Which Hurricane Forecast Model Should You Trust?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:05 PM GMT on August 07, 2013

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) set a new record in 2012 for accuracy of their 1, 2, 3, and 4-day Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts, but had almost no skill making intensity forecasts, according to the 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report, issued in March 2013. The new records for track accuracy were set despite the fact that the season’s storms were harder than average to forecast. The average error in a 1-day forecast was 46 miles, and was 79 miles for 2 days, 116 miles for 3 days, 164 miles for 4 days, and 224 miles for 5 days. The official track forecast had a westward bias of 10 - 17 miles for 1 - 3 day forecasts (i.e., the official forecast tended to fall to the west of the verifying position), and was 38 and 75 miles too far to the northeast for the 4- and 5-day forecasts, respectively.


Figure 1. Verification of official NHC hurricane track forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2012. Over the past 15 - 20 years, 1 - 3 day track forecast errors have been reduced by about 60%. Track forecast error reductions of about 50% have occurred over the past ten years for 4- and 5-day forecasts. Image credit: 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

NHC Intensity Forecasts: Little Improvement Since 1990
Official NHC intensity forecasts did better than usual in 2012, and had errors lower than the 5-year average error for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. However, 2012's storms were easier to predict than usual, due to due to a lack of rapidly intensifying hurricanes. These rapid intensifiers are typically the source of the largest forecast errors. The skill of official NHC 24-hour intensity forecasts made in 2012 for the Atlantic basin were only about 15% better than a "no-skill" forecast; 2, 3, 4, and 5-day intensity forecasts had no skill.


Figure 2. Verification of official NHC hurricane intensity forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2012. Intensity forecasts have shown little to no improvement since 1990. Image credit: 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

Which Track Model Should You Trust?
As usual, in 2012 the official NHC forecast for Atlantic storms was almost as good as or better than any individual computer models--though NOAA's GFS model did slightly better than the NHC official forecast at 12, 24, and 48-hour periods, and the European model forecast was slightly better at 12-hour forecasts. Despite all the attention given to how the European Center (ECMWF) model outperformed the GFS model for Hurricane Sandy's track at long ranges, the GFS model actually outperformed the European model in 2012 when summing up all track forecasts made for all Atlantic named storms. This occurred, in part, because the European model made a few disastrously bad forecasts for Tropical Storm Debby when it was in the Gulf of Mexico and steering currents were weak. For several runs, the model predicted a Texas landfall, but Debby ended up moving east-northeast to make a Northwest Florida landfall, like the GFS model had predicted. However, the best-performing model averaged over the past three years has been the European Center model, with the GFS model a close second. Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing track models used to predict hurricane tracks. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on this page. Here are some of the better models NHC regularly looks at:

ECMWF: The European Center's global forecast model
GFS: NOAA's global forecast model
NOGAPS: The Navy's global forecast model (now defunct, replaced by the NAVGEM model in 2013)
UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office's global forecast model
GFDL: The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's hurricane model, initialized using GFS data
HWRF: The intended successor for the the GFDL hurricane model, also initialized using GFS data
CMC: The Canadian GEM model
BAMM: The very old Beta and Advection Model (Medium layer), which is still useful at longer ranges

If one averages together the track forecasts from the first six of these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it. As seen in Figure 3, the HWRF and UKMET were well behind the ECMWF and GFS in forecast accuracy in 2012, but were still respectable. The simple BAMM model did well at 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. The GFDL and CMC models did quite poorly compared to the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and HWRF. The Navy's NOGAPS model also did poorly in 2012, and has been retired. Its replacement for 2013 is called the NAVGEM model.


Figure 3. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2012, compared to a "no skill" model called "CLIPER5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence means that a storm will tend to keep going in the direction it's current going.) OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCA=one of the consensus models that lends together several of the above models; CMC=Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM) model; BAMM=Beta Advection Model (Medium depth.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2012 verification report.

Which Intensity Model Should You Trust?
Don't trust any of them. NHC has two main statistical intensity models, LGEM and DSHP (the SHIPS model with inland decay of a storm factored in.) In addition, four dynamical models that are also use to track hurricanes--the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and GFDL models--all offer intensity forecasts. With the exception of the GFS model, which had a skill just 5% better than a "no-skill" intensity forecast for predictions going out 36 hours, all of these models had no skill in their intensity forecasts during 2012. The ECMWF and HWRF models were the worst models for intensity forecasts of 3, 4, and 5 days, with a skill of 20% - 60% lower than a "no-skill" forecast. The LGEM model, which was a decent intensity model in 2011, tanked badly in 2012 and had near-zero skill. The only model that was any good in 2012 was the IVCN "consensus" model, which averages together the intensity forecasts of two or more of the intensity models such as LGEM, GFDL, HWRF, and DSHP.

Some Promising Models From the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)
Last year was the fourth year of a ten-year project, called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), aimed at reducing hurricane track and intensity errors by 50%. The new experimental models from HFIP generally performed poorly in 2012. However, the new FIM9 15-km global model was competitive with the ECMWF and GFS models for track, and the new CIRA Statistical Intensity Consensus (SPC3) model for intensity performed better than many of the traditional intensity models.

For those interested in learning more about the hurricane forecast models, NOAA has a 1-hour training video (updated for 2011.) Additional information about the guidance models used at the NHC can be found at NHC and the NOAA/HRD Hurricane FAQ.

Sources of Model Data
You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on wunderground's wundermap with the model layer turned on.
Longer ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site.
FSU's experimental hurricane forecast page (CMC, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM models)
NOAA's HFIP model comparison page (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, FIM9, UKMET, and CMC models.)
Experimental HFIP models

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. I plan on having a detailed update on Friday to discuss the latest long-range forecasts for the coming peak part of hurricane season.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Recurving 'Hurricane Erin' at the end.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1385. ncstorm










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According to the latest GFS might get one of these 2001 Hurricane Gabrielle:



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1370. Waltanater:
There hasn't been a CAT 5 Hurricane in the last 6 years. I think we are well overdue for one or two.
Last one was in 2007, right?


Yup - that storm's replacement name is up after the next one.
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1382. bwi


The most interesting storm this week for me has been the strong low pressure system near the north pole.

Last year at about this time in August, a very large and deep cyclone formed in the high Arctic, and it probably led pretty directly to the record setting sea ice loss.

This year, the sea ice loss has been considerably less than last year, although it is still running about 2 standard deviations below "normal" based on the 30 year trend.

Moreover, these storms can have complex effects -- earlier this melt season a couple of storms affected the Arctic and seemed to slow down the melting due to colder air and more cloudiness during the peak summer insolation period.

However, based on satellite sensors and photos, the ice in many places seems to be rather weak and scattered and slushy this year, so even though there's more of it, it could be very vulnerable to a big storm. The storm may bring cold air and reduce surface melt, but by churning up the sea and bring up (relatively) warm water from below, the ice could melt more quickly from below.

Time will tell. I tend to agree with Dr. Masters that rapid overall heating in the Arctic over the last couple decades is affecting jet stream patterns and the sensible weather over lots of the northern hemisphere, and the ice melt potentially plays a big role in that process, both cause and effect.

So it's interesting to watch...
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1381. java162
Quoting 1374. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Get ready the pattern is about to be revealed here:



its a fish....boring!
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1380. ncstorm
Is anyone not posting the 12z GFS run..wow

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1st Cape Verde Hurricane goes to Erin or is that Fernand? I'll go with Erin being the GOM one and Fernand being the Cape Verde one.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Duh, how could I forget this one?



Tropical Storm Francis from 1998.
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1377. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1370. Waltanater:
There hasn't been a CAT 5 Hurricane in the last 6 years. I think we are well overdue for one or two.
Last one was in 2007, right?
felix was the last one to get cat 5
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1373. DavidHOUTX:


Hopefully that means we are overdue for one

I'm hoping we get one soon...we need the rain bad.
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Quoting 1368. FatPenguin:


Amazing rainfall totals.

What's curious is that I don't recall the last time Texas has had an extreme rain event from a TS/Hurricane over such a wide area.

Hermine did pretty well for herself in 2010, but nowhere near the areal extent of Beulah. I might have to poke around a little bit now to see if there is a larger scale rainfall area than that in the recent past.

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Get ready the pattern is about to be revealed here:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1368. FatPenguin:


Amazing rainfall totals.

What's curious is that I don't recall the last time Texas has had an extreme rain event from a TS/Hurricane over such a wide area.


Hopefully that means we are overdue for one
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Quoting 1369. java162:


where can i get you model runs? link me up plz
Levi's page Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
BOOM! Just like that the GFS shows 2 systems.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
There hasn't been a CAT 5 Hurricane in the last 6 years. I think we are well overdue for one or two.
Last one was in 2007, right?
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1369. java162
Quoting 1367. GTstormChaserCaleb:
1008 mb. low to the west of FL.



where can i get you model runs? link me up plz
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Quoting 1312. 1900hurricane:
I'd totally dig something like this right now.



Amazing rainfall totals.

What's curious is that I don't recall the last time Texas has had an extreme rain event from a TS/Hurricane over such a wide area. Seems like it's been a long time.
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1008 mb. low to the west of FL.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Definitely something wanting to get going here and look where it is heading.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I think some people have said this already but just to restate, Just because we have no storms now (In Atlantic) does not mean the season is a bust. It does not mean there is El Nino. I think it was the last page that TA13 posted on saying NOAA still expects an above average season. And anyone from Canada down the East Coast into the Gulf and Caribbean is at risk. Storms take time to form and they will form eventually. Patience
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Interesting to know that central Fl. (Orlando area)has had the most major hurricanes pass through its area.
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Quoting 1361. RGVtropicalWx13:

Not even close to being right. NO ONE IN THE USA ISN'T SAFE YET!!!

Notice where the models show the lower pressures over the South and Gulf Coast, when you see that that is an indication where you are more apt to see more rainfall and tropical systems. I would not want the Pretoria model to verify.
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Quoting 1358. Stormchaser121:

Is that possible?
Certainly!

Great Lakes trough and ridge over Arizona and New Mexico: Again it is all about timing and of course you have to have a storm.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1347. hurricanes2018:
that means no hurricane will hit the USA or the east coast and less names storms this year. the east coast is save!

Not even close to being right. NO ONE IN THE USA ISN'T SAFE YET!!!
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Quoting 1328. 1900hurricane:
Or even better, something like Beulah shifted a couple hundred miles to the north.



Not sure there are any better areal rain champions than this one.


For Austin, another Beulah would get it wet enough downstream that the rice farmers could pull their straw out of Travis for a month or so... that plus the 7" Travis got would help maybe four or five feet rise, given the aquifer's emptiness. But it looks like TX might be up for two or even three storms before the clock runs out on us. Fingers, toes and eyes crossed.
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Quoting 1347. hurricanes2018:
that means no hurricane will hit the USA or the east coast and less names storms this year. the east coast is save!

Incorrect.
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Quoting 1355. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Depends on what the ridge does over Texas. I think it would have to back its way towards the 4 corners region and a trough to pull it up from the Yucatan.

Is that possible?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1344. CaribBoy:


Hmm very tasty meal! BUT I can't say the same for the breakfast, I threw it in the trash... I still have stomachache because of it :s :s
...did you have any of the foods on the "sideboard?"
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1356. java162
Quoting 1342. Stormchaser2007:
Three disturbances by next week.




where are you getting this model run....min eonly goes out to 120hours
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Quoting 1345. Stormchaser121:

If something DOES form in the gulf and head to TX would it be that far south? I hope it will be further up the coast.
Depends on what the ridge does over Texas. I think it would have to back its way towards the 4 corners region and a trough to pull it up from the Yucatan.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1354. Patrap
Burled Shrimp's...


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1345. Stormchaser121:

If something DOES form in the gulf and head to TX would it be that far south? I hope it will be further up the coast.
You're either in the "EYE" or you are not!
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Quoting 1348. Waltanater:
That's a disturbing relief!


Yeah.. we need it
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Quoting 1346. EyEtoEyE:
. What's for dinner?


Something even tastier than what I'm having for lunch... I hope XD lol
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Quoting 1346. EyEtoEyE:
. What's for dinner?
Crow :P
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1342. Stormchaser2007:
Three disturbances by next week.

That's a disturbing relief!
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Quoting 1329. CaribBoy:


VERY GOOD NEWS XD
that means no hurricane will hit the USA or the east coast and less names storms this year. the east coast is save!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1334. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Oh I see you are now having rain for lunch, did you enjoy the dust for breakfast? :P
. What's for dinner?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1337. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I guess there is always 2 sides to the weather, the good and bad side, and you can't always have it both ways which would be the good side.

If something DOES form in the gulf and head to TX would it be that far south? I hope it will be further up the coast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1334. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Oh I see you are now having rain for lunch, did you enjoy the dust for breakfast? :P


Hmm very tasty meal! BUT I can't say the same for the breakfast, I threw it in the trash... I still have stomachache because of it :s :s
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1341. JeffMasters:
Dr. Ricky Rood is giving this webinar today, should be interesting!

*Post-Sandy Recovery Series I: Storms, Barrier Islands, and Implications for the Atlantic Coastline*

Thursday, August 8, 2013
2:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m. ET
*/Registration Link:/*_

https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/826825096

Note: Please make sure you have downloaded the most recent version of the Go To Webinar software to view this presentation.

*Overview:* Shifting from the summer's theme of fire regimes in the West, we now move to the Eastern Seaboard, where National Park Service staff and partners are working to respond, recover, and mitigate the damages caused by Hurricane Sandy. As we move past the emergency response phase of this work, the National Park Service focuses on rebuilding coastal parks and communities in a way that is more resilient and sustainable to future storms. This 2-part series dives into the underlying climate drivers that produce a storm like Sandy, the potential for more frequent and intense storms in a changing climate, and the ways in which we can support and enhance the natural resilience of the Atlantic Coastline. The webinar is moderated by Rebecca Beavers, an NPS coastal geologist currently working to address issues of resilience and adaptation on the coast.

*About the Speakers:*
Richard Rood is a Professor in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences and the School of Natural Resources and Environment at the University of Michigan. Dr. Rood has made research contributions in the fields of numerical modeling, data assimilation, and atmospheric transport and chemistry. He also has experience in the design, implementation, and management of software and hardware systems used in high performance computing. A primary focus of his recent research is to accelerate the use of knowledge from the science-based investigation of the Earth’s climate in planning and policy. Rood’s professional degree is in Meteorology from Florida State University. He recently served on the National Academy of Sciences Committee on A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling and writes expert blogs on climate change science and problem solving for the Weather Underground and for climatepolicy.org.

Norbert P. Psuty is Professor Emeritus at Rutgers University. Dr. Psuty is a coastal geomorphologist whose research encompasses the dynamics of the coastal zone, incorporating process-response studies of beaches, coastal dune processes and morphology, sediment budget studies, barrier island dynamics, estuarine sedimentation, and sea-level rise. His research has been conducted primarily in various portions of coastal New Jersey and it has both a basic science component as well as an applied side. Dr. Psuty has been doing research at Sandy Hook since around 1970 and has been and continues to be consultant to the National Park Service on shoreline dynamics and change in the coastal parks. He has received the National Park Service Director’s Award for Natural Resource Research in the National Parks and the North Atlantic Region’s award for Natural Resource Research.
*
*
*Useful Web Links:* To find out more about this work, visit these helpful links:

Materials related to Dr. Rood's presentation: http://glisaclimate.org/project/arctic-oscillation %3A-climate-variability-in-great-lakes
Dr. Rood's curriculum vitae: http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Dr. Psuty's Sandy Hook Cooperative Research Programs: http://marine.rutgers.edu/geomorph/
NPS Climate Change Response Program - Useful Resources: http://nature.nps.gov/climatechange/resources.cfm

*More Information*
This monthly climate change webinar series is presented by the NPS Climate Change Response Program in collaboration with the Alaska Regional Office. The purpose of the series is to connect NPS employees, volunteers, and partners with scientists and experts in the field of climate change research. The webinar series is a Service-wide forum where researchers can share credible, up-to-date information and research materials about the impacts of changing climate in national parks and provide participants the opportunity to engage with them in discussion.

Presentations begin at 2 PM EDT, on the second Thursday of the month, and last about 90 minutes (a 60 minute presentation and 30 minutes for questions.) They are viewed by logging into /GoToWebinar /on-line at the time of the presentation. Audio is available via a call in number (toll charges apply) or through your computer’s speakers (free, but may be limited by connection speed). Questions will be taken via /GoToWebinar’s/ tool bar. Again, please make sure the most recent version of the /GoToWebinar /software is installed on your computer prior to logging in for the presentation. You may want to login up to 30 minutes prior to make sure it will run smoothly on your system.

Download webinar materials after the presentation by visiting the Climate Change site on Sharepoint (must be on the NPS network); Look in the Webinar Series Document library under the Climate Change Communication subsite: http://sharenrss/climatechange/communication/Web%2 0Seminars/Forms/AllItems.aspx

Presentations, recordings and related materials will be posted to Sharepoint shortly following the webinar.

Jeff Masters
good stuff.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Three disturbances by next week.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1341. JeffMasters (Admin)
Dr. Ricky Rood is giving this webinar today, should be interesting! He'll be speaking at this webinar about the role of the Arctic Oscillation in weather and climate and how it might change in the warming world.

*Post-Sandy Recovery Series I: Storms, Barrier Islands, and Implications for the Atlantic Coastline*

Thursday, August 8, 2013
2:00 p.m. - 3:30 p.m. ET
*/Registration Link:/*_

https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/826825096

Note: Please make sure you have downloaded the most recent version of the Go To Webinar software to view this presentation.

*Overview:* Shifting from the summer's theme of fire regimes in the West, we now move to the Eastern Seaboard, where National Park Service staff and partners are working to respond, recover, and mitigate the damages caused by Hurricane Sandy. As we move past the emergency response phase of this work, the National Park Service focuses on rebuilding coastal parks and communities in a way that is more resilient and sustainable to future storms. This 2-part series dives into the underlying climate drivers that produce a storm like Sandy, the potential for more frequent and intense storms in a changing climate, and the ways in which we can support and enhance the natural resilience of the Atlantic Coastline. The webinar is moderated by Rebecca Beavers, an NPS coastal geologist currently working to address issues of resilience and adaptation on the coast.

*About the Speakers:*
Richard Rood is a Professor in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences and the School of Natural Resources and Environment at the University of Michigan. Dr. Rood has made research contributions in the fields of numerical modeling, data assimilation, and atmospheric transport and chemistry. He also has experience in the design, implementation, and management of software and hardware systems used in high performance computing. A primary focus of his recent research is to accelerate the use of knowledge from the science-based investigation of the Earth%u2019s climate in planning and policy. Rood%u2019s professional degree is in Meteorology from Florida State University. He recently served on the National Academy of Sciences Committee on A National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling and writes expert blogs on climate change science and problem solving for the Weather Underground and for climatepolicy.org.

Norbert P. Psuty is Professor Emeritus at Rutgers University. Dr. Psuty is a coastal geomorphologist whose research encompasses the dynamics of the coastal zone, incorporating process-response studies of beaches, coastal dune processes and morphology, sediment budget studies, barrier island dynamics, estuarine sedimentation, and sea-level rise. His research has been conducted primarily in various portions of coastal New Jersey and it has both a basic science component as well as an applied side. Dr. Psuty has been doing research at Sandy Hook since around 1970 and has been and continues to be consultant to the National Park Service on shoreline dynamics and change in the coastal parks. He has received the National Park Service Director%u2019s Award for Natural Resource Research in the National Parks and the North Atlantic Region%u2019s award for Natural Resource Research.
*
*
*Useful Web Links:* To find out more about this work, visit these helpful links:

Materials related to Dr. Rood's presentation: http://glisaclimate.org/project/arctic-oscillation %3A-climate-variability-in-great-lakes
Dr. Rood's curriculum vitae: http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Dr. Psuty's Sandy Hook Cooperative Research Programs: http://marine.rutgers.edu/geomorph/
NPS Climate Change Response Program - Useful Resources: http://nature.nps.gov/climatechange/resources.cfm

*More Information*
This monthly climate change webinar series is presented by the NPS Climate Change Response Program in collaboration with the Alaska Regional Office. The purpose of the series is to connect NPS employees, volunteers, and partners with scientists and experts in the field of climate change research. The webinar series is a Service-wide forum where researchers can share credible, up-to-date information and research materials about the impacts of changing climate in national parks and provide participants the opportunity to engage with them in discussion.

Presentations begin at 2 PM EDT, on the second Thursday of the month, and last about 90 minutes (a 60 minute presentation and 30 minutes for questions.) They are viewed by logging into /GoToWebinar /on-line at the time of the presentation. Audio is available via a call in number (toll charges apply) or through your computer%u2019s speakers (free, but may be limited by connection speed). Questions will be taken via /GoToWebinar%u2019s/ tool bar. Again, please make sure the most recent version of the /GoToWebinar /software is installed on your computer prior to logging in for the presentation. You may want to login up to 30 minutes prior to make sure it will run smoothly on your system.

Download webinar materials after the presentation by visiting the Climate Change site on Sharepoint (must be on the NPS network); Look in the Webinar Series Document library under the Climate Change Communication subsite: http://sharenrss/climatechange/communication/Web%2 0Seminars/Forms/AllItems.aspx

Presentations, recordings and related materials will be posted to Sharepoint shortly following the webinar.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 1331. SouthernIllinois:
If you start me up
If you start me up
I'll never stop
If you start me up
If you start me up
I'll never stop
I've been running hot.....


"Some like it hot!"
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Quoting 1331. SouthernIllinois:
If you start me up
If you start me up
I'll never stop
If you start me up
If you start me up
I'll never stop
I've been running hot.....




You're going to be running wet here in a little while it looks like!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1336. 69Viking:


Unfortunately there are some areas that didn't appreciate the direct hit they received form Isaac! Amazing how one area can benefit from a tropical system while the area directly on the coast receives a ton of damage!
I guess there is always 2 sides to the weather, the good and bad side, and you can't always have it both ways which would be the good side.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1325. SouthernIllinois:
He brought me some BIG MUCH NEEDED drought relief rains. Love you Isaac.


Unfortunately there are some areas that didn't appreciate the direct hit they received form Isaac! Amazing how one area can benefit from a tropical system while the area directly on the coast receives a ton of damage!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather