Which Hurricane Forecast Model Should You Trust?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:05 PM GMT on August 07, 2013

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) set a new record in 2012 for accuracy of their 1, 2, 3, and 4-day Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts, but had almost no skill making intensity forecasts, according to the 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report, issued in March 2013. The new records for track accuracy were set despite the fact that the season’s storms were harder than average to forecast. The average error in a 1-day forecast was 46 miles, and was 79 miles for 2 days, 116 miles for 3 days, 164 miles for 4 days, and 224 miles for 5 days. The official track forecast had a westward bias of 10 - 17 miles for 1 - 3 day forecasts (i.e., the official forecast tended to fall to the west of the verifying position), and was 38 and 75 miles too far to the northeast for the 4- and 5-day forecasts, respectively.


Figure 1. Verification of official NHC hurricane track forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2012. Over the past 15 - 20 years, 1 - 3 day track forecast errors have been reduced by about 60%. Track forecast error reductions of about 50% have occurred over the past ten years for 4- and 5-day forecasts. Image credit: 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

NHC Intensity Forecasts: Little Improvement Since 1990
Official NHC intensity forecasts did better than usual in 2012, and had errors lower than the 5-year average error for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. However, 2012's storms were easier to predict than usual, due to due to a lack of rapidly intensifying hurricanes. These rapid intensifiers are typically the source of the largest forecast errors. The skill of official NHC 24-hour intensity forecasts made in 2012 for the Atlantic basin were only about 15% better than a "no-skill" forecast; 2, 3, 4, and 5-day intensity forecasts had no skill.


Figure 2. Verification of official NHC hurricane intensity forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2012. Intensity forecasts have shown little to no improvement since 1990. Image credit: 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

Which Track Model Should You Trust?
As usual, in 2012 the official NHC forecast for Atlantic storms was almost as good as or better than any individual computer models--though NOAA's GFS model did slightly better than the NHC official forecast at 12, 24, and 48-hour periods, and the European model forecast was slightly better at 12-hour forecasts. Despite all the attention given to how the European Center (ECMWF) model outperformed the GFS model for Hurricane Sandy's track at long ranges, the GFS model actually outperformed the European model in 2012 when summing up all track forecasts made for all Atlantic named storms. This occurred, in part, because the European model made a few disastrously bad forecasts for Tropical Storm Debby when it was in the Gulf of Mexico and steering currents were weak. For several runs, the model predicted a Texas landfall, but Debby ended up moving east-northeast to make a Northwest Florida landfall, like the GFS model had predicted. However, the best-performing model averaged over the past three years has been the European Center model, with the GFS model a close second. Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing track models used to predict hurricane tracks. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on this page. Here are some of the better models NHC regularly looks at:

ECMWF: The European Center's global forecast model
GFS: NOAA's global forecast model
NOGAPS: The Navy's global forecast model (now defunct, replaced by the NAVGEM model in 2013)
UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office's global forecast model
GFDL: The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's hurricane model, initialized using GFS data
HWRF: The intended successor for the the GFDL hurricane model, also initialized using GFS data
CMC: The Canadian GEM model
BAMM: The very old Beta and Advection Model (Medium layer), which is still useful at longer ranges

If one averages together the track forecasts from the first six of these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it. As seen in Figure 3, the HWRF and UKMET were well behind the ECMWF and GFS in forecast accuracy in 2012, but were still respectable. The simple BAMM model did well at 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. The GFDL and CMC models did quite poorly compared to the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and HWRF. The Navy's NOGAPS model also did poorly in 2012, and has been retired. Its replacement for 2013 is called the NAVGEM model.


Figure 3. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2012, compared to a "no skill" model called "CLIPER5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence means that a storm will tend to keep going in the direction it's current going.) OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCA=one of the consensus models that lends together several of the above models; CMC=Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM) model; BAMM=Beta Advection Model (Medium depth.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2012 verification report.

Which Intensity Model Should You Trust?
Don't trust any of them. NHC has two main statistical intensity models, LGEM and DSHP (the SHIPS model with inland decay of a storm factored in.) In addition, four dynamical models that are also use to track hurricanes--the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and GFDL models--all offer intensity forecasts. With the exception of the GFS model, which had a skill just 5% better than a "no-skill" intensity forecast for predictions going out 36 hours, all of these models had no skill in their intensity forecasts during 2012. The ECMWF and HWRF models were the worst models for intensity forecasts of 3, 4, and 5 days, with a skill of 20% - 60% lower than a "no-skill" forecast. The LGEM model, which was a decent intensity model in 2011, tanked badly in 2012 and had near-zero skill. The only model that was any good in 2012 was the IVCN "consensus" model, which averages together the intensity forecasts of two or more of the intensity models such as LGEM, GFDL, HWRF, and DSHP.

Some Promising Models From the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)
Last year was the fourth year of a ten-year project, called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), aimed at reducing hurricane track and intensity errors by 50%. The new experimental models from HFIP generally performed poorly in 2012. However, the new FIM9 15-km global model was competitive with the ECMWF and GFS models for track, and the new CIRA Statistical Intensity Consensus (SPC3) model for intensity performed better than many of the traditional intensity models.

For those interested in learning more about the hurricane forecast models, NOAA has a 1-hour training video (updated for 2011.) Additional information about the guidance models used at the NHC can be found at NHC and the NOAA/HRD Hurricane FAQ.

Sources of Model Data
You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on wunderground's wundermap with the model layer turned on.
Longer ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site.
FSU's experimental hurricane forecast page (CMC, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM models)
NOAA's HFIP model comparison page (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, FIM9, UKMET, and CMC models.)
Experimental HFIP models

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. I plan on having a detailed update on Friday to discuss the latest long-range forecasts for the coming peak part of hurricane season.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting java162:


very broad low.. 108hrs...hasnt moved much


I can't see it bro.
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1885. java162


very broad low.. 108hrs...hasnt moved much
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CMC sure likes to develop lows off the East Coast...



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1883. SLU
Quoting 1880. pottery:

4-letter words (especially that one) are NOT encouraged on the blogs.......

:):))


lol

That name still strikes fear in the hearts of many.
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1882. SLU
Quoting 1879. washingtonian115:
It sure has been very 2004 ish in terms of local weather pattern.I'm waiting on a Jeanne Charley,Ivan and Frances at any moment..(J/K about the last part)


lol

Well if we do get them it's going to be and exciting (scary) next two months.
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Quoting 1860. PalmBeachWeather:
mik......Hell if I know...Indian River Guy is our contact...I will do what I can... Hope Dex is ok


Thanks. Dex is lying at my feet giving me the look to go outside. We just went outside an hour ago. It's too hot. Wait. Good boy. (sighs, rolls onto side)
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1880. pottery
Quoting washingtonian115:
It sure has been very 2004 ish in terms of local weather pattern.I'm waiting on a Jeanne Charley,Ivan and Frances at any moment..(J/K about the last part)

4-letter words (especially that one) are NOT encouraged on the blogs.......

:):))
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Quoting 1871. SLU:
Worst-than-2004-type pattern predicted by the Brazilian model for ASO in its latest forecast.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
It sure has been very 2004 ish in terms of local weather pattern.I'm waiting on a Jeanne Charley,Ivan and Frances at any moment..(J/K about the last part)
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Quoting 1819. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Obnoxious orange bar is obnoxious.

My area, and much of Texas, has been under a Heat Advisory for the past week... I'm used to the Orange bar now.
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Blue Green Algae



This is one tough organism. It can be found everywhere on the planet. They've even theorized it could be placed in warheads and fired at Venus to create another earth (Venus is CO2, BGA eats it, makes oxygen, eventually creates rain, which eventually reaches the surface and viola! Earth2)

From Wikipedia:
Cyanobacteria are arguably the most successful group of microorganisms on earth. They are the most genetically diverse; they occupy a broad range of habitats across all latitudes, widespread in freshwater, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and they are found in the most extreme niches such as hot springs, salt works, and hypersaline bays. Photoautotrophic, oxygen-producing cyanobacteria created the conditions in the planet's early atmosphere that directed the evolution of aerobic metabolism and eukarotic photosynthesis. Cyanobacteria fulfill vital ecological functions in the world's oceans, being important contributors to global carbon and nitrogen budgets.
– Stewart and Falconer

It also grows in the cooling systems of nuclear reactors.
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Quoting java162:
in 3 days.... something seems to be brewing near the African coast!



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1874. guygee
For today's inspirational reading:
Tomgram: Michael Klare, How to Fry a Planet

The article discusses ongoing changes to BAU (Business As Usual) that do not reduce anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.
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1873. pottery
Quoting HoraceDebussyJones:


But...this would not be a neccessary evil if the state would do the right thing regarding Big Sugar and all of the land held by these government supported companies. The state has had chances but continues to lease state owned land, which could be used to restore part of the natural flow of water into the everglades. Add to that all of the harmful chemicals from fertilizers used in this region, that are now in the lake and subsequently being released into the estuaries, and you have a natural disaster that does NOT need to happen. Fact that state has recently agreed to 30 year leases rather than the standard 2 year lease means that this will continue to be a problem, possibly permanent, long into the future. It is a criminal, crying shame!

Until ''the people'' make the right noises in the right places (very hard to do, because newspapers etc are beholden to Big Agro Advertising $$$), the problem is not going to be dealt with in a Sensitive way by the Authorities.

Current trends with Facebook and Twitter work very well, to get facts and figures out to the population.

Politicians WILL respond to public pressure, but only when this pressure becomes truly public.
They hate to be embarrassed, and will act when it is clear to them that votes are dancing.....
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Quoting 1863. GTstormChaserCaleb:
12z Experimental FIM-8:





Thats the 850 winds, so really on the 10m winds the storm is only a 50-60mph storm.
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1871. SLU
Worst-than-2004-type pattern predicted by the Brazilian model for ASO in its latest forecast.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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Quoting 1849. Civicane49:
Henriette will cross the 140W into the CPHC area of responsibility by tonight. NHC will release its final advisory at 11 pm EDT.

Finally a hurricane into the cphc I believe the last one was Felicia or guillermo.
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2013 Bottlenose Dolphin Unusual Mortality Event in Florida



"Under the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972 (as amended), an Unusual Mortality Event (UME) has been declared for bottlenose dolphins in the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) System along the east coast of Florida from January 2013 through the present. Elevated strandings of bottlenose dolphins have occurred in the northern and central Indian River Lagoon system in Brevard County.

Current bottlenose dolphin strandings are almost three times the historical average for the Indian River Lagoon. All age classes of bottlenose dolphins are involved, but the majority of animals are older adults and a few juveniles.

The most significant and unifying gross necropsy finding is emaciation. As part of the UME investigation process, an independent team of scientists (Investigative Team) is being assembled to coordinate with the Working Group on Marine Mammal Unusual Mortality Events to review the data collected and to determine the next steps.

In addition to the increased dolphin strandings, a separate UME was declared by NOAA Fisheries in April 2013 for elevated manatee mortalities in the Brevard County. From July 25, 2012 to June 14, 2013, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWCC) has documented 250 manatee deaths in Brevard County. A cause for these mortalities has not been determined and the ongoing investigation is being led by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and FWCC."
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2012 was a great yr for fishing seatrout but 2013 where are they? e.cen.florida
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Hmmmmmmm....

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I think IndianRiverGuy is live on Newschannel 5 talking about the algae disaster.
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1865. java162
in 3 days.... something seems to be brewing near the African coast!

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12z Experimental FIM-8:



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Quoting 1850. TopOfTheLakeFL:
It is unfortunately a necessary evil.. the lake went over 16 ft today despites all efforts releasing water both east and west.. the level is still rising.. I feel bad for the environment, the fish, and other wildife.. The rich peoples' backyard views have been compromised and they can cannot do any kayaking, wake boarding, or jet skiing.. It is horrible but if the the lake was to get to 17 or 18 ft the dike could fail and 1000s of people could lose their homes and lives would be in danger. I think in this case human life trumps lifestlye and the adverse side environmental effects on the lagoon.


But...this would not be a neccessary evil if the state would do the right thing regarding Big Sugar and all of the land held by these government supported companies. The state has had chances but continues to lease state owned land, which could be used to restore part of the natural flow of water into the everglades. Add to that all of the harmful chemicals from fertilizers used in this region, that are now in the lake and subsequently being released into the estuaries, and you have a natural disaster that does NOT need to happen. Fact that state has recently agreed to 30 year leases rather than the standard 2 year lease means that this will continue to be a problem, possibly permanent, long into the future. It is a criminal, crying shame!
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1861. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LABUYO
5:00 AM PhST August 9 2013
================================================= ==

The Low Pressure Area outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "LABUYO"

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Labuyo (1004 hPa) located at 12.2N 136.2E or 1150 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 5 knots.

Additional Information
==========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression "LABUYO" is too far to directly affect any part of the country. However, the Low Pressure Area is now in the vicinity of Cuyo, Palawan (11.4°N, 121.4°E) embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone will bring rainshowers and thunderstorm over southern Luzon, Visayas and northern Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
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Quoting 1852. mikatnight:


Hey PBW, thanks for the post. Any recommended links? His last entry on his FB page was 2 days ago.
mik......Hell if I know...Indian River Guy is our contact...I will do what I can... Hope Dex is ok
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Quoting 1851. PalmBeachWeather:
I hate to sound like a broken record. Things are getting worse this hour. The blue-green algae is over taking our waterways here..... Public safety is a big issue right now..But in the long run marine life are at stake... Screw the people that are worried about property values...We now have a "MAJOR" problem...


I posted this last night. A photo I got from a friend at WINK-TV. Good aerial photo of the release.

Link
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Quoting 1812. PalmBeachWeather:
.FYI...I'm sure many of you are familiar with our friend -Indian River Guy_...He has not been here for a while...He is our local hero. His name is Marty, He is AKA "Indian River Keeper" on the treasure coast...We have a local disaster here with the discharge from Lake Okeechobee. The estuary is a total mess with the algae bloom....Marty is working is butt off trying to stop the problem in Stuart Florida....A massive fish-kill is a possibility.... Marty is looking for a fix before it gets worse....This beautiful area is getting ruined...No swimming or wading already....Marty is appearing on the local media pleading for help for the Indian River Lagoon.... 4 billions of gallons of water is released each day from Lake Okeechobee each day because of the fear the dykes of the lake breaching.... I pray Marty can make the difference.... Please give Marty help from a prayer or whatever we can do...He is the best
It makes me cry..What do we do now.........Is is the big government authorities involved now...I don't know....
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Quoting 1827. Patrap:


Say, Patrap, oh map-maestro, you got anything on the winds & air currents at various levels for that low over the Bahamas?
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The Indian River Lagoon: An estuary in distress




"In spring 2011, an algal "superbloom" occurred in the portion of the system known as Banana River Lagoon and eventually spread into northern Indian River Lagoon and farther north into the Mosquito Lagoon (see map). The immense bloom covered approximately 130,000 acres and led to a noticeable reduction in water quality. Concurrently, a lesser bloom extended from just north of Melbourne south to the Vero Beach-Fort Pierce area (see map).

Approximately 47,000 acres of seagrasses were lost, a reduction of about 60 percent. These blooms and the resulting seagrass decline far exceeded any documented or remembered events in terms of geographic scale, bloom intensity and duration.

The magnitude of the seagrass loss is alarming because seagrass is:

An indicator of the lagoon's health
A food source for manatees
A nursery, refuge and a place of forage for a variety of fish and other marine life

In economic terms, the 2011 seagrass loss represents a potential reduction of $235 million to $470 million in commercial and recreational fisheries value in 2012."
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Flash Flood Emergency in PA:

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
456 PM EDT THU AUG 8 2013

PAC021-111-082330-
/O.CON.KCTP.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-130808T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CAMBRIA PA-SOMERSET PA-
456 PM EDT THU AUG 8 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET AND SOUTHWESTERN CAMBRIA COUNTIES...

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...

AT 451 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET AND
SOUTHWESTERN CAMBRIA COUNTIES.

WATER RESCUES...FLOODING OF HOMES...AND DEEP FLOWING WATER OVER
ROADWAYS IN AND NEAR JOHNSTOWN HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
FLOODING SEVERITY.

THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING EVENT.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WINDBER...
BELMONT...ELIM...JOHNSTOWN AND WESTMONT.
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1853. java162



18z gfs running..... out to 24hrs
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Quoting 1812. PalmBeachWeather:
.FYI...I'm sure many of you are familiar with our friend -Indian River Guy_...He has not been here for a while...He is our local hero. His name is Marty, He is AKA "Indian River Keeper" on the treasure coast...We have a local disaster here with the discharge from Lake Okeechobee. The estuary is a total mess with the algae bloom....Marty is working is butt off trying to stop the problem in Stuart Florida....A massive fish-kill is a possibility.... Marty is looking for a fix before it gets worse....This beautiful area is getting ruined...No swimming or wading already....Marty is appearing on the local media pleading for help for the Indian River Lagoon.... 4 billions of gallons of water is released each day from Lake Okeechobee each day because of the fear the dykes of the lake breaching.... I pray Marty can make the difference.... Please give Marty help from a prayer or whatever we can do...He is the best


Hey PBW, thanks for the post. Any recommended links? His last entry on his FB page was 2 days ago.
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Quoting 1812. PalmBeachWeather:
.FYI...I'm sure many of you are familiar with our friend -Indian River Guy_...He has not been here for a while...He is our local hero. His name is Marty, He is AKA "Indian River Keeper" on the treasure coast...We have a local disaster here with the discharge from Lake Okeechobee. The estuary is a total mess with the algae bloom....Marty is working is butt off trying to stop the problem in Stuart Florida....A massive fish-kill is a possibility.... Marty is looking for a fix before it gets worse....This beautiful area is getting ruined...No swimming or wading already....Marty is appearing on the local media pleading for help for the Indian River Lagoon.... 4 billions of gallons of water is released each day from Lake Okeechobee each day because of the fear the dykes of the lake breaching.... I pray Marty can make the difference.... Please give Marty help from a prayer or whatever we can do...He is the best
I hate to sound like a broken record. Things are getting worse this hour. The blue-green algae is over taking our waterways here..... Public safety is a big issue right now..But in the long run marine life are at stake... Screw the people that are worried about property values...We now have a "MAJOR" problem...
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Quoting 1812. PalmBeachWeather:
.FYI...I'm sure many of you are familiar with our friend -Indian River Guy_...He has not been here for a while...He is our local hero. His name is Marty, He is AKA "Indian River Keeper" on the treasure coast...We have a local disaster here with the discharge from Lake Okeechobee. The estuary is a total mess with the algae bloom....Marty is working is butt off trying to stop the problem in Stuart Florida....A massive fish-kill is a possibility.... Marty is looking for a fix before it gets worse....This beautiful area is getting ruined...No swimming or wading already....Marty is appearing on the local media pleading for help for the Indian River Lagoon.... 4 billions of gallons of water is released each day from Lake Okeechobee each day because of the fear the dykes of the lake breaching.... I pray Marty can make the difference.... Please give Marty help from a prayer or whatever we can do...He is the best
It is unfortunately a necessary evil.. the lake went over 16 ft today despite all efforts releasing water both east and west.. the level is still rising.. I feel bad for the environment, the fish, and other wildife.. The rich peoples' backyard views have been compromised and they can cannot do any kayaking, wake boarding, or jet skiing.. It is horrible but if the the lake was to get to 17 or 18 ft the dike could fail and 1000s of people could lose their homes and lives would be in danger. I think in this case human life trumps lifestlye and the adverse environmental side effects on the lagoon.


http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xreposito ry/sfwmd_repository_pdf/lokstg.pdf



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurr icane
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Henriette will cross the 140W into the CPHC area of responsibility by tonight. NHC will release its final advisory at 11 pm EDT.

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Quoting 1812. PalmBeachWeather:
.FYI...I'm sure many of you are familiar with our friend -Indian River Guy_...He has not been here for a while...He is our local hero. His name is Marty, He is AKA "Indian River Keeper" on the treasure coast...We have a local disaster here with the discharge from Lake Okeechobee. The estuary is a total mess with the algae bloom....Marty is working is butt off trying to stop the problem in Stuart Florida....A massive fish-kill is a possibility.... Marty is looking for a fix before it gets worse....This beautiful area is getting ruined...No swimming or wading already....Marty is appearing on the local media pleading for help for the Indian River Lagoon.... 4 billions of gallons of water is released each day from Lake Okeechobee each day because of the fear the dykes of the lake breaching.... I pray Marty can make the difference.... Please give Marty help from a prayer or whatever we can do...He is the best


Thanks for posting this, PBW ---- IRG is a hero in my book, for his valiant efforts on behalf of Florida's marine environment. But we wouldn't know about this if you hadn't posted!
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Quoting 1835. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The cloud pattern associated with Henriette has become better organized over the past several hours. Core convection has weakened slightly though. Solid Category 2.



Very pretty, well-developed storm. Isn't that what everyone's looking for?
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"No pouches will be tracked on Friday 9 August. The federal budget sequestration is being applied at the Naval Postgraduate School as furloughs every Friday. The last Furlough Friday will be next week, 16 August. Employees are forbidden to work, under threat of termination." ~ NPS
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HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013

THE EYE OF HENRIETTE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE PICTURES TODAY. THERE HAS ONLY BEEN A SINGLE LOWER
RESOLUTION AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS DURING THE PAST 12 TO 15
HOURS...SO IT HAS NOT BEEN POSSIBLE TO MONITOR THE INNER-CORE
STRUCTURAL CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TODAY. THE
LASTEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HENRIETTE SHOULD BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE SHEAR IS FORECST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. DUE
TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...THE UPDATED WIND SPEED FORECAST
IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST THEREAFTER.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OR 265 AT 9 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A NARROW RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE NHC TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE WILL CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BEFORE
09/0600 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 17.1N 139.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.9N 140.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 16.4N 142.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 15.8N 145.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 15.1N 148.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 14.0N 154.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 13.0N 160.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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Quoting 1793. Patrap:

Come on Humberto 2.0
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that flare up near Hispaniola, I wonder if that is what Accuweather has been saying could develop in a few days ?
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Quoting 1839. SuperStorm093:


NAM doesnt even go out to hour 88.


Yeah, I caught that and corrected.
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1840. barbamz
Quoting 1809. LAbonbon:

And OMG - pantyhose in 100-degree weather? I wonder what the temperature cutoff is where it reverts back! One of the best things when I moved to the Gulf from New England was the relaxation of my company's dress code; I was thrilled when my female co-workers told me nylons were not required. (In fact they looked at me quite strangely when I showed up on my first day there, as no one in their right minds in Louisiana would wear nylons in the summertime.)


Well, LAbonbon, you won't have seen me wearing any nylons earlier during the heat weave, even in office (but even my main office isn't that official, thankfully). Most of my collegues wear casual clothes as I do. And I chose to stay in my home office during those days (as my main work office is under a roof and very hot. My sister in the University of Frankfurt even got 89,6F = 32C in her office!), where dress code is much relaxed :)
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Quoting 1836. Sfloridacat5:
Nam 88 hours with the GOM blob/moisture. Ends up breaking up with some of the energy going into Mexico and some into Texas.


NAM doesnt even go out to hour 88.
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Had a few hot days in Cayman this week , 109*F with heat index.Cloudy cover this afternoon is a welcome break , as small as it is...

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1837. Walshy
Just what I don't need here in western NC..

Special Statement
Statement as of 5:15 PM EDT on August 08, 2013

... Storms producing heavy rain this evening...

Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area this evening.
A few of the stronger storms will produce rainfall rates of 3 to
4 inches per hour.
Most of these strong storms are in an area for
about 30 to 45 minutes before moving to the northeast. Never the
less... heavy rain will reduce visibilities to near zero and may
lead to ponding of water on roadways. Exercise caution then
traveling this evening.
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Nam 42 hours corrected with the GOM blob/moisture. Ends up breaking up with some of the energy going into Mexico and some into Texas.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather