About Jeff Masters
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012
Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.
With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.
Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
376. allancalderini
11:47 PM GMT on September 12, 2012375. weathermancer
11:47 PM GMT on September 12, 2012After Sept. 11... the 2 days of zero air traffic actually caused a global mean 'warming', so it would be a no-brainer to add aluminum and boron to jetA fuel.
Sorry to be off/on topic, but am just querieing.
374. washingtonian115
11:46 PM GMT on September 12, 2012373. lobdelse81
11:45 PM GMT on September 12, 2012People, it is only September. The most you may get is a scattered frost in the morning and maybe some unsettled weather. Don't count on any of those massive November storms like the one in 1975 that sunk the Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior. Too early for that.
372. wxchaser97
11:44 PM GMT on September 12, 2012A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
371. Tropicsweatherpr
11:43 PM GMT on September 12, 2012TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING AN ELONGATED AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
370. gordydunnot
11:41 PM GMT on September 12, 2012369. lobdelse81
11:40 PM GMT on September 12, 2012You cannot get snow in many places in the US in September other than the high elevations of the Rockies and maybe in extreme cases, the arrow-head of Minnesota or upper Peninsula of Michigan. Snow in Minneapolis, Madison, Chicago or points south and eastward....impossible in September!!!!!
368. wxchaser97
11:37 PM GMT on September 12, 2012367. wxmod
11:36 PM GMT on September 12, 2012Because it, like so many other tech wonders, is also a weapon.
366. HuracanTaino
11:34 PM GMT on September 12, 2012365. wxchaser97
11:33 PM GMT on September 12, 2012Yeah it does and I see what you did there.
364. yqt1001
11:32 PM GMT on September 12, 2012Well, if it was available. But it wasn't available as of August 26th.
But whatever, truly I do believe that seeding is something totally feasible in the future and I do think that it will happen, but I don't see a reason to keep it quiet from the populace.
363. LurkyMcLurkerson
11:32 PM GMT on September 12, 2012QED.
362. TomTaylor
11:31 PM GMT on September 12, 2012360. wxmod
11:25 PM GMT on September 12, 2012Now, let me see, if there was ha hurricane approaching your house and you had some power to do something about it, you wouldn't try. Right?
359. TomTaylor
11:23 PM GMT on September 12, 2012358. yqt1001
11:22 PM GMT on September 12, 2012You know, completely disregard the major Asia-Japan/North America flight path you just posted. :P
357. wxmod
11:21 PM GMT on September 12, 2012356. yqt1001
11:20 PM GMT on September 12, 2012Sanba EWR..seeding already.
No doubt enough time to restrengthen and reach a higher intensity though.
355. Boco12
11:20 PM GMT on September 12, 2012354. CaicosRetiredSailor
11:19 PM GMT on September 12, 2012353. wxchaser97
11:18 PM GMT on September 12, 2012352. Thing342
11:17 PM GMT on September 12, 2012351. gordydunnot
11:17 PM GMT on September 12, 2012350. wxchaser97
So land interaction and dry air and an EWRC can be thrown out? I'm just asking for your input.
349. washingtonian115
348. yqt1001
Yes. It's supposed to hit Okinawa in 48 hours and be at peak intensity (125kts) then. If it lands at less than 60kts I will pretend to consider you correct.
347. Grothar
I know, sort of gives you the chills, doesn't it.
346. wxmod
So, if it hits land at 60 kts, will that prove it has been modified?
345. hydrus
344. FlyingScotsman
And Raw T-numbers have hit 6.7—133 kts!!
343. wxchaser97
Definitely there will be, conditions will be right for development.
342. unknowncomic
340. gregpinehurstnc
339. wxmod
As long as there are aluminum oxide nanoparticles to mix with jet fuel and electric power to modulate the ionosphere, people will try. That storm is on a very serious trajectory and if you watch the satellite photos carefully, you will see the course altered or the hurricane radically weakened before land fall. I'm not saying they will be successful, but they will try.
338. wxchaser97
337. washingtonian115
336. ncstorm
yep!
335. wxmod
I think Mexico can alter storms, maybe on behalf of the USA.
As for the hurricanes this year, a huge amount of dust coming off the Sahara is making the storms wobbly. The dust could be the result of rapidly expanding desertification because of global warming.
334. hydrus
333. washingtonian115
332. wxchaser97
It actually brings snow from a trace to up to an inch in some areas in MI and the great lakes. This is too far out to get the hopes up though but it will be interesting to see if it continues to show it.
331. Tropicsweatherpr
Nothing in Western Caribbean as past runs had.
330. wxchaser97
I've already been seeing the tree's changing up here as well. In the upper lower peninsula they were changing in mid August.
329. ncstorm
TwisterData/GFS Surface Snow Depth
328. MAweatherboy1
I'm noticing a lot of acorns on the ground up here. Last year there were barely any and we had very little snow. The year before that there were a ton of acorns and we had a ton of snow... Nature knows. I'm noticing the trees change as well.
327. wxchaser97
326. evilpenguinshan
No bubbly, but I do have some Fresca...