Super Typhoon Jelawat headed towards Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2012

Super Typhoon Jelawat completed an eyewall replacement cycle over the past 24 hours, resulting in a slight weakening of the storm below Category 5 strength. Jelawat is now a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. Fortunately, Jelawat is located well east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm is not expected to hit land while it is at major typhoon strength. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C that extend to great depth, so it is possible that Jelawat could regain Category 5 status later today. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 25 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, then turn to the north and north-northeast a few hundred miles east of Taiwan. Jelawat will likely pass close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 typhoon on Friday near 20 UTC, and could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm over the weekend. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Thursday, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Jelawat taken at 7:12 am EDT Tuesday September 26, 2012. A solid ring of echoes surrounds the calm eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Miriam steadily weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam is being attacked by high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, and satellite imagery shows the storm is falling apart. High wind shear in excess of 30 knots will attack Miriam by Thursday, and Miriam should dissipate off the coast of Baja by Friday. Miriam's moisture is expected to stay out to sea.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 25, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Except for Nadine, the Atlantic is quiet
Never-say-die Tropical Storm Nadine continues to wander in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far from any land areas. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model--though the model shows Nadine stopping short of a direct hit on the islands. Nadine has already been around as a named storm for thirteen days, and will still probably be around a week from now. According to the Tropical Cyclone FAQ, the average Atlantic named storm lasts about six days, and the all-time longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone lasted 27.75 days.

A small area of heavy thunderstorms has developed about 700 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, is struggling with dry air, and none of the reliable computer models are predicting development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting guygee:
All good points, thanks. The shift in where all the energy is being released is the most important aspect, that makes a lot of sense to me. Also the emphasis that it is an El Nino year, albeit a weak one...not a complete killer.

Interesting you should mention higher Sahel rainfall...perhaps tangential to your point, but it reminds me that William M. Gray dropped early Sahel rainfall out of his bag of tricks a long time ago.


It isn't, nor has there been an El Nino yet.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


According to stats, it would be only behind the 1899 hurricane (28) and Hurricane Ginger (27) with 26 days.

Hurricane/Typhoon John was around for 31 days, also travelled 13,000 km (8000 mi).
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

3rd?

If it lasts 26 days, this is where it would be.
Greatest duration %u2020
Sources: NOAA[2][3][4],Tropical Atlantic[5]
Duration
(days) Name Date
28 Hurricane San Ciriaco August 1899
27.25 Hurricane Ginger September 1971
26 Hurricane Nadine September 2012
24.75 Hurricane Inga September 1969
23 Hurricane Joan-Miriam%u2021 October 1988
22 Hurricane Kyle September 2002
21 Storm 4 September 1926
20.75 Hurricane Carrie September 1957
20.75 Hurricane Inez September 1966
19.75 Hurricane Alberto August 2000
19.25 Storm 9 September 1893
19 Hurricane Irene-Olivia%u2021 September 1971
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The next 7 days look to be calm and cool for me.


Miriam is really fading fast due to cooler waters and stronger shear. She won't be a tropical storm for too much longer the way things are going.
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Quoting guygee:
Either it cools by evaporation and comes down as snow or it radiates out into space...the former is a lot more fun than the latter.
Well, definitely an over-simplification, especially for the Great Lakes, where there is a lot of convection in the water, cooler waters sinking and lower water upwelling...turnover, as well as wind and sloshing effects to help. That plays a really large part in the surface temperatures, the lakes are not stratified like most of the ocean.

When I have to correct myself I must be getting screen-weary...BBL.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. Jelawat is still going really strong, Okinawa is likely going to get a direct hit or close to a direct hit from a Cat 2 or 3 typhoon.




Good afternoon MA, the last thing they need is another hit from a strong typhoon.
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Good afternoon. Jelawat is still going really strong, Okinawa is likely going to get a direct hit or close to a direct hit from a Cat 2 or 3 typhoon.



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Quoting CybrTeddy:


According to stats, it would be only behind the 1899 hurricane and Hurricane Ginger with 26 days.

1899 hurricane, would've sucked to go through that


Hurricane Ginger, took a weird path


Finally we have Nadine, her future is unknown.
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I've never seen anything quite like the models are predicting for a forecast path for Nadine. It end up making two more loops south of the Azores and still be going strong if the GFS was to be accurate. The ECMWF ends up taking Nadine all the way back down south to ~28N by 240 hours.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
The GFS has Nadine around through 384 hours, or for a total life span of an incredible 32 days.

If that verified then Nadine would break the all-time record and I would be sick of forecasting/hearing that name.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

3rd?


According to stats, it would be only behind the 1899 hurricane (28) and Hurricane Ginger (27) with 26 days.
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The GFS has Nadine around through 384 hours, or for a total life span of an incredible 32 days.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Don't worry Slam, as long as we get cold air masses we will get lake effect snow. No matter what we should see some lake enhanced snow as well.


Ya, well, we had that cool down the last week or so, but now we're pretty warm and sunny (at least me, haha), so maybe we'll still end up on the warm side. But ya, need those cold Canuck air masses over all else!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nadine, if the ECMWF is correct, might be around for another 10 days. Insane, that would make Nadine's life span a total of 26 days, or the 3rd longest lived tropical cyclone in recorded history in the Atlantic.

I do have a feeling that she will be sticking around for a while, it will be nice to get a new storm.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nadine, if the ECMWF is correct, might be around for another 10 days. Insane, that would make Nadine's life span a total of 26 days, or the 3rd longest lived tropical cyclone in recorded history in the Atlantic.

3rd?
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Nadine, if the ECMWF is correct, might be around for another 10 days. Insane, that would make Nadine's life span a total of 26 days, or the 3rd longest lived tropical cyclone in recorded history in the Atlantic.
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Quoting Slamguitar:
Lake Michigan now at past 2 decade average surface temperature. I want lots of lake effect!! Cool down at a slower rate!! (Other lakes around average now too)
Either it cools by evaporation and comes down as snow or it radiates out into space...the former is a lot more fun than the latter.

Nitpick...nice graphic but I do not like the color map...hard to tell the difference between some of those alternating darker bands, so you have to search for nesting, which is against the principle of a good color map.
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Quoting Slamguitar:
Lake Michigan now at past 2 decade average surface temperature. I want lots of lake effect!! Cool down at a slower rate!! (Other lakes around average now too)




Don't worry Slam, as long as we get cold air masses we will get lake effect snow. No matter what we should see some lake enhanced snow as well.
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DOOM!!!!
lol

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Lake Michigan now at past 2 decade average surface temperature. I want lots of lake effect!! Cool down at a slower rate!! (Other lakes around average now too)



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Quoting LostTomorrows:
Does anyone have a legit satellite feed on Nadine? I cannot find one, but she appears to be looking better and better, and may end up stronger than forecast after all.
The CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Group site is one of the best out there, navigate to it from the CIMMS homepage...be sure to check out the CIMSS Satellite Blog while you are there. Also, here is the official SSD POES site.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I think of it as the aliens messing with our satellites from Independence Day.

I can't wait for the problem to be fixed.


that's a better way ti put it... or what if those were the air ships they come in?
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
It might be hard to see, but 1002 mb. low hugging the Gulf Coast in 5 days:


I see it, development is possible in that area and Nadine is sticking around.
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It might be hard to see, but 1002 mb. low hugging the Gulf Coast in 5 days:

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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

PRC023-067-093-097-121-125-153-262100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0359.120926T1800Z-120926T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HORMIGUEROS PR-MARICAO PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-
CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
200 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HORMIGUEROS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN GERMAN...YAUCO...
CABO ROJO AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 158 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. OVER ONE INCH
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
TWO ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 500 PM AST. THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID RIVER
RISES AND FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1815 6687 1805 6692 1808 6721 1814 6719
1817 6720 1820 6717 1823 6718 1825 6718

$$

JJA
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Unbelievable, that 1010 mb. low is Nadine, still with us on the 12th, if it makes it that far, I call for her retirement, despite not threatening any landmass, I think it was Klaus that was retired without affecting any landmass, correct me if I'm wrong.

I believe Martinique got it retired because it effectively rubbed salt into wounds already created by Hugo.
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Quoting LostTomorrows:
Does anyone have a legit satellite feed on Nadine? I cannot find one, but she appears to be looking better and better, and may end up stronger than forecast after all.

First, here is a link to the RAMMB site which has multiple satellite images of Nadine, Link
Also try the NAVY site as they have satellite images, Link

Here is a current image of Nadine:
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Does anyone have a legit satellite feed on Nadine? I cannot find one, but she appears to be looking better and better, and may end up stronger than forecast after all.
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Quoting Cotillion:
Link

Just a video on some of the flooding we've received due to Nadine's doppelganger - from the city of York (where I was working today).

Some places got two months worth of rain in just a couple of days.


Oh my Cotillion! That's amazing. Please stay safe
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Google releases 'underwater street view' of Great Barrier Reef, more


Good luck getting driving directions.

A new partnership between mapping giant Google and The Catlin Seaview Survey, a major scientific study of the world’s reefs, allows you to surf through the world’s oceans with the first underwater panoramas in Google Maps.

The company has updated its Street View feature to incorporate the amazing images of the Great Barrier Reef, Hanauma Bay in Hawaii, and other sites in Australia, the Philippines and more.

“Whether you’re a marine biologist, an avid scuba diver or a landlocked landlubber, we encourage you to dive in and explore the ocean with Google Maps,” wrote Brian McClendon, vice president of Google Maps and Earth, in a blog post unveiling the new feature.

He called the new images “the next step in our quest to provide people with the most comprehensive, accurate and usable map of the world.”

A cruise through the new art work reveals stunning sights: a sea turtle swimming among a school of fish, a manta ray adrift, and the reef at sunset. Or visit the entire collection and choose a virtual destination yourself.

The images were captured with a specially designed underwater camera, the Catlin Seaview SVII. It takes rapid-fire 360-degree images every 3 seconds while traveling at a speed of approximately 2.5 miles per hour. Images are then stitched together and published online to create the virtual dive, the company explains.

There are currently only two SVII’s in in the world, according to the Seaview Survey. One is named Sylvia after oceanographer, aquanaut and author Sylvia Earle, the second Ron after the legendary shark photographer Ron Taylor.

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

that's the monster storm in the day after tomorrow movie...lol

I think of it as the aliens messing with our satellites from Independence Day.

I can't wait for the problem to be fixed.
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that's the monster storm in the day after tomorrow movie...lol
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I notice the script on this site acts like cold water on graphics that are too large...automatic shrinkage.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Currently in the NE Pacific....



they can deal with that...they had a 943mb low early this year...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Beautiful tropical cyclone, deadly, but beautiful.



deadly...that's right!
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Currently in the NE Pacific....

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It 84 and Humidity of 56% not bad for WPB!!:)
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Looking at the long "trail" from
Puerto Rico to the Turks and Caicos...

(should I put on my aluminum foil hat?)
: )


I think you better protect yourself with something, else if you stick your head up too high it is going to get hit by all of those blue barbed arrows.
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94E stays at 30%.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM COULD CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Still at 10% but I'm not surprised as it's not doing too good.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Beautiful tropical cyclone, deadly, but beautiful.

It would be great if it didn't hit land, I think someone will get some bad impacts.
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Hurricane Isaac and the Saffir Simpson scale, my latest blog.
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Beautiful tropical cyclone, deadly, but beautiful.
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1248 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

PRC059-075-111-113-261945-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0358.120926T1648Z-120926T1945Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYANILLA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE PR-
1248 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYANILLA...JUANA DIAZ...PENUELAS AND PONCE

* UNTIL 345 PM AST

* AT 1245 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. OVER ONE INCH RAIN HAS
ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 345 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1811 6678 1812 6675 1811 6673 1813 6671
1813 6668 1815 6665 1815 6653 1798 6651
1797 6677 1799 6677 1797 6678 1797 6682

$$

JJA
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:
Link

Just a video on some of the flooding we've received due to Nadine's doppelganger - from the city of York (where I was working today).

Some places got two months worth of rain in just a couple of days.
Hi. What a shame. I visited York many years ago and loved it. I feel so bad for all those people. The mud and mildew and what not they will find. And you have winter coming on the heels of this. Hopefully it will be a mild winter for UK. Take care.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather