Jelawat hits Okinawa; TS Norman feeds heavy rains in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2012

Typhoon Jelawat slammed into Okinawa Saturday morning as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. The small 7-mile diameter eye tracked just west of the island from southwest to northeast, bringing the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant eyewall to much of Okinawa. Kadena Air Base recorded sustained 10-minute average winds of 85 mph at the peak of the storm, with a top wind gust of 115 mph. The Kadena Facebook page has some impressive videos and photos of the damage, which included flipped cars, downed trees, and damage to signs and buildings. Satellite loops and radar loops show that Jelawat has weakened considerably. Wind shear is up to a very high 40 knots, and the storm is over much cooler waters. Jelawat is likely to be a tropical storm at landfall Sunday on the main island of Honshu in Japan.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Okinawa at 12:30 am local time on September 29, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Video 1. Typhoon Jelawat in Okinawa as filmed by storm chaser James Reynolds.

Nadine still a hurricane
Tenacious Hurricane Nadine has entered its 17th day of life, and continues to mill about a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next five days. The latest model runs show Nadine becoming tangled up with an upper level low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday as the storm comes close to the Azores Islands. This should cause Nadine to become an extratropical cyclone again. Nadine is already in fourth place for longest-lived named tropical storm since 1950:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 9:12 am EDT Saturday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Norman dying; heavy rains continue over Texas
Tropical Depression Norman has been moving slowly up the Gulf of California near the tip of Baja, Mexico since it formed Friday afternoon, but has been torn apart by high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The storm will likely be declared dead later today. Moisture from Norman fed an extratropical storm over Texas, and contributed to heavy rains in West Texas that caused flooding and water rescues on Friday. Midland-Odessa, Texas, picked up 4.66” of rain on Friday, making it the wettest September day on record and 3rd wettest day in city history (wettest day in city history: August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.)


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Norman in the Gulf of California at 4:30 pm EDT Friday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Norman had top winds of 40 mph, and was spreading a large stream of moisture northeastward into Mexico and Texas. The remains of Hurricane Miriam are at the left of the image, along with a curious little vortex just north of Miriam's remains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall in West Texas due to the moisture associated with Tropical Storm Norman. Heavy rains in excess of 4" fell near Midland/Odessa, Big Spring, and San Angelo.


Figure 5. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, October 4, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman will bring heavy rains to much of the South. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE INLAND
MOVING SEA BREEZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC BUT A GRADUAL
INLAND PROGRESSION OF ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR OF THE PENINSULA...NEAR INTERSTATE 4 AND INTO
LAKE COUNTY...RESULTING IN FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
40 TO 45 MPH.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
That is...not normal for a Category 3 equivalent.

Link


LOL...was that a car that got picked up and rolled over? It looked like a trash can for a second. And why didn't the other cars to the left get picked up?
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Quoting Grothar:
If this were September, I would be worried.

..yesterday GFS had this low going inland around alabama then northeastward inland
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Quoting VR46L:


It is September lol


Yes, but what year?
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That is...not normal for a Category 3 equivalent.

Link
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Quoting Grothar:


Pat, you and I have to coordinate our maps. We are always posting the same thing at the same time.:)


I agree.



As we approach Dec 21,our synchronicity will increase further.

Were having Seafood Gumbo fer Dinner?

And you?
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Quoting Grothar:
If this were September, I would be worried.


Ahhh Gro, last time I checked it is September 29th but maybe I slept through a few days...
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Quoting Grothar:
If this were September, I would be worried.

perfect it didnt get much attention because it was "supposed" to be further north
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Quoting Grothar:
If this were September, I would be worried.


Gro, did you take your medicine today?
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Me too....when are they gonna fix it? Is NASA going to have to send up a space crew?

GOES 13 may be a goner... I sure hope not but the longer it goes without a fix the less optimistic I get... it'd really be a shame if we've lost it for good.

On a brighter note, I just finished a blog.

Link
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September 2012 was the warmest and was the third driest on record in Puerto Rico.


.CLIMATE...SEP 2012 AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WILL END AS THE WARMEST
SEP ON RECORD. SEP 2012 HAS NOW MOVED SOLELY INTO FIRST PLACE WITH
AN AVG TEMP OF 85.0F DEG SO FAR. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S WHICH COULD CHALLENGE THE RECORD
FOR THE DATE OF 94 DEGS. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...SEP 2012 WILL END AS
AS THE SECOND DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 1.66 INCHES OF
RAIN SO FAR. VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF SEP.



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Thank you Dr. Masters....Sure doesn't feel like fall here in south Florida.


Trust me...That'll change in about 1-2 weeks!
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Quoting Grothar:
If this were September, I would be worried.



It is September lol
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Quoting Patrap:
Boxes are active


Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop



Pat, you and I have to coordinate our maps. We are always posting the same thing at the same time.:)
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Me too....when are they gonna fix it? Is NASA going to have to send up a space crew?


A major weather satellite monitoring the U.S. East Coast has shut down, prompting officials to activate a spare satellite to take its place.

The GOES-13 satellite failed after days of erratic behavior, officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials said Monday (Sept. 24). The replacement, GOES-14, has already begun snapping pictures of Earth from space to monitor the U.S. eastern coast along with the continental U.S. and Atlantic basin, they added.

"GOES-14 will remain the primary GOES satellite over the Atlantic basin and Continental U.S. until the imager and sounder data issues on GOES-13 can be fully diagnosed and hopefully fixed," NOAA officials said in the Monday statement.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Me too....when are they gonna fix it? Is NASA going to have to send up a space crew?

On the top of the NAVY site: NOTE: GOES-14 data has now replaced GOES-13 due to spacecraft anomaly. As for when/if they will fix it is to be known later.
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If this were September, I would be worried.

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Quoting muddertracker:
Pig Pooohey. It's amazing what a hot blonde, a motorcycle, and an idiot can do to a football program.

Still raining in Cedar Park, TX.

Thanks Doc.


Been Seattle-raining here in the Metroplex(DFW). I Love this!!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine may make it even higher than 70 knots if it wraps that convection around the southeast side of the eye.

I miss GOES-13.


Darn, I had Nadine peaking at 80mph but she might have other ideas. I too miss GOES-13.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine may make it even higher than 70 knots if it wraps that convection around the southeast side of the eye.

I miss GOES-13.



Me too....when are they gonna fix it? Is NASA going to have to send up a space crew?
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Boxes are active


Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Nadine is as strong as she's ever been, back up to 70 knots (80 mph) according to the ATCF:

AL, 14, 2012092918, , BEST, 0, 339N, 365W, 70, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 0, 0, 1018, 180, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,


O_o

Now..I am even more sure she'll be 85 mph by 11 PM tonight...not 100% sure..but more sure...
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Nadine may make it even higher than 70 knots if it wraps that convection around the southeast side of the eye.

I miss GOES-13.

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This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Louisiana...south Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters. Today and tonight... Showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. A few storms may briefly become strong with wind gusts to near 40 mph. Heavy rainfall will be possible...especially across southwest Mississippi and western portions of southeast Louisiana near the Atchafalaya River basin. Sunday through Friday... Showers and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday. A strong to severe storm or two cannot be ruled out.

The main threat with these storms will be damaging winds...occasional lightning and very heavy rainfall. Accumulation of persistent rainfall may total 2 to 4 inches through Sunday afternoon in many locations with locally heavier amounts possible. If the track of the low pressure is further south than currently forecast...the threat of heavy rainfall would become more widespread across the area.

Strong south winds developing Sunday will likely prompt Small Craft Advisories across the coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories will likely continue into Monday after cold frontal passage with frequent gusts 20 knots or greater.

Tides are expected to increase to one half to one foot above normal Sunday into early Monday due to strong south winds...particularly along south facing shores. Spotter Information Statement... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Emergency managers are encouraged to monitor the weather through the weekend for localized flood potential due to persistent rains and elevated tides.

There is an increased potential for local flooding in areas where water remains from Hurricane Isaac.
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Quoting pottery:

True that.
Some cloudiness to the east may bring some relief around Monday. But it's moving closer very slowly, with strong westerlies in the upper levels.


LOL...I never defined cloudiness as relief for me...
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Yep...but Chris only topped out at 75 mph...if I remember right?

So I suppose she indeed does look like Chris's peak right now because she too is 75 mph right now. Lets see how high Nadine can go...

Chris peaked at 75mph, Nadine wants to go further than that.
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Good afternoon all, Is the Low over Texas expected to move into the NW GOM? It has strong energy with it.
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Quoting VR46L:
I know its not tropical in nature but there is some serious weather in the northern gulf

Link

Trying to embed hopefully click the image and the link for full movie works

Hmmmmm...interesting....
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I know its not tropical in nature but there is some serious weather in the northern gulf

Link

Trying to embed, hopefully click the image and the link for full movie works

Yes it worked lol
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Upper convergence behind current central Atlantic upper trough I suppose is providing sinking dry air over your area...

True that.
Some cloudiness to the east may bring some relief around Monday. But it's moving closer very slowly, with strong westerlies in the upper levels.
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Looks like the little circulation I noticed north of Miriam yesterday also caught the eye of Dr. Masters. I wonder what was up with that thing...
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Quoting stormpetrol:


very weak broad circulation around 13N/82W

hey stormpetrol long time no see

yeah I saw that steering says this one will move N and with that front in the extereme NW GOM that should change to NE this should be watched
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Thank you Dr. Masters....Sure doesn't feel like fall here in south Florida.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Nadine really reminds me of Chris right now.

Yep...but Chris only topped out at 75 mph...if I remember right?

So I suppose she indeed does look like Chris's peak right now because she too is 75 mph right now. Lets see how high Nadine can go...
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Quoting pottery:
WAH !
It's 95F, 44% humid, mostly still and cloudless.
This is very peculiar weather for this time of year in Trinidad.
Should be on a beach right now......

Upper convergence behind current central Atlantic upper trough I suppose is providing sinking dry air over your area...
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Nadine is as strong as she's ever been, back up to 70 knots (80 mph) according to the ATCF:

AL, 14, 2012092918, , BEST, 0, 339N, 365W, 70, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 0, 0, 1018, 180, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,
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WAH !
It's 95F, 44% humid, mostly still and cloudless.
This is very peculiar weather for this time of year in Trinidad.
Should be on a beach right now......
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
She's got the high latitude look going:


Nadine really reminds me of Chris right now.
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She's got the high latitude look going:

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Well as TA said an eye is really trying to form with Nadine.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine's best attempt at well-formed eye yet.


Man...she has been one lucky storm...her formation several days ago has made her in the right place at the right time. For instance had she moved off Africa a little earlier...I think she would have been pulled NE into oblivion (by that earlier trough) when she was near the Azores last week...
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Nadine's best attempt at well-formed eye yet.

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Quoting yonzabam:


This emphasizes the importance of vertical instability. There's been a lack of vertical instabilty throughout the Atlantic hurricane zone for the past two years, which explains why many storms haven't intensified as expected.

I am thinking in Nadine's specific case...her potential surprise intensification over cooler waters will be more related to upper divergence rather than instability. An upper trough is about to pass to her north than NE...and she will be just at the right location to get her northern outflow enhanced by the westerly jet on the south end of this upper trough (rather than get sheared by the jet). To the SW of her...an upper trough is amplifying into an upper vortex...another potential sink for her upper outflow if the upper vortex doesn't get too close to her...
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thanks doc
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Quoting wxchaser97:

There was also Chris became a hurricane this year over 22C SST's due to the cold atmosphere. Nadine has a similar situation so she may try to do something.


This emphasizes the importance of vertical instability. There's been a lack of vertical instabilty throughout the Atlantic hurricane zone for the past two years, which explains why many storms haven't intensified as expected.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

I do support a strong intensification on my new blog post...you can read how Nadine could do this over waters below 26 deg C! Can't wait to see what happens...but I don't think she can go above cat 1 because of the water temps (Gordon after all pulled of this stunt with waters above 26 deg C)....

There was also Chris who became a hurricane this year over 22C SST's due to the cold atmosphere. Nadine has a similar situation so she may try to do something.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Just thinking about Nadine becoming a cat2-3 hurricane after RI is making me go crazy:) If Nadine somehow did that then I wold be totally not surprised just because we are talking about Nadine.

I do support a strong intensification on my new blog post...you can read how Nadine could do this over waters below 26 deg C! Can't wait to see what happens...but I don't think she can go above cat 1 because of the water temps (Gordon after all pulled of this stunt with waters above 26 deg C)....
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Just thinking about Nadine becoming a cat2-3 hurricane after RI is making me go crazy:) If Nadine somehow did that then I wold be totally not surprised just because we are talking about Nadine.


Exactly. She finally established an eyewall, so anything is possible with her.
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Quoting LostTomorrows:
Nadine actually looks as though she could be stronger on the next advisory. Watch her go all RI on us and become a category 2 by tonight.

Just thinking about Nadine becoming a cat2-3 hurricane after RI is making me go crazy:) If Nadine somehow did that then I would be totally not surprised just because we are talking about Nadine.
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very weak broad circulation around 13N/82W
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Nadine actually looks as though she could be stronger on the next advisory. Watch her go all RI on us and become a category 2 by tonight.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather