Jelawat hits Okinawa; TS Norman feeds heavy rains in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2012

Typhoon Jelawat slammed into Okinawa Saturday morning as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. The small 7-mile diameter eye tracked just west of the island from southwest to northeast, bringing the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant eyewall to much of Okinawa. Kadena Air Base recorded sustained 10-minute average winds of 85 mph at the peak of the storm, with a top wind gust of 115 mph. The Kadena Facebook page has some impressive videos and photos of the damage, which included flipped cars, downed trees, and damage to signs and buildings. Satellite loops and radar loops show that Jelawat has weakened considerably. Wind shear is up to a very high 40 knots, and the storm is over much cooler waters. Jelawat is likely to be a tropical storm at landfall Sunday on the main island of Honshu in Japan.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Okinawa at 12:30 am local time on September 29, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Video 1. Typhoon Jelawat in Okinawa as filmed by storm chaser James Reynolds.

Nadine still a hurricane
Tenacious Hurricane Nadine has entered its 17th day of life, and continues to mill about a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next five days. The latest model runs show Nadine becoming tangled up with an upper level low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday as the storm comes close to the Azores Islands. This should cause Nadine to become an extratropical cyclone again. Nadine is already in fourth place for longest-lived named tropical storm since 1950:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 9:12 am EDT Saturday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Norman dying; heavy rains continue over Texas
Tropical Depression Norman has been moving slowly up the Gulf of California near the tip of Baja, Mexico since it formed Friday afternoon, but has been torn apart by high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The storm will likely be declared dead later today. Moisture from Norman fed an extratropical storm over Texas, and contributed to heavy rains in West Texas that caused flooding and water rescues on Friday. Midland-Odessa, Texas, picked up 4.66” of rain on Friday, making it the wettest September day on record and 3rd wettest day in city history (wettest day in city history: August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.)


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Norman in the Gulf of California at 4:30 pm EDT Friday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Norman had top winds of 40 mph, and was spreading a large stream of moisture northeastward into Mexico and Texas. The remains of Hurricane Miriam are at the left of the image, along with a curious little vortex just north of Miriam's remains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall in West Texas due to the moisture associated with Tropical Storm Norman. Heavy rains in excess of 4" fell near Midland/Odessa, Big Spring, and San Angelo.


Figure 5. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, October 4, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman will bring heavy rains to much of the South. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Invest 96L is up to 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN

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Storm speeds out of Japan after injuring dozens
Associated Press – 4 hrs ago


High waves hit a breakwater in Kihocho, Mie prefecture, western Japan Sunday, Sept. 30, 2012. A powerful typhoon is heading to Tokyo after injuring dozens of people, causing blackouts and paralyzing traffic in southern Japan. (AP Photo/Kyodo News) JAPAN OUT, MANDATORY CREDIT, NO LICENSING IN CHINA, FRANCE, HONG KONG, JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA

TOKYO (AP) — A weakening tropical storm was speeding out of Japan on Monday after bringing gale-strength winds to Tokyo and injuring dozens of people, causing blackouts and paralyzing traffic to the south and west of the capital.

Japan's Meteorological Agency had warned Tokyo residents to stay indoors while Typhoon Jelawat passed Sunday night. The storm then had winds of up to 126 kilometers (78 miles) an hour but weakened to a tropical storm with 108 kph (67 mph) in the morning.

On Sunday, Nagoya city issued an evacuation advisory to more than 50,000 residents because of fear of flooding from a swollen river. A similar advisory was issued for more than 10,000 people in the northern city of Ishinomaki that was hit by last year's tsunami.

The typhoon left 145 people with minor injuries in southern and western Japan, about half of them on the southern island of Okinawa, public broadcaster NHK said. Tens of thousands of homes were without electricity.

Kyodo news agency reported one fatality, a man who was swept away by seawater while fishing in Okinawa.

Dozens of trains were halted in coastal areas around Tokyo and many stores inside the capital closed early Sunday as the storm approached. It is expected to move into the Pacific Ocean early Monday.
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Quoting Grothar:



Here, I have the runs.



In Army survival school we learned that a table spoon of wood ash helps to elevate symptoms of the runs.
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699. LBAR
Quoting Grothar:



Here, I have the runs.



This unexpectedly made me laugh.
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There are now 80 days left until the 2012 Winter Solstice.
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Quoting Grothar:


Well, one good thing. Daylight savings is over so we can stay up another hour.
ummmm....with respect for my elders, daylight savings time ends Sunday Nov. 4, this year. back to lurking..........
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I has been out of town for a few days,a lot of moisture in the Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico,please update me on what we can expect here in South Florida (Miami) from all this moisture,any tropical development??, looking at the models South Florida at the minimum is going to have a significant!!!!!! rain event in the next few days,also some of the models hints some type of development as the moisture blob cross Cuba.
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Quoting StAugustineFL:
I had a fair storm here this evening so thought I'd share. The not so very well set up camera is looking east and the garage insulated the sound of most of the thunder to the south and west (right and back from the camera)

Not much rain but it was a bit loud for a spell.


Link
I didn't listen/watch all the way through, but heard enough to realize people who do sound, like put sound on film for TV and movies, would love something like that. Just pieces of it, even. They goes nuts over silly things like a squeaky door. lol Anyway, keep up the good work.

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693. 7544
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Going to be interesting to see if all this rain for south Fla. comes to fruition.


if its from the blob over hati it may be deleyed the big red blob dosent seem to be moving that much from last night imo
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Fall Begins, But Cool Weather Still Off in the Distance for South Florida


Trust me... That's gonna change next week according to Larry Cosgrove and many other major mets!!!
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Quoting Skyepony:

Jamacia is getting drownt...Wish you had more coming at you.

Nice horse there Skyepony. What kind is it?
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Hope tonights Blob, stay away from Haiti, they don't need more rain....
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Sure everybody has seen this car blowing away in the wind

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Wx0ZzLqFUg&fe atur e=player_embedded


What is that in the center of the picture? Looks like a Helicopter on its side... Best I can come up with is a tow truck on its side.
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Quoting DDR:

Thanks and keep safe i'm off to bed.

Will do...have a good night!
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
914 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2012

.UPDATE...
A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH FROM CUBA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES. LATEST SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE MID AND LATE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE
GREATLY LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING, DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES DEPICTED AS HIGH AS 2.3
INCHES, AND WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR MAINLY THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. LATEST DAY
1 COMBINED QPF OUTPUT FROM HPC IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS
PREVIOUS FORECASTS BUT STILL PLACES THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN
AN AREA OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES OF RAIN. STILL BELIEVE LOCALIZED AREAS
COULD RECEIVE UP TO 1-3 INCHES AND WOULD LIKELY BE IN AREAS WITH
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS
AROUND 4 INCHES FOR THE METRO AREA AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO THE
NORTH.
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HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 74
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

NADINE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE RAGGED...AND
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN WARMING. THERE HAS ALSO
BEEN AN EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION...
WITH THE BULK OF WHAT REMAINS PIVOTING FROM WEST TO SOUTH AROUND
THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING...AND A BLEND
OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KT.
A SLOW BUT STEADY DECAY OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS AS NADINE ENCOUNTERS GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR AND THE
COLD WAKE THAT THE CYCLONE GENERATED YESTERDAY. FROM 24-72 HOURS...
A MARKED INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY SHEAR AND EVEN
COOLER WATERS COULD HASTEN THE WEAKENING TREND. PROHIBITIVELY HIGH
SHEAR AFTER 72 HOURS MIGHT RESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE STORM...
AND NADINE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER...IN 96
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT.

NADINE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN WHILE IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A
CYCLONIC LOOP...AND THE SHORT-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
230/06. THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE HEIGHTS TO RISE NORTH OF NADINE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN NADINE
SLOWING FURTHER AS IT HEADS BACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-
EASTWARD. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE WEAKENING STORM SHOULD TURN EASTWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
MOVING OUT OF ATLANTIC CANADA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST SINCE THE LAST CYCLE...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE TOWARD THE RIGHT...BUT
IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 36.7N 39.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 36.3N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 35.7N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 35.2N 37.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 35.4N 36.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 38.0N 31.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 44.6N 26.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/0000Z 50.0N 27.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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682. DDR
Quoting nigel20:

Hey DDR! Yes it is...the authorities may very well have to cancels school tomorrow if the rain persist.

Thanks and keep safe i'm off to bed.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 74
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

...NADINE SLOWING DOWN AS IT MAKES A COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.7N 39.4W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
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Quoting DDR:
Hello Nigel,it looks like raining non-stop in Jamaica?

Hey DDR! Yes it is...the authorities may very well have to cancels school tomorrow if the rain persist.
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Sure everybody has seen this car blowing away in the wind

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Wx0ZzLqFUg&featur e=player_embedded
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678. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Keeping out of trouble!
Saw the lightening over you, and watched it drift west.
It's been real dry here too...

Good to know,it was a very nice shower indeed.Yes that lightning was directing overhead.
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677. DDR
Hello Nigel,it looks like raining non-stop in Jamaica?
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Quoting DDR:

Lol to that pottery, how have you been?
Had a torrential downpour here today with gusty winds and lightening,first real rain in over 2 weeks.

Keeping out of trouble!
Saw the lightening over you, and watched it drift west.
It's been real dry here too...
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675. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Well, they dropped the 15% VAT on food already.
They have to come with a "sweetener budget" due to all the recent Bacchanal !

Lol to that pottery, how have you been?
Had a torrential downpour here today with gusty winds and lightening,first real rain in over 2 weeks.
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96L
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Going to be interesting to see if all this rain for south Fla. comes to fruition.


I might need a boat to get home tomorrow if it does.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TA13, I see plenty of moisture in the Caribbean and in part of Atlantic. Is the wet MJO back to the Atlantic basin?

Hey Tropics! We are currently under a flash flood warning here in Jamaica, but i'm not sure how much more rain we'll be getting.
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Quoting nigel20:

What are your expectations for the budget presentation tomorrow?

Well, they dropped the 15% VAT on food already.
They have to come with a "sweetener budget" due to all the recent Bacchanal !
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Going to be interesting to see if all this rain for south Fla. comes to fruition.
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TA13, I see plenty of moisture in the Caribbean and in part of Atlantic. Is the wet MJO back to the Atlantic basin?
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Quoting pottery:

Thanks, but we got 1/2" today, which was good enough.
Nice and gentle.

What are your expectations for the budget presentation tomorrow?
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Quoting nigel20:

I've been good. You?


I've been good too.
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Blob is getting bigger.

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Quoting Civicane49:


Yep.

How are you doing today?

I've been good. You?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I missed the Ed Sullivan Show playing on here tonight.


Well, one good thing. Daylight savings is over so we can stay up another hour.
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Quoting nigel20:

Hey Civicane! You can how heavy the rain is from the lime green colour over eastern Jamaica.


Yep.

How are you doing today?
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Quoting Skyepony:

Jamacia is getting drownt...Wish you had more coming at you.


Thanks, but we got 1/2" today, which was good enough.
Nice and gentle.
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660. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting pottery:

Thanks for that.

Jamacia is getting drownt...Wish you had more coming at you.

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659. Skyepony (Mod)
ESPI is 0.08..

Nadine
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Quoting Skyepony:
Rain Rate in/hr. Click pic for loop.

Thanks for that.
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Quoting Civicane49:

Hey Civicane! You can how heavy the rain is from the lime green colour over eastern Jamaica.
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I missed the Ed Sullivan Show playing on here tonight.
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655. Skyepony (Mod)
Rain Rate in/hr. Click pic for loop.
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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather