Which Hurricane Forecast Model Should You Trust?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:05 PM GMT on August 07, 2013

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) set a new record in 2012 for accuracy of their 1, 2, 3, and 4-day Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts, but had almost no skill making intensity forecasts, according to the 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report, issued in March 2013. The new records for track accuracy were set despite the fact that the season’s storms were harder than average to forecast. The average error in a 1-day forecast was 46 miles, and was 79 miles for 2 days, 116 miles for 3 days, 164 miles for 4 days, and 224 miles for 5 days. The official track forecast had a westward bias of 10 - 17 miles for 1 - 3 day forecasts (i.e., the official forecast tended to fall to the west of the verifying position), and was 38 and 75 miles too far to the northeast for the 4- and 5-day forecasts, respectively.


Figure 1. Verification of official NHC hurricane track forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2012. Over the past 15 - 20 years, 1 - 3 day track forecast errors have been reduced by about 60%. Track forecast error reductions of about 50% have occurred over the past ten years for 4- and 5-day forecasts. Image credit: 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

NHC Intensity Forecasts: Little Improvement Since 1990
Official NHC intensity forecasts did better than usual in 2012, and had errors lower than the 5-year average error for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. However, 2012's storms were easier to predict than usual, due to due to a lack of rapidly intensifying hurricanes. These rapid intensifiers are typically the source of the largest forecast errors. The skill of official NHC 24-hour intensity forecasts made in 2012 for the Atlantic basin were only about 15% better than a "no-skill" forecast; 2, 3, 4, and 5-day intensity forecasts had no skill.


Figure 2. Verification of official NHC hurricane intensity forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2012. Intensity forecasts have shown little to no improvement since 1990. Image credit: 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

Which Track Model Should You Trust?
As usual, in 2012 the official NHC forecast for Atlantic storms was almost as good as or better than any individual computer models--though NOAA's GFS model did slightly better than the NHC official forecast at 12, 24, and 48-hour periods, and the European model forecast was slightly better at 12-hour forecasts. Despite all the attention given to how the European Center (ECMWF) model outperformed the GFS model for Hurricane Sandy's track at long ranges, the GFS model actually outperformed the European model in 2012 when summing up all track forecasts made for all Atlantic named storms. This occurred, in part, because the European model made a few disastrously bad forecasts for Tropical Storm Debby when it was in the Gulf of Mexico and steering currents were weak. For several runs, the model predicted a Texas landfall, but Debby ended up moving east-northeast to make a Northwest Florida landfall, like the GFS model had predicted. However, the best-performing model averaged over the past three years has been the European Center model, with the GFS model a close second. Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing track models used to predict hurricane tracks. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on this page. Here are some of the better models NHC regularly looks at:

ECMWF: The European Center's global forecast model
GFS: NOAA's global forecast model
NOGAPS: The Navy's global forecast model (now defunct, replaced by the NAVGEM model in 2013)
UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office's global forecast model
GFDL: The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's hurricane model, initialized using GFS data
HWRF: The intended successor for the the GFDL hurricane model, also initialized using GFS data
CMC: The Canadian GEM model
BAMM: The very old Beta and Advection Model (Medium layer), which is still useful at longer ranges

If one averages together the track forecasts from the first six of these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it. As seen in Figure 3, the HWRF and UKMET were well behind the ECMWF and GFS in forecast accuracy in 2012, but were still respectable. The simple BAMM model did well at 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. The GFDL and CMC models did quite poorly compared to the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and HWRF. The Navy's NOGAPS model also did poorly in 2012, and has been retired. Its replacement for 2013 is called the NAVGEM model.


Figure 3. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2012, compared to a "no skill" model called "CLIPER5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence means that a storm will tend to keep going in the direction it's current going.) OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCA=one of the consensus models that lends together several of the above models; CMC=Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM) model; BAMM=Beta Advection Model (Medium depth.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2012 verification report.

Which Intensity Model Should You Trust?
Don't trust any of them. NHC has two main statistical intensity models, LGEM and DSHP (the SHIPS model with inland decay of a storm factored in.) In addition, four dynamical models that are also use to track hurricanes--the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and GFDL models--all offer intensity forecasts. With the exception of the GFS model, which had a skill just 5% better than a "no-skill" intensity forecast for predictions going out 36 hours, all of these models had no skill in their intensity forecasts during 2012. The ECMWF and HWRF models were the worst models for intensity forecasts of 3, 4, and 5 days, with a skill of 20% - 60% lower than a "no-skill" forecast. The LGEM model, which was a decent intensity model in 2011, tanked badly in 2012 and had near-zero skill. The only model that was any good in 2012 was the IVCN "consensus" model, which averages together the intensity forecasts of two or more of the intensity models such as LGEM, GFDL, HWRF, and DSHP.

Some Promising Models From the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)
Last year was the fourth year of a ten-year project, called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), aimed at reducing hurricane track and intensity errors by 50%. The new experimental models from HFIP generally performed poorly in 2012. However, the new FIM9 15-km global model was competitive with the ECMWF and GFS models for track, and the new CIRA Statistical Intensity Consensus (SPC3) model for intensity performed better than many of the traditional intensity models.

For those interested in learning more about the hurricane forecast models, NOAA has a 1-hour training video (updated for 2011.) Additional information about the guidance models used at the NHC can be found at NHC and the NOAA/HRD Hurricane FAQ.

Sources of Model Data
You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on wunderground's wundermap with the model layer turned on.
Longer ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site.
FSU's experimental hurricane forecast page (CMC, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM models)
NOAA's HFIP model comparison page (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, FIM9, UKMET, and CMC models.)
Experimental HFIP models

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. I plan on having a detailed update on Friday to discuss the latest long-range forecasts for the coming peak part of hurricane season.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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736. VR46L
Quoting 729. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
naw its not bad yet i'll tell ya when


How is your forecast for the season going ?
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i think the second low pressure will have better luck getting through the carib. looking for a convection increase shortly
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Quoting 730. SuperStorm093:
A lot of these waves have been loosing steam once they hit the water.
totally normal process most do

tracked lots of sleepers all the time go too sleep as soon as over water

but just cause we cannot see em does not mean they are not still there
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Another BLAH run of the GFS, I am really starting to wonder if this will be an active season, I doubt it will at this point.
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A lot of these waves have been loosing steam once they hit the water.
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Quoting 728. VR46L:
Nasty looking....

naw its not bad yet i'll tell ya when
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728. VR46L
Nasty looking....

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727. SLU
Quoting 717. JLPR2:
The vorticity off the coast of Africa has been moving due north, now its mostly inland.





It's probably being influenced by the large cyclonic gyre to its west.
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Quoting 724. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The wave in the eastern Caribbean may appear to look better organized tomorrow as it approaches the southeastern periphery of the upper-level trough where divergence is maximized. However, any true organization is very unlikely to result. Think Dorian northeast of the Leeward Islands.



I don't think it will be so easy to write it off if it gets into the GOM.
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Quoting 722. FLwolverine:
Taz, I am truly not trying to give you a hard time, but I LOVE this phrase! OK if I borrow it? :-)



Sure
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The wave in the eastern Caribbean may appear to look better organized tomorrow as it approaches the southeastern periphery of the upper-level trough where divergence is maximized. However, any true organization is very unlikely to result. Think Dorian northeast of the Leeward Islands.

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Everything at a glance!
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Quoting 712. Tazmanian:

Oh freaking cars........
Taz, I am truly not trying to give you a hard time, but I LOVE this phrase! OK if I borrow it? :-)
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Quoting 718. stormpetrol:




It has some anticyclonic flow aloft , I think the hostile conditions are a bit exaggerated, if it can hold together until tomorrow they up it to 30-40%. This 5 day % doesn't make sense to me at all, JMO.


Wow,...can you perhaps get those two maps in motion? That would be dramatic mesmerizing stuff to watch.
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Here is a view of Western Africa that shows pouch 20L two days before it emerges Africa.

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Quoting 622. StormTrackerScott:
Actually the TUTT is in the Gulf at 72 hours.


You taking flak for what's on someone else's map? ROLF.
Btw, folks, the GFS is not iron-clad - especially after 75 hrs when it drops to 60%. I'm sure that is only an average, as well, so SOMETIMES it might get below that. It only takes one SOMETIME to screw up a bunch of people's lives, huh? So, it is good to stay on top of things.
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Quoting 713. wunderkidcayman:

Maybe

So give both 48 hrs and 5 days what's your %



It has some anticyclonic flow aloft , I think the hostile conditions are a bit exaggerated, if it can hold together until tomorrow they up it to 30-40%. This 5 day % doesn't make sense to me at all, JMO.
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717. JLPR2
The vorticity off the coast of Africa has been moving due north, now its mostly inland.



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Quoting 712. Tazmanian:


Oh freaking cars about the chart right now at this time there is a lot of dust dry air and SAL and high wind shear right now thing are really UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT for this about every not everey year where things gos buy that chart any ways if this keeps up will be Lucky if we get too olny 10 name storms this year is more like 2006 or 2009 so far
You give up too easily... also, the chart clearly shows that it's 50% or greater of storms in any given date in a given year between August 20th and October 15th, with the chart peaking at 90% to 95% chance of named storm in any given year on September 10th. This mean that it's highly likely than not the storm will come during this time period in any given year.
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Quoting 713. wunderkidcayman:

Maybe

So give both 48 hrs and 5 days what's your %


Near 0% and near 0%.
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Quoting 710. stormpetrol:
I'll say the NHC will probably bump up AOI in E Caribbean to 10% at 8 pm EST


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Quoting 710. stormpetrol:
I'll say the NHC will probably bump up AOI in E Caribbean to 10% at 8 pm EST

Maybe

So give both 48 hrs and 5 days what's your %
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Quoting 698. bigwes6844:
Yep if people can notice its the calm before the storms. Just be ready. heres a reminder:


Oh freaking cars about the chart right now at this time there is a lot of dust dry air and SAL and high wind shear right now thing are really UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT for this about every not everey year where things gos buy that chart any ways if this keeps up will be Lucky if we get too olny 10 name storms this year is more like 2006 or 2009 so far
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Me! Its been awhile since i've seen a good storm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CDT WED AUG 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA...NRN MD...FAR ERN WV...EXTREME NRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072152Z - 072315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY SPREAD DOWNSTREAM FROM WW
482...AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF CNTRL PA...NRN MD...FAR ERN WV...AND
EXTREME NRN VA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A NEW WW.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE MOVING E AT 25 KT ACROSS WRN
PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED DOWNSTREAM
FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER CNTRL PA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S IS AIDING IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG. THIS
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH 35 KT OF MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW
WILL SUPPORT STORM MAINTENANCE AND A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
GOING INTO THE EVENING. THUS...A NEW WW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED E OF
WW 482 DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

..GARNER/GOSS.. 08/07/2013


ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40687832 41307785 40887662 39697680 39317776 39367884
40687832
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I'll say the NHC will probably bump up AOI in E Caribbean to 10% at 8 pm EST
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Quoting 652. Sfloridacat5:
Nam 60 hours - forms some type of system in the GOM and moves it into Tex/Mex.


Not sure it will be anything much, yet. I see it looks like it could be wanting to migrate that direction, but I think the general flow also might bring it back up toward a more northerly landfall, if something were to develop...or simply a bit of rainclouds, whichever it might be. - Texas does need the rain.
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Eye has become obscured once again. A gradual weakening trend is expected as it moves into cooler waters and more stable airmass.

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Dave Patricks been streaming live tornado footage from the storm just west of Toronto.
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Wow, learned something new today on the blog by accident!

If you hover with your mouse over the number of pluses on that specific post, you can see the names of the users who plused it.

Now if only you could see who minused it... hmmmm, maybe not.
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Rain here on Provo this evening,
but not much showing on the satellite.
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Friend of mine at WINK sent this picture to me of the Lake Ocheechobee release. Murky to say the least.

Link
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
This area of 0% interest in the E. Carib has little chance to develop. If I was doing a poll of the chances it would be a choice of:
.
A. Slim
B. None
C. Zilch
D. Zero
.


LOL. I'll go for E: All of the Above. :-)
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Quoting interpreter:

Once that ULL moves across the gulf it will be replaced by another east of Florida. This has been the trend all season so far.

I agree, and it will also be followed by another wave of SAL. The SAL doesn't seem to be declining to any appreciable degree, not does the wind shear and strong trade winds. I realize the GFS is starting to show slightly more favorable conditions, but it's been doing so for the last month without being right. There seems to a general feeling that more storms just have to form. My question is why? Given our level of forecasting skills for hurricane seasons, why isn't it possible for 2013 to be a repeat of 1983 when it come to total storms? It seems just as likely as a repeat of 2004, or any other year, probably excepting 2005, given the date. Storms will develop as they develop and, with a very few exceptions, they won't just do so out of thin air. Maybe it's just not all that much fun for me to predict seasons, and more power to you who like to do such things, but we'll know exactly what this season was like on November 30, and that's good enough for me. Nothing I know before then will change what I do to prepare for hurricane season.
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To clear up this issue on the upper low:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 071909
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
309 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
ALOFT...RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM OVER THE NW GULF
COAST REGION...WITH A WESTWARD MOVING UPPER LOW PASSING OVER CUBA
AND SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE GULF
FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH A WEAK
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE REMAINING CLOSE TO THE COAST EACH DAY AND THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING WEST THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THESE SEA
BREEZE AND SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND PUSHING EAST
OFFSHORE BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE LATE EVENINGS. SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING OVER THE STATE FOR
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH MAY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION A BIT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL COOL AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO THE GULF WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST EACH
DAY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A DEEP TROUGH NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST WILL TRAVEL WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
This area of 0% interest in the E. Carib has little chance to develop. If I was doing a poll of the chances it would be a choice of:
.
A. Slim
B. None
C. Zilch
D. Zero
.

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Quoting 662. CybrTeddy:


That's my guess as well, seeing as the models are finally starting to sniff out development around the 15th-20th time frame. It'll probably be another 2010 like season with all our activity squeezed into the peak of season.
Yep if people can notice its the calm before the storms. Just be ready. heres a reminder:
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Quoting 696. TimSoCal:


Ha, I actually grew up in FL(Tampa area). I'll take the rain, but not the severe thunderstorms. :)

LOL. I was up in tampa for a couple of years before i moved to the other side of the state. Live about an hour and a half north of miami. A whole lot less severe storms and waterspouts.
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Quoting 695. flcanes:

Want me to send you some rain? There is too much here in (now sunny) south florida.


Ha, I actually grew up in FL(Tampa area). I'll take the rain, but not the severe thunderstorms. :)
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Quoting 694. TimSoCal:


Ah, I get it now... old predictions. Thanks for the info. I wish they had been right, in all honesty. We could use an El Nino 'round these parts.


Want me to send you some rain? There is too much here in (now sunny) south florida.
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Quoting 692. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The ECMWF and CFS were developing an El Nino by July. As we see..that hasn't happened, and we're actually very close to a La Nina. There is very little support for an El Nino this season, if any support at all.


Ah, I get it now... old predictions. Thanks for the info. I wish they had been right, in all honesty. We could use an El Nino 'round these parts.

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Well, just remember, it only takes one....
Link
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Quoting 675. TimSoCal:


I keep seeing people say this, and I don't understand it. I'd love the stronger rainy season, but the forecasts I've seen are calling for either neutral conditions to continue or for a La Nina to develop, and the current anomaly trend has been going downward. Can someone explain where these El Nino predicitons are coming from?

The ECMWF and CFS were developing an El Nino by July. As we see..that hasn't happened, and we're actually very close to a La Nina. There is very little support for an El Nino this season, if any support at all.
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Quoting 577. washingtonian115:
Nea should be out very soon.


well now..he said people..not the blog itself..LOL
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Quoting 687. sar2401:

Once that ULL moves across the gulf it will be replaced by another east of Florida. This has been the trend all season so far.
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Quoting 675. TimSoCal:


I keep seeing people say this, and I don't understand it. I'd love the stronger rainy season, but the forecasts I've seen are calling for either neutral conditions to continue or for a La Nina to develop, and the current anomaly trend has been going downward. Can someone explain where these El Nino predicitons are coming from?

I dont know. Perhaps they are talking about NEXT season?
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Quoting 675. TimSoCal:


I keep seeing people say this, and I don't understand it. I'd love the stronger rainy season, but the forecasts I've seen are calling for either neutral conditions to continue or for a La Nina to develop, and the current anomaly trend has been going downward. Can someone explain where these El Nino predicitons are coming from?


Good question, Tim, and good luck getting an answer! I asked on here this morning about where the TUTTs keep coming from that have been appearing in the Bahamas and South Florida for weeks on end now, but didn't get any takers on that one either.
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Double post....
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I am not saying it will develope. I think that is where the confusion is coming from. All I am saying is the TUTT feature is moving out and things could become more favorable down the road. That's all!

Scott, this is what the NHC says:

A WEAK TROUGH OFF S FLORIDA WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SAT THEN MOVE INLAND OVER TEXAS SUN.

I'm assuming this is what you mean by the TUTT. It's going to follow the southern periphery of a ridge that will stall out just north of the Gulf this weekend. It will get to Texas and then dissipate. I see no evidence this trough will end up anywhere near the Yucatan, as the GFS suggests, nor that it will have any effect on the AOI developing. It seems like you are reaching to find something that supports your view that this 0% AOI will turn into something more than what NHC suggests. Maybe it will, maybe it won't, but I'll go along with the NHC at this point until something clearly changes.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather