Super Typhoon Jelawat headed towards Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2012

Super Typhoon Jelawat completed an eyewall replacement cycle over the past 24 hours, resulting in a slight weakening of the storm below Category 5 strength. Jelawat is now a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. Fortunately, Jelawat is located well east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm is not expected to hit land while it is at major typhoon strength. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C that extend to great depth, so it is possible that Jelawat could regain Category 5 status later today. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 25 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, then turn to the north and north-northeast a few hundred miles east of Taiwan. Jelawat will likely pass close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 typhoon on Friday near 20 UTC, and could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm over the weekend. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Thursday, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Jelawat taken at 7:12 am EDT Tuesday September 26, 2012. A solid ring of echoes surrounds the calm eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Miriam steadily weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam is being attacked by high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, and satellite imagery shows the storm is falling apart. High wind shear in excess of 30 knots will attack Miriam by Thursday, and Miriam should dissipate off the coast of Baja by Friday. Miriam's moisture is expected to stay out to sea.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 25, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Except for Nadine, the Atlantic is quiet
Never-say-die Tropical Storm Nadine continues to wander in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far from any land areas. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model--though the model shows Nadine stopping short of a direct hit on the islands. Nadine has already been around as a named storm for thirteen days, and will still probably be around a week from now. According to the Tropical Cyclone FAQ, the average Atlantic named storm lasts about six days, and the all-time longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone lasted 27.75 days.

A small area of heavy thunderstorms has developed about 700 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, is struggling with dry air, and none of the reliable computer models are predicting development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting Cotillion:
Link

Just a video on some of the flooding we've received due to Nadine's doppelganger - from the city of York (where I was working today).

Some places got two months worth of rain in just a couple of days.
Hi. What a shame. I visited York many years ago and loved it. I feel so bad for all those people. The mud and mildew and what not they will find. And you have winter coming on the heels of this. Hopefully it will be a mild winter for UK. Take care.
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GOES 14, the satellite currently subsituting for the ailing GOES 13, is of the same generation and could be repositioned to provide resolution as good as before if GOES 13 can't be fixed.

Spaceflight Now | Breaking News | Engineers looking into cause of weather satellite anomaly
....
The GOES 13 satellite, stationed over the equator at 75 degrees west longitude, began showing noise in imaging and sounding data about two weeks ago.

The satellite's imager and sounder instruments were placed in standby mode Sunday.

Engineers rushed the GOES 14 spare satellite into duty to cover the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and much of the U.S. East Coast.

John Leslie, a NOAA spokesperson, said Tuesday there was no decision yet to transfer GOES 14 from a storage location at 105 degrees west to GOES 13's location further east.
....
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Quoting captainktainer:


Ah, thanks, I hadn't seen that most recent microwave image, and if I had I wouldn't have asked.

You're welcome, still a fascinating storm annular or not.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Link

Just a video on some of the flooding we've received due to Nadine's doppelganger - from the city of York (where I was working today).

Some places got two months worth of rain in just a couple of days.
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Looking at the long "trail" from

Puerto Rico to the Turks and Caicos...

(should I put on my aluminum foil hat?)

: )
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Unbelievable, that 1010 mb. low is Nadine, still with us on the 12th, if it makes it that far, I call for her retirement, despite not threatening any landmass, I think it was Klaus that was retired without affecting any landmass, correct me if I'm wrong.



Martinique got it retired.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Unbelievable, that 1010 mb. low is Nadine, still with us on the 12th, if it makes it that far, I call for her retirement, despite not threatening any landmass, I think it was Klaus that was retired without affecting any landmass, correct me if I'm wrong.



And will that SW Caribbean low that GFS shows be the start from the 12th to develop? It has been pushing back the timeframe with that on past runs.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

Jelawat does have a clear eye and a good eyewall after the EWRC, he could even strengthen a little again. Though Jelawat will not become an annular typhoon even if strengthening occurs. There is too much banding going on with Jelawat and a typhoon/hurricane can't be annular with banding.


Ah, thanks, I hadn't seen that most recent microwave image, and if I had I wouldn't have asked.
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
80. wpb
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Good morning Atlantic Ocean! Here's the view from the belly of our Global Hawk science drone a few minutes ago, flying at 54,000 ft on the way to study Tropical Storm Nadine again as part of our HS3 hurricane mission

nice do u have there link?
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Unbelievable, that 1010 mb. low is Nadine, still with us on the 12th, if it makes it that far, I call for her retirement, despite not threatening any landmass, I think it was Klaus that was retired without affecting any landmass, correct me if I'm wrong.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Looks like September wont cut it rainwise for GA, except for a few areas that got trained over and were slightly above normal.

Alabama stole all the rain.
And the storms.
Again.



Looks like NOAA was wrong about GA getting a TC this year so far, and without more big troughs forecast, i would say the 10inch rainfall deficit will not increase or decrease much, which is good, because we arent having drought effects, and would not like to start
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Quoting captainktainer:


Looking at that loop, it looks like the eye has gotten very wide, and the convection is wrapped in a thick, circular band. I was reading about annular cyclones yesterday, and my understanding is that they tend to form as an eyewall replacement cycle ends, and as the cyclone moves into colder water. I've been watching the IR and visible loops for Jelawat over the last several days, and I've never seen the convection in a thick band like that even in the middle of EWRCs before. So... what do people think? A few hours ago, people seemed to dismiss the idea, from looking at the older blog, but it looks a lot different now.

And looking at the historical record, it seems like Typhoon Jelawat of 2000 was annular. So there's some precedent, at least.

Jelawat does have a clear eye and a good eyewall after the EWRC, he could even strengthen a little again. Though Jelawat will not become an annular typhoon even if strengthening occurs. There is too much banding going on with Jelawat and a typhoon/hurricane can't be annular with banding.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
A real powerful PNA ridge is forecasted to develop out west and over Alaska! No doubt because of these two typhoons. A Greenland block will also develop but shift from west-to-east based while a polar vortex will drift from the davis straight to se canada before breaking down.

All this should telleconnect to a powerful east US trough and western ridging by the second week of October(7-13th)!!!
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168 hrs. need to keep an eye on the BOC as the shape of the landmass there can get something going in a jiffy.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Typhoon Jelawat has gone from an average size Typhoon to a very large typhoon.

JELAWAT MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 250 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 210 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 220 km/hr


CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed September 26, 2012
Location of Eye: 18.2º N Lat 126.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 402 km (ESE) closer to Sta. Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 404 km (ENE) away from Palanan, Isabela
Distance 3: 459 km (ENE) away from Ilagan City
Distance 4: 460 km (ENE) away from Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 489 km (ESE) closer to Calayan Island
Distance 6: 491 km (SE) closer to Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 725 km (SSE) closer to Ishigaki Jima
Distance 8: 790 km (SSE) closer to Hualien, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 250 kph (135 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 305 kph (165 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Ishigaki-Okinawa Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 1000 km (540 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 47 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)



SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, ENDING IN A BIGGER 25-NM EYE.
THIS IS CORROBORATED BY A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING ONE
FROM A 261112Z SSMI-S PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED FROM THE
ABOVE ANIMATION AND MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A
MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD AND IS APPROACHING A RIDGE AXIS TO THE
NORTH IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED
BY A POLEWARD STREAM INTO THE BACK END OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
THAT PASSED EASTWARD TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES CIRRI TRANSVERSE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, INDICATING VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WINDS. STY 18W IS TRACKING ALONG SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)TO THE EAST THAT HAS
SINCE REBUILT AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

TPPN10 PGTW 261438

A. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT)

B. 26/1432Z

C. 18.6N

D. 125.6E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/0933Z 18.1N 126.0E SSMS


NEWCOMER







Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Eyewall replacement appears to be entering its final stages with Jelawat.


Looking at that loop, it looks like the eye has gotten very wide, and the convection is wrapped in a thick, circular band. I was reading about annular cyclones yesterday, and my understanding is that they tend to form as an eyewall replacement cycle ends, and as the cyclone moves into colder water. I've been watching the IR and visible loops for Jelawat over the last several days, and I've never seen the convection in a thick band like that even in the middle of EWRCs before. So... what do people think? A few hours ago, people seemed to dismiss the idea, from looking at the older blog, but it looks a lot different now.

And looking at the historical record, it seems like Typhoon Jelawat of 2000 was annular. So there's some precedent, at least.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Well, not all systems are like Karen or Nadine, they don't live forever.

I guess I was getting used to seeing Nadine live on forever, Jelawat was one of the best looking storms this year.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yes, Jelawat has been impressive for awhile, sadly those days are coming to an end. Shear and cooler waters will weaken Jelawat and Jelawat will eventually turn into an extra-tropical storm.

Well, not all systems are like Karen or Nadine, they don't live forever.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Best part of that comic (aside from the science) is this:

"the unexplained meteorological phenomenon is simply dubbed a “Skrillex Storm”—because, in the words of one researcher, “It had one hell of a drop.”"


"dubbed"
Ar ar, I get it. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
end of the GFS run...168 hours
can Nadine break the 89 advisories of Kyle's?
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
What if a rainstorm dropped all of its water in a single giant drop?




http://what-if.xkcd.com/12/

Best part of that comic (aside from the science) is this:

"the unexplained meteorological phenomenon is simply dubbed a “Skrillex Storm”—because, in the words of one researcher, “It had one hell of a drop.”"
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Jelawat is very impressive today.


Yes, Jelawat has been impressive for awhile, sadly those days are coming to an end. Shear and cooler waters will weaken Jelawat and Jelawat will eventually turn into an extra-tropical storm.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Eyewall replacement appears to be entering its final stages with Jelawat.


I'm interested to see how much Jelawat's eyewall contracts back down.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
What if a rainstorm dropped all of its water in a single giant drop?




http://what-if.xkcd.com/12/


<3 xkcd
I love that it's an intelligent, science-based comic and I love that Randall mentions Wunderground in his comic at times. :)
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Quoting Levi32:
I don't have the statistics necessary to know what the average is. Technically it doesn't look too far away from the normal ratio, but I am of the opinion that a far better metric is to look at the strength of storms in different regions. As I mentioned, climatologically we should have had a lot more ACE being generated in the deep tropics, but every system has struggled to intensify until it made its way farther north or west.

I also have a hypothesis that the number of significant disturbances and cyclogenesis events south of 20N has been above average for an El Nino year this season due to a more active African wave train than normal, which has spit out stronger waves than usual this year, part of a multidecadal trend upward in Sahel rainfall and the strength of the African Easterly Jet. The problem has been that hostile conditions over the Atlantic have held those systems in check, and all below hurricane intensity, until they escape poleward.
All good points, thanks. The shift in where all the energy is being released is the most important aspect, that makes a lot of sense to me. Also the emphasis that it is an El Nino year, albeit a weak one...not a complete killer.

Interesting you should mention higher Sahel rainfall...perhaps tangential to your point, but it reminds me that William M. Gray dropped early Sahel rainfall out of his bag of tricks a long time ago.
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Jelawat is very impressive today.

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Good morning Atlantic Ocean! Here's the view from the belly of our Global Hawk science drone a few minutes ago, flying at 54,000 ft on the way to study Tropical Storm Nadine again as part of our HS3 hurricane mission



NASA just posted this shiny picture of that very bird:


(Click image for hugegantic version)
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Quoting guygee:
Thanks Levi. That is very remarkable.

I was rechecking this years tropical cyclogenesis locations, here is a summary
2012 Tropical Cyclone formation locations YTD
Source: NHC Data Archives

Alberto TD-N/A, TS-32.2N 77.7W
Beryl TD-N/A STS-32.5N 74.8W
Chris TD -N/A TS 39.3N 57.7W
Debby TD-N/A TS 26.2N 87.6W
Ernesto TD-12.2N 49.0W, TS-12.8N 56.6W
Florence TD-13.8N 27.8W, TS-14.8N 30.6W
Helene TD-13.7N 43.8W, TS-20.6N 96.1W
Gordon TD-20.6N 96.1W, TS-33.3N 53.8W
Isaac TD-15.2N 51.2W, TS-15.4N 53.9W
Joyce TD-12.4N 36.3W, TS-15.2N 42.2W
Kirk TD-23.8N 43.9W, TS-23.9N 45.0W
Leslie TD-14.1N 43.4W, TS-14.4N 45.3W
Michael TD-25.6N 42.2W, TS-27.0N 43.5W
Nadine TD-16.3N 43.1W, TS-17.8N 45.2W

So we have six out of 14 named storms originating north of 25N year-to-date. Is that a significantly high ratio, or is it just a small fluctuation due to chance? Maybe it is high after all. I guess one way to address this would be to simply compile the similar data for many past years then do a hypothesis test.


I don't have the statistics necessary to know what the average is. Technically it doesn't look too far away from the normal ratio, but I am of the opinion that a far better metric is to look at the strength of storms in different regions. As I mentioned, climatologically we should have had a lot more ACE being generated in the deep tropics, but every system has struggled to intensify until it made its way farther north or west.

I also have a hypothesis that the number of significant disturbances and cyclogenesis events south of 20N has been above average for an El Nino year this season due to a more active African wave train than normal, which has spit out stronger waves than usual this year, part of a multidecadal trend upward in Sahel rainfall and the strength of the African Easterly Jet. The problem has been that hostile conditions over the Atlantic have held those systems in check, and all below hurricane intensity, until they escape poleward.
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---
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Eyewall replacement appears to be entering its final stages with Jelawat.

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---
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Scientists Seek Insights into Outlier Drought Projections



-Andrew Freedman

Although official drought outlooks failed to provide Americans with advanced notice of one of the worst droughts to strike the U.S. since the Dust Bowl-era %u2014 a drought that is still ongoing %u2014 there were some computer models that got the forecast right. Viewed as outliers at the time by climate forecasters tasked with making seasonal forecasts, such models look downright prescient with hindsight.........




The GFDL forecast illustrates a dilemma that climate forecasters face, since models show varying levels of skill depending on the conditions at the time they are run. When an El Nio event is underway, for example, one model might become more reliable than another, just because of the ways it incorporates ocean temperatures into its complex series of calculations.
A european climate forecasting system, known as EUROSIP, that also showed some skill in predicting the drought and heat.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Looks to me like the CV season is winding down

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Oh look, someone has turned into a comedian. Thought that wasn't allowed here.
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Quoting Levi32:

Here's the more telling and significant stat:
Only one storm all season has acquired hurricane intensity while south of 25N. The majority of this season's ACE has been generated north of 30N and east of 50W.That is very offset from the norm, and is consistent with a typical El Nino season.
Thanks Levi. That is very remarkable.

I was rechecking this years tropical cyclogenesis locations, here is a summary
2012 Tropical Cyclone formation locations YTD
Source: NHC Data Archives

Alberto TD-N/A, TS-32.2N 77.7W
Beryl TD-N/A STS-32.5N 74.8W
Chris TD -N/A TS 39.3N 57.7W
Debby TD-N/A TS 26.2N 87.6W
Ernesto TD-12.2N 49.0W, TS-12.8N 56.6W
Florence TD-13.8N 27.8W, TS-14.8N 30.6W
Helene TD-13.7N 43.8W, TS-20.6N 96.1W
Gordon TD-29.9N 55.1W, TS-33.3N 53.8W
Isaac TD-15.2N 51.2W, TS-15.4N 53.9W
Joyce TD-12.4N 36.3W, TS-15.2N 42.2W
Kirk TD-23.8N 43.9W, TS-23.9N 45.0W
Leslie TD-14.1N 43.4W, TS-14.4N 45.3W
Michael TD-25.6N 42.2W, TS-27.0N 43.5W
Nadine TD-16.3N 43.1W, TS-17.8N 45.2W

So we have six out of 14 named storms originating north of 25N year-to-date. Is that a significantly high ratio, or is it just a small fluctuation due to chance? Maybe it is high after all. I guess one way to address this would be to simply compile the similar data for many past years then do a hypothesis test.
Edit - Gordon TD location corrected
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks doc.If shear levels don't calm down soon then the season might be shut down for business.The usual "breeding grounds" where the storms form this time of year have high shear values now.But if a season like 2009 can produce a storm in November then I guess this one can try to.I think around the 15 of next month is when we should start to watch out for development in the caribbean.

The low level of cloud over the MDR is allowing the SST's to pump up and that heat will begin to get deeper.
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Good morning Atlantic Ocean! Here's the view from the belly of our Global Hawk science drone a few minutes ago, flying at 54,000 ft on the way to study Tropical Storm Nadine again as part of our HS3 hurricane mission

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


The WPAC has the highest average large-scale vertical velocity values on Earth. It makes sense that the convective signal there would be amplified more by a vertical wave such as the MJO, causing stronger fluctuations than in other regions of lesser convective activity on average.


Ahh, but can it dance ?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

From Looking at the MJO model, when it does come around, it's going to be weak. Could be just enough to give us 1 or 2 more storms.
MJO seems to have much more effect in the WPAC than in the ATL. Any reason?


The WPAC has the highest average large-scale vertical velocity values on Earth. It makes sense that the convective signal there would be amplified more by a vertical wave such as the MJO, causing stronger fluctuations than in other regions of lesser convective activity on average.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

From Looking at the MJO model, when it does come around, it's going to be weak. Could be just enough to give us 1 or 2 more storms.
MJO seems to have much more effect in the WPAC than in the ATL. Any reason?


Like most comedians, The MJO like's a really big room as well.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Not sure if this got posted yesterday, but the child of Nadine (Karin) brought more than heavy rainfall and strong winds to the UK:

Sea Foam

Further to my post earlier this morning, the Environment Agency has still issued 57 flood warnings and 100 flood alerts for the UK - again mostly for the northeast and northwest of England.

Flood Alerts
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


I could see 1 or 2 more left in the tank for October. We've been without the support of the MJO for nearly a month now, but it is forecasted to return during the first half of October, which could generate some activity in the late-season climatological regions of the Caribbean, Bahamas, and Gulf of Mexico.

From Looking at the MJO model, when it does come around, it's going to be weak. Could be just enough to give us 1 or 2 more storms.
MJO seems to have much more effect in the WPAC than in the ATL. Any reason?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5 comments here.

Wowsa.


Forecasting Isaac



Stu Ostro, September 9, 2012

Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Dr. Masters, Bryan Norcross and I were among the meteorologists asked by TWC to participate in a Q&A (a blog roundtable of sorts) about forecasting and communication challenges with Hurricane Isaac. Here are my answers.


Maybe they should have invited someone who fought him for 48 plus Hours.

I do know a guy though.


ppppfth.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hey Levi, This is coming to get you. stay safe mate

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Dee "Mojo" dint phase Issac at'tall.

: ]
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Whatever happened to Norm!

http://dailyhowler.blogspot.com/2012/05/missing-p erson-watch-whatever-happened.html


I saw him at a AA meeting in NOLA last week,...
,he is thinner though.


: )
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
There is no NORM anymore due to well, u know.


: )



Whatever happened to Norm!

http://dailyhowler.blogspot.com/2012/05/missing-p erson-watch-whatever-happened.html
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Crapemyrtels drooping from lack of rain up on the medians of neighborhoods and in parking lots of stores. Just ticks me off. Supposed to rain during the summer months especially when you have a friggin GOM in your backyard.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Levi. How many more named storms you see forming the rest of season?


I could see 1 or 2 more left in the tank for October. We've been without the support of the MJO for nearly a month now, but it is forecasted to return during the first half of October, which could generate some activity in the late-season climatological regions of the Caribbean, Bahamas, and Gulf of Mexico.
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I agree Stormpetrol the yellow circle should be in the Central Caribbean.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather