Super Typhoon Jelawat headed towards Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:23 PM GMT on September 26, 2012

Super Typhoon Jelawat completed an eyewall replacement cycle over the past 24 hours, resulting in a slight weakening of the storm below Category 5 strength. Jelawat is now a Category 4 super typhoon with 155 mph winds. Fortunately, Jelawat is located well east of the Philippine Islands, and the storm is not expected to hit land while it is at major typhoon strength. Wind shear remains a light 5 - 10 knots over Jelawat, and the typhoon is over very warm ocean waters of 29°C that extend to great depth, so it is possible that Jelawat could regain Category 5 status later today. Satellite loops show an impressive, well-organized typhoon with a 25 mile-wide eye, and a large, symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops.

The models are fairly unified on the track of Jelawat. The typhoon is expected to move northwest, roughly parallel to the Philippines, then turn to the north and north-northeast a few hundred miles east of Taiwan. Jelawat will likely pass close to Okinawa, Japan as a Category 2 typhoon on Friday near 20 UTC, and could hit the main island of Honshu in Japan as a tropical storm over the weekend. Wind shear will begin increasing over Jelawat beginning on Thursday, which should cause a steady weakening of the storm.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Jelawat taken at 7:12 am EDT Tuesday September 26, 2012. A solid ring of echoes surrounds the calm eye. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Storm Miriam steadily weakening
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Miriam is being attacked by high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, and satellite imagery shows the storm is falling apart. High wind shear in excess of 30 knots will attack Miriam by Thursday, and Miriam should dissipate off the coast of Baja by Friday. Miriam's moisture is expected to stay out to sea.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Nadine taken at 11:15 am EDT Monday September 25, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 45 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Except for Nadine, the Atlantic is quiet
Never-say-die Tropical Storm Nadine continues to wander in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far from any land areas. Nadine may circle back to bother the Azores Islands on Monday, according to the latest run of the GFS model--though the model shows Nadine stopping short of a direct hit on the islands. Nadine has already been around as a named storm for thirteen days, and will still probably be around a week from now. According to the Tropical Cyclone FAQ, the average Atlantic named storm lasts about six days, and the all-time longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone lasted 27.75 days.

A small area of heavy thunderstorms has developed about 700 miles east-northeast of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is under a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear, is struggling with dry air, and none of the reliable computer models are predicting development. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 39 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 — Blog Index

I agree Stormpetrol the yellow circle should be in the Central Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
People are strange when you're a stranger
Faces look ugly when you're alone
Women seem wicked when you're unwanted
Streets are uneven when you're down

When you're strange
Faces come out of the rain
When you're strange
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
In fact everything has gone strange. Here in SE TX we're going weeks without a drop of rain, totally off from past weather. I've never seen where we go weeks and weeks without measurable rain along the gulf coast, so we're definitely in climate change mode. I wont get into whether it's manmade and all that stuff, but it's changed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tornado wise also a strange year.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Here's the more telling and significant stat:

Only one storm all season has acquired hurricane intensity while south of 25N. The majority of this season's ACE has been generated north of 30N and east of 50W.That is very offset from the norm, and is consistent with a typical El Nino season.



Another strange year
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Levi. How many more named storms you see forming the rest of season?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
There is no NORM anymore due to well, u know.


: )

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting guygee:
Here is a map showing the tracks of the 2012 Atlantic named storms to date:



Keep in mind that 25N is about the latitude of Key Largo, FL.
I do not see that an unusually significant number of storms have formed above 25N as compared to the recent active period of storm formation in the Atlantic that began in the 1990's. Can you provide more information to back up this assertion?

It is true that several of this year's storms tended to strengthen after they got north of 25N, the NHC commented on that. But as for storm formation, I cannot see how you can say Bastardi is correct.


Here's the more telling and significant stat:

Only one storm all season has acquired hurricane intensity while south of 25N. The majority of this season's ACE has been generated north of 30N and east of 50W.That is very offset from the norm, and is consistent with a typical El Nino season.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Watch what you ask for..you may not like it.

For when the water comes,there's no place to go sometimes.

Leave,

Leave,

Leave.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Published on Aug 30, 2012 by CNN

The levee overtopped in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, leaving many stranded and awaiting rescue. Brian Todd reports.

For more CNN videos, check out our YouTube channel at http://www.youtube.com/cnn

Or visit our site at http://www.cnn.com/video/


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Published on Sep 3, 2012 by patrap

Hurricane Issac Impacting NOLA early after Dark Tuesday the 28th of August 2012

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting sar2401:

Hello, Pat, good to see you around again. Has the damage been fixed at your place? I hope you're back home again. We'll see if Joe picks up on your "forecast". :)


Its in works,,but the Landlord is a Moran.

That's not misspelled, he dosent rate 2 "O's". : )

Thanx for asking,,,it means a lot.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
14N/75W looks interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What if a rainstorm dropped all of its water in a single giant drop?




http://what-if.xkcd.com/12/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Sneaux in Se Louisiana...Nov 20?

I tweeted dat to JB.

Jus cus I can.

Fresca anyone ?

Hello, Pat, good to see you around again. Has the damage been fixed at your place? I hope you're back home again. We'll see if Joe picks up on your "forecast". :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:
I'm not a fan of his but 2 things he has been right about this summer - storms forming north of 25 or west of 80 and a big slowdown after Sept 5th.
Here is a map showing the tracks of the 2012 Atlantic named storms to date:



Keep in mind that 25N is about the latitude of Key Largo, FL.
I do not see that an unusually significant number of storms have formed above 25N as compared to the recent active period of storm formation in the Atlantic that began in the 1990's. Can you provide more information to back up this assertion?

It is true that several of this year's storms tended to strengthen after they got north of 25N, the NHC commented on that. But as for storm formation, I cannot see how you can say Bastardi is correct.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
It almost looks like that 10% AOI is moving WNW towards Nadine. She seems to suck things up like a vacuum cleaner while sitting out there spinning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Congrats Nadine. Youve lived for 2 weeks now.

She also has now passed Leslie, I think, in terms of ACE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Congrats Nadine. Youve lived for 2 weeks now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Sneaux in Se Louisiana...Nov 20?

I tweeted dat to JB.

Jus cus I can.

Fresca anyone.
Yes please, ice cold with a large side of gulf pinks.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
...NADINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
11:00 AM AST Wed Sep 26
Location: 30.6°N 30.3°W
Moving: S at 5 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

...MIRIAM TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 26
Location: 20.0°N 115.7°W
Moving: NNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nadine up to 50 mph.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Sneaux in Se Louisiana...Nov 20?

I tweeted dat to JB.

Jus cus I can.

Fresca anyone ?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:

Really, I'm not a prude, but this kind of analogy is not appropriate for a G rated forum.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:

Can you remove your disgusting comment please. You have a sick mind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
I must say Jelawat looks like...
Seriously, dude?

Rules of the Road: "Avoid topics that would be considered adults only. Many children come to this site looking for information about the weather."
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Wunderwood:
Joe Bastardi tweeted to watch the GOM and Caribbean next weak.

Joe has been tweeting this type of thing since Isaac. Even a blind squirrel eventually finds a nut. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Well I'll leave you all with this and I'm gone "The more recent 1995-2011 average of 15 named storms 8 hurricanes and 4 majors".This is from TWC themselves in their more recent update about the seasonal activity :).So for all you doubters that came after me this morning I'm backing up the facts.Good day to you Doc and fellow bloggers :).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Joe Bastardi tweeted to watch the GOM and Caribbean next weak.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC's 26Sept.12pm ATCF data for TropicalStormNadine
26Sept.12am: TS.Nadine had been headed 192.1°SSWest@4.7mph(7.6km/h)
26Sept.06am: TS.Nadine had been headed 196.0°SSWest@3.6mph(5.8km/h)
26Sept.12pm: TS.Nadine had been headed 163.9°SSEast @ 3.6mph(5.8km/h)

HOR-Faial :: LIS-Lisbon :: FNC-Madeira :: RBA-Rabat :: VDE-ElHierro

The 4 kinked lines traces Nadine's path on its 11th thru 14th days after becoming a NamedStorm
The southernmost dot on the 2 connected straight lines is TS.Nadine's most recent position

Copy&paste hor,lis,fnc,rba,vde, 32.5n26.8w- 31.8n26.7w- 30.8n26.5w- 30.4n26.0w- 30.4n25.8w, 30.4n25.8w- 30.4n25.6w- 30.5n25.4w- 30.9n25.8w- 31.1n26.1w, 31.1n26.1w- 31.3n26.6w- 31.6n27.5w- 31.8n28.1w- 32.2n28.7w, 32.2n28.7w- 32.2n29.4w- 31.9n29.9w- 31.8n30.2w- 31.4n30.3w, 31.4n30.3w-31.1n30.4w, 31.1n30.4w-30.8n30.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If you include when it was extratropical, the San Ciriaco hurricane in 1899 was active for 33 days. Nadine still has some way to go!

Link

Do feel sorry for Nadine though, pretty much every other storm this Atlantic season has had another storm for company at some point in it's lifetime.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks doc.If shear levels don't calm down soon then the season might be shut down for business.The usual "breeding grounds" where the storms form this time of year have high shear values now.But if a season like 2009 can produce a storm in November then I guess this one can try to.I think around the 15 of next month is when we should start to watch out for development in the caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New invest 94E in EPAC.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209261418
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012092612, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942012
EP, 94, 2012092612, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1030W, 25, 0, DB
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Thank you Dr. Masters, Nadine won't go away and Jelawat I guess could restrengthen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr Masters, in your opinion, which Cat 5 is more impressive, Jelawat or Sanba?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For Texas Residents:

Widespread rainfall event increasingly likely this weekend


Ingredients continue to come together for a period of wet weather from Friday-Sunday. Moisture is returning to SE TX this morning as noted by the isolated inland moving showers on radar over the coastal waters into the coastal and inland first tier counties. These showers appear to be in response to a sliver of higher moisture being transported northward on increased southerly flow of the past 48 hours. With a little heating this morning expected a continuation of these showers today.


Of more importance is the late week period into the weekend as parameters are coming together to produce a potential widespread rainfall event. Low pressure formation ahead of a deepening SW US trough will help transports low level tropical moisture over the southern Gulf of Mexico northward into the region starting Thursday. May see slightly better rain chances on Thursday than currently being indicated, but the better chances should hold off until Friday when the tropical moisture reaches the area. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms on Friday pulling northward off the western Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, mid and high level moisture is already spreading NE across MX into TX from EPAC tropical system Miriam. This moisture along with the increasing Gulf moisture will become entrained in the slow moving trough producing widespread rainfall from SW TX into E TX over the weekend.



Surface frontal boundary currently over NW TX will only slowly drag SE over the next 2 days and gradually enter the area early Saturday…more importantly this boundary adds a focus for deep convection that was largely absent yesterday in the model guidance. This change does raise some concern for more significant rainfall over the weekend as the slow moving trough, a slow moving surface boundary, saturated air column, and extremely high moisture levels (PWS 2.2-2.4 inches) all combine to produce some very heavy rainfall. Still not overly confident on where the heavy rains will set up although the southern half of TX appears to be in the best location south of the 250mb jet streak and near/south of the surface boundary. The “tropical like” air column will support some very heavy rainfall rates in a short period of time and this will need to be watched especially if any cell training or slow storm motions are noted. Would not at all be surprised to see some 2-3 inch per hour rainfall rates with this set up. Models are really keying in on Saturday afternoon-Sunday morning as the best time for organized heavy rainfall spreading from SW to NE across the region.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 39 - 1

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 — Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather