Jelawat hits Okinawa; TS Norman feeds heavy rains in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2012

Typhoon Jelawat slammed into Okinawa Saturday morning as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. The small 7-mile diameter eye tracked just west of the island from southwest to northeast, bringing the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant eyewall to much of Okinawa. Kadena Air Base recorded sustained 10-minute average winds of 85 mph at the peak of the storm, with a top wind gust of 115 mph. The Kadena Facebook page has some impressive videos and photos of the damage, which included flipped cars, downed trees, and damage to signs and buildings. Satellite loops and radar loops show that Jelawat has weakened considerably. Wind shear is up to a very high 40 knots, and the storm is over much cooler waters. Jelawat is likely to be a tropical storm at landfall Sunday on the main island of Honshu in Japan.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Okinawa at 12:30 am local time on September 29, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Video 1. Typhoon Jelawat in Okinawa as filmed by storm chaser James Reynolds.

Nadine still a hurricane
Tenacious Hurricane Nadine has entered its 17th day of life, and continues to mill about a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next five days. The latest model runs show Nadine becoming tangled up with an upper level low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday as the storm comes close to the Azores Islands. This should cause Nadine to become an extratropical cyclone again. Nadine is already in fourth place for longest-lived named tropical storm since 1950:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 9:12 am EDT Saturday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Norman dying; heavy rains continue over Texas
Tropical Depression Norman has been moving slowly up the Gulf of California near the tip of Baja, Mexico since it formed Friday afternoon, but has been torn apart by high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The storm will likely be declared dead later today. Moisture from Norman fed an extratropical storm over Texas, and contributed to heavy rains in West Texas that caused flooding and water rescues on Friday. Midland-Odessa, Texas, picked up 4.66” of rain on Friday, making it the wettest September day on record and 3rd wettest day in city history (wettest day in city history: August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.)


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Norman in the Gulf of California at 4:30 pm EDT Friday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Norman had top winds of 40 mph, and was spreading a large stream of moisture northeastward into Mexico and Texas. The remains of Hurricane Miriam are at the left of the image, along with a curious little vortex just north of Miriam's remains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall in West Texas due to the moisture associated with Tropical Storm Norman. Heavy rains in excess of 4" fell near Midland/Odessa, Big Spring, and San Angelo.


Figure 5. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, October 4, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman will bring heavy rains to much of the South. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Nadine's looking good:



It's not impossible she gets to 100mph if she keeps it up.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I just realized I never got to make a Green Goblin joke out of Norman. Now I have to wait six more years to do it; it would be quite unprofessional to try it in my TCR for the system later this year.

sadface

I feel for you Kori.. wasted opportunities like that can haunt a person for hours if not days.. ;)
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Looks like an upper level low is forming before western Cuba. Good spin to it.



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Quoting PlazaRed:

Well its back to sunshine now in my area.
We had about 2 inches of rain in my town but about 20 miles to the south in Ronda they got about 5 inches.
40 miles to the east of me they got about 10 inches, half of which was said to have fallen in an hour.
2 major bridges were washed away, one on the coastal freeway. At least 7 people were reported killed, thousands of houses have been flooded and many remain uninhabitable, many cars were swept away.
The ground was so dry after about 18 months with little rain, that it soaked up a lot of the water in many areas, probably helping to keep damage lower than it would have otherwise have been. Today Sunday morning most of the rivers and streams in my area have almost no water in them again.
It would have been a lot worse if the ground had not been as dry as dust but the rainwater was just soaked up like it was falling on a sponge in most areas.
Southern Spain is not designed to cope with rain and when its heavy its really bad for some people.


Glad you are OK. Saw this on the BBC last night and some bloggers posted images. Looked pretty bad.
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I love accuweather Forecast for me they say High in the 70's and low in the 60's on oct 22!!:)
Link
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BORING!!!!!
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337 PlazaRed: So on the topic of the Southern Spanish floods which I just posted a couple of comments on.
I would like to say that in the areas affected which are mainly mountainous, they are dedicated to the cultivation of olives. The ground on these steep mountain and hill sides is ploughed relentlessly to combat weeds and grass growth.
Result. When it rains 10 inches in a day, gravity takes control of the waters rather than soil absorption which happens in the lower coastal areas and I am afraid that a vast amount of top soils will have been washed away.
This topsoil is permanently gone down the rivers and out to sea. It wont be replaced!
Just another nail in the coffin of desertification.In my opinion the ploughing of theses mountainous area to dust should be heavily discouraged as its bound to lead to many more problems of rainwater soil striping and erosion here.
I'll try and get some photos to upload over the next few days showing the damage and conditions of the hillside fields.


Archeologically, the reknowned "craggy hills of Greece" have been proven to be artificial: directly tied to soil erosion caused by slash&burn agricultural practices of several thousand years ago used to promote the growth of olive trees through suppression of their competitors.
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Good Sunday Morning!

A little shower during the night, and again this morning. Very nice and welcomed.
Thunder rolling around just west of here, and it looks to have gone away, until later.

Full of admiration for Nadine.
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Hurricane Isaac left behind sections of dead marsh and answers about out future

By Bob Marshall, The Times-Picayune
on September 30, 2012 at 3:10 AM


When local outdoors folk look back on the summer of 2012 they may well remember it as a season of questions. Such as "What happened to the speckled trout?" And "What happened to the teal?" And "How did a Category 1 storm spread so much damage?"

I found part of the answer last week when I spotted the bodies. They were laying along the shoulders and on the neutral ground of Highway 23 between Lake Hermitage and Port Sulphur. Some in starkly sad isolation, others twisted together where the storm's surge had left them, still others extending from 20-foot piles of debris being dropped into trucks by heavy equipment.

Two weeks earlier they had been residents of the southeast Louisiana marsh, full-grown clumps of spartina grass complete with a foot-thick supporting plug of delta mud, something that might have taken the river decades to lay down - when it could still reach its delta.

The nearest marsh from their final resting places was probably five miles away. So Isaac had ripped them from the skeletal remains of our once vibrant, growing delta, and dropped them when the Mississippi River levees blocked further transport. The line of death reached halfway up the tall mud walls along the river and were stacked four to six feet deep on the highway before the mechanical undertakers arrived to sanitize the scene.

That clean-up was urgently important, but it would have been helpful if locals living inside our new $14 billion storm surge levees had been required to view the scene before the job was done. Maybe then they would have found part of the answers to their growing list of questions about "what's happening?" with fishing and hunting, with home-flooding from even "minimal" hurricanes, and road inundations just from stiff southerly winds. The miles of marsh lying dead on the road would be a powerful reminder that the loss of wetlands - which is a big reason those levees are necessary - continues apace.

Hurricanes, of course, have long been a part of this ecosystem. Ecologists say in a healthy coastal delta the big storms play a role similar to wild fire in natural forests - cleaning out the old and sick and creating openings for the generation of new life. And on deltas connected to their life-giving rivers, the healing from storm scars begins with the next spring rise.

But this delta - which supports our homes, culture and livelihoods - has been sick and dying for decades, its lifeblood blocked by levees, its circulatory system destroyed by canals carved for oil, gas and shipping. It can't heal itself; wounds fester and grow, eventually becoming fatal.

The "coastal erosion" everyone has heard about isn't just a move northward from the Gulf of Mexico shoreline. It's also a simultaneous death from the inside out. Viewing year-to-year satellite images of areas outside our levees is like watching pixels being pulled from a digital photo, with tiny holes steadily growing into ever larger blank spaces. These open space fill with water, which gives even light breezes a longer fetch to build energy, which means waves landing against surviving shorelines arrive with greater force - which means our problem grows ever larger, faster.

That's one reason comparatively small storms like Isaac now do so much damage. As the large masses of marsh are rendered into progressively smaller fragments, they become easier victims for wind and wave energy.

Of course, there's another reason smaller storms are now causing more marsh destruction and consequent home and road flooding. It's the fact that shall not be named by our congressional delegation: global warming. The build-up of greenhouse gases mainly from fossil fuels is causing the sea to rise at an accelerated rate because water expands as it warms and because water that once was frozen on land as glaciers and ice fields is melting and flowing into the seas.

This isn't a theory. It's a fact recorded by measurements at tide stations over the last few decades. And the rate of sea level rise in southeast Louisiana is about four times the rate of the rest of the continent because we are sinking at the same time the Gulf is swelling.

The graphs on this page explain that. They are not computer models or projections. They are measurements of what has happened and continues to happen. You can see all these facts online here.

And part of what they tell us is that storm surges on the other side of our levees are becoming higher and more dangerous with each passing season, because even small storms have more water to push our way and much less marsh and swamp to diminish their speed and power.

Hunters, anglers and other who spend time on the other side of the levees are not surprised by any of this. They know the reality of the world on the wet side of those mud and concrete walls. But seeing sections of dead marsh lying along coastal roads after Isaac may be confirmation of their worst fears: the habitat base responsible for their pastimes may be losing its battle for survival.

Those bodies lying along Highway 23 were providing some answers and sending a message: Time is running out to save what we have left, and to prevent the Gulf from reaching those mud walls we think make us safe.

A final note

This is my last day as Outdoors Editor of The Times-Picayune. It has been a great joy and privilege to serve the readers of the metro area and work alongside some of the finest journalists in the nation.

I'll see you in the marsh.
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A CME impact is expected later today... they tend to be unpredictable so we'll see what happens.

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carib.is getting wet
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Two TCFA's out in the West Pacific. One for 94W:



And one for 95W:

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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

What color=snow? ME WANT SSSSSNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!

Generally you want to be north of the 540 line. If you're from Maine as your handle suggests you'd be getting snow if that happened, as would all of New England. That's just one run though, no other runs have shown anything as extreme as that.
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Published on Sep 29, 2012 by AssociatedPress

A tornado swept through a fair ground in a Spanish town, knocking down a Ferris wheel and injuring 35 people, while the death toll from flooding in the same southern part of the country rose to nine, authorities said Saturday. (Sept. 29)



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
So on the topic of the Southern Spanish floods which I just posted a couple of comments on.
I would like to say that in the areas affected which are mainly mountainous, they are dedicated to the cultivation of olives. The ground on these steep mountain and hill sides is ploughed relentlessly to combat weeds and grass growth.
Result. When it rains 10 inches in a day, gravity takes control of the waters rather than soil absorption which happens in the lower costal areas and I am afraid that a vast amount of top soils will have been washed away.
This topsoil is permanently gone down the rivers and out to sea. It wont be replaced!
Just another nail in the coffin of desertification.In my opinion the ploughing of theses mountainous area to dust should be heavily discouraged as its bound to lead to many more problems of rainwater soil striping and erosion here.
I'll try and get some photos to upload over the next few days showing the damage and conditions of the hillside fields.
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Heres a link to copy and paste from the BBC, about the floods in Southern Spain.

"At least 10 people have died after heavy rains triggered flash floods in southern Spain, officials have said."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19767627

Heres one of the lines from the article, it shows in a way how much natural disasters cost to the local poor people.

"Local people would be hit particularly hard, she suggested, because it was a poor part of Spain with unemployment of 30% and few people could afford insurance."

It leaves little to the imagination as to what would happen if a proper hurricane hit this area!
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This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Louisiana...south Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters. Today and tonight... Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through this evening. A few storms may briefly become strong to severe with damaging winds...and a brief isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. However...the main threat will be locally heavy rainfall and occasional lightning strikes. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through this evening. Persistent rainfall may total 2 to 3 inches with locally heavier amounts and flash flooding possible. A few areas that receive persistent or repeat heavy rainfall could experience urban flooding of streets and low lying...poorly drained areas...and elevated levels on drainage canals...bayous...small streams and creeks.
Several streams in St. Tammany Parish and Pearl River County have reached flood stage this morning from heavy rainfall Saturday evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect over all coastal waters and tidal lakes today and tonight for winds of 20 to 25 knots. Tides are expected to increase to one half to one foot above normal Today into early Monday due to strong south winds...particularly along south facing shores. Monday through Saturday... Small Craft Advisories will be in effect Monday for all coastal waters and tidal lakes for 20 to 25 knot winds.

Spotter information statement... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. Emergency managers are encouraged to monitor the weather for localized flood potential due to persistent rains and elevated tides.

There is an increased potential for local flooding in areas where water remains from Hurricane Isaac.
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Orleans Parish

Flash Flood Watch

Statement as of 4:40 AM CDT on September 30, 2012

... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi...
including the following areas... in southeast Louisiana...
Ascension... Assumption... East Baton Rouge... East Feliciana...
Iberville... Livingston... lower Jefferson... lower Lafourche...
lower Plaquemines... lower St. Bernard... lower Terrebonne...
northern Tangipahoa... Orleans... Pointe Coupee... southern
Tangipahoa... St. Charles... St. Helena... St. James... St. John
The Baptist... St. Tammany... upper Jefferson... upper
Lafourche... upper Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard... upper
Terrebonne... Washington... West Baton Rouge and West Feliciana.
In southern Mississippi... Amite... Hancock... Harrison...
Jackson... Pearl River... Pike... Walthall and Wilkinson.

* Through this evening

* a low pressure area over Texas will move east across south
Louisiana and south Mississippi today. Widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms are expected across the region producing
locally heavy rainfall.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible with
locally higher amounts... and could occur in the space of an hour
or two. While most areas received a half inch to one inch of
rain since Saturday morning... some areas received in excess of 2
inches of rain. Additional heavy rainfall on saturated soil may
lead to an increased risk of excessive runoff during periods of
heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
GFS shows a big trough for the east in 11-12 days:




What color=snow? ME WANT SSSSSNNNNNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Wow, didn't realize it was that bad. Anyone hear from PlazaRed. He is not far from that region.

Well its back to sunshine now in my area.
We had about 2 inches of rain in my town but about 20 miles to the south in Ronda they got about 5 inches.
40 miles to the east of me they got about 10 inches, half of which was said to have fallen in an hour.
2 major bridges were washed away, one on the coastal freeway. At least 7 people were reported killed, thousands of houses have been flooded and many remain uninhabitable, many cars were swept away.
The ground was so dry after about 18 months with little rain, that it soaked up a lot of the water in many areas, probably helping to keep damage lower than it would have otherwise have been. Today Sunday morning most of the rivers and streams in my area have almost no water in them again.
It would have been a lot worse if the ground had not been as dry as dust but the rainwater was just soaked up like it was falling on a sponge in most areas.
Southern Spain is not designed to cope with rain and when its heavy its really bad for some people.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I think Nadine wants to still do more strengthening, and I am slowly losing my mind with this storm.

...NADINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 30
Location: 36.6%uFFFDN 37.8%uFFFDW
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 979 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

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327. Skyepony (Mod)
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Blog for anyone passing by. This was one of the more detailed discussions I've done on Nadine in awhile. Track is a bit hard to delineate for the next two days, insofar as the cyclonic loop is concerned.
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Quoting listenerVT:
Nadine is so impressive. still going strong! Each time I log in and see she's still at it, it makes me smile. The little hurricane that could.

Which other hurricanes have made a figure-8 path, as Nadine seems about to do?

Gordon '94? See track while it was offshore of the SE US...
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Link...

Even the 850 mb CIMSS vorticity shows no signs of a low-level low pressure field with the blob. All the vorticity is with the tropical wave in the W Caribbean while the blob itself has blue-shaded "anti-vorticity"
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


This is true...


That blob ain't going to do anything until there is a surface feature. I was looking at GFS and didn't see any model support...are any of the other models showing development here?


Nope.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Surprising in a sense of a few days ago, not yesterday. :P

A few days ago with her ugly structure I never though she would reach cane strength again and she ended up surpassing her first peak intensity. Really tenacious storm.


This is true...

Quoting KoritheMan:
Cangialosi is apparently not impressed:


000
ABNT20 KNHC 300534
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 605 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

That blob ain't going to do anything until there is a surface feature. I was looking at GFS and didn't see any model support...are any of the other models showing development here?
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Cangialosi is apparently not impressed:


000
ABNT20 KNHC 300534
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 605 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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320. JLPR2
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Nope...I predicted her to be 85 mph tonight and 90 mph tomorrow morning...in a blog post I made about 11 hours ago. I explain the very favorable upper winds that are allowing this...


Surprising in a sense of a few days ago, not yesterday. :P

A few days ago with her ugly structure I never though she would reach cane strength again and she ended up surpassing her first peak intensity. Really tenacious storm.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Ok...so far here is what I think on the Cuba (or central Caribbean) blob. As I said in comment 315...the blob is driven primarily by upper winds rather than a surface low pressure feature...but that is not to say that a surface feature can't develop here. I am not getting "excited" about tropical development here until a surface feature gets going. If a surface feature were to form here in the next hours...it would first go north around the Atlantic low-level ridge and ahead of the southern US frontal cyclone. Then it would go more NE in the open Atlantic parallel to the east US shore as it gets caught into the frontal zone of the frontal cyclone...


I agree.
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Nadine is so impressive. still going strong! Each time I log in and see she's still at it, it makes me smile. The little hurricane that could.

Which other hurricanes have made a figure-8 path, as Nadine seems about to do?
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Ok...so far here is what I think on the Cuba (or central Caribbean) blob. As I said in comment 315...the blob is driven primarily by upper winds rather than a surface low pressure feature...but that is not to say that a surface feature can't develop here. I am not getting "excited" about tropical development here until a surface feature gets going. If a surface feature were to form here in the next hours...it would first go north around the Atlantic low-level ridge and ahead of the southern US frontal cyclone. Then it would go more NE in the open Atlantic parallel to the east US shore as it gets caught into the frontal zone of the frontal cyclone...
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2012 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 36:00:28 N Lon : 37:34:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 980.3mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.5 4.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 41 km

Center Temp : +9.6C Cloud Region Temp : -49.5C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 77km
- Environmental MSLP : 1020mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 57.4 degrees

************************************************* ***
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Quoting 7544:


agree but where will that cuba blob be heading any idea tia

Something I am working on now...haven't figured it out yet.

So far...I see the blob has been more driven by upper winds than a surface feature. W Caribbean upper trough has amplified into an upper vortex...and like any typical mid-latitude upper trough...their is upper divergence on its east side. It looks to me this blob got its start in such divergence. But what's interesting is an upper ridge has amplified to the east of our upper trough. With the blob being increasingly under that upper ridge...the upper winds are more favorable....
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314. 7544
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Thx...we all do good work here...we learn from each other...


agree but where will that cuba blob be heading any idea tia
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I've been following your posts for awhile now. You've done a superb job on Nadine. Just wanted to say, keep up the good work!

Thx...we all do good work here...we learn from each other. For example I didn't notice the Gulf system coming until you mentioned it to me a few days ago. Since then...I mentioned it in my intro statements on the posts...
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yes yes... XD



Bummer, it's in the wrong place and at the wrong everything. :\
Not for nothing but I saw it first , read # 206, Huracan taino
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Nope...I predicted her to be 85 mph tonight and 90 mph tomorrow morning...in a blog post I made about 11 hours ago. I explain the very favorable upper winds that are allowing this...


I've been following your posts for awhile now. You've done a superb job on Nadine. Just wanted to say, keep up the good work!
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Quoting JLPR2:
So am I the only one impressed that Nadine topped her previous peak of 80mph? XD

11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 29
Location: 35.6°N 37.5°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph


Nope...I predicted her to be 85 mph tonight and 90 mph tomorrow morning...in a blog post I made about 11 hours ago. I explain the very favorable upper winds that are allowing this...
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309. 7544
Quoting Grothar:


this should win the best looking blob of the season so far award imo but it really is lol
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308. 7544
Quoting Grothar:


Please don't confuse my blobs with Geoffrey's. :) Yes, they expect a heavy flow of moisture coming up from the South. I don't think they were aware the blob was going to get that strong looking, but it may not last. Just very impressive amount of convection to flare up so suddenly.


lol thanks tho it has been there scince yesterday morning likes the night life see if it could do better before heading up ! maybe it could find a sweet spot in the bahmmas if its heading that way wnw maybe
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I just realized I never got to make a Green Goblin joke out of Norman. Now I have to wait six more years to do it; it would be quite unprofessional to try it in my TCR for the system later this year.

sadface
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306. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


I saw it first.


Yes yes... XD

Quoting Skyepony:
Overall the Convergence aloft has lightened over the basin..but still present.





Haiti is probability the only spot in the whole Caribbean that wouldn't happily host it.




Bummer, it's in the wrong place and at the wrong everything. :\
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Quoting 7544:


hi everyone is this dico due from grother blob alert or somthing else tia


Please don't confuse my blobs with Geoffrey's. :) Yes, they expect a heavy flow of moisture coming up from the South. I don't think they were aware the blob was going to get that strong looking, but it may not last. Just very impressive amount of convection to flare up so suddenly.
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Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather