Jelawat hits Okinawa; TS Norman feeds heavy rains in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2012

Typhoon Jelawat slammed into Okinawa Saturday morning as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. The small 7-mile diameter eye tracked just west of the island from southwest to northeast, bringing the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant eyewall to much of Okinawa. Kadena Air Base recorded sustained 10-minute average winds of 85 mph at the peak of the storm, with a top wind gust of 115 mph. The Kadena Facebook page has some impressive videos and photos of the damage, which included flipped cars, downed trees, and damage to signs and buildings. Satellite loops and radar loops show that Jelawat has weakened considerably. Wind shear is up to a very high 40 knots, and the storm is over much cooler waters. Jelawat is likely to be a tropical storm at landfall Sunday on the main island of Honshu in Japan.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Okinawa at 12:30 am local time on September 29, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Video 1. Typhoon Jelawat in Okinawa as filmed by storm chaser James Reynolds.

Nadine still a hurricane
Tenacious Hurricane Nadine has entered its 17th day of life, and continues to mill about a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next five days. The latest model runs show Nadine becoming tangled up with an upper level low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday as the storm comes close to the Azores Islands. This should cause Nadine to become an extratropical cyclone again. Nadine is already in fourth place for longest-lived named tropical storm since 1950:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 9:12 am EDT Saturday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Norman dying; heavy rains continue over Texas
Tropical Depression Norman has been moving slowly up the Gulf of California near the tip of Baja, Mexico since it formed Friday afternoon, but has been torn apart by high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The storm will likely be declared dead later today. Moisture from Norman fed an extratropical storm over Texas, and contributed to heavy rains in West Texas that caused flooding and water rescues on Friday. Midland-Odessa, Texas, picked up 4.66” of rain on Friday, making it the wettest September day on record and 3rd wettest day in city history (wettest day in city history: August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.)


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Norman in the Gulf of California at 4:30 pm EDT Friday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Norman had top winds of 40 mph, and was spreading a large stream of moisture northeastward into Mexico and Texas. The remains of Hurricane Miriam are at the left of the image, along with a curious little vortex just north of Miriam's remains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall in West Texas due to the moisture associated with Tropical Storm Norman. Heavy rains in excess of 4" fell near Midland/Odessa, Big Spring, and San Angelo.


Figure 5. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, October 4, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman will bring heavy rains to much of the South. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Down into the mid to upper 50s here in SE TX this morning.
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691. weatherbro 11:08 PM EDT on September 30, 2012

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Fall Begins, But Cool Weather Still Off in the Distance for South Florida

Trust me... That's gonna change next week according to Larry Cosgrove and many other major mets!!!

You better be right this time weatherbro!!!

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Quoting AussieStorm:

Really, I thought your into Autumn there now which means it should be cooling down?


Yea, it starts cooling down from 95 degrees to 89 degrees ;)

It does get cold here, but not usually in October. Lowest we usually see is 39.
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October is usually one of our wettest months here for us.So I'm waiting to see what we get this month.We still have a 6" deficit here but we're making progress on erasing it fo' sho'(as Pat says).
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Too hot, way too hot.

Really, I thought your into Autumn there now which means it should be cooling down?
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G-3 storm from sun, but subsiding now.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Your a bit late it's almost October 2 here.
How are ya Cybr. How is your part of this little blue planet 3rd from the sun?


Too hot, way too hot.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyways, welcome to October all!

Your a bit late it's almost October 2 here.
How are ya Cybr. How is your part of this little blue planet 3rd from the sun?
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Off topic but also very cool. This is what we as a planet sound like out in Space.

NASA Spacecraft Records 'Earthsong'.
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Anyways, welcome to October all!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Disco

THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW ONLY SHOWING ABOUT 1 TO 2
INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL AREA WIDE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. SO AT THIS TIME WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...DUE TO THE LOW TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
OVER THE CWA. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ISSUE A HYDROLOGICAL
OUTLOOK STATEMENT FOR THE POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
This statement form the NWS is kind of odd?,looking at the Satellite presentation it seems like the moisture to our South is growing!! and the blob is getting bigger?so will see what happens in the next few days.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:


Hey, Bird. You sound like a Raven. A loud, obnoxious, bird eating and feeding voraciously off other bloggers through ridicule and mockery to get yourself off. Isn't Baltimore home off the Ravens?

Might I suggest another occupation. Or perhaps You should get off the blog...


Your doing what they want, don't bite, just and Ignore User.

Nadine did an all right upside-down inside-out drawing of the Australian mainland.



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Quoting aussiecold:
Quoting washingtonian115:
It was another cool morning.But that is to be expected for October right?.The sun is out now but should see some increasing cloulds come later today especially tonight as the area of low pressure arrives.Then Tuesday will bring with it rain.

(Sorry haven't had the morning coffee yet).


go to facebook or myspace with your garbage comments!!!!


That's uncalled for, he's simply asking a relevant question.
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Miami NWS Disco

THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW ONLY SHOWING ABOUT 1 TO 2
INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL AREA WIDE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. SO AT THIS TIME WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...DUE TO THE LOW TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
OVER THE CWA. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ISSUE A HYDROLOGICAL
OUTLOOK STATEMENT FOR THE POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
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A lot of moisture in the Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico,anybody thinks that we will have some type of tropical development from all this moisture??, looking at the models South Florida at the minimum is going to have a significant!!!!!! rain event in the next few days,also some of the models hints some type of development as the moisture blob cross Cuba.We can almost see a faint hint of some rotations in the clouds south of Cuba.Any comments? anybody else is seeing this?.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
786:

Bird. You should learn to pick your battles. You let that bother you. Really? How about the endless banter and nonsense certain bloggers post on here attempting miserably to equate every single weather event to fulfill their global warming agenda. If there is anything that should get under your frail skin, it should be that. Let it go, Bud.
I really don't think that's the real baltimorebirds...
Quoting aussiecold:
Quoting washingtonian115:
It was another cool morning.But that is to be expected for October right?.The sun is out now but should see some increasing cloulds come later today especially tonight as the area of low pressure arrives.Then Tuesday will bring with it rain.

(Sorry haven't had the morning coffee yet).


go to facebook or myspace with your garbage comments!!!!
??
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Quoting TomballTXPride:


You will have your winter this year, Wash. I truly feel this will be your year of a massive 18-24 inch snowfall followed by a three week arctic plunge of air that will keep your temperatures at or near 0 degrees for the low.

You will enjoy this winter.
I'm crossing fingers here.Me and the kiddies want to build a family of snow men.My father did it with me and my siblings when we were growing up everytime we had a big snow event.The memories!.
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12z Best Track for 96L.

AL, 96, 2012100112, , BEST, 0, 118N, 322W, 25, 1008, LO
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area is nw carib seems to be more circular than yesterday
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The
admins added a new rule the other day stating that political discussion
is allowed as long as it is relevant. Those against it are just going
to have to suck it up.

I think this statement made folks feel entitled to spew both views, surely there is enough of that on TV and radio. Missing the insightful and entertaining Weather discussions.  Cool and not our usual Weather here in the Houston area.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Well I think it might be safe to say it will be the official end to the growing season by this time next week for much of the Midwest, Central Plains, and Mid-Mississippi Valley...

Now if only that could move closer over here...
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It was another cool morning.But that is to be expected for October right?.The sun is out now but should see some increasing cloulds come later today especially tonight as the area of low pressure arrives.Then Tuesday will bring with it rain.

(Sorry haven't had the morning coffee yet).
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The admins added a new rule the other day stating that political discussion is allowed as long as it is relevant. Those against it are just going to have to suck it up.


Rule 11: Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.
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The admins added a new rule the other day stating that political discussion is allowed as long as it is relevant. Those against it are just going to have to suck it up.
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Quoting Dakster:


Starting to sound like the permanent solution is going to be a new satellite...


They never should of labeled it "13".
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Thanks, Looks like Nadine is set up to take the record and then some.

Hope Dr. M. Give a bye-bye 13 tribute. Is there a best of GOES 13 photo gallery?
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Post 751, now we should begin to get a little better imagery out in parts of the Atlantic. I hope a permanent solution is found soon.


Starting to sound like the permanent solution is going to be a new satellite...
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WU blog should be placed under "Fight Club" in the dictionary..the first rule of Fight Club is not to talk about fight club..same should be applied here for politics as well..First rule of WU is not to talk about politics and its always the "Usual Suspects" who bring it up..."The Expendable" of talking politics should be an automatic ban no matter who you are..If I "total recall" it well, it use to be but now all that has changed..One day, an "Avenger" will save this blog and turn it back to a weather blog.

See you guys later..have a great day!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
This morning's conversation:

* The temporary(?) replacement of GOES-13 with GOES-14
* Nadine still there
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This morning's conversation:

-"This was a great site until those libs took over this blog to the point it seems to rarely be about tropical weather discussions anymore."

--"You're right. We don't need to talk about those types here with their out in left field radical socialism. No politics. Let's talk about tropical weather."

--"For sure. Political talk leads nowhere--especially when it's all those scumbag lefties who have infested the blog and taken over like crabgrass or Dandelions in lush, green grass."

--"I agree. I have nothing to say about politics here. I just know that we don't need 4 more years of this economic quagmire. We'll all be 'Walking Dead' by then."

--"Yes. Look how those libs have come on this morning and ruined the blog with their political speech."

You guys are too much, I tell you. Too much. But thanks, as always, for the morning laughs! ;-)

P.S.: Nadine is back to a tropical storm. Again:

AL, 14, 2012100112, , BEST, 0, 360N, 393W, 60, 991, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 40, 50, 1020, 250, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,
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Quoting Slamguitar:


R.I.P. GOES-13.

Glad to see we will get normal imagery back over the Atlantic soon. Might be due to 96L?

Are they going to try and recover GOES-13 or just send it out into space?
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Quoting biff4ugo:
So did Nadine make it past 19.5 days yet?

Looks like a very broad circular motion around the Cuba blob. Plenty of thunderheads rising in the middle.


Nadine has lived about 20 days and still has a few more to live.

I have to go to school, bye everyone.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Slamguitar:


R.I.P. GOES-13.

Glad to see we will get normal imagery back over the Atlantic soon. Might be due to 96L?

It is good to be returning to a more normal state over the next week. I think this is scheduled as 96L is moving closer to that satellite anyway.
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Is GOES 13 permanently shut down? Can our rocket surgeons bring it back to life?
Is 14 leaving an image gap?
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Quoting AussieStorm:
GOES-13/14 Update....

Date/Time of Initial Impact: October 1, 2012 1545 UTC


Date/Time of Expected End: October 1, 2012 1609 UTC (maneuver);
Drift will
continue eastward at 0.90 degrees per day


Length of Outage: See table in detail.


Details/Specifics of Change: In order to support users with better data
during the ongoing GOES-13 anomaly recovery, a GOES-14 East Drift Start
Maneuver will be performed today, Monday, October 1, 2012, at 1545 UTC.
GOES-14 is currently positioned at 105 degrees west, and upon the
maneuver, the eastward longitudinal drift will be initiated.
GOES-14 will
drift 0.90 degrees per day to the East towards the location of
GOES-13 at
75 degrees West.


Final location of GOES-14 is dependent upon the ongoing recovery of
GOES-13. During this transition, direct readout users can continue to
receive GOES-14 data via the GOES-13 GVAR broadcast stream from
75 degrees
West, and will not have to repoint their antennas to GOES-14. GOES-13
imager and sounder remain out of service at this time.


Location of frame boundaries of the satellite scanning sectors will be
adjusted every Wednesday at the 1900 UTC housekeeping period.
This will
cause a one time shift in the image and sounding frames each Wednesday.
GINI and Remapper output will be monitored to ensure optimal
coverage of
the CONUS for users of AWIPS and of the SATEPSDIST servers within ESPC.
Image Navigation and Registration (INR) is expected to remain within
specification during this drift period. For NWS operations, during this
time period, RSO (Rapid Scan Operations) will be available. No SRSO
(Super
Rapid Scan Operations) will be available.


On October 1, 2012 the following schedule will be employed to support
maneuver operations:


GOES-14 East Drift Start Maneuver Schedule begins at 1545 UTC on
October 1,
2012.


>From 1545 UTC through 1606 UTC -- GOES-14 No Scan Operations


There will be no GOES-15 (GOES-West) Full Disk (30 minute) Imaging.


There will be no recovery schedule for this maneuver.


1609 UTC -- GOES-14 Routine Scan Operations Resume.


Please note: Since post-maneuver attitude performance is expected to be
nominal, a special recovery schedule is not required, and the
6-hour INR
(Image Navigation Registration) recovery period will be supported by
Routine schedule.


R.I.P. GOES-13.

Glad to see we will get normal imagery back over the Atlantic soon. Might be due to 96L?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Will take a few days, but it should become better.

Yup, I am happy that the Atlantic isn't in the dark anymore.
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So did Nadine make it past 19.5 days yet?

Looks like a very broad circular motion around the Cuba blob. Plenty of thunderheads rising in the middle.

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Are we allowed to talk about Politics on here?
Didn't they add an extra rule to stop it from happening.

Rule 11: Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.
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000
ABNT30 KNHC 011157
TWSAT

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 01 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TWO TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN DURING THE MONTH
OF SEPTEMBER. BOTH OF THESE REACHED HURRICANE STATUS...WHILE MICHAEL
BECAME THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. THESE
TOTALS WERE BELOW THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE (1981 TO 2010) OF FOUR
NAMED STORMS AND NEAR THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES OF TWO TO THREE
HURRICANES AND ONE OR TWO MAJOR HURRICANES.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS YEAR IS ABOUT 50 PERCENT ABOVE THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB
SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS...
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2012ATLAN.SHTML
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Post 751, now we should begin to get a little better imagery out in parts of the Atlantic. I hope a permanent solution is found soon.

Will take a few days, but it should become better.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather