Jelawat hits Okinawa; TS Norman feeds heavy rains in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2012

Typhoon Jelawat slammed into Okinawa Saturday morning as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. The small 7-mile diameter eye tracked just west of the island from southwest to northeast, bringing the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant eyewall to much of Okinawa. Kadena Air Base recorded sustained 10-minute average winds of 85 mph at the peak of the storm, with a top wind gust of 115 mph. The Kadena Facebook page has some impressive videos and photos of the damage, which included flipped cars, downed trees, and damage to signs and buildings. Satellite loops and radar loops show that Jelawat has weakened considerably. Wind shear is up to a very high 40 knots, and the storm is over much cooler waters. Jelawat is likely to be a tropical storm at landfall Sunday on the main island of Honshu in Japan.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Okinawa at 12:30 am local time on September 29, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Video 1. Typhoon Jelawat in Okinawa as filmed by storm chaser James Reynolds.

Nadine still a hurricane
Tenacious Hurricane Nadine has entered its 17th day of life, and continues to mill about a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next five days. The latest model runs show Nadine becoming tangled up with an upper level low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday as the storm comes close to the Azores Islands. This should cause Nadine to become an extratropical cyclone again. Nadine is already in fourth place for longest-lived named tropical storm since 1950:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 9:12 am EDT Saturday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Norman dying; heavy rains continue over Texas
Tropical Depression Norman has been moving slowly up the Gulf of California near the tip of Baja, Mexico since it formed Friday afternoon, but has been torn apart by high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The storm will likely be declared dead later today. Moisture from Norman fed an extratropical storm over Texas, and contributed to heavy rains in West Texas that caused flooding and water rescues on Friday. Midland-Odessa, Texas, picked up 4.66” of rain on Friday, making it the wettest September day on record and 3rd wettest day in city history (wettest day in city history: August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.)


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Norman in the Gulf of California at 4:30 pm EDT Friday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Norman had top winds of 40 mph, and was spreading a large stream of moisture northeastward into Mexico and Texas. The remains of Hurricane Miriam are at the left of the image, along with a curious little vortex just north of Miriam's remains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall in West Texas due to the moisture associated with Tropical Storm Norman. Heavy rains in excess of 4" fell near Midland/Odessa, Big Spring, and San Angelo.


Figure 5. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, October 4, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman will bring heavy rains to much of the South. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol Gro.I already had to deal with one psychopath Gro.Are you next?.J/K but you would think the MJO is here with all that action going on down there.This is the most thunderstorm activity I've seen in the caribbean since June.


I couldn't help that one, Washi! There looks like every night that thing wants to flare-up down there. A lot of rain for somebody.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Not all the models have 96L moving that quickly out North. I would like to wait a few days to see what the new one predict.
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Quoting Grothar:


A whole lotta mess...but nothing going on.
Lol Gro.I already had to deal with one psychopath Gro.Are you next?.J/K but you would think the MJO is here with all that action going on down there.This is the most thunderstorm activity I've seen in the caribbean since June.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


How dare you say that about Oscar. That's just a bunch of bologna.


Does your balogna have a first name?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I have done my detailed tropical update for the day...just hot-off-the-press...

See Nadine special feature section for an explanation of how she strengthened in the last day...and what her future could hold. Not looking good for the Azores...a 2nd strike now appears likely thanks to her current looping. She could maintain some of her vigor when she strikes the Azores again as she will be transitioning into a non-tropical cyclone supported by upper divergence...

See paragraph P6 for info on the messy Caribbean weather...and paragraph P8 for the E Atlc tropical wave (which just got upgraded to 96-L while I was writing the update)
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Quoting pottery:

Nah, man.
It's Oscar you are talking about.

He going to raise the lid of the trash-can, quarrel with everyone and be a real pain in the neck.


How dare you say that about Oscar. That's just a bunch of bologna.
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Quoting Slamguitar:


Actually, on Saturday it has 0.01 in of snow forecasted for me. :P

Did you see the 12z GFS run, it had snow in lower MI.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:


A whole lotta mess...but nothing going on.
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Quoting Grothar:
A whole lotta mess..but nothing going on.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Pfft, stop wearing shorts this early for me. I begin to wear pants when it snows and shorts all the other times.


Actually, on Saturday it has 0.01 in of snow forecasted for me. :P
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
WHXX01 KWBC 010029
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0029 UTC MON OCT 1 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20121001 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121001 0000 121001 1200 121002 0000 121002 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 30.0W 10.4N 31.7W 11.5N 33.5W 12.6N 35.5W
BAMD 10.0N 30.0W 10.5N 31.9W 11.5N 33.5W 12.7N 35.1W
BAMM 10.0N 30.0W 10.6N 31.9W 11.6N 33.8W 12.8N 35.6W
LBAR 10.0N 30.0W 10.6N 32.1W 11.6N 34.4W 12.7N 36.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121003 0000 121004 0000 121005 0000 121006 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 37.8W 17.0N 42.1W 19.4N 44.1W 21.3N 40.9W
BAMD 14.1N 36.4W 16.8N 38.7W 19.1N 38.3W 22.0N 32.7W
BAMM 14.1N 37.3W 16.9N 40.4W 19.7N 41.1W 22.9N 36.0W
LBAR 13.9N 39.2W 15.6N 43.5W 16.9N 45.7W 19.3N 44.4W
SHIP 47KTS 54KTS 53KTS 52KTS
DSHP 47KTS 54KTS 53KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 30.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 28.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 26.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



FISH .... and still no rain for us!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I had a fair storm here this evening so thought I'd share. The not so very well set up camera is looking east and the garage insulated the sound of most of the thunder to the south and west (right and back from the camera)

Not much rain but it was a bit loud for a spell.


Link
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Quoting CaribBoy:


I havent even seen the model runs... but BUT ALREADY KNOW IT WILL BE A BORING FISH. 2012 it is...

Nah, man.
It's Oscar you are talking about.

He going to raise the lid of the trash-can, quarrel with everyone and be a real pain in the neck.
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Quoting Patrap:
Somebody just earned a permanent wu-cation seems.

LoL




OH?
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Quoting Slamguitar:
I've got a decent cool down coming. Might have to stop wearing shorts and sandals soon, haha.


Pfft, stop wearing shorts this early for me. I begin to wear pants when it snows and shorts all the other times.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Invest 96L!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209302321
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012093018, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962012
AL, 96, 2012093018, , BEST, 0, 99N, 290W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


I havent even seen the model runs... but BUT ALREADY KNOW IT WILL BE A BORING FISH. 2012 it is...
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Is Nadine really weakening for good?.Because she has been known to come back and make a few surprises..

Yeah, if conditions allow, Nadine might re-regenerate after it becomes post-tropical!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Is Nadine really weakening for good?.Because she has been known to come back and make a few surprises..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
WHXX01 KWBC 010029
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0029 UTC MON OCT 1 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20121001 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121001 0000 121001 1200 121002 0000 121002 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 30.0W 10.4N 31.7W 11.5N 33.5W 12.6N 35.5W
BAMD 10.0N 30.0W 10.5N 31.9W 11.5N 33.5W 12.7N 35.1W
BAMM 10.0N 30.0W 10.6N 31.9W 11.6N 33.8W 12.8N 35.6W
LBAR 10.0N 30.0W 10.6N 32.1W 11.6N 34.4W 12.7N 36.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121003 0000 121004 0000 121005 0000 121006 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 37.8W 17.0N 42.1W 19.4N 44.1W 21.3N 40.9W
BAMD 14.1N 36.4W 16.8N 38.7W 19.1N 38.3W 22.0N 32.7W
BAMM 14.1N 37.3W 16.9N 40.4W 19.7N 41.1W 22.9N 36.0W
LBAR 13.9N 39.2W 15.6N 43.5W 16.9N 45.7W 19.3N 44.4W
SHIP 47KTS 54KTS 53KTS 52KTS
DSHP 47KTS 54KTS 53KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 30.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 28.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 9.6N LONM24 = 26.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
00z Best Track for 96L.

AL, 96, 2012100100, , BEST, 0, 100N, 300W, 25, 1008, LO
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I've got a decent cool down coming. Might have to stop wearing shorts and sandals soon, haha.



I just realized there is the tiniest bit of blue in that precip field. 0.01in of snow on Saturday? Bring it on old man winter!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The ignore, minus, and flag features come in handy at a time like this.

Nadine is beginning to make the expected turn and she looks to have possibly peaked. This may be the decay of Nadine. I am writing a blog about the about the longest lived Atlantic storms and will post it in a few hours at the most.
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Quoting Patrap:
Weak minds and bad spelling is a sure sign of mental issues.

Off to the Neutral Ground for Music and fun.

Da front has passed and its nice.


Had some nice showers and a cooler day here too.
Great lightshow over the Venezuelan peninsula at sunset. Fantastic orange sky with lights...
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Hey look! Weather!

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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Me!! LOL
But there's nothing new. There's only the 18-day old Nadine in the tropics.

Hmm... here in South Korea it is getting cooler as autumn begins.
The tree colors around here were beautiful when I went out for a drive today.Took a few photos.Lovely they were!.This why I like this type of weather.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't quote the troll. It'll get you banned.

The troll has disrupted the blog enough as it is, which is what was intended. Just report, flag, and move on.

Actually, I did flag. And just in case, I erased the quote.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Weak minds and bad spelling is a sure sign of mental issues.

Off to the Neutral Ground for Music and fun.

Da front has passed and its nice.

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Look at that spin develop! 96L.



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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Hey, enough with your foul language.


Please don't quote the troll. Just flag, ignore, and move on.


Now back to weather.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Weather anyone?.

Me!! LOL
But there's nothing new. There's only the 18-day old Nadine in the tropics.

Hmm... here in South Korea it is getting cooler as autumn begins.
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Quoting pottery:

You might join him if yer not careful....


Responding to these type of posts are futile.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Hey, enough with your foul language.

Don't quote the troll. It'll get you banned.

The troll has disrupted the blog enough as it is, which is what was intended. Just report, flag, and move on.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Weather anyone?.

Bobbyweather please don't quote them I have them in ignore
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Quoting baltimorebirdsisback:

Ignored.
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I'm going back on the roof.
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Ignore and ! - really comes to mind in these situations.Trolls will be trolls...Seriously trying to play people?.Really disturbing.BTW if you can still see me I've been blocked your e-mails.Be gone!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I put together a rather unique blog entry tonight. Enjoy.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not gonna even bother quoting.Really uncalled for.Stop trolling and trying to take the place of a old blogger and playing with peoples mind.People like you make me sick

You might join him if yer not careful....
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Nadine's convection has decreased a little over the past several hours.

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This is what I mean by taking advantage of the water UP TO THE LAST DROP!

H 5, 1906
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather