Jelawat hits Okinawa; TS Norman feeds heavy rains in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:55 PM GMT on September 29, 2012

Typhoon Jelawat slammed into Okinawa Saturday morning as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. The small 7-mile diameter eye tracked just west of the island from southwest to northeast, bringing the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant eyewall to much of Okinawa. Kadena Air Base recorded sustained 10-minute average winds of 85 mph at the peak of the storm, with a top wind gust of 115 mph. The Kadena Facebook page has some impressive videos and photos of the damage, which included flipped cars, downed trees, and damage to signs and buildings. Satellite loops and radar loops show that Jelawat has weakened considerably. Wind shear is up to a very high 40 knots, and the storm is over much cooler waters. Jelawat is likely to be a tropical storm at landfall Sunday on the main island of Honshu in Japan.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Jelawat over Okinawa at 12:30 am local time on September 29, 2012. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.


Video 1. Typhoon Jelawat in Okinawa as filmed by storm chaser James Reynolds.

Nadine still a hurricane
Tenacious Hurricane Nadine has entered its 17th day of life, and continues to mill about a few hundred miles southwest of the Azores Islands. Nadine is not expected to be a threat to any land areas for the next five days. The latest model runs show Nadine becoming tangled up with an upper level low pressure system on Wednesday and Thursday as the storm comes close to the Azores Islands. This should cause Nadine to become an extratropical cyclone again. Nadine is already in fourth place for longest-lived named tropical storm since 1950:

1) Ginger, 1971: 21.25 named storm days
2) Carrie, 1957: 19.5 named storm days
3) Alberto, 2000: 19.25 named storm days
4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days

The all-time record is held by the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899, which had 28 named storm days.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Nadine taken at 9:12 am EDT Saturday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Nadine had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Tropical Depression Norman dying; heavy rains continue over Texas
Tropical Depression Norman has been moving slowly up the Gulf of California near the tip of Baja, Mexico since it formed Friday afternoon, but has been torn apart by high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The storm will likely be declared dead later today. Moisture from Norman fed an extratropical storm over Texas, and contributed to heavy rains in West Texas that caused flooding and water rescues on Friday. Midland-Odessa, Texas, picked up 4.66” of rain on Friday, making it the wettest September day on record and 3rd wettest day in city history (wettest day in city history: August 24th, 1934, when 5.32” fell.)


Figure 3. Tropical Storm Norman in the Gulf of California at 4:30 pm EDT Friday, September 29, 2012. At the time, Norman had top winds of 40 mph, and was spreading a large stream of moisture northeastward into Mexico and Texas. The remains of Hurricane Miriam are at the left of the image, along with a curious little vortex just north of Miriam's remains. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 4. Radar-estimated rainfall in West Texas due to the moisture associated with Tropical Storm Norman. Heavy rains in excess of 4" fell near Midland/Odessa, Big Spring, and San Angelo.


Figure 5. Predicted rainfall totals for the 5-day period ending at 8 am EDT Thursday, October 4, 2012. Moisture from the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Norman will bring heavy rains to much of the South. Image credit: NOAA/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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idk why you are all writing off the season so fast the past few Octobers have all seen a few hurricanes in the Caribbean, and we've already seen a hurricane in the Caribbean I would expect at least one more storm there plus another extropical origin storm or two
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Quoting LargoFl:
great article there, but they are forgetting, in the tens of billions of planets, who is to say LIFE has to be as WE know Life..suppose there are lifeforms who dont Need the sun, nor air, nor water etc as we do..tens of billions of planets out there in billions of miles of space..who can be sure WHAT life is in the rest of the universe, one so vast humans may never see the outer limits of it..and possibly this isnt the Only universe..whew


I've always thought that as well...and scientists, I always thought, would/should think of it in that way. They have discovered organisms on Earth that live in conditions otherwise inhospitable to 'life'. So surely, the possibilities are endless.
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One would think that in this brave new world of AGW that we wouldn't have such early ending seasons.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
If I were a rich man,
Ya ha deedle deedle, bubba bubba deedle deedle dum.



Geoff, get off that roof right now. Your too old to be up there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I see i missed this :
Radar Analysis of a (Possible) Developing Tornado

This afternoon a thunderstorm over southern Mississippi underwent an evolution that is often associated with tornado occurrence in thunderstorms. Whether or not a tornado developed remains to be seen, but the radar evolution was fairly classic. What .............

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If I were a rich man,
Ya ha deedle deedle, bubba bubba deedle deedle dum.

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Quoting padredejonas:
Maybe not the nicest first comment to interesting website contents like these, but I am just wondering why on the one hand "Nadine has entered its 17th day of life" is written, and on the other hand "4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days". To me it looks as if she has completed 17 days and entered her 18th day.


I guess in a "Utopian" world you might be correct, or it was written yesterday. "The Giver" of the information isn't always correct all the time.
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Quoting Astrometeor:


Come on, harsh winter for south. With lots of snow. Christmas snow too would be greatly appreciated.


Don't I wish!
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Quoting Slamguitar:
Ah, when the tropics start to die down (IMO we have at least 1-2 more storms) that's when I'm glad to live somewhere that gets all four seasons. Bring on the snow!!!

I'll still stick with my thinking of 1-2 more storms, but I'm slowly losing just a little confidence in it. Luckily we both live in a 4 season area where we both get snow.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Ah, when the tropics start to die down (IMO we have at least 1-2 more storms) that's when I'm glad to live somewhere that gets the full force of all four seasons. Bring on the snow!!! 100 inches WHOOP WHOOP!!!
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Quoting KoritheMan:
At this point I wouldn't be surprised if the season ended after Nadine. The only reason I'm even saying otherwise is because of the possibility of the MJO swinging back in, which could help to generate a Caribbean storm, but as we've seen before, MJO forecasts can be rather lacking. There's also the potential for a couple high-latitude spinups, but those are difficult to predict anyways.

I'd be a little disappointed if Nadine was our last hurrah, but it is what it is I suppose.


Other then another spin up similar to Nadine I'd say the season is just about over. Possibility of some climo based western Carib development around mid October but not holding breath.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The wave with 10% now has a low added on the 18z Surface analysis.


Well the NHC said that the environment is favorable for gradual development, a first this year it seems, so we could see development. The wave is looking ok for where it is right now but I am unsure on whether it actually develops.
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Maybe not the nicest first comment to interesting website contents like these, but I am just wondering why on the one hand "Nadine has entered its 17th day of life" is written, and on the other hand "4) Nadine, 2012: 17.0 named storm days". To me it looks as if she has completed 17 days and entered her 18th day.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
May be the next TS

That model is known to develop things to quickly.I don't think the wave in the east Atlantic will develop that fast.
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Rain.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This looks really bad... I haven't seen anything major confirmed but I don't see how there couldn't be a tornado down with this:


Yeah there is some pretty strong rotation and most likely a tornado with that storm, and hopefully everyone is safe.
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May be the next TS

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The wave with 10% now has a low added on the 18z Surface analysis.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
446 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

MSC111-131-302215-
/O.CON.KMOB.TO.W.0067.000000T0000Z-120930T2215Z/
STONE MS-PERRY MS-
446 PM CDT SUN SEP 30 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL PERRY AND NORTH CENTRAL STONE COUNTIES...

AT 446 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION AND LIKELY
PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF WIGGINS...OR 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF PERKINSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL SOUTH CENTRAL PERRY COUNTY
RURAL NORTH CENTRAL STONE COUNTY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL (800) 284-9059.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3081 8905 3084 8909 3100 8902 3089 8891
3086 8896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 214DEG 13KT 3084 8905
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Cell seems to be moving NE at a pretty good clip.

Couple tor reports as of now.
2034 12 SW SAUCIER HARRISON MS 3051 8928
HARRISON COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT RELAYED REPORTS FROM 911 CALLS OF A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ON CEMETERY ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY 53. (LIX)

2125 MCHENRY STONE MS 3071 8914
AMATEUR RADIO REPORTING ROOF DAMAGE ALONG WITH TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN MCHENRY (MOB)
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This looks really bad... I haven't seen anything major confirmed but I don't see how there couldn't be a tornado down with this:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No doubt in my mind this is producing a tornado. It has already produced several in the past hour or two.


That's been a very long track storm. I think it's the same one I posted on at the top of the page.
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I'm smiling over here :).Where are the tampians.

Aaaaaaand the blog is dead...
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No doubt in my mind this is producing a tornado. It has already produced several in the past hour or two.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
At this point I wouldn't be surprised if the season ended after Nadine. The only reason I'm even saying otherwise is because of the possibility of the MJO swinging back in, which could help to generate a Caribbean storm, but as we've seen before, MJO forecasts can be rather lacking. There's also the potential for a couple high-latitude spinups, but those are difficult to predict anyways.

I'd be a little disappointed if Nadine was our last hurrah, but it is what it is I suppose.
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The wave with 10% now has a low added on the 18z Surface analysis.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
479. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What was once 140-knot Super Typhoon Jelawat is no more.

REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 40.0N 143.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS ACCELERATED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 39 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TS 18W IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND ALMOST VOID OF CONVECTION AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS UNRAVELED AND BECOME RAGGED. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A COLD CORE
LOW AFTER IT EXITS HONSHU INTO THE COLD SEA OF JAPAN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. //
NNNN



Once a man, twice a child.
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My team is playing against Tampa today.If we win I'm gonna have a lot of mad Tampaians at me.Duck for cover!. 7 my team to 3 Tampa.
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Quoting Patrap:
Nadine? Honey is dat you ?


OMG, that was beautiful.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Some floridians were discussing how their palm trees were dying from the cold.So they wouldn't appreciate it that much :D.


Oh, well if I can get snow and they can be nice and warm, then I will be fine with that. I just hate missing school when the last time we had snow on the ground was two days prior. (last year we were out for a week)
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Nadine? Honey is dat you ?
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...NADINE PERFORMING LOOP-THE-LOOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...
5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 30
Location: 37.2N 39.2W
Moving: WNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 978 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 37.2N 39.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 37.0N 39.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 36.2N 39.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 35.7N 38.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 35.5N 37.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 37.0N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 43.5N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 49.5N 26.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 73
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

...NADINE PERFORMING LOOP-THE-LOOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.2N 39.2W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
great article there, but they are forgetting, in the tens of billions of planets, who is to say LIFE has to be as WE know Life..suppose there are lifeforms who dont Need the sun, nor air, nor water etc as we do..tens of billions of planets out there in billions of miles of space..who can be sure WHAT life is in the rest of the universe, one so vast humans may never see the outer limits of it..and possibly this isnt the Only universe..whew


Terance Mckenna was right.

The Machine Elves "under the Dome" run everything.

There are now 81 Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting all4hurricanes:
is the new update on Nadine out yet?

Not yet, be patient as it should be out in any minute.
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is the new update on Nadine out yet?
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Quoting Astrometeor:


Come on, harsh winter for south. With lots of snow. Christmas snow too would be greatly appreciated.
Some floridians were discussing how their palm trees were dying from the cold.So they wouldn't appreciate it that much :D.
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I've been noticing that the GFS is pretty consistent with showing troughs coming down and cooling us off. This was from the 12z run, it is a while out but we are getting toward that time:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting LesBonsTemps:

Sorry I don't have the source for the following, which was published earlier this year:

According to a recent study, tens of billions of planets
around red dwarfs
are likely capable of containing liquid water,
dramatically increasing the potential to find signs of life somewhere other
than Earth.

Red dwarfs are stars that are fainter, cooler
and less massive than the sun. These stars, which typically also live longer
than Class G stars like the sun, are thought to make up about 80 percent of the
stars in the Milky Way, astronomers have said.



Red dwarfs generally have not been considered viable candidates for
hosting habitable planets
. Since red dwarfs are small and dim, the habitable zone surrounding them %u2014 the region where an
orbiting planet's surface water can remain liquid %u2014 is relatively close to
them.

"The habitable zone would be very, very small. Consequently, the
chances that you would actually find any planet at the right distance from the
sun to be attractive to life was likely to be small, too," said Seth Shostak, a senior astronomer at the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute in Mountain View, Calif. [The Strangest
Alien Planets
]

But the study, based on data from the European Space Agency's HARPS
spectrograph in Chile, used a sample of 102 red dwarfs to estimate that 41
percent of the dim stars might be hiding planets in their habitable zone.

"The number of habitats might increase by a factor of 8 or 10,"
Shostak told SPACE.com.


great article there, but they are forgetting, in the tens of billions of planets, who is to say LIFE has to be as WE know Life..suppose there are lifeforms who dont Need the sun, nor air, nor water etc as we do..tens of billions of planets out there in billions of miles of space..who can be sure WHAT life is in the rest of the universe, one so vast humans may never see the outer limits of it..and possibly this isnt the Only universe..whew
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What was once 140-knot Super Typhoon Jelawat is no more.

REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 40.0N 143.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS ACCELERATED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 39 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED
RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TS 18W IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND ALMOST VOID OF CONVECTION AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
HAS UNRAVELED AND BECOME RAGGED. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A COLD CORE
LOW AFTER IT EXITS HONSHU INTO THE COLD SEA OF JAPAN OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. //
NNNN

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Civicane49:
thank your stars this isnt january, would be feet of snow on the ground huh
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yay!.Looking forward.Seems the eastern 2/3 of the country are in for a harsh winter especially the mid-west.


Come on, harsh winter for south. With lots of snow. Christmas snow too would be greatly appreciated.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
New 1 month outlook has been relased by the CPC, and it really reflects what I said the other day: Troughs and cold shots for many, with heat for the west and Alaska:



6-10 days looks very cold for most:



And then it spreads east:

Yay!.Looking forward.Seems the eastern 2/3 of the country are in for a harsh winter especially the mid-west.
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Looks like we've got a tornado watch (parts of LA and MS). This is something I speculated on my blog yesterday...

"P1...In the last 36 hours...deep-layered vortex over SE Wyoming has merged with next upper trough in the mid-latitude westerlies. This upper trough is already splitting...with the northern half driving a W Canada frontal cyclone (cyclone's warm front marked in top-center of above atmo chart) whose warm air advection is driving an upper anticyclone over Manitoba. Southern half of upper trough is over the western US...which has sheared off a great bulk of moisture from Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Norman into the SW US upper ridge. Latent heat release from this moisture amplified the SW US upper ridge while the upper ridge has shifted across Texas and N Mexico. Along the front trailing from the NE US 1012 mb low (mentioned in paragraph P2)...split flow upper divergence between this amplified upper ridge and west US upper trough is driving a new and impressive frontal cyclone over Texas. With the immense moisture from Norman wrapped into this frontal cyclone...flood watches are posted across south Texas...spreading into Louisiana and Mississippi. For the next couple of days...potential exists for flood watches to continue spreading across the US Gulf coast region and SE US. Southerly flow ahead of the frontal cyclone will be in directional vertical shear with respect to westerly flow across the upper ridge...so if enough instability develops from daytime heating...severe t-storm and or tornado watches may also be required in the next couple of days."
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I really would not want to be under this right now:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather