Jelawat hits Okinawa; TS Norman feeds heavy rains in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2012

Typhoon Jelawat slammed into Okinawa Saturday morning as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. The small 7-mile diameter eye tracked just west of the island from southwest to northeast, bringing the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant eyewall to much of Okinawa. Kadena Air Base recorded sustained 10-minute average winds of 85 mph at the peak of the storm, with a top wind gust of 115 mph. The Kadena Facebook page has some impressive videos and photos of the damage, which included flipped cars, downed trees, and damage to signs and buildings. Satellite loops and radar loops show that Jelawat has weakened considerably. Wind shear is up to a very high 40 knots, and the storm is over much cooler waters. Jelawat is likely to be a tropical storm at landfall Sunday on the main island of Honshu in Japan.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Okinawa at 12:30 am local time on September 29, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Video 1. Typhoon Jelawat in Okinawa as filmed by storm chaser James Reynolds.

Nadine still a hurricane
Tenacious Hurricane Nadine has entered its 17th day of life, and continues to mill about a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next five days. The latest model runs show Nadine becoming tangled up with an upper level low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday as the storm comes close to the Azores Islands. This should cause Nadine to become an extratropical cyclone again. Nadine is already in fourth place for longest-lived named tropical storm since 1950:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 9:12 am EDT Saturday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Norman dying; heavy rains continue over Texas
Tropical Depression Norman has been moving slowly up the Gulf of California near the tip of Baja, Mexico since it formed Friday afternoon, but has been torn apart by high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The storm will likely be declared dead later today. Moisture from Norman fed an extratropical storm over Texas, and contributed to heavy rains in West Texas that caused flooding and water rescues on Friday. Midland-Odessa, Texas, picked up 4.66” of rain on Friday, making it the wettest September day on record and 3rd wettest day in city history (wettest day in city history: August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.)


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Norman in the Gulf of California at 4:30 pm EDT Friday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Norman had top winds of 40 mph, and was spreading a large stream of moisture northeastward into Mexico and Texas. The remains of Hurricane Miriam are at the left of the image, along with a curious little vortex just north of Miriam's remains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall in West Texas due to the moisture associated with Tropical Storm Norman. Heavy rains in excess of 4" fell near Midland/Odessa, Big Spring, and San Angelo.


Figure 5. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, October 4, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman will bring heavy rains to much of the South. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Other than the Atlantic, all basins across the world remain dead quiet. Except the West Pacific of course. Two invests...94W, with a medium chance of development in the next 24 hours, and 95W, with a low chance of development in the next 24 hours, and two tropical cyclones...Typhoon Jelawat, a Category 1 hurricane equivalent, and Tropical Storm Ewiniar, with 40 mph maximum sustained winds.

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Disco

THE BIG WEATHER STORY WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY, THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL REALLY GET CRANKING AS A MASSIVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION, AS THE TROUGH TRANSITIONS A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WITH PWAT`S
INCREASING TO WELL OVER TWO INCHES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS RUNNING CLOSE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUE FOR EARLY OCTOBER RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. AS ALWAYS IS THE CASE WITH THESE PATTERNS, THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS 48 HOURS IN ADVANCE ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BUT ALL INTERESTS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA.



UNCLE


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Miami NWS Disco

THE BIG WEATHER STORY WILL BE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY, THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL REALLY GET CRANKING AS A MASSIVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION, AS THE TROUGH TRANSITIONS A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL SET UP A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WITH PWAT`S
INCREASING TO WELL OVER TWO INCHES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH IS RUNNING CLOSE TO TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUE FOR EARLY OCTOBER RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS WITH THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. AS ALWAYS IS THE CASE WITH THESE PATTERNS, THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS 48 HOURS IN ADVANCE ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BUT ALL INTERESTS SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA.
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WHAT A RIDE!!!!
Not sure why Jelawat was so much worse after the eye passed. Is there a specific reason?
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201. etxwx
Quoting txjac:


Hevent gotten too much here ...not complaining at all ...wishing for a bit more!


We've gotten about an inch and a half since this started. Our pasture appreciates it, but at times today, the radar looked like we should have gotten much heavier rain. It's picking up again now. Like you said, I'm not complaining but could use more. Hope all of Texas and other drought areas get a good soaking.
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Quoting allancalderini:
In my country they are called Tamales and they are more greenish.


Tamales and enchilada's are 2 diff things...pic looks like a tamale though (how I would LOVE one of them LOL)


I'm for Nadiine breaking the record! I think it'd be kinda cool of they retired the name for a record breaker though, not every year one breaks it. Don't reckon they would though as kind of diminishes the importance of why they retire names maybe? Nevertheless...Go Nadine!
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There are now 82 Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Orion Rises Higher every Night now...

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
GFS shows a big trough for the east in 11-12 days:




I got to say the GFS has been consistent with showing troughs coming down, keeping my fingers crossed.
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Can wundergirl12 come out on the main blog?.I would like to meet them.
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First snowfall of the season for Anchorage...

The Anchorage bowl and surrounding areas observed the first snowfall
of the season Friday night into Saturday morning. The following are
preliminary snowfall estimates as of 11am akdt saturday:

Upper dearmoun... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 7.0 in
birch and dearmoun... ... ... ... ... ... ..6.5 in
Eagle River (hiland rd)... ... ... ... ... 5.3 in
o'malley and hillside... ... ... ... ... ..5.0 in
birch and Abbott... ... ... ... ... ... ... .4.0 in
67th and Elmore... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..2.0 in
Palmer... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ..0.5 in
NWS office (sand lake road)... ... ... ..0.2 in

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
GFS shows a big trough for the east in 11-12 days:



Yes yes and yes!!.Summer better not rear it's ugly a-- head 'round here anymore.
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GFS shows a big trough for the east in 11-12 days:



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There's lots of convection in the Atlantic. Does anything look like it might become something? I remember Dr. Postel on the TWC said that the Caribbean would become favorable in early October, which is in a few days.
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
a couple more months instead of teaching spanish or french rosetta will be offering alien languages
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back in the old days instead of watching tv or clicking the web people watched the stars
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The Bermuda Ridge looks to be replaced by the second week of October(or at least weaken and be shoved eastwards)!!!
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185. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting zicoille:
Bizarre bizarre,
Just before the end of the run on this link: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/na tl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

ook at the line appearing just on the northern leewards islands.Just after, the humidity diminish, and the drier air takes the form of the line...


I pointed that out yesterday posting Imagery From: DMSP SSM/I Microwave Instrument. Odd to see it on there & so complete too. I had posted only a segment of it as polar sat's swath only caught part of it.
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ancient aliens on all night also a big fan of graham hancocks books
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182. txjac
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well you southerns asked for it and you got your rain.So please don't run on here complaining :).Be careful what you wish for.You just might get it but not the way you like it.


Hevent gotten too much here ...not complaining at all ...wishing for a bit more!
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Interesting convection south of haiti.... oF COURSE IT WILL NEVER GET TO ME
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weather waits on no one..

Dr. Greg Forbes


There have been reports of a funnel cloud in south NC, two tornadoes and a waterspout in southeast TX. I was trying to take a day off, but have come now to TWC and will be on air at 10 and 10:30 PM EDT and at other times if storms get "out of control."
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Well you southerns asked for it and you got your rain.So please don't run on here complaining :).Be careful what you wish for.You just might get it but not the way you like it.
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178. BDAwx
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
That is...not normal for a Category 3 equivalent.

Link


Its definitely characteristic of category 3 equivalent winds. If an EF2 tornado can flip cars, a category 3 hurricane can.

The car was probably flipped because it stuck out above the nearby car so the force of the wind near the top of the car was greater than the bottom causing it to tip over. When it was tipping over it got caught by the wind because it had less contact with the ground and so less static friction so the force of the wind was able to carry it a distance before it regained its 'footing'.
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Bizarre bizarre,
Just before the end of the run on this link: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/na tl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

ook at the line appearing just on the northern leewards islands.Just after, the humidity diminish, and the drier air takes the form of the line...
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Nice and cool outside.My tree in the front yard usually changes colors in mid-late October.Now it's showing hints of yellow all over the tree :).Once again it rained for the third night(I think fourth because I saw rain puddles on wensday morning).
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Boxes are active

Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop




GOM IR Rainbow

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OH YESSSSS !!

It's raining. Nice and heavy too.

Thanks guys.

:):))
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Work on that southeast side, Nadine...

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there are now two tornado warnings in NC..and one in SC
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0449 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE SC...CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292149Z - 292245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...BRIEF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD TORNADO AND/OR HAIL
AND DMGG WINDS. DUE TO THE BRIEF/ISOLD NATURE...A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED INVOF A SURFACE
LOW LOCATED ACROSS N CNTRL SC EXTENDING NEWD INTO S CNTRL NC...AND
ALONG AN APPARENT AREA OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE THAT IS SAGGING ESEWD.
AREA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA IS SHOWING APPROXIMATELY 43 KT 0-6 KM
SHEAR...AND WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW /ALBEIT LIGHT/...AT LEAST BRIEF ROTATION HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH STORMS THAT HAVE BECOME SUSTAINED. CLOUD COVER APPEARS
TO HAVE LIMITED STRONGER SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH THE
ONGOING STORMS ARE PROGRESSING INTO A RELATIVE MAXIMUM WHERE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID-70S
TO LOWER 80S. AS SUCH...A NARROW TEMPORAL THREAT MAY EXIST FOR A
COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL COOLING AND SUBSEQUENT
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.

..HURLBUT/CARBIN.. 09/29/2012


ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34598192 35168038 35397923 35217860 34757856 34277919
34028017 33858102 33958190 34598192

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Quoting wxchaser97:

The only storm that has a good chance of retirement is Isaac because of the damage and death he caused.


I can tell one from firsthand experience from Laplace, to Braithwaite here in Se. Louisiana.

Hurricane Issac will be retired in my opinion.

Isaac Damaged at Least 13,000 Se. La. Homes


Published on Sep 5, 2012 by Associated Press

An emergency official says Hurricane Isaac damaged at least 13,000 homes in Louisiana. The storm also uprooted coffins in a cemetery in Braithwaite, Louisiana. (Sept. 5)


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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tropical cyclones are not retired for that reason. Retirement is a special action only taken when a system causes an excessive amount of damage or loss of life.

The only storm this year with a greater than 50% chance of retirement (IMHO) is Isaac.
Quoting allancalderini:
Doubt they will retire her for that reason unless she cause a lot of damage and death I don`t see why would they retire her.this season only Isaac looks poise to be gone of the list.

The only storm that has a good chance of retirement is Isaac because of the damage and death he caused.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
So do you all think Nadine should be retired if she eclipses the record for longest lived storm in the Atlantic. I say yes.
Doubt they will retire her for that reason unless she cause a lot of damage and death I don`t see why would they retire her.this season only Isaac looks poise to be gone of the list.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Maybe the damage cause in Spain.

Except that low isn't Nadine herself so that doesn't count anyway, you need a special/good reason for retirement and Nadine doesn't have one.
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Quoting Grothar:


Ha, I just sneaked a few forksfull myself. It should be a blog rule not to post images of food. I get hungry easily.


Speaking of which how was dinosaur back in the day?
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Quoting wxchaser97:

If she does a big amount of damage/deaths on a nation or has a lasting impact then yes, longest lived tropical cyclone that doesn't do much is a no for me.
Maybe the damage cause in Spain.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
So do you all think Nadine should be retired if she eclipses the record for longest lived storm in the Atlantic. I say yes.

Tropical cyclones are not retired for that reason. Retirement is a special action only taken when a system causes an excessive amount of damage or loss of life.

The only storm this year with a greater than 50% chance of retirement (IMHO) is Isaac.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Post 118. Is that an Enchilada?
In my country they are called Tamales and they are more greenish.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
So do you all think Nadine should be retired if she eclipses the record for longest lived storm in the Atlantic. I say yes.


No. The WMO already retires names too often.
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one tornado warning in NC and one in SC

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
So do you all think Nadine should be retired if she eclipses the record for longest lived storm in the Atlantic. I say yes.

If she does a big amount of damage/deaths on a nation or has a lasting impact then yes, longest lived tropical cyclone that doesn't do much is a no for me.
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Quoting LargoFl:
Post 118. Is that an Enchilada?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Shes just been there harassing the Azores.Shes the Atlantic's lost child that can't seem to find her way back home(Africa).Shes always close but turns in the wrong direction.


I have been thinking of Nadine in terms of a venerable granny. Lost and senile, tottering about the Atlantic on a quest for something she's forgotten.
But then she became a hurricane again.

Now I'm thinkin'...
Granny's got game!
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So do you all think Nadine should be retired if she eclipses the record for longest lived storm in the Atlantic. I say yes.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Here are my best guesses for now:

Oscar 80% chance
Patty 10% chance

But then again...this naming list has been cursed in the past. We've never made it to Oscar every time we use this list.


Superstition.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather