Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
There's some good ones on here tonight. As Wash said, entertainment!

Interesting, as we've been relatively troll-free for the past few weeks.

Also, the board is completely messed up for me.
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Anyone know when the high pressure in the atlantic is supposed to get stronger and go further westward?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Entertainment!.

hmmm?
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There's some good ones on here tonight. As Wash said, entertainment!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Entertainment!.

Now it's boring again.
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Earlier as Sanba was rapidly intensifying the eye cleared out and raw T #s shot up to 7.0. Then it looked like it was going into an EWRC as the center clouded up and raw T #s came way down to 4.5 or so but now the eye is clearing back out and raw T # is back up to 6.4.

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STOP ALL THE TALK ABOUT SNOW!! What happen to GW!!
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There's a storm out in the Atlantic?.Lol.
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Nadine.

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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Why does the NHC even put a circle around something if it only has 0%???
Because at this time things might look unfavorable in the near future but maybe later on they will become more favorable.
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Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Why does the NHC even put a circle around something if it only has 0%???
So the wishcasters don't get too wishful.
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SHIPS still shows some unfavorable wind shear ahead for Nadine, but not nearly as so as in previous runs.

SHEAR (KT) 11 14 17 17 20 23 30 29 19 15 14 17 17
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456. BtnTx
off subject blog I am gone for many days again
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Quoting washingtonian115:
People complain in rich countries period.


yeah im going to stop...i know this blog takes things so serious...but anyway...do yall think nadine will make major hurricane?...structure is looking great
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


they dont complain like white people
People complain in rich countries period.
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453. txjac
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


they dont complain like white people


??????

I think that we should drop this line of conversation
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i never got a foot of now...
My records are:
Wet snow - 4inches
Powdery snow- 6inches


yeah weve gotten a foot 2 times that i can remember here in N.C. 1989 and 2000 when we actually got 2 feet in some spots. winter 2009 and 2010 were good winters here too...a few 6+ inch snow storms which isnt bad considering how far south and near the coast we are.
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


yes i know! its just power for a couple of days! 3rd world countries dont ever have power!even ones in the cold... i think we can handle a littleor alot of heavy snow. #whitepeopleproblems



what about black, chinese and mexican etc people in this first world country?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
White man has nothing to do with it :).It's just that people in developed countries are so use to being with power and having things that have made life more easier.


exactly..im white...im just saying its funny how we are though, i wish everyone (allraces) could visit somewhere thats not like here!
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


i love that heavy 1 ft wet snow that you get from a blob coming up right along the coast! sticks to the trees and everything!and you can build stuff in it let along a sweet snowball fight!


i never got a foot of now...
My records are:
Wet snow - 4inches
Powdery snow- 6inches
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


yes i know! its just power for a couple of days! 3rd world countries dont ever have power!even ones in the cold... i think we can handle a littleor alot of heavy snow. #whitepeopleproblems
White man has nothing to do with it :).It's just that people in developed countries are so use to being with power and having things that have made life more easier.
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nadines structure and gradual strengthening seem to be a good prediction that she could become the strongest hurricane of the year..imo
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I'm surprised at the lack of Florida doom-casting tonight. Look how close that menacing yellow circle is!

Shear city.
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Baja California should keep an eye on Kristy as a few models, most notably the GFS, take it in that direction... it still shouldn't be a huge deal even if it does come that way, but just something to watch.



The NHC has noted their forecast is biased towards the more southern solution shown by the Euro and others but if they flip and join the GFS the cone will move north.
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440. BtnTx
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
.
are you wearing a tinfoil hat?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Unfortunately "everything" includes power lines... The October storm last year was an absolute nightmare up here, especially since it was shortly after Irene.


yes i know! its just power for a couple of days! 3rd world countries dont ever have power!even ones in the cold... i think we can handle a littleor alot of heavy snow. #whitepeopleproblems
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


i love that heavy 1 ft wet snow that you get from a blob coming up right along the coast! sticks to the trees and everything!and you can build stuff in it let along a sweet snowball fight!

Unfortunately "everything" includes power lines... The October storm last year was an absolute nightmare up here, especially since it was shortly after Irene.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


oh, doesnt do damage here, and ive never had to shovel, the only reason we get snow from sidewalks is to get more to play with....now ice.....thats trouble


i love that heavy 1 ft wet snow that you get from a blob coming up right along the coast! sticks to the trees and everything!and you can build stuff in it let along a sweet snowball fight!
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Quoting flcanes:

lol
Keep it up and you'll be next on the special list.
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.
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If Nadine is upgrade to a hurricane we will surpass 2011 in terms of Hurricanes :) this season has been most intersting imo than 2011.
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Not sure if its been mentioned but the UKMET showed a Gulf low in 5 days on its 12z run today:



The Euro also tries to put something there:

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Quoting washingtonian115:
I have a sister like that.I think some people have a stronger smell of blood than others.Mosquitos hardly affect me.I can actually count the mosquito bites I get during summer. Part of my tree in my front yard fell during a heavy snow event.

lol
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GFS is showing half inch accumulations for northern Illinois at 150 hrs.

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather