Jelawat hits Okinawa; TS Norman feeds heavy rains in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2012

Typhoon Jelawat slammed into Okinawa Saturday morning as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. The small 7-mile diameter eye tracked just west of the island from southwest to northeast, bringing the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant eyewall to much of Okinawa. Kadena Air Base recorded sustained 10-minute average winds of 85 mph at the peak of the storm, with a top wind gust of 115 mph. The Kadena Facebook page has some impressive videos and photos of the damage, which included flipped cars, downed trees, and damage to signs and buildings. Satellite loops and radar loops show that Jelawat has weakened considerably. Wind shear is up to a very high 40 knots, and the storm is over much cooler waters. Jelawat is likely to be a tropical storm at landfall Sunday on the main island of Honshu in Japan.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Okinawa at 12:30 am local time on September 29, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Video 1. Typhoon Jelawat in Okinawa as filmed by storm chaser James Reynolds.

Nadine still a hurricane
Tenacious Hurricane Nadine has entered its 17th day of life, and continues to mill about a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next five days. The latest model runs show Nadine becoming tangled up with an upper level low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday as the storm comes close to the Azores Islands. This should cause Nadine to become an extratropical cyclone again. Nadine is already in fourth place for longest-lived named tropical storm since 1950:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 9:12 am EDT Saturday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Norman dying; heavy rains continue over Texas
Tropical Depression Norman has been moving slowly up the Gulf of California near the tip of Baja, Mexico since it formed Friday afternoon, but has been torn apart by high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The storm will likely be declared dead later today. Moisture from Norman fed an extratropical storm over Texas, and contributed to heavy rains in West Texas that caused flooding and water rescues on Friday. Midland-Odessa, Texas, picked up 4.66” of rain on Friday, making it the wettest September day on record and 3rd wettest day in city history (wettest day in city history: August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.)


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Norman in the Gulf of California at 4:30 pm EDT Friday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Norman had top winds of 40 mph, and was spreading a large stream of moisture northeastward into Mexico and Texas. The remains of Hurricane Miriam are at the left of the image, along with a curious little vortex just north of Miriam's remains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall in West Texas due to the moisture associated with Tropical Storm Norman. Heavy rains in excess of 4" fell near Midland/Odessa, Big Spring, and San Angelo.


Figure 5. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, October 4, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman will bring heavy rains to much of the South. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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655. Skyepony (Mod)
Rain Rate in/hr. Click pic for loop.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
654. Skyepony (Mod)
Cloudsat of 96L
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Quoting pottery:

That will soon add up.....

Yeah definitely.

reports of flooding and landslides
Link
Link
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Oh, Im so sorry for you Gro, What'd you eat? Good luck with that...
I think he had bologna.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
This where I saw it.

The translation to that is 9.9 N and 29 W
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
This where I saw it.

LOL, thanks !

They must mean 9.9n, but good spotting.
I missed it !
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649. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Invest 96L!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209302321
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012093018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962012
AL, 96, 2012093018, , BEST, 0, 99N, 290W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
This where I saw it.
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Quoting Grothar:



Here, I have the runs.


Oh, Im so sorry for you Gro, What'd you eat? Good luck with that...
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Usually occurs with people of your age.

Yep, the body is failing.
The mind went a long time ago.
Sad, that.
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Quoting Grothar:



Here, I have the runs.



Thanks... fishy fishy :(
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Quoting nigel20:

We are currently having moderate rainfall, so i would say +1.5 inches per hour.

That will soon add up.....
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Quoting Grothar:



Here, I have the runs.



Usually occurs with people of your age.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
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Quoting pottery:

Any idea what the rain-rate is?

We are currently having moderate rainfall, so i would say +1.5 inches per hour.
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Where are the model runs (other than BAMs) on 96L?



Here, I have the runs.

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Quoting weatherxtreme:
96L looks to be a FISH! LOL


Original.


That's what they called Nadine...
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Quoting weatherxtreme:
96L looks to be a FISH! LOL

Oscar the Fish ?

Sounds all wrong, somehow....
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96L looks to be a FISH! LOL
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Where are the model runs (other than BAMs) on 96L?
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Quoting nigel20:

Yes it is, there is currently a flash flood warnning in place for the entire island...we are having a very impressive lightning show as well.

Any idea what the rain-rate is?
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Quoting pottery:

Yep, that looks heavy over Jamaica.

Yes it is, there is currently a flash flood warnning in place for the entire island...we are having a very impressive lightning show as well.
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Quoting Dakster:


Don't jump, life really is not that bad.



No, let him go.
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I has been out of town for a few days,a lot of moisture in the Caribbean sea and the Gulf of Mexico,please update me on what we can expect here in South Florida (Miami) from all this moisture,any tropical development??,it seems looking at the models that South Florida at the minimum is going to have a severe!! rain event in the next few days.
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Only 14 days till "The Walking Dead"!!


Nadine still hangin in there!
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Quoting nigel20:

Hey pottery! The rain has been pretty persistent over the last couple of hours...there may very well be more reports of landslides in the overnight period.

Yep, that looks heavy over Jamaica.
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628. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22
9:00 AM JST October 1 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 15.5N 113.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 16.0N 113.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


challenging... since 90 degrees north is the North Pole

That's what I thought.....
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Quoting pottery:

Getting some showers here too, Nigel.
Very welcomed.

Hey pottery! The rain has been pretty persistent over the last couple of hours...there may very well be more reports of landslides in the overnight period.
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Quoting pottery:

where are you seeing that ?


challenging... since 90 degrees north is the North Pole
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624. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #87
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM JELAWAT (T1217)
9:00 AM JST October 1 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Jelawat (990 hPa) located at 41.9N 144.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 40 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
325 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 47.4N 162.8E - Extratropical Cyclone Sea East Of Kurils
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
623. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21
9:00 AM JST October 1 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea Near Marianas Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 16.8N 148.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 20.4N 144.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Ogasawara waters

Additional Information
=====================

From The Tiyan NWS in Guam... A Tropical Storm Warning in now in effect of Alamagan.. Pagan.. Agrihan Island
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all! We have been getting quite a bit of rain over the last couple of days,y so any drought or rainfall deficit would have been mostly wiped out....this is quite typical, as September to October is usually the wettest period in most of Jamaica. There have been isolated reports of flooding and landslides, but this could increase as the rain continues.

Getting some showers here too, Nigel.
Very welcomed.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
99N?
That assures an interesting cyclone.
I can't recall one forming that far North....

where are you seeing that ?
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Good evening all! We have been getting quite a bit of rain over the last couple of days,y so any drought or rainfall deficit would have been mostly wiped out....this is quite typical, as September to October is usually the wettest period in most of Jamaica. There have been isolated reports of flooding and landslides, but this could increase as the rain continues.
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Quoting Dakster:


Don't jump, life really is not that bad.

yet....
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99N?
That assures an interesting cyclone.
I can't recall one forming that far North....
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Quoting Grothar:


I couldn't help that one, Washi! There looks like every night that thing wants to flare-up down there. A lot of rain for somebody.


Preparation H will help that...
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Quoting pottery:

Family blog....
Stop Pottery.Mind images are starting to appear!.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
A whole lotta mess..but nothing going on.


Indeed correct conditions across the gulf and most of the caribbean are extremely hostile for development. Convection on satellite across western caribbean is being sparked buy an upper level low in the vicinity. Looks real wet across southern Florida next few days as deep tropical moisture spreads over area.
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Temperature

80.7 F

Feels Like 88 F
Daytona Beach area 9 p.m.
still hot n humid here

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Quoting Grothar:


I couldn't help that one, Washi! There looks like every night that thing wants to flare-up down there. A lot of rain for somebody.

Family blog....
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If anyone wants to see Nadine's full track...
Link
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Quoting Grothar:


I couldn't help that one, Washi! There looks like every night that thing wants to flare-up down there. A lot of rain for somebody.
Well I would say bring it up here but I've been getting a good dose of rain so don't need no extras!.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I'm going back on the roof.


Don't jump, life really is not that bad.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Did you see the 12z GFS run, it had snow in lower MI.


Should be interesting to see how that plays out.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
See the blob how big it grows
But man, as everybody knows,
It's just a cloud.

Filled with swirling rain and stuff
Coming down with ice and fluff,
As Grothar shows.

But don't believe it's over yet,
People will become very wet
And winds will blow,

And every blob from everywhere
Creates panic, doubt and fear
As Grothar knows.

But Honey, I'm begin'
Give us just one more storm,
We been waiting for ages
Wer'e tired of the norm.
We need a good tempest
To straighten us out
And if we don't get one
Yuh better watch out.



....I saw it first
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Quoting Grothar:


Does your balogna have a first name?


Children come on this blog.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
See the blob how big it grows
But man, as everybody knows,
It's just a cloud.

Filled with swirling rain and stuff
Coming down with ice and fluff,
As Grothar shows.

But don't believe it's over yet,
People will become very wet
And winds will blow,

And every blob from everywhere
Creates panic, doubt and fear
As Grothar knows.

But Honey, I'm begin'
Give us just one more storm,
We been waiting for ages
Wer'e tired of the norm.
We need a good tempest
To straighten us out
And if we don't get one
Yuh better watch out.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol Gro.I already had to deal with one psychopath Gro.Are you next?.J/K but you would think the MJO is here with all that action going on down there.This is the most thunderstorm activity I've seen in the caribbean since June.


I couldn't help that one, Washi! There looks like every night that thing wants to flare-up down there. A lot of rain for somebody.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather