Jelawat hits Okinawa; TS Norman feeds heavy rains in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2012

Typhoon Jelawat slammed into Okinawa Saturday morning as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. The small 7-mile diameter eye tracked just west of the island from southwest to northeast, bringing the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant eyewall to much of Okinawa. Kadena Air Base recorded sustained 10-minute average winds of 85 mph at the peak of the storm, with a top wind gust of 115 mph. The Kadena Facebook page has some impressive videos and photos of the damage, which included flipped cars, downed trees, and damage to signs and buildings. Satellite loops and radar loops show that Jelawat has weakened considerably. Wind shear is up to a very high 40 knots, and the storm is over much cooler waters. Jelawat is likely to be a tropical storm at landfall Sunday on the main island of Honshu in Japan.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Okinawa at 12:30 am local time on September 29, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Video 1. Typhoon Jelawat in Okinawa as filmed by storm chaser James Reynolds.

Nadine still a hurricane
Tenacious Hurricane Nadine has entered its 17th day of life, and continues to mill about a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next five days. The latest model runs show Nadine becoming tangled up with an upper level low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday as the storm comes close to the Azores Islands. This should cause Nadine to become an extratropical cyclone again. Nadine is already in fourth place for longest-lived named tropical storm since 1950:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 9:12 am EDT Saturday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Norman dying; heavy rains continue over Texas
Tropical Depression Norman has been moving slowly up the Gulf of California near the tip of Baja, Mexico since it formed Friday afternoon, but has been torn apart by high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The storm will likely be declared dead later today. Moisture from Norman fed an extratropical storm over Texas, and contributed to heavy rains in West Texas that caused flooding and water rescues on Friday. Midland-Odessa, Texas, picked up 4.66” of rain on Friday, making it the wettest September day on record and 3rd wettest day in city history (wettest day in city history: August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.)


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Norman in the Gulf of California at 4:30 pm EDT Friday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Norman had top winds of 40 mph, and was spreading a large stream of moisture northeastward into Mexico and Texas. The remains of Hurricane Miriam are at the left of the image, along with a curious little vortex just north of Miriam's remains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall in West Texas due to the moisture associated with Tropical Storm Norman. Heavy rains in excess of 4" fell near Midland/Odessa, Big Spring, and San Angelo.


Figure 5. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, October 4, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman will bring heavy rains to much of the South. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
FORMED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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OK, we got a burning question going on in chat.

When did the most tropical cyclones occur at the same time around the globe and how many?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Chris was a nice hurricane. I believe it was stronger than 65 knots.


If Nadine is 80kts then Chris was stronger than 65kts, also I think Nadine could strengthen a little more.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


M7.1 - 9km WNW of Isnos, Colombia
2012-09-30 16:31:34 UTC


Event Time

2012-09-30 16:31:34 UTC
2012-09-30 11:31:34 UTC-05:00 at epicenter
2012-09-30 12:31:34 UTC-04:00 system time
Location

1.969°N 76.315°W depth=150.4km (93.5mi)

Nearby Cities

9km (6mi) WNW of Isnos, Colombia
32km (20mi) WNW of Pitalito, Colombia
61km (38mi) SSE of Popayan, Colombia
66km (41mi) SW of La Plata, Colombia
345km (214mi) NE of Quito, Ecuador
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Chris was a nice hurricane. I believe it was stronger than 65 knots.

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Nadine has survived 18 days, and is forecasted to persist for another 5 days... Putting her at a final total of 23 days alive as a named storm, and a total of 92 Advisories.


i figure the last advi. will be 93
never ending peak of the season duration storm
one for the books for lenght if nothing else
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Chris was something special for sure. The time of the year + that latitude.

Chris sure was, a good hurricane.

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Nadine has survived 18 days, and is forecasted to persist for another 5 days... Putting her at a final total of 23 days alive as a named storm, and a total of 92 Advisories.

Which would put Nadine ahead of Kyle and the season possibly over 100 for ACE.
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Nadine has survived 18 days, and is forecasted to persist for another 5 days... Putting her at a final total of 23 days alive as a named storm, and a total of 92 Advisories.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I think someone forgot about Hurricane Chris earlier this year.


Chris was something special for sure. The time of the year + that latitude.
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Quoting winter123:
What is the record for furthest-north Atlantic Hurricane? Nadine is at 37N.

What's the record for strongest Atlantic Hurricane at 37+ north? Nadine is at 90mph.


I think someone forgot about Hurricane Chris earlier this year.
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What is the record for furthest-north Atlantic Hurricane? Nadine is at 37N.

What's the record for strongest Atlantic Hurricane at 37+ north? Nadine is at 90mph.

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Beautiful !!!!!!! 2.97" in East End since 6 am.


Tks ;-) just under 2" in my area
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Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
A shot I took a couple of days ago in Grand Cayman. Looks like the stormy weather in the NW carib. is going to stick around for a while yet!

a href="" target="_blank">
Beautiful !!!!!!! 2.97" in East End since 6 am.
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A shot I took a couple of days ago in Grand Cayman. Looks like the stormy weather in the NW carib. is going to stick around for a while yet!

a href="" target="_blank">
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390. Skyepony (Mod)
TOKYO (AP) — A powerful typhoon is heading to Tokyo after injuring dozens of people, causing blackouts and paralyzing traffic in southern Japan.

Japan's Meteorological Agency says Typhoon Jelawat is expected to hit the Tokyo region Sunday evening. It warns of torrential rain and sudden wind gusts, urging Tokyo residents to stay indoors.

At noon Sunday, the storm was packing winds of up to 90 miles per hour.

The typhoon left more than 50 people with minor injuries on the southern island of Okinawa on Saturday. Thousands of homes were without electricity.

Dozens of trains were suspended Sunday in coastal areas around Tokyo, and some 300 domestic flights were to be grounded throughout the day.

Up to 20 inches of rain is expected in central Japan through Monday
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That a big one!!
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Quoting Autistic2:
Is Levi hibernating?

Nadine is entering her 3rd week and no update?

Grothar is writing about 800 year old storms and still no Levi?


He posted on Facebook that school has him busy and he'll try to get an update out when he can.
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA THROUGH SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301533Z - 301730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES FROM SERN LA
THROUGH SRN MS THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...BUT ANY WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS AND ORGANIZATION.

DISCUSSION...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WCNTRL LA
THROUGH SRN MS WHILE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW
THROUGH SWRN LA. RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS HAS
SPREAD INLAND THROUGH WARM SECTOR...BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST
DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. PARTIAL
CLEARING EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SPREADING INTO SERN LA...AND
THIS SHOULD HELP BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITIES MIGHT OCCUR. LARGER 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS
SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE
LIMITED. HOWEVER...A SLY LLJ WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE WARM
SECTOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH. WHILE
SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 35 KT THIS
AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST ALONG LLJ AXIS TO
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT UPDRAFT ROTATION AS WELL AS
LEWP/BOWING SEGMENTS. ANY TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN
SRN MS WHERE STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO INTERACT WITH THE WARM
FRONT.

..DIAL/HART.. 09/30/2012


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30059225 31749094 31638910 30478909 29589016 30059225
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GFS at 48 hours........
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Quoting Autistic2:
Is Levi hibernating?

Nadine is entering her 3rd week and no update?

Grothar is writing about 800 year old storms and still no Levi?



I am waiting for Levi to make a Tidbit about what he sees with the pattern that would allow for one or two more named storms for the rest of the Atlantic season.
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Is Levi hibernating?

Nadine is entering her 3rd week and no update?

Grothar is writing about 800 year old storms and still no Levi?

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hot and sunny here today and humidity is getting higher...
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
East End is just shy of 3" since 6 am.


LUCKY!! Even Cayman is getting decent rain. We are only getting little short showers , which is better than nothing though.
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New Orleans
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI





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Who called that the lakes would rebound in warmness? This guy. Bring the LES!!



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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
East End is just shy of 3" since 6 am.


Looks like a soaker today.
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Quoting WoodyFL:
gro just did a blog that's real funny and most of you all are in it. LMAO.



Did he type it or is it in Cuneiform ?

: )

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It has been so hot here in Barbados. We really need some rain!! not storm.
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Quoting Grothar:
Looks like an upper level low is forming before western Cuba. Good spin to it.



m Just, another "blob" like yesterday's blob, that soaked ,Cayman and Haiti...!!!
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Quoting watercayman:
That NW Carib blob is causing relatively strong rains here in Cayman. But, they are consistent, lasting all night so far, which is really unusual here. Some flooding already.

At least its cooling the air and ocean around us down a fraction.
East End is just shy of 3" since 6 am.
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gro just did a blog that's real funny and most of you all are in it. LMAO.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Generally you want to be north of the 540 line. If you're from Maine as your handle suggests you'd be getting snow if that happened, as would all of New England. That's just one run though, no other runs have shown anything as extreme as that.

PLEASE!!!! that would be awesome!!!!!!!!!!! I am on the coast though so an onshore wind would ruin my chances. Would that happen?
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18 day old Nadine still the talk of the Atlantic. Wave in the MDR seems too high to reach the Caribbean. Shear seems to be a major issue.

October is about to come around the corner. Ho hum.

It still looks dead, Jim.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
A tragedy in Okinawa caught in video by chaser James Reynolds. Is a crude thing to watch.

Link


What the heck was that guy thinking, I feel very sorry for his family. R.I.P
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) continues to rise quickly and is now up to 21.0625 units. This is higher than all but one of last year's storms (Katia, 24.8 units) and it brings this season's total up to 94.5 units.


The Atlantic now is ahead of the expectations by CSU & company that had ACE between 70-90 units.
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Nadine's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) continues to rise quickly and is now up to 21.0625 units. This is higher than all but one of last year's storms (Katia, 24.8 units) and it brings this season's total up to 94.5 units.
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...LONG-LASTING NADINE EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ONCE AGAIN...
11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 30
Location: 37.1%uFFFDN 38.6%uFFFDW
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 979 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 37.1N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 37.3N 39.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 36.6N 39.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 35.9N 39.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 35.6N 38.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 36.3N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 40.8N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 48.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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90 mph. Go Nadine! I really hope she takes Kyle's record. She deserves it!
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A tragedy in Okinawa caught in video by chaser James Reynolds. Is a crude thing to watch.

Link
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That NW Carib blob is causing relatively strong rains here in Cayman. But, they are consistent, lasting all night so far, which is really unusual here. Some flooding already.

At least its cooling the air and ocean around us down a fraction.
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Jelawat is rapidly becoming extratropical over Japan. It's next advisory should be it's last, closing the book on a storm whose ACE is about half of what the entire Atlantic has produced this year, and well over half of the East Pacific.

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357. etxwx
Okay all you snow lovers, time to follow the advice of Johnny Horton and head "North to Alaska"...
First snow of season blankets Hillside in Anchorage, Alaska
By CASEY GROVE | Anchorage Daily News
Saturday, September 29, 2012
ANCHORAGE, Alaska — If Anchorage, Alaska's first snowfall Saturday seems a little early, that's because it was.

The average first snowfall in Anchorage isn't until Oct. 17, according to the National Weather Service. The earliest recorded snowfall in the city came Sept. 20, 1947.

The mixed rain and snow overnight turned fully to snow during the early morning hours Saturday, catching some off guard as it changed the look of the landscape.

"We saw it as we were going to bed last night, but I was surprised about how much had accumulated overnight," said Trevor Bird, a ski hill employee who lives on the Lower Hillside. "It's nice to get the early snow, but this is like, 'Oh great, it's coming.' "

Read more here: Link
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Introducing our next West Pacific typhoon, TD 20W:



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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather