Jelawat hits Okinawa; TS Norman feeds heavy rains in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2012

Typhoon Jelawat slammed into Okinawa Saturday morning as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. The small 7-mile diameter eye tracked just west of the island from southwest to northeast, bringing the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant eyewall to much of Okinawa. Kadena Air Base recorded sustained 10-minute average winds of 85 mph at the peak of the storm, with a top wind gust of 115 mph. The Kadena Facebook page has some impressive videos and photos of the damage, which included flipped cars, downed trees, and damage to signs and buildings. Satellite loops and radar loops show that Jelawat has weakened considerably. Wind shear is up to a very high 40 knots, and the storm is over much cooler waters. Jelawat is likely to be a tropical storm at landfall Sunday on the main island of Honshu in Japan.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Okinawa at 12:30 am local time on September 29, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Video 1. Typhoon Jelawat in Okinawa as filmed by storm chaser James Reynolds.

Nadine still a hurricane
Tenacious Hurricane Nadine has entered its 17th day of life, and continues to mill about a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next five days. The latest model runs show Nadine becoming tangled up with an upper level low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday as the storm comes close to the Azores Islands. This should cause Nadine to become an extratropical cyclone again. Nadine is already in fourth place for longest-lived named tropical storm since 1950:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 9:12 am EDT Saturday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Norman dying; heavy rains continue over Texas
Tropical Depression Norman has been moving slowly up the Gulf of California near the tip of Baja, Mexico since it formed Friday afternoon, but has been torn apart by high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The storm will likely be declared dead later today. Moisture from Norman fed an extratropical storm over Texas, and contributed to heavy rains in West Texas that caused flooding and water rescues on Friday. Midland-Odessa, Texas, picked up 4.66” of rain on Friday, making it the wettest September day on record and 3rd wettest day in city history (wettest day in city history: August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.)


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Norman in the Gulf of California at 4:30 pm EDT Friday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Norman had top winds of 40 mph, and was spreading a large stream of moisture northeastward into Mexico and Texas. The remains of Hurricane Miriam are at the left of the image, along with a curious little vortex just north of Miriam's remains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall in West Texas due to the moisture associated with Tropical Storm Norman. Heavy rains in excess of 4" fell near Midland/Odessa, Big Spring, and San Angelo.


Figure 5. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, October 4, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman will bring heavy rains to much of the South. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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TCFA for 94W.

WTPN21 PGTW 300200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2N 150.7E TO 19.3N 147.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 300130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 150.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 111.7E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW VORTEX HAS
EMERGED AND BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE CONSIDERABLY DEEPENED
AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS
PROGRESSION IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INCLUDING A 302314Z AMSU-B PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MARGINAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.
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I called it first that Nadine would strengthen at 11pm.
...STUBBORN NADINE NOT ONLY SURVIVES BUT STRENGTHENS...
11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 29
Location: 35.6°N 37.5°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
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Quoting Grothar:


The ones we lost were the old cocoanut trees that used to be in the millions down here. Now, you only see a handful. They were lost in the blight in the 70's and 80's.
"Lethal Yellowing Disease". From what I have been able to find out, there is no telling when it will sweep through again.

Plan 9 from outer space, LOL.

Everyone have a good night now.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 70
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

...STUBBORN NADINE NOT ONLY SURVIVES BUT STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.6N 37.5W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
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Quoting guygee:
Derechos are very nasty because they come so fast, sometime without warning, and they come in the heat of the summer when all of the trees are in full leaf. So many very large trees come down, or huge tree limbs are blown off and come crashing down on everything.

I know the feeling washingtonian, although I was still pretty young I experienced one of those things on the 4th of July, at home with a lot of my aunt and uncles and cousins over for the holiday. We had no idea what was coming except for the dark clouds on the horizon. NOAA still keeps a little page on it: "The Ohio Fireworks Derecho". We just called it the Fourth of July Storm for many years after and everyone knew what you meant.

I am afraid with the AGW those nasties might be coming more frequently in the future, with all of the extra energy from more heating.
I remember the weather that was in place that day.It felt like if you went outside you were suffocated with a blanket.The high that day was 104 officially at Reagan National airport.Humidity didn't help much either with due points in the 70's.Very nasty day you couldn't even enjoy outside if you wanted.So when that storm came it had abundant energy to tap into and boy did it put on a show.We not only had strong winds but frequent lightning as well.I remember seeing the radar pics people posted as the line was getting closer.That night is stuck with me like glue on paper.A 74mph wind was recorder at RNA some places had winds as high as 80 mph plus .
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
250. etxwx
Bad situation in Spain...
Tornado and Flooding Pound Southern Spain
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: September 29, 2012

BARCELONA, Spain (AP) — A tornado swept through a fairground in a Spanish town, knocking down a Ferris wheel and injuring 35 workers, while the death toll from flooding in the same southern region of the country rose to 10, the authorities said Saturday.

The Friday tornado damaged several rides and cut electricity in the temporary fair set up in the main square of Gandia, according to its town hall Web site. The report said 15 of the injured were seriously hurt.

More here.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I still can't forgive/forget what happened on 6/29/12..A lot of people in the D.C area had that "why us?" type mentality.I personally don't want to experience it again.Then when the Derecho passed our area and went out into the ocean it fizzled out like a lil b___.You would think with a storm rolling through like that we would have cool temps afterwards.But we didn't.It went right back into the upper 90's with high dew points and humidity.... The winter of 09-10 is snow lovers paradise :).This winter was a no show.
Derechos are very nasty because they come so fast, sometime without warning, and they come in the heat of the summer when all of the trees are in full leaf. So many very large trees come down, or huge tree limbs are blown off and come crashing down on everything.

I know the feeling washingtonian, although I was still pretty young I experienced one of those things on the 4th of July, at home with a lot of my aunt and uncles and cousins over for the holiday. We had no idea what was coming except for the dark clouds on the horizon. NOAA still keeps a little page on it: "The Ohio Fireworks Derecho". We just called it the Fourth of July Storm for many years after and everyone knew what you meant.

I am afraid with the AGW those nasties might be coming more frequently in the future, with all of the extra energy from more heating.
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248. etxwx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You should have known something was up when the first 8 plans failed. Plan 9 must have been a Hail Marry plan. .... Run as far as you can and then jump up into the air.


My favorite comment in the reviews for Plan 9 on IMDB is this: "For anyone that wants to make movies, Plan 9 is a must see. Not for it's lush style, great dialogue, fabulous production design, nor for the compelling performances given by the players. It doesn't have any of that. What it does have though, is poor production design, continuity gaps you can drive a space shuttle through, and writing that's so bad, it's amazing anyone had the nerve to show it. That is what makes it a must see.

Ed Wood, Jr. was not talented, but he was determined. He did something that many extremely talented people have not done. He got it released. He wrote it, produced it and directed it. When his star, Bela Lugosi, died during filming, he still finished it. Not just this one either, he put out several films, and not one of them is any good.

So for all of you aspiring Scorseses or Spielbergs, when the world gets you down, and you just don't know how you can get it done, when you feel like you've lost it, pop in "Plan 9". I bet you'll feel better.
"
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Oscar likes Florida?.Lol I can't wait for the Oscar Myers jokes...

Yes Gro.You should check out troll 2.I think JFV directed it.It was voted worst movie of all time.Check out the trailer.But I must warn you to write your will first.
Looks like the season has end for me with the troughs coming to get the storms and pull them Northward.Usa should watch out with these set up.
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Some1has2BtheRookie?.

Gro did you watch it?.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You should have known something was up when the first 8 plans failed. Plan 9 must have been a Hail Marry plan. .... Run as far as you can and then jump up into the air.


The funny thing is that it is now cult movie.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


OK. You mean they are so bad they are good. Like the old movie "Plan 9 from Outer Space", arguably the worst movie ever made.


You should have known something was up when the first 8 plans failed. Plan 9 must have been a Hail Marry plan. .... Run as far as you can and then jump up into the air.
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Quoting guygee:
I had six four year old coconut trees in my front yard, they were just starting to take off. They were the Malaysian dwarf yellow type, not the best IMO. I bought a couple of sprouting coconuts this year, one from Hawaii and one from PR. I can protect the babies, but if that "Cold Continents Warm Arctic" pattern becomes more established in the coming years, we won't be seeing coconut trees anymore except in far southern FL.


The ones we lost were the old cocoanut trees that used to be in the millions down here. Now, you only see a handful. They were lost in the blight in the 70's and 80's.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Looks like we will need to turn our attention to the western caribbean around the 2nd week of Oct. as many of the ensemble members for various reliable models show development.

CMC 10-10-12:



10-13-12



GFS 10-15-12:



Experimental FIM 10-11-12:



Oscar likes Florida?.Lol I can't wait for the Oscar Myers jokes...

Yes Gro.You should check out troll 2.I think JFV directed it.It was voted worst movie of all time.Check out the trailer.But I must warn you to write your will first.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.No Gro.It's just that the movies are so cheesy and horrible that they make for a good laugh.And in that way their good.


OK. You mean they are so bad they are good. Like the old movie "Plan 9 from Outer Space", arguably the worst movie ever made.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


We lost a couple of old coconut palms with that one. A lot of plants died. It did a number on the geckos too.
I had six four year old coconut trees in my front yard, they were just starting to take off. They were the Malaysian dwarf yellow type, not the best IMO. I bought a couple of sprouting coconuts this year, one from Hawaii and one from PR. I can protect the babies, but if that "Cold Continents Warm Arctic" pattern becomes more established in the coming years, we won't be seeing coconut trees anymore except in far southern FL.
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Quoting Grothar:


Are you trying to confuse me again?
Lol.No Gro.It's just that the movies are so cheesy and horrible that they make for a good laugh.And in that way their good.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Looks like we will need to turn our attention to the western caribbean around the 2nd week of Oct. as many of the ensemble members for various reliable models show development.

CMC 10-10-12:



10-13-12



GFS 10-15-12:



Experimental FIM 10-11-12:



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Trying to wrap back around again.

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I still can't forgive/forget what happened on 6/29/12..A lot of people in the D.C area had that "why us?" type mentality.I personally don't want to experience it again.Then when the Derecho passed our area and went out into the ocean it fizzled out like a lil b___.You would think with a storm rolling through like that we would have cool temps afterwards.But we didn't.It went right back into the upper 90's with high dew points and humidity....
Quoting guygee:
No thank you. That winter killed more than 50% of the coconut trees living in my neighborhood and surrounding areas. Not so much a freeze or frost as a few weeks with days mostly in the 50's and nights in the 30's.

The following winter knocked off a lot more of the already weakened trees.

I hope for a winter like the last one, with an even distribution of rain. I hope for paradise on Earth, too.
The winter of 09-10 is snow lovers paradise :).This winter was a no show.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting guygee:
No thank you. That winter killed more than 50% of the coconut trees living in my neighborhood and surrounding areas. Not so much a freeze or frost as a few weeks with days mostly in the 50's and nights in the 30's.

The following winter knocked off a lot more of the already weakened trees.

I hope for a winter like the last one, with an even distribution of rain. I hope for paradise on Earth, too.


We lost a couple of old coconut palms with that one. A lot of plants died. It did a number on the geckos too.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Scfy original movies are the worst.They're so horrible that their good in their own bad way.


Are you trying to confuse me again?
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
GFS shows a big trough for the east in 11-12 days:





Is it that or the 4 formidable storms active in your image that draws attention?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope we have a set-up like the winter of 09-10 where cold air was spilling out of the arctic with a wet pattern in place.Most snow lovers here in the DMV would agree.Especially after the winter that never came(11-12).
No thank you. That winter killed more than 50% of the coconut trees living in my neighborhood and surrounding areas. Not so much a freeze or frost as a few weeks with days mostly in the 50's and nights in the 30's.

The following winter knocked off a lot more of the already weakened trees.

I hope for a winter like the last one, with an even distribution of rain. I hope for paradise on Earth, too.
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231. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22
9:00 AM JST September 30 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 13.5N 112.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.2N 113.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21
9:00 AM JST September 30 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Near Marianas Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 13.3N 149.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 15.1N 146.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Marianas Island

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #55
DEVELOPED LOW, FORMER EWINIAR (T1218)
9:00 AM JST September 29 2012
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Ewiniar (1000 hPa) located at 41.0N 154.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The low is reported as moving northeast at 25 knots.

Gsle Force Winds
=====================
300 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
200 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #79
TYPHOON JELAWAT (T1217)
9:00 AM JST September 30 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon South Southwest of Shionomisaki

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Jelawat (950 hPa) located at 31.5N 134.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 25 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
240 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 41.7N 145.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) City Of Kushiro (Japan)
48 HRS: 47.8N 164.7E - Extratropical Cyclone East Of Kirils
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
230. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting BillyinSeoul:
WHAT A RIDE!!!!
Not sure why Jelawat was so much worse after the eye passed. Is there a specific reason?


Watch the MIMIC. The more severe eyewall was definitely on the backside for you there.

Did you ever get your video posted?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I hope we have a set-up like the winter of 09-10 where cold air was spilling out of the arctic with a wet pattern in place.Most snow lovers here in the DMV would agree.Especially after the winter that never came(11-12).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
228. Skyepony (Mod)
Jelawat on TRMM.. click pic for very large quicktime animation..

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
GFS shows a big trough for the east in 11-12 days:



The GFS showed Issac hitting the East Coast!
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226. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yeah,and we know what it means for that enbatteled country.


A bunch of rain is the last thing they need sneaking up on them.


Looks like it's living on the divergence aloft created by the mid to upper level low to the west by the Caymans.
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Scfy original movies are the worst.They're so horrible that their good in their own bad way.
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94W

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223. Skyepony (Mod)
Imagery From: AMSU Microwave Instrument~ rain rate



There's some Harvest Moon Lore up in the comments of my blog tonight.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
94W looks really good.Could be the next major typhoon over there.
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Now that's a blob!
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Quoting Skyepony:


Headed right at Haiti..


Yeah,and we know what it means for that enbatteled country.
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Quoting FranAteMyRoof96:
looks like munch's "the scream" with a chef's hat

Short on wall space in a cramped duplex, I once had a poster of "The Scream" hanging in the dining room. A dinner guest complimented my taste, saying I had chosen the most appropriate place for it.
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217. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:
Blob Alert #1



Headed right at Haiti..
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Blob Alert #1

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Nadine doesn't look as good as it did earlier. The intensity has been held at 70 knots according to the 0Z ATCF update.

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00z Best Track keeps Nadine at 70kts.

AL, 14, 2012093000, , BEST, 0, 352N, 372W, 70, 987, HU
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Oh man, you sneaky fool!!


jinx!
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I think we will be living on the Island of South Florida if this rain keeps up!
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Quoting FranAteMyRoof96:
looks like munch's "the scream" with a chef's hat



Oh man, you sneaky fool!!
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Quoting islander101010:
a couple more months instead of teaching spanish or french rosetta will be offering alien languages


like this one






lol
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So this looks like some sort of alien-ghost hybrid that Nadine drew with her winds.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
looks like munch's "the scream" with a chef's hat

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I wonder what's going on with that big "blob" SW of Haiti, reminds a bit of Lenny in the sense that it would move east or NE... but maybe just a "blob", enhance by the ULL to the east, nothing going on at the surface,.... I think.....
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Other than the Atlantic, all basins across the world remain dead quiet. Except the West Pacific of course. Two invests...94W, with a medium chance of development in the next 24 hours, and 95W, with a low chance of development in the next 24 hours, and two tropical cyclones...Typhoon Jelawat, a Category 1 hurricane equivalent, and Tropical Storm Ewiniar, with 40 mph maximum sustained winds.

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather