Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Good Morning. Reviewing this season so far, we cannot just look at the lack of a major impacting the Caribbean or US on the Atlantic end. Looking across the board at the numbers on the Atlantic side and on the Pacific side (both E-Pac and W-Pac), this is has been one of the most active seasons for both basins that I have seen in a long time. Not surprising on the Pacific side because of the warmer temps due to the marginal El Nino but quite surprising numbers wise on the Atlantic side as well......Very high numbers across the board this year.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Good morning Wh98, its got to be a cat5.


Morning Isaac.

I'd have to agree

Rapid Intensification for real
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Quoting Grothar:
First big split on Nadine. Some models now moving her more NW than the sharp curve to the NE.



Not gonna lie gro, that's one of the biggest doom model cone ive ever seen....
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Total and complete wow.

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Quoting weatherh98:
Assuming a super typhoon soon


Good morning Wh98, its got to be a cat5.
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Assuming a super typhoon soon

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Only one storm has reached the absolute top of the Dvorak technique scale (T8.0/170 kt) and her name was Monica.

2006APR23 193300 8.0 868.6/ +10.6 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 15.99 -80.64 EYE/C 22 IR -11.32 -135.55 COMBO
2006APR23 203300 8.0 868.5/ +10.5 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 15.01 -81.99 EYE/C 18 IR -11.42 -135.42 COMBO
2006APR23 213300 8.0 868.6/ +10.6 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 8.83 -83.08 EYE/C 17 IR -11.33 -135.28 COMBO
2006APR23 223300 8.0 868.6/ +10.6 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 17.81 -82.66 EYE/C 18 IR -11.33 -135.25 COMBO
2006APR24 000000 8.0 868.5/ +10.5 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 19.81 -81.22 EYE/C 17 IR -11.45 -135.05 COMBO
2006APR24 003300 8.0 868.5/ +10.5 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 9.75 -80.54 EYE/C 20 IR -11.46 -135.07 COMBO


That looks like that was one powerful storm, I think Sanba could get close to the limit if not hit it.
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First big split on Nadine. Some models now moving her more NW than the sharp curve to the NE.

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always hate to see comment 666 so i will make it 667. very cool in wilmington nc this morning. sweater weather

well ok 668
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Only one storm has reached the absolute top of the Dvorak technique scale (T8.0/170 kt) and her name was Monica.

2006APR23 193300 8.0 868.6/ +10.6 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 15.99 -80.64 EYE/C 22 IR -11.32 -135.55 COMBO
2006APR23 203300 8.0 868.5/ +10.5 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 15.01 -81.99 EYE/C 18 IR -11.42 -135.42 COMBO
2006APR23 213300 8.0 868.6/ +10.6 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 8.83 -83.08 EYE/C 17 IR -11.33 -135.28 COMBO
2006APR23 223300 8.0 868.6/ +10.6 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 17.81 -82.66 EYE/C 18 IR -11.33 -135.25 COMBO
2006APR24 000000 8.0 868.5/ +10.5 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 19.81 -81.22 EYE/C 17 IR -11.45 -135.05 COMBO
2006APR24 003300 8.0 868.5/ +10.5 /170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF 9.75 -80.54 EYE/C 20 IR -11.46 -135.07 COMBO

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My blog on Nadine, Kristy, and Sanba
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Nadine
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Wow.


13/0832 UTC 15.9N 129.6E T6.5/6.5 SANBA -- West Pacific



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Today is Humberto-Ike day in southeast Texas. Check out Humberto here and Ike. Lots of links/info on those pages. I especially like the Humberto radar animations. For other links on major weather events in southeast Texas check here.

Edit: Ike link not showing up. Not awake enough to figure out the html.
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T-numbers are still climbing!

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 915.9mb/146.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.4 7.4

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Nam at 84 hours............
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Nam at 72 hours...hmmm wonder why the gfs doesnt show it..
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653. SLU
Doesn't get much better than this ...

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gfs at 96 hours...........
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Gotta a little spin still moving along to the West below us.

Link
Yes, I see. I just viewed a water vapor loop of the GOM, and it looks interesting.....vapor extending to the north towards Naples....wonder if this will grow and concern the WC FL coast. Have a good day in the Keys!
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....BLOB MOVING WEST TOWARDS THE GULF
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Quoting wxchaser97:
If this isn't a strong cat4-cat5 then I don't know what is. Movement looks to be steady to the NE, have a great day aislinnpaps.


Check out how big Sanba is. It's huge...

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Gotta a little spin still moving along to the West below us.

Link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2012 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 16:08:58 N Lon : 129:37:14 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 921.9mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +17.7C Cloud Region Temp : -77.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 101km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.9 degrees


amazing...yes 140kt makes a cat 5...I wish those were in the Atlantic...but harmless
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Good morning. Now I know why my favorite station is hit or miss.


"Forecast cloudy for Sand Key weather station".

Ladder damaged; weather station may be moved

BY JOHN DeSANTIS Citizen Staff
jdesantis@keysnews.com

A malfunctioning weather station that mariners say is essential to safety on local waters may require a location change, and further delay before it can be reliably operated.

The weather equipment is located at Sand Key Light, which lies on a reef about 6 miles southwest of Key West.

As a component of NOAA's National Data Buoy Center, it transmits detailed information about wind, rain and other weather issues that are accessible on a government website.

Mariners began complaining in early August that the system was either not working or only working intermittently.

"Every time before we handle a vessel we visit that site to see what the weather is, the wind speed, conditions and directions before we make a decision whether we move a ship," said Bob Maguire of the Key West Bar Pilots Association, whose members move big tankers, cruise ships and other vessels through and into Key West Harbor. "Most days I can look out the window of my house but if it is a borderline situation such as tankers, a lot more information is needed."

The bar pilots will not move tankers if the wind at Sand Key is more than 25 knots, or 28.7 mph, in accordance with their regulations.

Maguire wrote to the National Buoy Data Center Aug. 6 reporting a problem with the light, officially called SANF1.

"When Tropical Storm Debby was in our area at the end of June 2012, we had five days in a row of overcast, rain and wind. SANF1 failed each evening and did not start transmitting again until hours after daylight," Maguire's letter states. "When those conditions are present, that is when we need accurate information the most. The local maritime community depends on SANF1 for information on the current conditions at the reef."

The problem, according to Jon Rizzo, warning coordinator at the National Weather Service's Key West forecast office, "has to do with the batteries on board."

"The instruments are solar powered and when the batteries get old they cannot hold their charges and it takes longer for them to charge," Rizzo said. "You can have data sometimes from noon on a sunny day to about 7 p.m."

Rizzo agrees with mariners that the data collected and transmitted by the Sand Key station is vital.

"The most important would be warning verification," Rizzo said. "If we have a strong thunderstorm with gale force winds in a limited area, that station there is extremely important. If you get verification it helps areas that are downwind."

The nation's buoy program has been subject to budget cuts, and further cuts to educational institutions that have helped maintain the weather stations haven't helped.

Although there has been talk of the program's near-elimination in some places, NOAA officials have said there are no plans to dismantle or decommission the stations serving the Keys.

The Sand Key light, said officials at the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi where the program is headquartered, will be placed on a priority list for repair. But they needed to enlist help from the Coast Guard, which owns the tower.

Steven Cucullu, program manager at Stennis, said the ladder used to access the tower, which technicians would have to climb, was deemed unsafe. The Coast Guard was asked to replace or repair the ladder.

A preliminary assessment was done, according to Jeff Hunter, chief of the Key West area Aids To Navigation division of the Coast Guard, and the news is not good.

Hunter said the ladder was in a state of complete disrepair and that a dock used to access the tower is dangerously damaged.

"We may just remove that weather equipment and put it elsewhere nearby," Hunter said.

The light's beacon is still functioning, Hunter said, and whether the state of the structure will allow for it to be serviced in the future will have to be determined by later assessments.

Until then the only reliable local data comes from Sombrero Light in Marathon. But for Maguire and other mariners that's too far. He expressed gratitude to the Coast Guard for looking into the matter so quickly after they were notified by NOAA. If the weather equipment must be moved, Maguire said, he is certain the Coast Guard will find a spot close enough to Sand Key.

"It's like a tool bag," Maguire said. "You can get your weather from the airport, from Boca Chica, from a weather station or Weather Underground. There are other light towers farther up the Keys. But you want to use the best tool you have in your kit and right now that is Sand Key Light."
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2012 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 16:08:58 N Lon : 129:37:14 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 921.9mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +17.7C Cloud Region Temp : -77.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 101km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.9 degrees
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If this isn't a strong cat4-cat5 then I don't know what is. Movement looks to be steady to the NE, have a great day aislinnpaps.
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nhc says this 1. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Everyone have a wonderful Thursday!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Sanba is probably a Category 5 typhoon.


No doubt about it, look at how beautiful Sanba looks.
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TXPQ24 KNES 130935
TCSWNP

A. 17W (SANBA)

B. 13/0832Z

C. 15.9N

D. 129.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CURRENT DT IS 7.0 BASED ON WARM MEDIUM GRAY EYE WITH A
WHITE RING EMBEDDED IN WHITE. AVERAGE DT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OF 6.7
ALLOWS FOR CURRENT FT OF 6.5 TO BREAK THE RULE LIMITING THE INCREASE OF
THE FT TO BE 2.5 IN 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTESIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LIDDICK






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Sanba is probably a Category 5 typhoon.

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things can happen quick near s fl. this time of yr area is becoming interesting
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Nadine looks terrible...
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I wish Nadine:


Was like Sanba and still going out to sea:
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. I dont see the overnight models posted so I assume that they dont develop anything.

The 00z GFS does develop another cv storm and the 6z gets a couple of weak systems going.
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633. beell
Quoting KoritheMan:


Is there ever a silver lining to weather?


Sure there is. You just won't find much of it on the internets or the TV.
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Good morning. I dont see the overnight models posted so I assume that they dont develop anything.
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Quoting islander101010:
yellow on s.florida leftover of i storm?

From tropical discussion:

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA INTO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 88W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
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Quoting islander101010:
yellow on s.florida leftover of i storm?

No its not, just a surface trough.
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yellow on s.florida leftover of i storm?
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Quoting Ameister12:
Sanba probably getting close to becoming a category 5 typhoon.


unbelievable
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Recent microwave pass of Nadine.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather