Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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GFS is showing half inch accumulations for northern Illinois at 150 hrs.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
Nadine is almost a hurricane per ATCF and probably will be one at 5am.
AL, 14, 2012091300, , BEST, 0, 202N, 495W, 60, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 20, 40, 1010, 300, 15, 0, 0,
I will say like yesterday that this will be our second major.likely will be wrong but you never know.
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Aside from just absolutely hating hot and muggy weather, another reason is mosquitos. They LOVE me. I'm one of those people they will by-pass all others to get to. Even the few times we have them here, they zookm in on me. It's annoying as I really REALLY want to go to a proper, tropical, white-sand beach someday...but unless I go to arctic ones, I will likely be eaten alive and infested with every disease they transmit!!! Have to walk around in a bee-keepers outfit!!
I have a sister like that.I think some people have a stronger smell of blood than others.Mosquitos hardly affect me.I can actually count the mosquito bites I get during summer.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


oh, doesnt do damage here, and ive never had to shovel, the only reason we get snow from sidewalks is to get more to play with....now ice.....thats trouble
Part of my tree in my front yard fell during a heavy snow event.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Taiwan has been getting battered as well.


I had thought of that! Especially that one that looped around for another visit...crikey!
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422. BtnTx
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



because....

he is sooooo oooooooold....

: )
You and I may soon be as old as he is, lol :)
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I'm surprised at the lack of Florida doom-casting tonight. Look how close that menacing yellow circle is!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Powder.Wet snow can do some damage.It's also tougher to shovel.


the first time I felt powder snow I was SO amazed! Coming from S California, the snow in the mountains was always hard. The day I moved to Colorado Springs, they'd just had a fresh snow..I went to touch it on the hedge of my in-laws house when we got there...and couldn't believe how different it was from every snow I'd ever felt! Just powder, literally!! LOL I'm sure it sounds odd from those used to snow, but it was amazing to me haha So much so I remember it vividly!
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Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Fluoride, no?

I hear it's still a government plot to... do something nefarious, though the reasons have changed from mind control to... something else I've never quite been clear on.
The Illuminati really, really, really hate dentists.
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Quoting BtnTx:
why does everyone have to pick on Grothar all the time?



because....

he is sooooo oooooooold....

: )
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Nadine is almost a hurricane per ATCF and probably will be one at 5am.
AL, 14, 2012091300, , BEST, 0, 202N, 495W, 60, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 20, 40, 1010, 300, 15, 0, 0,
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
Last year was Phillippines year this looks like Koreas specially North Korea.
Taiwan has been getting battered as well.
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415. BtnTx
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


I know. I find them rather fascinating myself, I have his daily wit trajectory, peaks and low points, all graphed out vs. hours spent here, represented on several graphs that are safely held in an undisclosed location not to be assumed to be my derriere.

Oh, and I'm totally not a secret agent either. Totally not.

Lalalala...

:P
why does everyone have to pick on Grothar all the time?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Powder.Wet snow can do some damage.It's also tougher to shovel.


oh, doesnt do damage here, and ive never had to shovel, the only reason we get snow from sidewalks is to get more to play with....now ice.....thats trouble
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ATCF says Nadine is just below hurricane intensity.

AL, 14, 2012091300, , BEST, 0, 202N, 495W, 60, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 20, 40, 1010, 300, 15, 0, 0,
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Nadine up to 60kts.


AL, 14, 2012091300, , BEST, 0, 202N, 495W, 60, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 20, 40, 1010, 300, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
99 in Austin Today with High Humidity, been waiting on fall for about 5 months here, LOL, have a great evening weather admirers.


I have an old friend from San Diego who's about to move to Austin...I do wonder how he'll cope with the climate change!!!
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


I'm finding it quite shocking that it would be the first to achieve cat 5 over there. Usually not a prob in the W Pac.
But, they're also fond of S Japanese Isles and Korea this year, over Phillipines...so maybe something to do with that?! Was it last year Phillipines were just pounded repeatedly?!

I do always watch W Pac, just crazy storms they get out there..
Yeah its weird that the Wpac haven`t produce a cat 5.
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GFS is showing about an inch of snow for a few areas of WI:


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
I know.It was 59 degrees here this morning and they were still buzzing about trying to get their breakfast in.All though
I have been seeing few as of late thanks to the cooler nights :).


Aside from just absolutely hating hot and muggy weather, another reason is mosquitos. They LOVE me. I'm one of those people they will by-pass all others to get to. Even the few times we have them here, they zookm in on me. It's annoying as I really REALLY want to go to a proper, tropical, white-sand beach someday...but unless I go to arctic ones, I will likely be eaten alive and infested with every disease they transmit!!! Have to walk around in a bee-keepers outfit!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


I'm finding it quite shocking that it would be the first to achieve cat 5 over there. Usually not a prob in the W Pac.
But, they're also fond of S Japanese Isles and Korea this year, over Phillipines...so maybe something to do with that?! Was it last year Phillipines were just pounded repeatedly?!

I do always watch W Pac, just crazy storms they get out there..
Last year was Phillippines year this looks like Koreas specially North Korea.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


powder or wet?

Im hoping for 3inches of wet at least, or 4inches of powder this winter.(all powder in one event)

What im secretly hoping for is a blizzard(like '93)
Ive never seen snow and wind combined, or snowflakes smaller than 1/4 inch..
Powder.Wet snow can do some damage.It's also tougher to shovel.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
ATCF holds Kristy at 40 knots.

EP, 11, 2012091300, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1069W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 70, 0, 40, 1010, 140, 50, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KRISTY, M,
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I wouldn't mind getting 24 inches throughout the whole winter.Snow is beautiful especially hen the storm has passed and it's fresh.


powder or wet?

Im hoping for 3inches of wet at least, or 4inches of powder this winter.(all powder in one event)

What im secretly hoping for is a blizzard(like '93)
Ive never seen snow and wind combined, or snowflakes smaller than 1/4 inch..
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Quoting allancalderini:
Samba would probably be our first category 5.Nadine our 8 hurricane and we will probably reach Rafael or Sandy before all is done this year.


I'm finding it quite shocking that it would be the first to achieve cat 5 over there. Usually not a prob in the W Pac.
But, they're also fond of S Japanese Isles and Korea this year, over Phillipines...so maybe something to do with that?! Was it last year Phillipines were just pounded repeatedly?!

I do always watch W Pac, just crazy storms they get out there..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Feels very fall-like here in SE VA. Hoping that we finally see snow this year.
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Quoting wxmod:


Yes, ya got me! Grothers daily habits have always been a huge topic to us secret agents.


I know. I find them rather fascinating myself, I have his daily wit trajectory, peaks and low points, all graphed out vs. hours spent here, represented on several graphs that are safely held in an undisclosed location not to be assumed to be my derriere.

Oh, and I'm totally not a secret agent either. Totally not.

Lalalala...

:P
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
324 hours, a big ridge has built back in, just in time for the end of CV season:



Still a strong trough over the US.
You are showing a 2 day old run. This is the correct run;
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Pack your flip flops and mosquito spray. Fall is nowhere in site. We did get down to 62 the other night though. :)

Some scattered showers and storms affecting the area today, mostly isolated activity left this evening, some isolated activity could continue into the overnight period. It'll be much more warmer and muggier here on out especially in the overnight hours.
99 in Austin Today with High Humidity, been waiting on fall for about 5 months here, LOL, have a great evening weather admirers.
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Quoting AegirsGal:
I am hoping for a good cold winter here, if for no other reason than to kill off all these awful disease ridden mosquitoes. I would have a similar event in my old hometown in TX as well for the same reason.
I know.It was 59 degrees here this morning and they were still buzzing about trying to get their breakfast in.All though
I have been seeing few as of late thanks to the cooler nights :).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm noticing a lot of acorns on the ground up here. Last year there were barely any and we had very little snow. The year before that there were a ton of acorns and we had a ton of snow... Nature knows. I'm noticing the trees change as well.


Here last year (N. Wales) by this time it was really starting to look proper autumny already. Things are so far still really green, if a bit paler right now. the last 2 days has felt a nip of autumness (sometimes hard to tell here when we don't really have a summer so to say haha). But it's def different from last year. I know some previous posts in previous blogs were talking about how cool this summer was in the UK, but in N Wales, it's actually been quite mild- especially all through August, though it probably wouldn't change the results from the whole of the UK. Other areas have probably been cool for summer, but I've had to have my windows open about everyday it's been so 'warm', which I have not had to for years. It has been very rainy though!! So not been especially 'nice' out to most opinions! LOL

I can't wait for autumn though! Last years was a bit rubbish, too many storms and too windy all the time, so leaves gone and not much opportunity for nice photos. And winter, drooool! We have had snow the last 2 years (where not normally had), I do wonder if we'll get some again! Only once last year and not as widespread (but was at my house yaay!) year before VERY widespread and a few times AND where not common at all. So will see, but hoping for some more snow!
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


We had 4-5 consecutive years of snow, and that takes up most of my memorable memory, 2011-2012 was a harsh reminder to me that GA goes winters without snow quite often, though it was slightly surprising to not even see a flurry.
I pretty much gave up on snow last year after that monster ridge built in in march and it was 85F here.

Im hoping for better luck this year, but ive been spoiled with snow for half a decade
I wouldn't mind getting 24 inches throughout the whole winter.Snow is beautiful especially hen the storm has passed and it's fresh.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I am hoping for a good cold winter here, if for no other reason than to kill off all these awful disease ridden mosquitoes. I would have a similar event in my old hometown in TX as well for the same reason.
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393. wxmod
Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


I would personally feel much more comfortable with this whole conversation if you would just do me one itty bitty little favor and prove to me that you're not a top secret plant from the government of Benin, spending time on this blog to collect data about Grothar's daily habits.

Would you mind please proving that for me?


Yes, ya got me! Grothers daily habits have always been a huge topic to us secret agents.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
You have to understand that after last winter people are desperate.It's like someone that hasn't had "s" in months.After a while they get really desperate and take it anyway they can get it.


We had 4-5 consecutive years of snow, and that takes up most of my memorable memory, 2011-2012 was a harsh reminder to me that GA goes winters without snow quite often, though it was slightly surprising to not even see a flurry.
I pretty much gave up on snow last year after that monster ridge built in in march and it was 85F here.

Im hoping for better luck this year, but ive been spoiled with snow for half a decade
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Quoting washingtonian115:
At least you all seen snow.I have almost forgot what it feels like.I might as well had packed my bags and moved to Florida or Texas.


Pack your flip flops and mosquito spray. Fall is nowhere in site. We did get down to 62 the other night though. :)

Some scattered showers and storms affecting the area today, mostly isolated activity left this evening, some isolated activity could continue into the overnight period. It'll be much more warmer and muggier here on out especially in the overnight hours.
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Even Miami's gonna get a taste of Fall next week!!!
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Quoting Grothar:


I'll have you know our high tomorrow will only be 89. Fall is just around the corner.
Still sounds like July there Gro.Lol.Highs will on be in the low 80's to 70's here.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
WOOHOO!! break out the sled and snow boots - this maybe my winter for snow along the coast!..lol
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Quoting wxmod:


How are you certain we lack the power? Are you looking at satellite images and drawing that conclusion, or are you the president of the USA? Maybe you learned that we lack the power from the nightly news.


I would personally feel much more comfortable with this whole conversation if you would just do me one itty bitty little favor and prove to me that you're not a top secret plant from the government of Benin, spending time on this blog to collect data about Grothar's daily habits.

Would you mind please proving that for me?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
For the Michigan football game I'm going to on Saturday the weather will be perfect besides a little cool.
Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting lobdelse81:

People, it is only September. The most you may get is a scattered frost in the morning and maybe some unsettled weather. Don't count on any of those massive November storms like the one in 1975 that sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior. Too early for that.


I'll have you know our high tomorrow will only be 89. Fall is just around the corner.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting yqt1001:


As crazy as it sounds some people on this blog would love a snowless winter! XD Last winter here was the closest we've ever been. Snow on the ground for maybe 4 months.
At least you all seen snow.I have almost forgot what it feels like.I might as well had packed my bags and moved to Florida or Texas.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Post #380, yes a song by Gordon Lightfoot. You can pull it up on Youtube.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
You have to understand that after last winter people are desperate.It's like someone that hasn't had "s" in months.After a while they get really desperate and take it anyway they can get it.


As crazy as it sounds some people on this blog would love a snowless winter! XD Last winter here was the closest we've ever been. Snow on the ground for maybe 4 months.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
381. wxmod
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah, the problem is we lack that power. By the way, a satellite image is not evidence of cloud seeding.


How are you certain we lack the power? Are you looking at satellite images and drawing that conclusion, or are you the president of the USA? Maybe you learned that we lack the power from the nightly news.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
You have to understand that after last winter people are desperate.It's like someone that hasn't had "s" in months.After a while they get really desperate and take it anyway they can get it.

I think there might even be a song about the Edmund Fitzgerald if i am not mistaken:)
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Quoting lobdelse81:

People, it is only September. The most you may get is a scattered frost in the morning and maybe some unsettled weather. Don't count on any of those massive November storms like the one in 1975 that sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior. Too early for that.
You have to understand that after last winter people are desperate.It's like someone that hasn't had "s" in months.After a while they get really desperate and take it anyway they can get it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Big changes as fall nears..150 hours..240 hours.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheHurricaneDundee:
Here's what happens folks: HAARP
The U.S and China have been in a Typhoon/Hurricane war for a while.
Gustav, Ike, Irene, and Isaac were all forcasted to make landfall a lot stronger than they did. And thanks to HAARP, the U.S can pump stronger fronts to push the big hurricanes away.
As for China:
The U.S struck them with Vicente and a bunch of other weak ones, and chinese Taipei(Taiwan) with Tembin. Luckly for China, they deflected Bolaven. We'll see if they can do the same with Sanba.


We don't need the US to control the weather !
If they don't want storms in PR, they just need to recurve them to the north on the Northern leewards islands, because here we love that, we wish that...
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Samba would probably be our first category 5.Nadine our 8 hurricane and we will probably reach Rafael or Sandy before all is done this year.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather