Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting KarenRei:
Hmm, no wait, I take that back. Looking south, the visibility to the mountains looks like it may have dropped in the past 5-10 minutes, so maybe there's something hitting the folk in Keflav%uFFFDk but not us and possibly coming our way? Hard to say. At the same time, we're getting even more blue.


It's coming....Click picture for link to radar site..
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Quoting aspectre:
Good to have you back with us, KarenRei. Long time no see.


Thanks. :) Seeing that Leslie was coming (and with all the purdy clouds, she's getting hard not to notice!) reminded me that I hadn't stopped by in a while - apart from a brief stop by a couple days ago, I don't think I've visited the forum since I moved to Iceland.

Oooh, can't see the mountains at all to the south now - rains definitely getting closer.

First an earthquake, then a blizzard, now an (ex) tropical storm.... hmm, I think we need a good old-fashioned volcanic eruption next. :) Preferably from a volcano with a name that will provide us much amusement hearing people overseas try to pronounce it. ;)
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Storms flood parts of Vegas, Navajo land, Calif. desert communities, Utah town

Residents in four Southwest states were drying out Wednesday after thunderstorms flooded Las Vegas streets, stranded Navajo families in northern Arizona, left two mobile home communities in Southern California deep in water and caused a dike to fail in a Utah town.

In the Las Vegas area, the Tuesday storms delayed flights, snarled traffic and prompted helicopter rescues of stranded motorists. A golf course worker was reported missing and a search for the man resumed Wednesday, NBC affiliate KSNV-TV reported.
Television news video showed school buses inching along roads after school east of downtown Las Vegas, and muddy water up to the lower sills of windows of stucco homes in other neighborhoods.
In southeast Las Vegas, authorities urged the residents of about 45 homes damaged by flooding to leave in case electrical fires are sparked.
Dozens of cars were swamped by water up to their headlights in a parking lot outside the Thomas & Mack sports arena at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
Firefighters responded to more than 20 calls about people in stalled cars .



A Las Vegas police helicopter was dispatched during the height of the storm to pluck several people from swamped vehicles on roadways.
More than 1.75 inches of rain were reported in downtown Las Vegas. The rainfall amounts put the region on pace to exceed the 4.5 inches of rain it normally gets in a year.
Tuesday was also the wettest September day on record in Las Vegas, weather.com meteorologist Nick Wiltgen reported.

Calif. mobile home parks hit hard

In California's Coachella Valley, a thunderstorm on Tuesday dropped more than the average annual rainfall there in one night alone, settling for six to eight hours over Mecca and Thermal, desert towns 150 miles southeast of Los Angeles.
In Thermal, the downpour flooded the Desert Mobile Home Park better known as Duroville, a community of mostly migrant workers with about 1,500 people, including 900 children, that has long been the subject of legal fights as Riverside County officials attempt to relocate residents.
More than a foot of water stood in the southern end of the park, knocking out power to about 800 people for much of the day.
"None of us had ever been through anything like this," said Tom Flynn, the court-appointed receiver for Duroville. "That much water in a dilapidated mobile home park was something to see."
The lack of power knocked out electric motors on both of the park's wells, leaving no fresh water until one was revived and county workers brought several tons of bottled water.
The park has no paved streets or drainage, and health officials were concerned about overflow from two ponds that serve as the community's sewers.
Between 60 and 80 people had evacuated from the park and were spending the night at a high school. "The poorest of the poor were hit the hardest," Flynn said.
St. Anthony's Mobile Home Park in Mecca also was affected, but fared better than Duroville. Video clips showed residents wading through knee-high water and cars creeping through flooded residential streets.
The storm dropped 5.51 inches of rain near Mecca and 3.23 inches of rain near Thermal, meteorologist Mark Moede said. The average annual rainfall in arid Thermal is just shy of 3 inches, he said.
"That's an amazing amount of rain," Moede said. "It's unusual anywhere to get a storm that sits stationary for five to eight hours."

Arizona and Utah flooding

On the Navajo Nation reservation in northeastern Arizona, many of Tuba City's roads were underwater and residents stuck in their homes. State Route 264, one of two main arteries in and out of town, was closed after a bridge washed out about a mile outside of the community, Tuba City Chapter Manager Benjamin Davis said.

Flooding was reported in some homes but no residents were displaced, Davis said.
Meanwhile, a dike that broke during heavy morning rain flooded nearly four square blocks in the southern Utah city of Santa Clara. More than 30 homes and business were evacuated after the break.



City Manager Edward Dickie said the dike along a retention pond sent a deluge of water into downtown.
"It didn't just breach. It broke. It's gone," he said, adding that the flooding quickly receded as water drained into rivers and creeks.


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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTSplayer:
Nadine currently ranks as a 4 on HSI.

size: 1
Intensity: 2.77
Total: 3.77

Rounds up to a 4.

Since NHC records and forecasts intensity in 5kts increments, the maximum HSI score for a TS is 11, while the minimum is a 2.

that's a pretty big gap between a low end ts and a high end ts.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Good to have you back with us, KarenRei. Long time no see.

All times in GMT. Derived from NHC's 12Sept12pm ATCF data for TropicalStormNadine
4FL3-Fellsmere :: WKR-Walker'sCay :: []-[] ::

The easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Nadine's most recently reported position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Nadine's 2 most recent positions its closest approach (within 18miles or 29kilometres) to an inhabited coastline.
12Sept12pm: TS.Nadine was heading for passage 10.3miles(16.6kilometres)North of Walker'sCay before heading for passage over IndianRiverShores

Copy&paste 4fl3, wkr, 16.4n42.7w-17.1n43.3w, 17.1n43.3w-17.5n44.6w, 17.5n44.6w-18.3n46.0w, 18.3n46.0w-18.7n47.0w, 18.3n46.0w-27.710n80.373w, 18.3n46.0w-27.411n78.374w, 27.263n78.403w-27.411n78.374w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
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Nadine currently ranks as a 4 on HSI.

size: 1
Intensity: 2.77
Total: 3.77

Rounds up to a 4.

Since NHC records and forecasts intensity in 5kts increments, the maximum HSI score for a TS is 11, while the minimum is a 2.
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
which blob there's like 4


Thats what I meant ...It was one yesterday and now there are blobs everywhere ...
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18. 7544
Quoting VR46L:


Very well , I maybe mistaken just that things can blow up quick in the Gulf and I dont believe anyone in the Gulf region should completely dismiss a piece of tropical mischief until its a definite no . JMO


bahamma blob looks better that the gom blob lol
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Thanks Dr. M. Looks like Nadine sleeps with the fishes...........Nice favorable (for the Caribbean/US) pattern for the peak of the CV season at the moment.
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Quoting jeffs713:

The proto-blob in the BOC doesn't look like much (no focus or vort), while the proto-blob in the northern GOM is related to a forming ULL.


Very well , I maybe mistaken just that things can blow up quick in the Gulf and I dont believe anyone in the Gulf region should completely dismiss a piece of tropical mischief until its a definite no . JMO
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Quoting KarenRei:
Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.


Hmm, not here she's not. Even just got a nice patch of blue opening up. Perhaps somewhere else in Iceland? I'm at Reykjavíkurflugvöllur (just west of Perlan in Reykjavík) if that matters. All we're getting here is a purdy cloud show, lots of ropy, tendrilly "cthuhlu-clouds" below undulating blankets of various brightnesses.


I love that you called them "cthuhlu-clouds". haha
Awesome. :)
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Thanks Dr. Masters.
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Thanks Jeff...
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11. 7544
bahamma blob watch today
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Quoting VR46L:
blobification in the Gulf may need to be watched


The proto-blob in the BOC doesn't look like much (no focus or vort), while the proto-blob in the northern GOM is related to a forming ULL.
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Hmm, no wait, I take that back. Looking south, the visibility to the mountains looks like it may have dropped in the past 5-10 minutes, so maybe there's something hitting the folk in Keflavk but not us and possibly coming our way? Hard to say. At the same time, we're getting even more blue.
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Thank you Dr. Masters
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Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.


Hmm, not here she's not. Even just got a nice patch of blue opening up. Perhaps somewhere else in Iceland? I'm at Reykjavíkurflugvöllur (just west of Perlan in Reykjavík) if that matters. All we're getting here is a purdy cloud show, lots of ropy, tendrilly "cthuhlu-clouds" below undulating blankets of various brightnesses.
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blobification in the Gulf may need to be watched

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thanks
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So the NHC has dropped the CIMSS-ADT estimate from its forecast entirely, presumably because it's so far out of line with the (already old) SAB/TAFB estimates. But 50kt storms don't have eyes. I continue to think that Nadine will make the formal upgrade to hurricane at 5pm. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification index is exactly right about this storm. She's just gotten herself fully organized, and she's going to put on a show for us.
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Thanks Dr. M
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather