Which Hurricane Forecast Model Should You Trust?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:05 PM GMT on August 07, 2013

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) set a new record in 2012 for accuracy of their 1, 2, 3, and 4-day Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts, but had almost no skill making intensity forecasts, according to the 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report, issued in March 2013. The new records for track accuracy were set despite the fact that the season’s storms were harder than average to forecast. The average error in a 1-day forecast was 46 miles, and was 79 miles for 2 days, 116 miles for 3 days, 164 miles for 4 days, and 224 miles for 5 days. The official track forecast had a westward bias of 10 - 17 miles for 1 - 3 day forecasts (i.e., the official forecast tended to fall to the west of the verifying position), and was 38 and 75 miles too far to the northeast for the 4- and 5-day forecasts, respectively.


Figure 1. Verification of official NHC hurricane track forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2012. Over the past 15 - 20 years, 1 - 3 day track forecast errors have been reduced by about 60%. Track forecast error reductions of about 50% have occurred over the past ten years for 4- and 5-day forecasts. Image credit: 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

NHC Intensity Forecasts: Little Improvement Since 1990
Official NHC intensity forecasts did better than usual in 2012, and had errors lower than the 5-year average error for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. However, 2012's storms were easier to predict than usual, due to due to a lack of rapidly intensifying hurricanes. These rapid intensifiers are typically the source of the largest forecast errors. The skill of official NHC 24-hour intensity forecasts made in 2012 for the Atlantic basin were only about 15% better than a "no-skill" forecast; 2, 3, 4, and 5-day intensity forecasts had no skill.


Figure 2. Verification of official NHC hurricane intensity forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2012. Intensity forecasts have shown little to no improvement since 1990. Image credit: 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

Which Track Model Should You Trust?
As usual, in 2012 the official NHC forecast for Atlantic storms was almost as good as or better than any individual computer models--though NOAA's GFS model did slightly better than the NHC official forecast at 12, 24, and 48-hour periods, and the European model forecast was slightly better at 12-hour forecasts. Despite all the attention given to how the European Center (ECMWF) model outperformed the GFS model for Hurricane Sandy's track at long ranges, the GFS model actually outperformed the European model in 2012 when summing up all track forecasts made for all Atlantic named storms. This occurred, in part, because the European model made a few disastrously bad forecasts for Tropical Storm Debby when it was in the Gulf of Mexico and steering currents were weak. For several runs, the model predicted a Texas landfall, but Debby ended up moving east-northeast to make a Northwest Florida landfall, like the GFS model had predicted. However, the best-performing model averaged over the past three years has been the European Center model, with the GFS model a close second. Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing track models used to predict hurricane tracks. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on this page. Here are some of the better models NHC regularly looks at:

ECMWF: The European Center's global forecast model
GFS: NOAA's global forecast model
NOGAPS: The Navy's global forecast model (now defunct, replaced by the NAVGEM model in 2013)
UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office's global forecast model
GFDL: The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's hurricane model, initialized using GFS data
HWRF: The intended successor for the the GFDL hurricane model, also initialized using GFS data
CMC: The Canadian GEM model
BAMM: The very old Beta and Advection Model (Medium layer), which is still useful at longer ranges

If one averages together the track forecasts from the first six of these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it. As seen in Figure 3, the HWRF and UKMET were well behind the ECMWF and GFS in forecast accuracy in 2012, but were still respectable. The simple BAMM model did well at 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. The GFDL and CMC models did quite poorly compared to the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and HWRF. The Navy's NOGAPS model also did poorly in 2012, and has been retired. Its replacement for 2013 is called the NAVGEM model.


Figure 3. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2012, compared to a "no skill" model called "CLIPER5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence means that a storm will tend to keep going in the direction it's current going.) OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCA=one of the consensus models that lends together several of the above models; CMC=Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM) model; BAMM=Beta Advection Model (Medium depth.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2012 verification report.

Which Intensity Model Should You Trust?
Don't trust any of them. NHC has two main statistical intensity models, LGEM and DSHP (the SHIPS model with inland decay of a storm factored in.) In addition, four dynamical models that are also use to track hurricanes--the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and GFDL models--all offer intensity forecasts. With the exception of the GFS model, which had a skill just 5% better than a "no-skill" intensity forecast for predictions going out 36 hours, all of these models had no skill in their intensity forecasts during 2012. The ECMWF and HWRF models were the worst models for intensity forecasts of 3, 4, and 5 days, with a skill of 20% - 60% lower than a "no-skill" forecast. The LGEM model, which was a decent intensity model in 2011, tanked badly in 2012 and had near-zero skill. The only model that was any good in 2012 was the IVCN "consensus" model, which averages together the intensity forecasts of two or more of the intensity models such as LGEM, GFDL, HWRF, and DSHP.

Some Promising Models From the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)
Last year was the fourth year of a ten-year project, called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), aimed at reducing hurricane track and intensity errors by 50%. The new experimental models from HFIP generally performed poorly in 2012. However, the new FIM9 15-km global model was competitive with the ECMWF and GFS models for track, and the new CIRA Statistical Intensity Consensus (SPC3) model for intensity performed better than many of the traditional intensity models.

For those interested in learning more about the hurricane forecast models, NOAA has a 1-hour training video (updated for 2011.) Additional information about the guidance models used at the NHC can be found at NHC and the NOAA/HRD Hurricane FAQ.

Sources of Model Data
You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on wunderground's wundermap with the model layer turned on.
Longer ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site.
FSU's experimental hurricane forecast page (CMC, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM models)
NOAA's HFIP model comparison page (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, FIM9, UKMET, and CMC models.)
Experimental HFIP models

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. I plan on having a detailed update on Friday to discuss the latest long-range forecasts for the coming peak part of hurricane season.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1186. sar2401
Quoting TampaSpin:
has anyone used the WU enhanced feature linking to FaceBook....I don't wanna do something I will regret.

I tried Facebook once. I regretted it ever since. :-)
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Quoting 1120. Grothar:
I believe a civilization should be judged by the television shows they watch.

Right now: #1 Dancing with Stars
#2 Real Housewives of New Jersey


I say we have come a long way since 1958 when "Friday Night Wrestling was the #1 show.

One of the first Hurricane Hunters aircraft, the Douglas Havoc



Now, the WC-130J Hercules:





... And by the amount of time people spend watching T.V. It seems practically everyone I've ran into has seen every movie and watches every show on T.V.

I would have to agree, its sad with life being as short as it is that people waste so much of their life time with such unbelievably trivial things.
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Ke$ha
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has anyone used the WU enhanced feature linking to FaceBook....I don't wanna do something I will regret.
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Quoting 1173. SouthernIllinois:
This place about to blow
blow blow blow blow blow blow blow blow....




$ome crazy $torms out there :)
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The big picture at the end of the run.

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Quoting 1148. Doppler22:
All this rain just proves my point. It is not the State of Missouri. It is the State of Misery. :p (No offense to any people that live there)


My sister lives in southern Missouri. After talking to her this morning, I'd say right about now she agrees with you...
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Rise and shine folks, gonna be another scorcher, highs in the 100s and not a drop of rain around for 200 miles. (ahh hell with it, sounds better with a thousand miles)
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6z GFS ens run has them lined up.



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Quoting 1173. SouthernIllinois:
This place about to blow
blow blow blow blow blow blow blow blow....




are you wishcasting.....ROFLMAO
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Quoting 1167. Waltanater:
nuthin!

Atm though
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Quoting 1142. stoormfury:
everything now is climatology.as a result we expect a ramp up in tropical activity ,especially as we are five weeks from peak of hurricane season. no one is saying that the series of SAL outbreaks is totally responsible for the slow start to august, which has also kept the models from seeing any development in the near future. The big anomaly is the strength of the Bermuda high, which has caused the heavy sahara dust within the MDR coupled with the displacement of the ITCZ further south than usual. The only signs of cyclogenesis is when the BH weakens and migrates further north thereby allowing the ITCZ to come further north. this will allow vertical instability and assist the tropical waves already lined up over Africa with a chance to develop. until this happens then tropical inactivity will continue to be the order of the day.

Well when the Bermuda high migrates north, then that makes fish storms :p
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1161. FtMyersgal:


Yikes the GOM is pretty hot already! Temps of Fort Myers Beach are at 87°.


More a bath than a cool dip that!
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Quoting 1164. SouthernIllinois:

I want your crystal ball.

Lol! Well the latest model runs do show a hint or even development by next week and the upward motion of mjo will be entering our basin
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Quoting 1130. Grothar:


Ah, we have something in common. Mrs. Grothar said I should write a book called "How to kill any Plant in One Easy Lesson". (a special chapter on Orchids)




LOL! Though to be fair, I heard Orchids are pretty difficult to grow?

I inadvertantly, seem to have killed a houseplant over the weekend, and not quite sure what I did! Though, they all always look like they're just hanging on LOL I had a friend in San Diego who was magic with plants, and his apartment was like a botanical garden, just amazing, would love to have loads of plants like that. Though here, would probably just contribute to the mildew problem in these old cottages LOL

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Quoting 1151. GeoffreyWPB:
The big picture...

nuthin!
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1166. pcola57


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1165. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:
I believe a civilization should be judged by the television shows they watch.

Right now: #1 Dancing with Stars
#2 Real Housewives of New Jersey


I say we have come a long way since 1958 when "Friday Night Wrestling was the #1 show.

One of the first Hurricane Hunters aircraft, the Douglas Havoc



Now, the WC-130J Hercules:




Good Morning Gro. Hey, I used to like "Friday Night Wrestling" when I was kid. Gorgeous George and all, you know. At least we all knew it was fake.

The newest WC-130J is now approaching 25 years old, older than many bloggers here...and there's no replacement...except another WC-130J, which they aren't making any longer. I can see the time when it will be like the B-52. It's now been five years since the newest B-52 was younger than its oldest crew member. They expect them to continue flying until 2020, which proves that old guys still do pretty good. :-)
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Quoting 1156. SouthernIllinois:

No storms is good, fury! I'm okay with that. Are you?

Unfortunately he's incorrect. This lull in activity is going to end by next week.
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Quoting 1153. wunderkidcayman:

Lol yeah Bluestorm5 created it



Specially for you, oh that's very find from Bluestorm5. I want mine too LOL
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Quoting 1106. AtHomeInTX:
I could always go for a cool dip in the gulf... Oh :) Wouldn't anyway, been watching shark week all week. Can't imagine the heat would improve their disposition any. Lol.



Yikes the GOM is pretty hot already! Temps of Fort Myers Beach are at 87°.
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Quoting 1146. SouthernIllinois:
Sittin', thinkin', sinkin', drinkin'
Wonderin' what I'd do when I'm through tonight
Smokin', mopin', maybe just hopin'
Some little girl will pass on by
Don't say Hi, like a spider to a fly
Jump right ahead and you're dead



Looks like more rain for you! We're up to zero days in a row without rain here, 50% chance of more rain today. You have mail again.
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A long term drought is believed to have caused the collapse of their success and the Spanish invaders brought diseases they has no resistance to. 
Quoting 1135. Waltanater:
So how would the Mayan Civilization be judged then? Maybe if they had TV they would have known about their impending doom, which was probably a huge hurricane.

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right now there no signals for tropical development. The models are just trying to do the impossible by conjuring up storms that does not exist. unless the conditions change then things ill remain the same, and not for 5 DAYS ONLY BUT MAYBE THE END OF AUGUST
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Quoting 1149. CaribBoy:


Lol I like your avatar XD

Lol yeah Bluestorm5 created it

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Quoting 1142. stoormfury:
everything now is climatology.as a result we expect a ramp up in tropical activity ,especially as we are five weeks from peak of hurricane season. no one is saying that the series of SAL outbreaks is totally responsible for the slow start to august, which has also kept the models from seeing any development in the near future. The big anomaly is the strength of the Bermuda high, which has caused the heavy sahara dust within the MDR coupled with the displacement of the ITCZ further south than usual. The only signs of cyclogenesis is when the BH weakens and migrates further north thereby allowing the ITCZ to come further north. this will allow vertical instability and assist the tropical waves already lined up over Africa with a chance to develop. until this happens then tropical inactivity will continue to be the order of the day.



that means no storm anytime soon.
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The big picture...

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1150. beell
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Quoting 1145. wunderkidcayman:

Looking good


Lol I like your avatar XD
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All this rain just proves my point. It is not the State of Missouri. It is the State of Misery. :p (No offense to any people that live there)
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1147. Grothar
Quoting 1138. catastropheadjuster:
I know this is off subject but talking about fellow bloggers MIA, has anyone heard from FLOODMAN? I seen him or nothing. Does anyone know where he's gone or has anyone talked to him?

sheri


He was here the other day and said hello to everone. He is doing fine.
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Quoting 1144. CaribBoy:


Short relief

Looking good
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Short relief
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Quoting 1139. Waltanater:
Gone. Gone for good.


why what happened, he use to be on here all the time. He was a good person.

sheri
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everything now is climatology.as a result we expect a ramp up in tropical activity ,especially as we are five weeks from peak of hurricane season. no one is saying that the series of SAL outbreaks is totally responsible for the slow start to august, which has also kept the models from seeing any development in the near future. The big anomaly is the strength of the Bermuda high, which has caused the heavy sahara dust within the MDR coupled with the displacement of the ITCZ further south than usual. The only signs of cyclogenesis is when the BH weakens and migrates further north thereby allowing the ITCZ to come further north. this will allow vertical instability and assist the tropical waves already lined up over Africa with a chance to develop. until this happens then tropical inactivity will continue to be the order of the day.
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big t.storms here
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Quoting 1138. catastropheadjuster:
I know this is off subject but talking about fellow bloggers MIA, has anyone heard from FLOODMAN? I seen him or nothing. Does anyone know where he's gone or has anyone talked to him?

sheri
Gone. Gone for good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know this is off subject but talking about fellow bloggers MIA, has anyone heard from FLOODMAN? I seen him or nothing. Does anyone know where he's gone or has anyone talked to him?

sheri
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Quoting 1132. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Also has a weak system approaching the SW FL. coast.




how many hours is this out GT?
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1136. Grothar
Quoting 1127. GeorgiaStormz:
What is this, the 10" of rain a day show?



since 4 yesterday, areas south of the main swath of 10" rain yesterday are catching up on their rainfall amounts as well, so we can make sure ALL of southern missouri is underwater.



Have you seen the news on the flooding in Missouri? I don't know why there isn't better coverage. That is right where I was stationed at Fort Leonard Wood. There is a little town right next to it called Waynesville. Not much of a town, but I heard it was under water.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather