Tropical Storm Nadine brushing the Azores

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:57 PM GMT on September 19, 2012

Tropical Storm Nadine continues to churn towards the Azores Islands at 4 mph, where tropical storm warnings are up. Nadine brought sustained winds of 32 mph, gusting to 46 mph to Horta Castelo Branco in the Azores at 1:30 pm local time, and occasional heavy rain showers have affected most of the islands today. Nadine is a very large storm, as seen on visible satellite loops, and will affect the islands for at least three more days as it treks slowly to the southeast of the islands. On Thursday, Nadine will become tangled up with an upper-level low pressure system, and will convert to an extratropical storm. The final fate of Nadine is very uncertain; most of models predict that the two systems will merge, and the extratropical version of Nadine will move back to the west-southwest next week, where it could potentially become a tropical storm again. However, the GFS model predicts that Nadine and the upper-level low will remain separate, and extratropical storm Nadine will go on to hit Portugal and bring much-needed rain to the region on Monday. Much of Portugal and Spain are in moderate to severe drought, according to the Global Drought Monitor from the University College London.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine brushing the Azores (at right of image) and of an extratropical storm with a 10% chance of becoming a subtropical or extratropical cyclone by Friday (center of image.)

Extratropical storm east of Bermuda may acquire tropical characteristics
A large, cold-cored extratropical storm has formed about 800 hundred miles east of Bermuda, and has the potential to develop heavy thunderstorms that will enable it to become a warm-cored subtropical or tropical storm. Wind shear is a moderate to high 10 - 25 knots, and the low has plenty of cold, dry air aloft that will slow down any transition to a tropical storm. None of the reliable models develop this system into a tropical storm, though the latest runs of the GFS model and NOGAPS model predict that the system will begin to develop a warm core at low levels over the next few days. The storm is moving west at 10 mph, and should turn to the north by this weekend and potentially affect the Canadian Maritime Provinces. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the storm a 10% chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone by Friday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development through September 25.

One interesting note on Typhoon Sanba, which hit Korea on Monday as a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Sanba brought heavy rains to the coast of Russia, causing street flooding in Vladivostok. The city recorded 4.37" of rain (111 mm) over a 2-day period, causing a mudslide in the city that temporarily disrupted a train connection between two local stations. As pointed out to me by Maximiliano Herrera, significant typhoons impacts are uncommon in Russia, and Sanba was the 2nd typhoon to impact Vladivostok this year. On August 29, Typhoon Bolaven brought wind gusts of up to 73 mph to Vladivostok, and the rains from the storm helped put out wildfires burning in eastern Russia.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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477. wxchaser97
12:25 PM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Go to school, Isaac.

Bye everyone, I have to go to school but so does Cody:)
Have a great day and there is a thunderstorm over me right now.
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476. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:25 PM GMT on September 20, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
475. GeorgiaStormz
12:25 PM GMT on September 20, 2012
James Spann7:55 AM - Public
Fog over Gadsden... from the ABC 33/40 SKYCAM network...

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474. yqt1001
12:18 PM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nice forecast for International Falls, Minnesota. Wish I was there.



Call that low confidence as environment canada says snow isn't happening. :P
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473. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:16 PM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Lucky them, It will happen here soon enough. I've already packed my bags and I'm flying up there today:)


Another snow drought will just mean more drought so I'm hoping for snow for that as well.

Go to school, Isaac.
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472. washingtonian115
12:15 PM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Lucky them, It will happen here soon enough. I've already packed my bags and I'm flying up there today:)


Another snow drought will just mean more drought so I'm hoping for snow for that as well.
They all ready get snow flakes..I'm jealous.Oh well.I will have to wait till December perhaps.With the way the pattern has been it seems it could foreshadow at least a snow event in then.I'm hoping!.Tired of seeing bare ground..
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471. wxchaser97
12:10 PM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nice forecast for International Falls, Minnesota. Wish I was there.


Lucky them, It will happen here soon enough. I've already packed my bags and I'm flying up there today:)

Quoting washingtonian115:
We don't want no snow drought here in the U.S.That has been one of the biggest reasons the Mid-west is in a drought now and the Mississippi river was at record lows.

Another snow drought will just mean more drought so I'm hoping for snow for that as well.
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470. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:07 PM GMT on September 20, 2012
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469. washingtonian115
12:06 PM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

If that is the latest run it actually puts snow in for a good part of the northern US, Link.

Here is an image showing snowfall accumulation.
We don't want no snow drought here in the U.S.That has been one of the biggest reasons the Mid-west is in a drought now and the Mississippi river was at record lows.
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468. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:06 PM GMT on September 20, 2012
Nice forecast for International Falls, Minnesota. Wish I was there.

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467. wxchaser97
11:59 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW that a big one at 384HR!!

If that is the latest run it actually puts snow in for a good part of the northern US, Link.

Here is an image showing snowfall accumulation.
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466. wxchaser97
11:57 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
I finished another blog on Nadine and 94L.
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465. SFLWeatherman
11:57 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
WOW that a big one at 384HR!!
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464. wxchaser97
11:54 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
94L remains at 40%

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND GALE FORCE WINDS
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE THEREAFTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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463. wxchaser97
11:51 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
"THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE LAUNCHED BY THE
NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES."

Well we know the Global Hawk is out, as for the winds are the really only 50mph?
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462. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:49 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
"THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE LAUNCHED BY THE
NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES."
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461. wxchaser97
11:47 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
50 mph winds with a pressure of 981 millibars...makes sense.

Not really.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE CONTINUES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 29.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF PICO IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


Of course it does, there are some things I just don't get.

Quoting originalLT:
Maybe they mean 991mb? On post #458.

No they mean 981mb, it isn't a typo.
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460. originalLT
11:45 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Maybe they mean 991mb? On post #458.
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459. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:43 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Invest 93E remains at 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU SEP 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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458. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:42 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
50 mph winds with a pressure of 981 millibars...makes sense.

Not really.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 36A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012

...NADINE CONTINUES MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 29.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF PICO IN THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
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456. LargoFl
11:31 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
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455. LargoFl
11:28 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
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454. MoeWest
11:28 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Effects of Sanba in Valdivostok

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453. LargoFl
11:26 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
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452. wxchaser97
11:25 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting java162:


thanks

You're welcome, I'm happy to give you helpful resources like that.
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451. LargoFl
11:25 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
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450. LargoFl
11:23 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
new brunswick might get yet another hit from something tropical if this track holds true...............
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449. LargoFl
11:20 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Local 7-day doesnt show it GT..maybe its not our storm..
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448. WxLogic
11:20 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The Canadian Model also has it.



Not as aggressive as yesterday but there.
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447. LargoFl
11:19 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
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446. WxLogic
11:18 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Good morning allan and Wxlogic, hopefully the weather is good where you both are.


Morning... is cloudy here with some sporadic light PRECIP.
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445. WxLogic
11:17 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
P27L could still surprise us. Will be interesting to see the interaction it will have with the weakening ULL to its W and the stalled out front in the C GOM.

A STS could develop out of this interaction. If the convection blow up to the N of Jamaica keeps up and/or intensifies then something might start "cooking" since it coincides with a small VORT MAX at 500MB.

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444. GTcooliebai
11:16 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
The Canadian Model also has it.

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443. LargoFl
11:16 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
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442. allancalderini
11:14 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Good morning allan and Wxlogic, hopefully the weather is good where you both are.
Likewise I am going to the municipalidad in 10 minutes so that is why I am early my class and I need to sing at 5:45 in the morning and at afternoon is a tradition.
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441. LargoFl
11:14 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
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440. LargoFl
11:12 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
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439. java162
11:10 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Allan Huffman's Weather Model and Data Page, it has many models so bookmark it.
Choose which GFS run you are looking for and click the link on that page.


thanks
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438. wxchaser97
11:09 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning...
Quoting allancalderini:
Good morning

Good morning allan and Wxlogic, hopefully the weather is good where you both are.
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437. allancalderini
11:07 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Good morning
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436. wxchaser97
11:07 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting java162:


can i get a link to this model run

Allan Huffman's Weather Model and Data Page, it has many models so bookmark it.
Choose which GFS run you are looking for and click the link on that page.
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435. LargoFl
11:07 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Good Morning folks!............
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434. LargoFl
11:05 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
GFS tracks a system into the Caribbean and takes it into the GOM:




Looks like more rain for us
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433. WxLogic
11:04 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Good Morning...
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432. java162
11:03 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
GFS tracks a system into the Caribbean and takes it into the GOM:






can i get a link to this model run
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431. GTcooliebai
10:55 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
GFS tracks a system into the Caribbean and takes it into the GOM:




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430. wxchaser97
10:53 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning, everyone. I wonder if they used the Global Hawk drone as they said they would for this year's hurricanes. They were just talking about it on TWC.

Morning aislinnpaps, I don't know but if so that would begin to give a better understanding.
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429. wxchaser97
10:51 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. 94L is definitely trying to acquire tropical characteristics. It's not there yet but I think it will eventually make it. I'm thinking we'll see classification sometime tomorrow.


Good morning MA, I think the percentage should be raised and classification late tonight or tomorrow.
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428. MAweatherboy1
10:43 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Good morning. 94L is definitely trying to acquire tropical characteristics. It's not there yet but I think it will eventually make it. I'm thinking we'll see classification sometime tomorrow.

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427. aislinnpaps
10:30 AM GMT on September 20, 2012
Quoting Thing342:
One was investigating Nadine last night.


Thanks. I wonder if they will publish the findings anywhere public.

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather