Tropical Storm Nadine forms; Newfoundland cleans up after Leslie

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:03 PM GMT on September 12, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine formed last night, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, and continues to grow more organized today as it heads west-northwest at 17 mph. The models unanimously predict that Nadine will recurve to the north well east of the Lesser Antilles Islands later this week, on a track that would likely keep this storm far out at sea away from any land areas. Nadine is in a low-shear environment favorable for strengthening, and will likely become Hurricane Nadine by Thursday. A NASA remotely-piloted Global Hawk research aircraft is currently flying a 26-hour mission in Nadine, as part of the HS3 Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel Program. The data collected will help scientists decipher the relative roles of the large-scale environment and internal storm processes that affect hurricanes.

With fourteen named storms already this season, 2012 is now one of just 19 hurricane seasons over the past 162 years to have fourteen or more tropical storms. Nadine's formation date of September 10 puts 2012 in 5th place for earliest formation date of the season's 14th tropical storm. Only 2005, 2011, 1936, and 1933 had earlier formation dates of the season's 14th storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Most of the models predict that a trough of low pressure about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast will serve as the focus for development of a non-tropical low pressure system on Sunday or Monday. This low may spend enough time over water to acquire tropical characteristics and become a named storm by the middle of next week.

Newfoundland cleans up after Tropical Storm Leslie
Tropical Storm Leslie made landfall in Southern Newfoundland at 8 am EDT September 11 as a tropical storm with 70 mph winds and a central pressure of 969 mb. Leslie brought sustained winds to Newfoundland's capital, St. Johns, of 58 mph, gusting to 82 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Cape Pine record the highest gust from Leslie, 85 mph. The storm tore off roofs, downed trees, and toppled power lines, and 45,000 households were without power Tuesday afternoon in Newfoundland, including much of the capital of St. Johns. Leslie's tropical moisture collided with the cold front drawing the storm to the north, resulting in heavy rains over eastern Nova Scotia and western Newfoundland in excess of 4 inches, which caused considerable flooding of homes and streets. However, the rains were far less than those experienced during Hurricane Igor, which hit Newfoundland as a Category 1 hurricane in 2010, causing $200 million in damage. I expect damage from Leslie will be less than $20 million. Leslie is now a powerful extratropical storm bringing rain and strong winds to Iceland.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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I knew I was forgetting something!

No bubbly, but I do have some Fresca...

Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Party hats, everyone! Noise makers! It's finally time!

Who chilled the bubbly?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We're getting out there now, but it brings it down further at 276 hours, more snow potential in far northern areas. Also note the strong TS by the CV islands:

That would mean some possible cold rain/sleet event hear in D.C.The trees are telling us something here.Thanks to the cool nights(lows in the 50's and some places 40's) the trees have changed colors.I'm starting to see a hint of yellow in the trees.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
324 hours, a big ridge has built back in, just in time for the end of CV season:



Still a strong trough over the US.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Anyone else very impressed by what this storm is probably going to do?


Please happen, I won't bother the blog but please happen.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
252 hours, check out the trough in Canada. Now that will bring snow for sure.


We're getting out there now, but it brings it down further at 276 hours, more snow potential in far northern areas. Also note the strong TS by the CV islands:

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Quoting TomTaylor:
Beautiful storm. Do you still have that RI calculator website up?


It is still up
but it hasn't been updated in ages. Though I have been thinking about updating it. :P Interest in updating it generally peaks in the off season when NHem and SHem is being boring.
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252 hours, check out the trough in Canada. Now that will bring snow for sure.

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Quoting Grothar:
Is that an eye? I've been waiting all season to say that.



Party hats, everyone! Noise makers! It's finally time!

Who chilled the bubbly?
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Quoting yqt1001:
First vis on Sanba!

Beautiful storm. Do you still have that RI calculator website up?
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The GFS shows Nadine completely eliminating any ridge in the Atlantic:

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's really hard to know for sure. It's showing the 540 line there which is generally the rain/snow line, but its tricky this time of year with the ground and air being so warm... I don't think its impossible a few wet flakes come down if it deepens enough but there shouldn't be anything major.


yeah maybe its rain so hard it will just start snowing, i doubt any accumulation but like you i think its possible!
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Quoting wxmod:


are you kidding?

I highly doubt he is... Do you really, truly believe we can stop something like this:

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314. wxmod
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Seeding is a ridiculous idea that has absolutely no merit. Anybody that believes it is real is foolish, plain and simple.


are you kidding?
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Is that an eye? I've been waiting all season to say that.

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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


wow is that snow wrapping around the low!!! ???

It's really hard to know for sure. It's showing the 540 line there which is generally the rain/snow line, but its tricky this time of year with the ground and air being so warm... I don't think its impossible a few wet flakes come down if it deepens enough but there shouldn't be anything major.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Anyone else very impressed by what this storm is probably going to do?

Looks like nothing interesting in the tropics besides Nadine.But that's okay!.Because I'll have interesting weather in own backyard.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

For any storms that form before the Antilles, yes, the pattern supports recurves. It's very unlikely the US will be threatened by any CV storms for the rest of the year with the ridge set the way it is and the constant flow of troughs that will be moving through the US.


There is a possible wave developing next week that could move a little further west than the others. Of course if the "hurricane machine" is working they may move it out to sea?
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I think we are giving us humans waaayyyyy to much credit to think that we can alter weather ...knowingly. Now unknowingly or without care yes.... look at GW.
Please this wasn't meant to start a GW debate or a subsequent political debate debacle!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
144 hours:





wow is that snow wrapping around the low!!! ???
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Anyone else very impressed by what this storm is probably going to do?

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Quoting yqt1001:
First vis on Sanba!


Wow, that's even more beautiful than I thought it would be.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Good job with this storm, you definitely caught it before anyone else did...rapid intensification and all.


My timing was off unfortunately, by about 6 hours though so I guess I didn't do that bad.
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144 hours:



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First vis on Sanba!

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Quoting yqt1001:
Not bad intensification rate.

12/1432 UTC 13.9N 130.2E T4.5/4.5 SANBA -- West Pacific
12/2032 UTC 14.6N 129.9E T5.5/5.5 SANBA -- West Pacific

A good jump from 75kts to 100kts. Won't be 100kts for long though.

Good job with this storm, you definitely caught it before anyone else did...rapid intensification and all.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
12/2032 UTC 14.6N 129.9E T5.5/5.5 SANBA -- West Pacific

It may be a major hurricane right now. Sun will be up soon out there so we'll get some great visible images.

If that's not a major hurricane then Leslie was a cat 5...
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Quoting Neapolitan:
What often strikes me as humorous is that many of those who refuse to believe that the 40 trillion liters of CO2 we humans pump into the environment each day can have any effect on global temperatures over a decadal scale are nevertheless convinced that a couple of pounds of chemicals dumped into a 500-mile-wide, 150-mph tropical cyclone will cause it to instantly change strength or direction.

Some people are funny that way. ;-)



Majick Minerals.
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Look at that storm crank over the US.

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The Azores definitely need to be keeping an eye on Nadine.

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Nadine now ranks as a 5 on HSI, unofficially.

I rounded down from 5.33, so if you want to round up, whatever, give it 6.

Still very tiny circulation at the surface.
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Great film.

Link

Quoting Grothar:


Dr. Strangelove. Don't forget, Grothar remembers everything.
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Nadine is pushing hurricane status:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2012 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 19:57:58 N Lon : 48:50:51 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 988.1mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.8 3.8


Probably a little ways to go though based on satellite appearance, 5AM is by bet.

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Quoting evilpenguinshan:
Something about precious bodily fluids, no doubt.



Dr. Strangelove. Don't forget, Grothar remembers everything.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


How did you get the antidote?


Who do you think started the secret project?
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Something about precious bodily fluids, no doubt.

Quoting LurkyMcLurkerson:


Fluoride, no?

I hear it's still a government plot to... do something nefarious, though the reasons have changed from mind control to... something else I've never quite been clear on.
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Quoting lurkersince2008:
Does anyone think that any new tropical systems will continue curve North?

For any storms that form before the Antilles, yes, the pattern supports recurves. It's very unlikely the US will be threatened by any CV storms for the rest of the year with the ridge set the way it is and the constant flow of troughs that will be moving through the US.
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Quoting Grothar:
Well, I heard from a reliable source years ago that the government was putting things into our water and food to lower our intelligence level so they could control us more. I am beginning to believe it might be true.


Fluoride, no?

I hear it's still a government plot to... do something nefarious, though the reasons have changed from mind control to... something else I've never quite been clear on.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Well, I heard from a reliable source years ago that the government was putting things into our water and food to lower our intelligence level so they could control us more. I am beginning to believe it might be true.


How did you get the antidote?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Let nature BREATH dammit!.


Let's all hold our breath so we stop releasing CO2. That'll work.

Did you know we know more about Mars than we do about our oceans? Jus' Sayin'.

Back to the weather. Rainy & cool here in grand ol' MN today.
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Does anyone think that any new tropical systems will continue curve North?
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12/2032 UTC 14.6N 129.9E T5.5/5.5 SANBA -- West Pacific

It may be a major hurricane right now. Sun will be up soon out there so we'll get some great visible images.

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285. MTWX
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
The Twilight Zone was one of the TV series ever.... I have it recorded.... I am afraid I have seen them all. What a great writer Rod Serling was... This morning I watched "Four O'clock" with Theodore Bikel... Great


Another one I used to watch all the time was "The Outer Limits"
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Also people who have chosen to live on the coast in hurricane alley that is YOUR FAULT.Not anyone else.That's the price you get for living in paradise.You just have to put up with hurricanes.Don't try and destroy them for your selfish reasons.They were here before humans and they'll be here after we're gone...Face the facts and stop whining and crying.I don't hear people from tornado alley complaining as much because they know where they live and they no what they have to put up with.It's not anyone else fault but theirs.
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Quoting Grothar:
Well, I heard from a reliable source years ago that the government was putting things into our water and food to lower our intelligence level so they could control us more. I am beginning to believe it might be true.


dis is 2 educashion no sense
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Quoting uncwhurricane85:


there will never be data for it because the govt doesnt want us to know anything! but maybe when americas problems become more than someone crying over black white issues whos taxes are paying for foodstamps and other trivial stuff that doesnt matter category 5 hurricanes will start to happen again! until then budget will continue to pay for protecting us from hurricanes.

Cybrted... Just leave it alone... Plain and simple.
Ignore User is very useful at this time of need.
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I can only say that I wish scientists were nearly as far along in understanding any number of things as conspiracy theories assume we must be. It'd be neat.

The unfortunate reality of most scientific fields is that the vast majority of askable questions are still answered with, "nobody really knows, and it's all, well, kind of complicated."
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Quoting Grothar:
Well, I heard from a reliable source years ago that the government was putting things into our water and food to lower our intelligence level so they could control us more. I am beginning to believe it might be true.
What, Huh.. i be smart as i evr was
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Well, I heard from a reliable source years ago that the government was putting things into our water and food to lower our intelligence level so they could control us more. I am beginning to believe it might be true.
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Exactly. It's basically because the global population growth that people are spreading out into these tropical regions where hurricanes have been traveling to since the beginning of time... Seeding Hurricanes would only mean more global disasters on our part anyway... You saw what happened to Beijing when they tryed to mess with weather... Record Snowfall where they wanted the snow to fall(Beijing), but the worst drought in history concurred the Western half of China, and other central asian countries...
Point being.
#1. Don't mess with nature, because there is noone near smart enough to realize what might just happen by doing so.
#2. DONT MESS WITH WEATHER AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. PERIOD.em>

Point being...
This Earth would last longer than anyone realizes if we were to abide by these rules...
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Yes, he turned out to be a very "small" man.
2 foot tall
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather