Super Typhoon Jelawat headed towards Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2012

Super Typhoon Jelawat completed an eyewall replacement cycle over the past 24 hours, resulting in a slight weakening of the storm below Category 5 strength. Jelawat is now a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. Fortunately, Jelawat is located well east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm is not expected to hit land while it is at major typhoon strength. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C that extend to great depth, so it is possible that Jelawat could regain Category 5 status later today. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 25 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, then turn to the north and north-northeast a few hundred miles east of Taiwan. Jelawat will likely pass close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 typhoon on Friday near 20 UTC, and could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm over the weekend. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Thursday, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Jelawat taken at 7:12 am EDT Tuesday September 26, 2012. A solid ring of echoes surrounds the calm eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Miriam steadily weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam is being attacked by high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, and satellite imagery shows the storm is falling apart. High wind shear in excess of 30 knots will attack Miriam by Thursday, and Miriam should dissipate off the coast of Baja by Friday. Miriam's moisture is expected to stay out to sea.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 25, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Except for Nadine, the Atlantic is quiet
Never-say-die Tropical Storm Nadine continues to wander in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far from any land areas. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model--though the model shows Nadine stopping short of a direct hit on the islands. Nadine has already been around as a named storm for thirteen days, and will still probably be around a week from now. According to the Tropical Cyclone FAQ, the average Atlantic named storm lasts about six days, and the all-time longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone lasted 27.75 days.

A small area of heavy thunderstorms has developed about 700 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, is struggling with dry air, and none of the reliable computer models are predicting development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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15 Days later at the NHC...


...NADINE STILL SWIRLING AROUND LIKE THE PAST 17 DAYS PRIOR, NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH, THE MONTH-LONG CYCLONE WILL BE RETIRED SO WE DON'T HAVE TO HEAR THE NAME EVER AGAIN...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
Advisory #113
5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 11
Location: 29.2%uFFFDN 52.8%uFFFDW
Moving: SW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


So much for the Karen Jokes.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Only get to see these a few times a decade...

Pin-wheel eye



Is it just me or is Jelawat the most beautiful storm ever......in all its phases so far.
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Quoting MrMixon:


Yep!


Thanks! There are a few versions roaming around out there and this is the one I was looking for. :)
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Quoting angelafritz:


He created a "blogosphere" comic at one point, didn't he? I remember seeing one with Jeff Masters as an island. Not sure if that was him or not.



Yes, he did that sketch based on "size" (number of hits) of websites, and Jeff linked to it here on the blog.


here is the 2010 updated version: http://xkcd.com/802/
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting angelafritz:


He created a "blogosphere" comic at one point, didn't he? I remember seeing one with Jeff Masters as an island. Not sure if that was him or not.


Yep! Dr. Masters is in the Blogosphere inset in the lower left.


(click image for link to original... and somebody let me know if embedding this is a no-no)
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Quoting Thing342:

If it lasts 26 days, this is where it would be.
Greatest duration %u2020
Sources: NOAA[2][3][4],Tropical Atlantic[5]
Duration
(days) Name Date
28 Hurricane San Ciriaco August 1899
27.25 Hurricane Ginger September 1971
26 Hurricane Nadine September 2012
24.75 Hurricane Inga September 1969
23 Hurricane Joan-Miriam%u2021 October 1988
22 Hurricane Kyle September 2002
21 Storm 4 September 1926
20.75 Hurricane Carrie September 1957
20.75 Hurricane Inez September 1966
19.75 Hurricane Alberto August 2000
19.25 Storm 9 September 1893
19 Hurricane Irene-Olivia%u2021 September 1971

Dr. Masters is going with the more accurate assumption that the 1899 Hurricane needs to be tweaked in the record books, so he's going with Hurricane Ginger as the longest lived Atlantic Tropical Cyclone.
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Quoting Doppler22:

not weather related.............


Neither is your retort... Could we see a real live Fujiwara in the WPAC??
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting docrod:
Thunderblizzard-Hurricane

The replacement weatherman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4rP_KZnvaA

- don't know if this has been posted. Enjoy if not.


I posted it yesterday, but some probably missed it. ;)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


<3 xkcd
I love that it's an intelligent, science-based comic and I love that Randall mentions Wunderground in his comic at times. :)


He created a "blogosphere" comic at one point, didn't he? I remember seeing one with Jeff Masters as an island. Not sure if that was him or not.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Nadine sure has been having a good time out there:


Yeah she has, I do agree that there are many uncertainties regarding Nadine's future.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Looking like European unrest is beginning to unfold. Not counting the Middle East unrest. Maybe the foretold events are getting ready to unfold for the world. And reaching America's shores.

Thousands of demonstrators took to the streets in Greece to protest new austerity measures. Meanwhile, anti-austerity protests in Madrid turned violent ahead of the Spanish government's release of its 2013 budget plan.

"Between the protests in Spain, strikes in Greece, the looming Spanish budget...there's plenty to be worried about," said Kathy Lien, managing director of foreign exchange strategy for BK Asset Management. "If the new reform packages and the 2013 budget contain some overly painful cutbacks, we could see more social unrest in Spain."


not weather related.............
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The Sun has risen on Ewiniar.



It'll get to Jelawat before too long and provide yet another night of spectacular visible images. Jelawat will easily become the storm with the globe's highest ACE this year so far.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Thunderblizzard-Hurricane

The replacement weatherman

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w4rP_KZnvaA

- don't know if this has been posted. Enjoy if not.
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Nadine sure has been having a good time out there:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Jelawat is weakening slower than originally anticipated. It remains a very powerful 130kt Cat 4 as of the latest JTWC advisory, and is now expected to be a low end Cat 3 as it goes over Okinawa. It's developing a large eye:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Only get to see these a few times a decade...

Pin-wheel eye

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I wouldn't be so sold on Nadine becoming our longest lived storm yet. First, as TA mentioned it's possible/likely it will become non-tropical for a while at some point, so that will hurt it's chances. I'm also expecting models to come around to a faster solution on getting it out of the Atlantic. I doubt it survives more than 10 days, if that.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
How many days will it take Nadine to surpass Michael?


According to ACE equation (10^-4*v^2) which is calculated 6 hours, Nadine, who produces 45 knots winds get an ACE of 0.2 each 6 hours (0.8 per day).

So if she maintains these wind speeds, in 2 days she wins 2012
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Very disappointed in Miriam. Would have liked to have seen the moisture into New Mexico. Sigh!
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Quoting allancalderini:
How many days will it take Nadine to surpass Michael?

Actually that is something I don't know or I would've included that.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Nadine will stick around long enough for Christmas it seems.


Nadine may take over first place if she stays alive and tropical long enough.
How many days will it take Nadine to surpass Michael?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Nadine reminds me of the Christmas shopping season with the kids.They see a toy that they want on a commercial in August..they harass me to get it for them for the next two-three months and I finally cave in after a while.They won't leave me alone and stop bothering me..Same with Nadine..she won't leave and forecasters are getting bored/bothered by her...

Nadine will stick around long enough for Christmas it seems.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
2012 Atlantic hurricane season ACE

1. Hurricane Michael (C3): 16.4975 units
2. Hurricane Nadine (C1): 15.0125 units
3. Hurricane Leslie (C1): 14.7500 units
4. Hurricane Isaac (C1): 9.4725 units
5. Hurricane Gordon (C2): 8.1900 units
6. Hurricane Ernesto (C1): 7.7050 units
7. Hurricane Kirk (C2): 7.5100 units
8. Hurricane Chris (C1): 2.7200 units
9. Tropical Storm Debby (TS): 2.4500 units
10. Tropical Storm Florence (TS): 1.4375 units
11. Tropical Storm Alberto (TS): 1.3750 units
12. Tropical Storm Beryl (TS): 0.8650 units
13. Tropical Storm Helene (TS): 0.2450 units
13. Tropical Storm Joyce (TS): 0.2450 units

Total: 88.47 units

Nadine may take over first place if she stays alive and tropical long enough.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2012 Atlantic hurricane season ACE

1. Hurricane Michael (C3): 16.4975 units
2. Hurricane Nadine (C1): 15.0125 units
3. Hurricane Leslie (C1): 14.7500 units
4. Hurricane Isaac (C1): 9.4725 units
5. Hurricane Gordon (C2): 8.1900 units
6. Hurricane Ernesto (C1): 7.7050 units
7. Hurricane Kirk (C2): 7.5100 units
8. Hurricane Chris (C1): 2.7200 units
9. Tropical Storm Debby (TS): 2.4500 units
10. Tropical Storm Florence (TS): 1.4375 units
11. Tropical Storm Alberto (TS): 1.3750 units
12. Tropical Storm Beryl (TS): 0.8650 units
13. Tropical Storm Helene (TS): 0.2450 units
13. Tropical Storm Joyce (TS): 0.2450 units

Total: 88.47 units
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Nadine reminds me of the Christmas shopping season with the kids.They see a toy that they want on a commercial in August..they harass me to get it for them for the next two-three months and I finally cave in after a while.They won't leave me alone and stop bothering me..Same with Nadine..she won't leave and forecasters are getting bored/bothered by her...
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Nadine ?

Honey is dat you' ?




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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine will probably transition into a subtropical or extratropical cyclone for a few days in about 48 to 72 hours as it moves over Sea Surface Temperatures less than 25C. I doubt we would have seen the end of it though as the models show the storm entering warmer waters and a better wind shear environment once again by the end of the period.

She already went subtropical to extra-tropical to tropical so I wouldn't be surprised if she did that again. I think we still have a while with Nadine.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
On waves of love my heart is breaking
And stranger still my self control
I can't rely on anymore
New tides surprise my world it's changing
Within this frame an ocean swells
Behind this smile I know it well
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Los Trof ?

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Nadine will probably transition into a subtropical or extratropical cyclone for a few days in about 48 to 72 hours as it moves over Sea Surface Temperatures less than 25C. I doubt we would have seen the end of it though as the models show the storm entering warmer waters and a better wind shear environment once again by the end of the period.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop


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...MIRIAM MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND STEADILY WEAKENING...
2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 26
Location: 20.8°N 115.4°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 20.8N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.6N 115.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.4N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 22.8N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 22.9N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 22.9N 117.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 22.9N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED


...NADINE NOW MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 26
Location: 30.2°N 30.8°W
Moving: SSW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 30.2N 30.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 29.4N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 28.8N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 29.0N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 29.7N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 32.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 35.5N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 36.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

NADINE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING...NOW
PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN EARLIER OSCAT
OVERPASS SHOWED 40 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATED FROM TAFB HAS INCREASED TO 45 KT.
BASED ON THESE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. NADINE IS
PRODUCING GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...DROPSONDES FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT
NORTH OF NADINE SHOW 35-40 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING DRY AIR
TOWARD THE STORM. LATER DROPSONDES SHOULD HELP DETERMINE HOW MUCH
OF THESE WINDS/DRY AIR ARE ACTUALLY REACHING THE CORE OF NADINE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 200/4. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...FORECASTING NADINE TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD...WESTWARD...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.
THE GUIDANCE AGAIN BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT AFTER 72 HR. WHILE THE
MODELS NOW AGREE THAT NADINE WILL NOT RECURVE AHEAD OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THERE CONTINUE TO BE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN
THE DIRECTION OF MOTION AFTER 96 HR. THE GFDL...GFS...AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST
DUE TO RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. FINALLY...THE HWRF AND
THE CANADIAN SHOW LITTLE MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...AND THEN IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD AFTER 96
HR...THE NEW FORECAST IS FOR A VERY SLOW MOTION DURING THIS TIME.
THE NEW TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A COMPLICATED UPPER-LEVEL
WIND PATTERN NEAR NADINE. FIRST IS THE 400 MB NORTHERLY WINDS
MENTIONED ABOVE AND THEIR POSSIBLE IMPACT ON THE STORM. SECOND...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N47W...WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF NADINE. STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...BUT
ARE CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ALL FORECAST INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR NADINE AFTER
36 HR. HOWEVER...THEY ALL SHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD
CONTINUE TO SHELTER NADINE FROM THE WORST OF THE SHEAR. FINALLY...
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NADINE MERGING WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW BY 120 HR...WHICH COULD CHANGE THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.
PROBABLY THE LEAST COMPLICATED PART OF THIS FORECAST IS THAT NADINE
SHOULD MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 36 HR. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48-72
HR. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL AFFECT
NADINE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SHORTER WINDOW FOR
STRENGTHENING...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY IN 24-36 HR. IT ALSO CALLS
FOR LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY
CONSENSUS MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 30.2N 30.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 29.4N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 28.8N 32.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 29.0N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 29.7N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 32.5N 36.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 35.5N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 36.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132012
200 PM PDT WED SEP 26 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MIRIAM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AS THE
20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DIAGNOSED OVER THE CYCLONE IS
GRADUALLY TAKING A TOLL. INNER CORE CONVECTION IS MINIMAL...AND
DEEP CONVECTION IN A BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CIRCULATION HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING...AND A BLEND OF T-
AND CI-NUMBERS IS USED TO ARRIVE AT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 50 KT.

NO DECREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE COMBINATION OF THE
SHEAR...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF A
SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST ABOUT THE
SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS LINE WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...
AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS INDICATED IN 48
HOURS...THOUGH IT COULD OCCUR SOONER.

MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WERE USED TO MAKE AN
EASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER....AND HAVE BEEN HELPFUL IN
ESTABLISHING A MORE CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION OF 350/06. SO LONG AS
AS THE CIRCULATION OF MIRIAM MAINTAINS VERTICAL INTEGRITY...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE CYCLONICALLY AROUND A PIECE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND THE STORM. AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE AND RESPONDS TO THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW...A
WESTWARD BEND IS ANTICIPATED. THIS BEND COULD EVEN BE TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...AS DEPICTED IN SEVERAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 24
HOURS...NEAR BUT TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 20.8N 115.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.6N 115.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.4N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 22.8N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 22.9N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z 22.9N 117.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1800Z 22.9N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Nadine should have no problems becoming the longest-lived tropical cyclone in history should the global models verify. Quite the spectacular event.
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For all the NFL fans:

http://replacementgoogle.com/
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Global Hawk over TS Nadine.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Unbelievable, that 1010 mb. low is Nadine, still with us on the 12th, if it makes it that far, I call for her retirement, despite not threatening any landmass, I think it was Klaus that was retired without affecting any landmass, correct me if I'm wrong.

Might be another Helene that it develop pretty fast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:


Radar loop
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148. JLPR2
12z GFS, 384hrs

Ridiculous, that's Nadine south of the Azores.

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Quoting Thing342:
I believe Martinique got it retired because it effectively rubbed salt into wounds already created by Hugo.


Well Nadine "kind of" affected the Azores. They're getting affected by more tropical cyclones than most places. I mean Gordon didn't do much, but still: if Nadine is forecast to do a triple whammy on the islands, it may make for an interesting next few months... or however long she decides to stick around for haha.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was not an Atlantic tropical cyclone.

Correct, but Nadine could even last longer than that.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was not an Atlantic tropical cyclone.

Really!!!!!
WOW!!!!
I never knew that?


I'm being sarcastic of course
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142. MTWX
Quoting AussieStorm:
Currently in the NE Pacific....



Forecast for West Prince William Sound:

Today: Rain...heavy at times in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. North to east wind 10 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Through portage valley and turnagain arm...east wind 20 to 35 mph increasing to 45 to 60 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Rain...heavy at times in the evening. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s...coolest inland. North to east wind 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph near whittier decreasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Through portage valley and turnagain arm...east wind 45 to 60 mph decreasing to 20 to 35 mph after midnight.

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Quoting AussieStorm:

Hurricane/Typhoon John was around for 31 days, also travelled 13,000 km (8000 mi).

It was not an Atlantic tropical cyclone.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
nice spin with the 10% one. windshear look high throughout the basin
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Quoting guygee:
All good points, thanks. The shift in where all the energy is being released is the most important aspect, that makes a lot of sense to me. Also the emphasis that it is an El Nino year, albeit a weak one...not a complete killer.

Interesting you should mention higher Sahel rainfall...perhaps tangential to your point, but it reminds me that William M. Gray dropped early Sahel rainfall out of his bag of tricks a long time ago.


It isn't, nor has there been an El Nino yet.
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Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather