Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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376. allancalderini
11:47 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Samba would probably be our first category 5.Nadine our 8 hurricane and we will probably reach Rafael or Sandy before all is done this year.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
375. weathermancer
11:47 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Soooo... is it true that global warming is being curtailed by atmospheric "seeding"?
After Sept. 11... the 2 days of zero air traffic actually caused a global mean 'warming', so it would be a no-brainer to add aluminum and boron to jetA fuel.
Sorry to be off/on topic, but am just querieing.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
374. washingtonian115
11:46 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Something in the Atlantic besides Nadine!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Probably won't develop.By the by where is stormtracker2K?.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
373. lobdelse81
11:45 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


I know, sort of gives you the chills, doesn't it.

People, it is only September. The most you may get is a scattered frost in the morning and maybe some unsettled weather. Don't count on any of those massive November storms like the one in 1975 that sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior. Too early for that.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
372. wxchaser97
11:44 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Nadine has a yellow circle buddy.
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
371. Tropicsweatherpr
11:43 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Something in the Atlantic besides Nadine!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
370. gordydunnot
11:41 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Oh, looking at the Gulf of Mexico visible there maybe a little something in the Bay of Campeche for Texas.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
369. lobdelse81
11:40 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Please happen, I won't bother the blog but please happen.

You cannot get snow in many places in the US in September other than the high elevations of the Rockies and maybe in extreme cases, the arrow-head of Minnesota or upper Peninsula of Michigan. Snow in Minneapolis, Madison, Chicago or points south and eastward....impossible in September!!!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
368. wxchaser97
11:37 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Is there an eye forming again with Nadine?

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
367. wxmod
11:36 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting yqt1001:


Well, if it was available. But it wasn't available as of August 26th.



But whatever, truly I do believe that seeding is something totally feasible in the future and I do think that it will happen, but I don't see a reason to keep it quiet from the populace.


Because it, like so many other tech wonders, is also a weapon.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
366. HuracanTaino
11:34 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting gordydunnot:
I'm moving my area of interest from the N. Bahamas to the central were the shear appears to be less.Also if Nadine gets out of the way, I like the chance for the area around 10n, 30 to 35W. Maybe the Antilles will get some rain. Back to lurking, like to add my one cent every once in awhile.
yes that weak area 30w ,10N, have a nice spin,, just needs, humidity..... who knows?
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365. wxchaser97
11:33 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


I know, sort of gives you the chills, doesn't it.

Yeah it does and I see what you did there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
364. yqt1001
11:32 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting wxmod:


Now, let me see, if there was ha hurricane approaching your house and you had some power to do something about it, you wouldn't try. Right?


Well, if it was available. But it wasn't available as of August 26th.



But whatever, truly I do believe that seeding is something totally feasible in the future and I do think that it will happen, but I don't see a reason to keep it quiet from the populace.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
363. LurkyMcLurkerson
11:32 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting wxmod:


Now, let me see, if there was ha hurricane approaching your house and you had some power to do something about it, you wouldn't try. Right?


QED.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
362. TomTaylor
11:31 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting wxmod:


Now, let me see, if there was ha hurricane approaching your house and you had some power to do something about it, you wouldn't try. Right?
Yeah, the problem is we lack that power. By the way, a satellite image is not evidence of cloud seeding.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
360. wxmod
11:25 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting yqt1001:


You know, completely disregard the major Asia-North America flight path you just posted. :P


Now, let me see, if there was ha hurricane approaching your house and you had some power to do something about it, you wouldn't try. Right?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
359. TomTaylor
11:23 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting yqt1001:


It is still up
but it hasn't been updated in ages. Though I have been thinking about updating it. :P Interest in updating it generally peaks in the off season when NHem and SHem is being boring.
Thanks for the link, I bookmarked it. I remember sort of working on this with you last year, though I never really went through and tested out storms cause I got lazy. But I just tried Sanba and it gave me 95% chance of RI and a moderate chance of explosive intensification...which I'd agree with.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
358. yqt1001
11:22 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Quoting wxmod:
In Sanba's direct path, human activity. How bout that. MODIS



You know, completely disregard the major Asia-Japan/North America flight path you just posted. :P
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
357. wxmod
11:21 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
In Sanba's direct path, human activity. How bout that. MODIS

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
356. yqt1001
11:20 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Well that was quick.

Sanba EWR..seeding already.



No doubt enough time to restrengthen and reach a higher intensity though.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
355. Boco12
11:20 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Could Sanba be the year's first category 5 tropical cyclone?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
354. CaicosRetiredSailor
11:19 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
353. wxchaser97
11:18 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
The Wxchaser97 Forecast Model:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
352. Thing342
11:17 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Nadine looks like she is trying to form an eye.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
351. gordydunnot
11:17 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
I'm moving my area of interest from the N. Bahamas to the central were the shear appears to be less.Also if Nadine gets out of the way, I like the chance for the area around 10n, 30 to 35W. Maybe the Antilles will get some rain. Back to lurking, like to add my one cent every once in awhile.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:


So, if it hits land at 60 kts, will that prove it has been modified?

So land interaction and dry air and an EWRC can be thrown out? I'm just asking for your input.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
This could be nasty for a lot of folks if it were to occur...
Looking forward to it.These past few days(and next few) have featured nothing put sunshine...It get's boring after awhile.I need some rain!.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxmod:


So, if it hits land at 60 kts, will that prove it has been modified?


Yes. It's supposed to hit Okinawa in 48 hours and be at peak intensity (125kts) then. If it lands at less than 60kts I will pretend to consider you correct.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:
Wow we went from the tropics to winter talk quickly.


I know, sort of gives you the chills, doesn't it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
346. wxmod
Quoting FlyingScotsman:
Get a load of this for Sanba!


And Raw T-numbers have hit 6.7—133 kts!!


So, if it hits land at 60 kts, will that prove it has been modified?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
This could be nasty for a lot of folks if it were to occur...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Get a load of this for Sanba!


And Raw T-numbers have hit 6.7—133 kts!!
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Quoting unknowncomic:
There will be at some point no doubt.

Definitely there will be, conditions will be right for development.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Nothing in Western Caribbean as past runs had.
There will be at some point no doubt.
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hope well water and the garden are safe..
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339. wxmod
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I highly doubt he is... Do you really, truly believe we can stop something like this:




As long as there are aluminum oxide nanoparticles to mix with jet fuel and electric power to modulate the ionosphere, people will try. That storm is on a very serious trajectory and if you watch the satellite photos carefully, you will see the course altered or the hurricane radically weakened before land fall. I'm not saying they will be successful, but they will try.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Wow we went from the tropics to winter talk quickly.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I remember seeing a map last year back in January or February showing that only 10% of the country at the time had snow.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

It actually brings snow from a trace to up to an inch in some areas in MI and the great lakes. This is too far out to get the hopes up though but it will be interesting to see if it continues to show it.


yep!
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335. wxmod
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


thats because the mexican and pacific island countries govt doesnt alter them...notice all the strong hurricanes this year have been ones that curve...perfect example was irene last year....perfect condition weakens to 80mph hurricane hours before landfall..yall can call me crazy i dont care


I think Mexico can alter storms, maybe on behalf of the USA.
As for the hurricanes this year, a huge amount of dust coming off the Sahara is making the storms wobbly. The dust could be the result of rapidly expanding desertification because of global warming.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Image of the night sky above Paranal on 21 July 2007, taken by ESO astronomer Yuri Beletsky. A wide band of stars and dust clouds, spanning more than 100 degrees on the sky, is seen. This is the Milky Way, the Galaxy we belong to. At the centre of the image, two bright objects are visible. The brightest is the planet Jupiter, while the other is the star Antares. Three of the four 8.2-m telescopes forming ESO's VLT are seen, with a laser beaming out from Yepun, Unit Telescope number 4. The laser points directly at the Galactic Centre. Also visible are three of the 1.8-m Auxiliary Telescopes used for interferometry. They show small light beams which are diodes located on the domes. The exposure time is 5 minutes and because the tracking was made on the stars, the telescopes are slightly blurred. Date 2007
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm noticing a lot of acorns on the ground up here. Last year there were barely any and we had very little snow. The year before that there were a ton of acorns and we had a ton of snow... Nature knows. I'm noticing the trees change as well.
The leaves have gone as far as falling off.starting to see some leaf coverage now on the ground.Last year was absolutely pathetic.Looks like we won't see another 87+ degree day here in D.C for a while.Especially if that pattern comes to pass.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
for those interested in snow..twister data has a great snow depth for the GFS that I used last year..tells you the potential in inches your area could get..of course I saw nada but its looking better this year for me..

TwisterData/GFS Surface Snow Depth

It actually brings snow from a trace to up to an inch in some areas in MI and the great lakes. This is too far out to get the hopes up though but it will be interesting to see if it continues to show it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
324 hours, a big ridge has built back in, just in time for the end of CV season:



Still a strong trough over the US.


Nothing in Western Caribbean as past runs had.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm noticing a lot of acorns on the ground up here. Last year there were barely any and we had very little snow. The year before that there were a ton of acorns and we had a ton of snow... Nature knows. I'm noticing the trees change as well.

I've already been seeing the tree's changing up here as well. In the upper lower peninsula they were changing in mid August.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
for those interested in snow..twister data has a great snow depth for the GFS that I used last year..tells you the potential in inches your area could get..of course I saw nada but its looking better this year for me..

TwisterData/GFS Surface Snow Depth
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Quoting washingtonian115:
That would mean some possible cold rain/sleet event hear in D.C.The trees are telling us something here.Thanks to the cool nights(lows in the 50's and some places 40's) the trees have changed colors.I'm starting to see a hint of yellow in the trees.

I'm noticing a lot of acorns on the ground up here. Last year there were barely any and we had very little snow. The year before that there were a ton of acorns and we had a ton of snow... Nature knows. I'm noticing the trees change as well.
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This has to be a major hurricane, it is looking super good with strong convection and outflow with that eye.
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I knew I was forgetting something!

No bubbly, but I do have some Fresca...

Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Party hats, everyone! Noise makers! It's finally time!

Who chilled the bubbly?
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather