Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Recent microwave pass of Nadine.
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Sanba, likely just took a jog to the Northeast, as it doesn't seem to be a continuous motion to the northeast, next few images will likely confirm if this is a wobble or a true motion.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. What an absolutely perfect storm:



There's a very good chance this will become a Cat 5.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2012 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 16:01:10 N Lon : 129:32:29 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 927.0mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : 18.2C Cloud Region Temp : -77.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Listed currently at 115kts by JTWC, which is probably way low.

This storm is probably nearing cat5 soon as everything says it looks so good and is very strong, good morning MA.
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If you watch satellite loops right now, Sanba is moving NE, not what the forecast suggests:

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Good morning. What an absolutely perfect storm:



There's a very good chance this will become a Cat 5.


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 SEP 2012 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 16:01:10 N Lon : 129:32:29 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 927.0mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : 18.2C Cloud Region Temp : -77.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Listed currently at 115kts by JTWC, which is probably way low.
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Sanba is looking really really healthy and hopefully she doesn't affect land as a strong typhoon.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, everyone. Remembering Ike here today, remembering everyone thinking how/why do we get two hurricanes less than two weeks apart.

Good Morning, hurricane Ike was a very bad storm which I remember pretty well.
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Good morning, everyone. Remembering Ike here today, remembering everyone thinking how/why do we get two hurricanes less than two weeks apart.
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Good Morning everyone, Nadine looking good and Sanba is great.
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Sanba probably getting close to becoming a category 5 typhoon.
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Quoting BrazoriaMan:
Ike is the exact reason they seperated Cat status and storm surge. So many people here were thinking" Oh it's just a Cat 2, weve been there done that no problem". Unfortunately some of those people never made it with the Cat 4 Storm surge Ike brought, God bless em. There isnt much you can do because people who have been through hurricanes think the next one will be the same. What they do not understand is that every storm is different, different trees/limbs fall, storm surges can be worse than before, and so on. Anyone along the coast needs to evac for a cat 1 in my opinion, unless they are in a safe enough building where possibility of harm is very low. But even then, if you can get out, just get out.
Or maybe it was Katrina...landfall as Cat 3 but with with record surges more like Cat 4 or 5 in many areas.

The forecasters predict storm surge values separate from storm intensity and have been doing that for a long time. It is the public that just thinks about the "Cat N" thing too simplistically, so the NHC should come up with a better way to communicate with the public, as we have seen with Katrina, Ike and now with Isaac, among others.
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
513 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-132115 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
513 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY METRO AND TO THE SOUTH. THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BREEZY EAST WINDS OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE WAVES OF UP TO 5
FEET...MOSTLY AWAY FROM SHORE. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
BREEZY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND
GRADUALLY DIE DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS MAY REACH CAUTIONARY
OR ADVISORY LEVELS AT TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
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.............good morning folks,7-day forecast for the Tampa Bay area...notice the last 3 days on this..something is in central florida???
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From this.....



to this.....






in 4 hrs.... WOW!!!!!
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608. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
WTPQ30 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 1216 SANBA (1216)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE.
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 130600 UTC IS GOOD.
TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE.
TY WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 6.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=
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607. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TYPHOON SANBA (T1216)
15:00 PM JST September 13 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Sanba (930 hPa) located at 15.6N 129.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 18.8N 129.2E - 100 (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 22.2N 127.9E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 27.1N 126.7E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Okinawa Island Waters
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606. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY SANBA 1216 (1216) INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC
00HR 15.6N 129.6E 940HPA 50M/S (100 knots)

30KTS 300KM
50KTS 130KM
P12HR NNW 15KM/H
P+24HR 18.7N 128.7E 930HPA 55M/S
P+48HR 22.1N 127.5E 920HPA 60M/S (120 knots)
P+72HR 26.3N 126.1E 930HPA 55M/S
P+96HR 30.7N 125.3E 950HPA 45M/S
P+120HR 36.0N 124.9E 970HPA 35M/S=
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On this day 24 years ago...

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604. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2012SEP13 050100 5.9 932.4/ +2.6 /112.4 5.9 6.0 7.0 2.2T/6hr

945 hPa as of 12:00 PM JST JMA advisory. This ADT shows around 930 hPa.
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Quoting gippgig:
Anyone notice that Nadine is listed as having winds of 60 mph with gusts to 55?
The October 2004 issue of Scientific American has an article about "Controlling Hurricanes". It should work, but we really need a better understanding of them.
Not that I particularly buy into any of that nonsense, but I am rather curious now to see that article.

*scratches head*
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Anyone notice that Nadine is listed as having winds of 60 mph with gusts to 55?
The October 2004 issue of Scientific American has an article about "Controlling Hurricanes". It should work, but we really need a better understanding of them.
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The big story in the global tropics is Typhoon Sanba. While it is officially analysed as a 105 MPH category 2 storm by the JTWC, this storm has the satellite presentation of a solid category 4 (per ADT and SAB dvorak techniques), though it likely has winds of a category 3 storm (under rapid intensification it takes a little bit for winds to catch up). Regardless, very impressive storm, and the Philippines are very fortunate this system will be moving off to the north. All conditions are favorable for intensification to continue (SSTs at 30c, ample TCHP, forward motion is fairly slow, but not too slow, no signs of dry air, no proximity to land, shear is light, and divergence is good in all quadrants thanks to radial outflow).

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Evening everyone
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Afternoon all. 3:30pm here in Sydney, Australia.
I am in the process of putting together information on our up coming fire season which could be the most serious in 50 years. I will put it all in a blog. Once it's finished I will let everyone know.
Cheers
AussieStorm
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Isaac's impacts are still being felt and he will never soon be forgotten. The "only cat1" thing bugs me though, something needs to be done about that.


Ike is the exact reason they seperated Cat status and storm surge. So many people here were thinking" Oh it's just a Cat 2, weve been there done that no problem". Unfortunately some of those people never made it with the Cat 4 Storm surge Ike brought, God bless em. There isnt much you can do because people who have been through hurricanes think the next one will be the same. What they do not understand is that every storm is different, different trees/limbs fall, storm surges can be worse than before, and so on. Anyone along the coast needs to evac for a cat 1 in my opinion, unless they are in a safe enough building where possibility of harm is very low. But even then, if you can get out, just get out.
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Quoting Stormchaser121:
September 13, 2007 and 2008. Hurricane Humberto...and Ike.
Ooh, scary!
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September 13, 2007 and 2008. Hurricane Humberto...and Ike.
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Quoting lobdelse81:

Don't forget the delicious pumpkin cheesecake that comes out seasonally at Cheesecake Factory during that time. Yum :)


Pumpkin Cheesecake rocks! 2 slices please lol.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I can vouch for that! Put me through all the hurricanes you wish, just let me keep my electricity!


Amen to that! While it was neat(kinda like camping out), the heat and humidity stinks with no ac. We had a generator(thanks to Edouards bark and no bite), so it helped keep some of the basics going. Def grateful for that. I think the weirdest thing was walking outside, hearing no airplanes, no birds, just generators going.
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Sucks for you, doesn't it? haha
I make a lot of enemies.
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Autumn! Cool, crisp, dry air after months of unrelenting heat. Beautiful changing leaves, nostalgic scents. I just love Autumn. :)

Don't forget the delicious pumpkin cheesecake that comes out seasonally at Cheesecake Factory during that time. Yum :)
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Autumn! Cool, crisp, dry air after months of unrelenting heat. Beautiful changing leaves, nostalgic scents. I just love Autumn. :)


I want a wet Autumn and Winter. My house has resumed sinking after the drought from last year. I wouldnt mind half of Allison right now! But I do agree Autumn is nice. The only part of the year that bores me is February. Poor little February.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Autumn doesn't exist for those of us living in Louisiana. Insert 25 cents to try again. :)


Sucks for you, doesn't it? haha
You should at least take a road trip north for a few days to see the leaves changing in hardwood forests. So beautiful. It's my favorite time of year. It was better in Wisconsin when I used to live there, than in Missouri, but it's still nice here too. :)
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Quoting BrazoriaMan:
Just looked at the clock and realized that at this time 4 years ago, I had already lost power from Ike. 13 days later the power came back, and I had a new appreciation for electricity.


I can vouch for that! Put me through all the hurricanes you wish, just let me keep my electricity!
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Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


Autumn! Cool, crisp, dry air after months of unrelenting heat. Beautiful changing leaves, nostalgic scents. I just love Autumn. :)


Autumn doesn't exist for those of us living in Louisiana. Insert 25 cents to try again. :)
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Quoting lobdelse81:

What is your take on that cute little tropical wave at 10.5N/37W? I don't recall any of the models picking up on it. Looks like a sneaky little critter.


I would say that it should be watched. Upper-level winds aren't forecast to be too bad. At most, a bit of easterly shear on the south of the subtropical ridge, which isn't really unusual for systems in the deep tropics in any given year. Currently, the biggest hurdles are dry air in front of the wave, and of course South America. It needs to gain latitude if it means to survive.

In any case, models are sometimes not good at detecting development of tropical waves, since they are generally small scale features.
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If this verify, this is definitely a crazy year. I guess will depends on how fast this next T wave moves westward. We haven't  receive  a T wave coming through PR since before Isaac. Thist is a long time for this time of the year. Apparently we have a wall protecting the Easter caribbean this year.

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Is there ever a silver lining to weather?


Autumn! Cool, crisp, dry air after months of unrelenting heat. Beautiful changing leaves, nostalgic scents. I just love Autumn. :)
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Just looked at the clock and realized that at this time 4 years ago, I had already lost power from Ike. 13 days later the power came back, and I had a new appreciation for electricity.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Why am I still wide awake when I have to be at work for 9 (for those outside of my particular timezone, it's 11:25 PM here)? In fact, I'll probably still be up at 4, lol.

Who needs sleep? I will proudly reserve that for my grave. Priorities, kiddies. Priorities.

What is your take on that cute little tropical wave at 10.5N/37W? I don't recall any of the models picking up on it. Looks like a sneaky little critter.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Why am I still wide awake when I have to be at work for 9 (for those outside of my particular timezone, it's 11:25 PM here)? In fact, I'll probably still be up at 4, lol.

Who needs sleep? I will proudly reserve that for my grave. Priorities, kiddies. Priorities.


Sleep is for chumps, haha.
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Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
The T wave that is coming of Africa tomorrow has a very good chance to track westward. Is at a very low latitude with a building high north of the Caribbean.

can you give me the link for the GFS please.
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Why am I still wide awake when I have to be at work for 9 (for those outside of my particular timezone, it's 11:25 PM here)? In fact, I'll probably still be up at 4, lol.

Who needs sleep? I will proudly reserve that for my grave. Priorities, kiddies. Priorities.
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The T wave that is coming of Africa tomorrow has a very good chance to track westward. Is at a very low latitude with a building high north of the Caribbean.

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Interesting little feature around 10.5N/37W. Looks like it is slowly gaining a little bit of convection. I wonder if since this is at such a low latitude, it could avoid being scooped up by the troughiness along the east coast and sneak its way into the Caribbean Sea? Would be interesting if this became cute little Oscar :)
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather