be coming down I expect temperatures to not only begin to drop in the United States to below average levels but the increased chance of tail end cold front develops in the SW Caribbean by the end of the month into early next month. The Madden-Julian Oscillation might be returning by then as well which will be a benefactor to such developments.

I'm thinking maybe two more developments this month and one, perhaps two named in October in the SW Caribbean. Will be interesting to see how that unfolds.
October always concerns me..Florida gets whacked a lot during that month and more than any other state.. Looked all the way back to the 1500,s and found numerous severe October strikes. I have been through my share in October myself down there.
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Quoting RetiredChiefP:


I am in Humble. A few rumbles of thunder that have my dogs growling at the back door. Mostly sunny here though.


Just walked outside...disregard the "mostly sunny" part of my last post. SW of Humble, and over IAH looks pretty dark and forboding. Lol, my grass sure could use some rain though.
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the 00z Euro wants to name everything, including 1 or 2 pop-up Tropical Storms off the U.S. east coast.

Euro calls for cat 3 Nadine.
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Quoting Stats56:
Interesting, I am at work in North Harris county.

Not much happening - at the moment.

Thanks


I am in Humble. A few rumbles of thunder that have my dogs growling at the back door. Mostly sunny here though.
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Rain rain and rain!!!!
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Interesting, I am at work in North Harris county.

Not much happening - at the moment.

Thanks
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Harris
Special Weather Statement in effect



.FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE TODAY

RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS COUPLED WITH A VERY BUOYANT  ATMOSPHERE AND INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES WILL YIELD BRIEF FUNNEL  CLOUDS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS  WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO DETECT ON RADAR. THESE FUNNEL  CLOUDS COULD BRIEFLY EXTEND TO THE GROUND AND BECOME A SHORT LIVED  TORNADO. STAY ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS AS THESE  FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY. A FUNNEL CLOUD  WAS REPORTED BETWEEN ANGLETON AND DANBURY ALONG HIGHWAY 35 AT 957  AM.


Copied from TWC iPad app just now. Harris County, Houston, Texas area.
Be safe all of my fellow Houston weather junkies. Back to lurking.
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Quoting WxLogic:
Thx Doc... I wonder if there's a place where we can see NASA 872 data that is being collected, but I better not raise my hopes of that happening for the time being. :(
The NASA dropsonde data is available - I just can't make head or tails of it. Anyone able to help decode? The manual decoder at Tropical Atlantic can't handle it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Interesting little feature in the Bahama's which is throwing a lot of showers into south Fla....

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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
28) & 47) Since I couldn't get on last night b4 she was named, I'm sure Chuck won't mind if I take a little liscense with his lyric "Nadine, honey it is you".

RTS - while I agree they probably didn't plan as well as they could have, geologic conditions out west are much different and for them 1.75 is a lot of rain, doesn't take nearly as much to cause flooding out there.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Why you can't trust RAW T# for intensity, it has dropped back down to 3.5.
It's a good point.

The key is that the numbers were hovering in the range of 4, until an eye seemed discernible on the satellite imagery. Then they spiked up to 5. As the putative eye has become occluded, they've fallen back below 4.

If Nadine's CDO is masking a forming eye, then they'll spike back upwards as that becomes clear. But if the eye was illusory, a swirl in the cloud pattern, they won't.

Much more interesting, to me at least, is that the CI number's been holding steady around 4 for a few hours, but was omitted from the 11am discussion. With or without an eye, CIMSS thinks this storm's a hurricane.

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Thx Doc... I wonder if there's a place where we can see NASA 872 data that is being collected, but I better not raise my hopes of that happening for the time being. :(
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Quoting Hurrihistory:
The Cape Verde Season has now ended. Don't expect anything else till the start of October and that would have to be in the Caribbean Sea. Sorry guys.

Is that kinda like declaring the rainy season to have started? Also, has mother nature been informed of the CV season being over? What evidence do you have for the CV season to be so definitively over?
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Nadine is *probably* the last CV storm of the season, our next threat will be to watch for development off a cold front in a little over a week from now. Until then, Nadine will be the only game in town.


After that, judging by the amount of stalled out cold fronts that might be coming down I expect temperatures to not only begin to drop in the United States to below average levels but the increased chance of tail end cold front develops in the SW Caribbean by the end of the month into early next month. The Madden-Julian Oscillation might be returning by then as well which will be a benefactor to such developments.

I'm thinking maybe two more developments this month and one, perhaps two named in October in the SW Caribbean. Will be interesting to see how that unfolds.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

From your link...


I was confused by that last picture until I went to the site and backed up the timeline and found that they all look like that - it's not rain but muck on the lens. The first one is rain, but just a few drops.
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Quoting RTSplayer:



No run-off mitigation for all the streets, hotels, casinos, restaurants, and parking lots.

Relatively stupid civil engineers and other engineers, and stupid zoning laws, IMO.


1.75 inches should NOT do this.

If they think that's bad, they should see the 17.5 inches we got from Isaac in 3 days. That would make lots of citizens cry for real, and governments and engineers might grow a brain.

No run-off mitigation because Las Vegas is in a DESERT. As in they get 4.5" in an average YEAR. There isn't much need for runoff mitigation when there rarely is runoff to speak of...
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Quoting Hurrihistory:
The Cape Verde Season has now ended. Don't expect anything else till the start of October and that would have to be in the Caribbean Sea. Sorry guys.



New GFS is not done, but is hinting that the disturbance SW of Cape Verde will try to re-intensify. By the time you adjust for initialization errors in pressure, that Low should become a 1004mb low by the end of the run.

It also shows another decent wave coming off Africa.

This is all within the first 51 hours.
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Is it time to wake up from my nap? Uh...no...everything "out to sea." Zzzzzzzz.
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Why you can't trust RAW T# for intensity, it has dropped back down to 3.5.
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Quoting RTSplayer:



No run-off mitigation for all the streets, hotels, casinos, restaurants, and parking lots.

Relatively stupid civil engineers and other engineers, and stupid zoning laws, IMO.


1.75 inches should NOT do this.

If they think that's bad, they should see the 17.5 inches we got from Isaac in 3 days. That would make lots of citizens cry for real, and governments and engineers might grow a brain.

to true.
Goodnight all.
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Thank you for the updated post Dr. Masters
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The Cape Verde Season has now ended. Don't expect anything else till the start of October and that would have to be in the Caribbean Sea. Sorry guys.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Worth posting again from yesterday. The AussieMets ENSO watch. El Nino not that strong (has leveled off) and looks like a potential swing back towards Neutral conditions by the Spring of 2013. If that comes to pass, that has a lot of implications. Not as great of a Southern tier Spring severe weather season and potential neutral or even a swing towards La Nina for the Summer/Fall Atlantic season next year.

Pacific near El Nio thresholds; positive Indian Ocean Dipole
Issued on Tuesday 11 September | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures remain at values close to El Nio thresholds. Other ENSO indicators such as the trade winds and tropical cloud patterns show patterns more typical of neutral conditions. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is also presently within neutral values.

Regardless of whether El Nio thresholds are reached, the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average. This, combined with other influences on Australian climate such as cooler than normal waters to the north of the Australian continent and the patterns of cloud and ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, tends to favour below average spring rainfall over much of Australia.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will maintain values close to El Nio thresholds before returning to more neutral values towards the end of 2012 or early 2013.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently positive, with values of the IOD index consistently above positive thresholds for the past 7 weeks. Outlooks from the Bureau%u2019s climate model indicate the IOD will likely remain positive throughout the remainder of spring. A positive IOD is usually associated with decreased spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia.





It looks like it don't know what it wants. Positive or negative.

Climate Models...
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Storms flood parts of Vegas, Navajo land, Calif. desert communities, Utah town

Residents in four Southwest states were drying out Wednesday after thunderstorms flooded Las Vegas streets, stranded Navajo families in northern Arizona, left two mobile home communities in Southern California deep in water and caused a dike to fail in a Utah town.

In the Las Vegas area, the Tuesday storms delayed flights, snarled traffic and prompted helicopter rescues of stranded motorists. A golf course worker was reported missing and a search for the man resumed Wednesday, NBC affiliate KSNV-TV reported.
Television news video showed school buses inching along roads after school east of downtown Las Vegas, and muddy water up to the lower sills of windows of stucco homes in other neighborhoods.
In southeast Las Vegas, authorities urged the residents of about 45 homes damaged by flooding to leave in case electrical fires are sparked.
Dozens of cars were swamped by water up to their headlights in a parking lot outside the Thomas & Mack sports arena at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
Firefighters responded to more than 20 calls about people in stalled cars .



A Las Vegas police helicopter was dispatched during the height of the storm to pluck several people from swamped vehicles on roadways.
More than 1.75 inches of rain were reported in downtown Las Vegas. The rainfall amounts put the region on pace to exceed the 4.5 inches of rain it normally gets in a year.
Tuesday was also the wettest September day on record in Las Vegas, weather.com meteorologist Nick Wiltgen reported.

Calif. mobile home parks hit hard

In California's Coachella Valley, a thunderstorm on Tuesday dropped more than the average annual rainfall there in one night alone, settling for six to eight hours over Mecca and Thermal, desert towns 150 miles southeast of Los Angeles.
In Thermal, the downpour flooded the Desert Mobile Home Park better known as Duroville, a community of mostly migrant workers with about 1,500 people, including 900 children, that has long been the subject of legal fights as Riverside County officials attempt to relocate residents.
More than a foot of water stood in the southern end of the park, knocking out power to about 800 people for much of the day.
"None of us had ever been through anything like this," said Tom Flynn, the court-appointed receiver for Duroville. "That much water in a dilapidated mobile home park was something to see."
The lack of power knocked out electric motors on both of the park's wells, leaving no fresh water until one was revived and county workers brought several tons of bottled water.
The park has no paved streets or drainage, and health officials were concerned about overflow from two ponds that serve as the community's sewers.
Between 60 and 80 people had evacuated from the park and were spending the night at a high school. "The poorest of the poor were hit the hardest," Flynn said.
St. Anthony's Mobile Home Park in Mecca also was affected, but fared better than Duroville. Video clips showed residents wading through knee-high water and cars creeping through flooded residential streets.
The storm dropped 5.51 inches of rain near Mecca and 3.23 inches of rain near Thermal, meteorologist Mark Moede said. The average annual rainfall in arid Thermal is just shy of 3 inches, he said.
"That's an amazing amount of rain," Moede said. "It's unusual anywhere to get a storm that sits stationary for five to eight hours."

Arizona and Utah flooding

On the Navajo Nation reservation in northeastern Arizona, many of Tuba City's roads were underwater and residents stuck in their homes. State Route 264, one of two main arteries in and out of town, was closed after a bridge washed out about a mile outside of the community, Tuba City Chapter Manager Benjamin Davis said.

Flooding was reported in some homes but no residents were displaced, Davis said.
Meanwhile, a dike that broke during heavy morning rain flooded nearly four square blocks in the southern Utah city of Santa Clara. More than 30 homes and business were evacuated after the break.



City Manager Edward Dickie said the dike along a retention pond sent a deluge of water into downtown.
"It didn't just breach. It broke. It's gone," he said, adding that the flooding quickly receded as water drained into rivers and creeks.


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No run-off mitigation for all the streets, hotels, casinos, restaurants, and parking lots.

Relatively stupid civil engineers and other engineers, and stupid zoning laws, IMO.


1.75 inches should NOT do this.

If they think that's bad, they should see the 17.5 inches we got from Isaac in 3 days. That would make lots of citizens cry for real, and governments and engineers might grow a brain.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


It's coming....Click picture for link to radar site..


From your link...





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2 CloudGatherer 50kt storms don't have eyes.

What became HurricaneVince did...
...which had a few WUbers fuming about the NHC's lack of an earlier Call.
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WRF radar forecast and Atlantic Basin loop...
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Worth posting again from yesterday. The AussieMets ENSO watch. El Nino not that strong (has leveled off) and looks like a potential swing back towards Neutral conditions by the Spring of 2013. If that comes to pass, that has a lot of implications. Not as great of a Southern tier Spring severe weather season and potential neutral or even a swing towards La Nina for the Summer/Fall Atlantic season next year.

Pacific near El Niño thresholds; positive Indian Ocean Dipole
Issued on Tuesday 11 September | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures remain at values close to El Niño thresholds. Other ENSO indicators such as the trade winds and tropical cloud patterns show patterns more typical of neutral conditions. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is also presently within neutral values.

Regardless of whether El Niño thresholds are reached, the tropical Pacific remains warmer than average. This, combined with other influences on Australian climate such as cooler than normal waters to the north of the Australian continent and the patterns of cloud and ocean temperatures in the Indian Ocean, tends to favour below average spring rainfall over much of Australia.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean will maintain values close to El Niño thresholds before returning to more neutral values towards the end of 2012 or early 2013.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently positive, with values of the IOD index consistently above positive thresholds for the past 7 weeks. Outlooks from the Bureau’s climate model indicate the IOD will likely remain positive throughout the remainder of spring. A positive IOD is usually associated with decreased spring rainfall over parts of southern, central and northern Australia.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting KarenRei:
Hmm, no wait, I take that back. Looking south, the visibility to the mountains looks like it may have dropped in the past 5-10 minutes, so maybe there's something hitting the folk in Keflav%uFFFDk but not us and possibly coming our way? Hard to say. At the same time, we're getting even more blue.


It's coming....Click picture for link to radar site..
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather