Which Hurricane Forecast Model Should You Trust?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:05 PM GMT on August 07, 2013

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) set a new record in 2012 for accuracy of their 1, 2, 3, and 4-day Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts, but had almost no skill making intensity forecasts, according to the 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report, issued in March 2013. The new records for track accuracy were set despite the fact that the season’s storms were harder than average to forecast. The average error in a 1-day forecast was 46 miles, and was 79 miles for 2 days, 116 miles for 3 days, 164 miles for 4 days, and 224 miles for 5 days. The official track forecast had a westward bias of 10 - 17 miles for 1 - 3 day forecasts (i.e., the official forecast tended to fall to the west of the verifying position), and was 38 and 75 miles too far to the northeast for the 4- and 5-day forecasts, respectively.


Figure 1. Verification of official NHC hurricane track forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2012. Over the past 15 - 20 years, 1 - 3 day track forecast errors have been reduced by about 60%. Track forecast error reductions of about 50% have occurred over the past ten years for 4- and 5-day forecasts. Image credit: 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

NHC Intensity Forecasts: Little Improvement Since 1990
Official NHC intensity forecasts did better than usual in 2012, and had errors lower than the 5-year average error for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. However, 2012's storms were easier to predict than usual, due to due to a lack of rapidly intensifying hurricanes. These rapid intensifiers are typically the source of the largest forecast errors. The skill of official NHC 24-hour intensity forecasts made in 2012 for the Atlantic basin were only about 15% better than a "no-skill" forecast; 2, 3, 4, and 5-day intensity forecasts had no skill.


Figure 2. Verification of official NHC hurricane intensity forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2012. Intensity forecasts have shown little to no improvement since 1990. Image credit: 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

Which Track Model Should You Trust?
As usual, in 2012 the official NHC forecast for Atlantic storms was almost as good as or better than any individual computer models--though NOAA's GFS model did slightly better than the NHC official forecast at 12, 24, and 48-hour periods, and the European model forecast was slightly better at 12-hour forecasts. Despite all the attention given to how the European Center (ECMWF) model outperformed the GFS model for Hurricane Sandy's track at long ranges, the GFS model actually outperformed the European model in 2012 when summing up all track forecasts made for all Atlantic named storms. This occurred, in part, because the European model made a few disastrously bad forecasts for Tropical Storm Debby when it was in the Gulf of Mexico and steering currents were weak. For several runs, the model predicted a Texas landfall, but Debby ended up moving east-northeast to make a Northwest Florida landfall, like the GFS model had predicted. However, the best-performing model averaged over the past three years has been the European Center model, with the GFS model a close second. Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing track models used to predict hurricane tracks. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on this page. Here are some of the better models NHC regularly looks at:

ECMWF: The European Center's global forecast model
GFS: NOAA's global forecast model
NOGAPS: The Navy's global forecast model (now defunct, replaced by the NAVGEM model in 2013)
UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office's global forecast model
GFDL: The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's hurricane model, initialized using GFS data
HWRF: The intended successor for the the GFDL hurricane model, also initialized using GFS data
CMC: The Canadian GEM model
BAMM: The very old Beta and Advection Model (Medium layer), which is still useful at longer ranges

If one averages together the track forecasts from the first six of these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it. As seen in Figure 3, the HWRF and UKMET were well behind the ECMWF and GFS in forecast accuracy in 2012, but were still respectable. The simple BAMM model did well at 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. The GFDL and CMC models did quite poorly compared to the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and HWRF. The Navy's NOGAPS model also did poorly in 2012, and has been retired. Its replacement for 2013 is called the NAVGEM model.


Figure 3. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2012, compared to a "no skill" model called "CLIPER5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence means that a storm will tend to keep going in the direction it's current going.) OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCA=one of the consensus models that lends together several of the above models; CMC=Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM) model; BAMM=Beta Advection Model (Medium depth.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2012 verification report.

Which Intensity Model Should You Trust?
Don't trust any of them. NHC has two main statistical intensity models, LGEM and DSHP (the SHIPS model with inland decay of a storm factored in.) In addition, four dynamical models that are also use to track hurricanes--the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and GFDL models--all offer intensity forecasts. With the exception of the GFS model, which had a skill just 5% better than a "no-skill" intensity forecast for predictions going out 36 hours, all of these models had no skill in their intensity forecasts during 2012. The ECMWF and HWRF models were the worst models for intensity forecasts of 3, 4, and 5 days, with a skill of 20% - 60% lower than a "no-skill" forecast. The LGEM model, which was a decent intensity model in 2011, tanked badly in 2012 and had near-zero skill. The only model that was any good in 2012 was the IVCN "consensus" model, which averages together the intensity forecasts of two or more of the intensity models such as LGEM, GFDL, HWRF, and DSHP.

Some Promising Models From the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)
Last year was the fourth year of a ten-year project, called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), aimed at reducing hurricane track and intensity errors by 50%. The new experimental models from HFIP generally performed poorly in 2012. However, the new FIM9 15-km global model was competitive with the ECMWF and GFS models for track, and the new CIRA Statistical Intensity Consensus (SPC3) model for intensity performed better than many of the traditional intensity models.

For those interested in learning more about the hurricane forecast models, NOAA has a 1-hour training video (updated for 2011.) Additional information about the guidance models used at the NHC can be found at NHC and the NOAA/HRD Hurricane FAQ.

Sources of Model Data
You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on wunderground's wundermap with the model layer turned on.
Longer ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site.
FSU's experimental hurricane forecast page (CMC, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM models)
NOAA's HFIP model comparison page (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, FIM9, UKMET, and CMC models.)
Experimental HFIP models

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. I plan on having a detailed update on Friday to discuss the latest long-range forecasts for the coming peak part of hurricane season.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Russian Market ‏@russian_market 3 min
Heavy rain alarm for Zurich. You have 50 minutes, Zürcher!

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Wow, you know it's slow when you come back about 15-20 minutes later and the blog is on the same page.
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Quoting 110. NasBahMan:


Not so in the Bahamas, we have had one of the wettest rainy seasons on record. Since the last week of May to now we have had in excess of 50" of rain.


Agreed, a very wet rainy season here.
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Some of you people are so funny. Living here in South Florida, I've been watching the tropics for over 40 years. During most season's things don't begin to get active until the last week of August when there's almost always at least one name storm somewhere in the Atlantic. Just one example, 1965, Hurricane Betsy was only the second named storm of the season and did not strike South Florida until the 8th of September as a strong cat.-3. So everybody calm down and relax. The best is yet to come.
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Quoting 128. Lonewulf:
I've been following WU for several years, joined a few years ago, rarely make any kind of posts except to ask a question on occasion. I've been interested in Hurricanes/TC's since Hugo hit me in the face back in 1989 when I lived in SC. Since I started learning/following the TC annual cycles I've noticed that it's rare for any preseason prediction to be exact on the types and number of storms, and it's rare for the models to be accurate more than about 96 hours out regarding development. For those calling for this season to be a bust, be cautious the real season hasn't began yet and won't for about another 2 weeks. If this time next month we are still sitting on less than 5 named storms, then call away. There are some very smart individuals who post on the blogs here with access to more information than the average troll among us has access to. Take notice of what they and the good Doc posts, they end up being slightly more accurate in the long run even if they are off on a particular storm or development.

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Quoting 120. NasBahMan:


Our normal rainfall for the last week of May to the first week of August is 18", so it is a little unusual for us to get 50". Over the last 10 years we have been averaging around 50" of rain for the entire year.


We had an usually wet May up here, 20.6" of rain from then until now. Statistically normal amount for that time period is only 9.3" so this has been an active wet season.
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130. Skyepony (Mod)
GIL made it to the Central Pacific. 10W is MANGKHUT, hitting Vietnam (on MIMIC) & 95W is new.

TRMM of MANGKHUT coming into Vietnam with some heavy rains..click pic for a very large quicktime movie of the pass.

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We could get a Paloma or Lenny again in November. It takes only one to make it a bad season..
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I've been following WU for several years, joined a few years ago, rarely make any kind of posts except to ask a question on occasion. I've been interested in Hurricanes/TC's since Hugo hit me in the face back in 1989 when I lived in SC. Since I started learning/following the TC annual cycles I've noticed that it's rare for any preseason prediction to be exact on the types and number of storms, and it's rare for the models to be accurate more than about 96 hours out regarding development. For those calling for this season to be a bust, be cautious the real season hasn't began yet and won't for about another 2 weeks. If this time next month we are still sitting on less than 5 named storms, then call away. There are some very smart individuals who post on the blogs here with access to more information than the average troll among us has access to. Take notice of what they and the good Doc posts, they end up being slightly more accurate in the long run even if they are off on a particular storm or development.
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Lake Okeechobee Daily Summary at 15.99 feet.


Corps of Engineers getting sensitive
Lake Okeechobee Releases
Setting the Record Straight


Excerpt:

The SFWMD reported today that this is the wettest start to the annual wet season in 45 years, with the district-wide average rainfall for the last month at 10.36 inches.
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Hopefully, the NCEP desk will update the Caribbean discussion later today; these current Caribbean waves looked pretty sickly yesterday (as reflected in their discussion below from yesterday), but they are looking much more robust today as they enter the Caribbean.

I am thinking that they are taking their time today with the analysis in light of the bigger moisture envelope and enhanced convection we are seeing this morning and afternoon.
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HOUSTON –- Not only will Wednesday be very hot, we’ll get our first look at the latest round of African dust to move into the skies over Texas. Houston residents will notice a slightly different color to the sky due to the haze. The dust comes from the Saharan Desert, reducing air quality.



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Quoting 122. ILwthrfan:
We were forecasted to pick up anywhere from 1-2" over the next two days, that was yesterday. Not looking good for me as last nights activity to my south has shut off the moisture flow 1 and is providing a thick canopy for today that will lower instability 2. Been dry up here for the last 2 weeks or so. Maybe 1/2". Need more.


I'm getting rain already.
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Quoting 118. Stoopid1:


Indeed, and Debby was a nasty system up here. A lot of flooding problems in much of North Florida, got 12" here in three days from her.


I'm glad I could help. :) By the way. I think the only ally I had then with Debbie was TropicsweatherPR.
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We were forecasted to pick up anywhere from 1-2" over the next two days, that was yesterday. Not looking good for me as last nights activity to my south has shut off the moisture flow 1 and is providing a thick canopy for today that will lower instability 2. Been dry up here for the last 2 weeks or so. Maybe 1/2". Need more.

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Quoting 52. Tazmanian:
Well if we don't see any storms by Augs 20th am calling this season a bust


You mean by October 20th.
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Quoting 114. CaribBoy:


Yeah I heard of that. But in average the Bahamas are wetter than the N Leewards.


Our normal rainfall for the last week of May to the first week of August is 18", so it is a little unusual for us to get 50". Over the last 10 years we have been averaging around 50" of rain for the entire year.
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Surface low pressure system is developing in the eastern Caribbean Sea, with limited convection and a slight curved band trying to develop, with cu field present and moving in towards the developing low.
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Quoting 115. Grothar:
Nice blog Doc. I know how the GFS felt with Debbie. I was the only one saying it was going to North Florida. :)

The other wave is looking better.



Indeed, and Debby was a nasty system up here. A lot of flooding problems in much of North Florida, got 12" here in three days from her.
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Re-post of the Martinique Radar site for the waves in the Antilles and (yesterdays) Caribbean Desk discussion on them; they have not updated their Update for today yet and the timing is a little bit off; not their fault but Mother Natures' timetable:

Radar:

Link

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2013

......POTENT TUTT IS RETROGRESSING TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA INTO THE BAHAMAS/CUBA. THE TUTT WILL CENTER OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS EXTENDING INTO HISPANIOLA BY 24 HRS...MOVE LITTLE BY 48 HRS...TO EXTEND OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS-SOUTHEASTERN CUBA-JAMAICA BY 72 HRS. AT LOW LEVELS...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND NORTHWESTERLIES ARE ESTABLISHING OVER THE BAHAMAS WHILE STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER CUBA-GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS IS ADVECTED OVER WARM WATERS. BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE TAIL OF A FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AS THIS INTERACTS WITH UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 36 HRS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED BY 36-60 HRS IN INTERACTION WITH APPROACHING TUTT TO SUSTAIN SIMILAR AMOUNTS WITH MAXIMA DECREASING TO 15MM. BY 60-84 HRS...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS TO REESTABLISH WHILE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DECREASES. STILL...TUTT WILL ENHANCE SHALLOW AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUSTAINING ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM OVER CUBA...AND 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA. OVER HISPANIOLA... EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO INCREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM AS EARLY AS DAY 02 UNDER INFLUENCE OF TUTT.

NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 43W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. THIS WAVE WILL ENTER FRENCH GUIANA BY 54-60 HRS PRODUCING ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS. THIS WAVE WILL BE MOSTLY CONSTRAINED TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

EASTERLY WAVE IS ORGANIZING AT 53W AND WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE AND MEANDER INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS WAVE WILL HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON CONVECTION WITH STRONGEST ENHANCEMENT ON DAY 03 ACROSS THE FRENCH ANTILLES INTO THE LEEWARDS/VIRGIN ISLANDS.


Link:

Link
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Quoting 113. Tropicsweatherpr:


PR is over 16 inches above the average so far in 2013.

Link


We are in a dry bubble :( lol
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Nice blog Doc. I know how the GFS felt with Debbie. I was the only one saying it was going to North Florida. :)

The other wave is looking better.

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Quoting 110. NasBahMan:


Not so in the Bahamas, we have had one of the wettest rainy seasons on record. Since the last week of May to now we have had in excess of 50" of rain.


Yeah I heard of that. But in average the Bahamas are wetter than the N Leewards.
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Quoting 109. CaribBoy:
Average rainfall for august is 4 inches / 100mm .... we are VERY far from that! not even 10mm so far.


PR is over 16 inches above the average so far in 2013.

Link
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Bored to see this every time... 2013 is not normal to me.
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Mangkhut appears to be making landfall in Vietnam;

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Quoting 104. CaribBoy:


In august 2010... the Lesser Antilles were wetter. So the Atlantic was probably wetter too. This august is DRY :(


Not so in the Bahamas, we have had one of the wettest rainy seasons on record. Since the last week of May to now we have had in excess of 50" of rain.
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Average rainfall for august is 4 inches / 100mm .... we are VERY far from that! not even 10mm so far.
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Under a flash flood watch...wondering if the Fat Lady has sang yet.
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HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
800 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...HENRIETTE IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTERACT WITH
MORE STABLE AIR. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR NO
CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

HENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND
36 HOURS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...FORCING HENRIETTE TO MOVE ON MORE
WESTERLY TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE TURN. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL SO FAR THIS SEASON.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 16.2N 134.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 16.8N 136.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 17.5N 138.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 17.5N 140.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 17.2N 142.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 16.0N 146.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 15.0N 152.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 13.5N 159.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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Quoting 99. Tropicsweatherpr:


But this is not 1992 with a strong El Nino. ENSO will be between Cold Neutral and Weak La Nina.


Exactly,the season won't be a bust,just give it a chance. Twenty years ago before the uptick in Atlantic tropical activity we didn't really get to concerned with storms forming before the end of August beginning of September.
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Quoting 99. Tropicsweatherpr:


But this is not 1992 with a strong El Nino. ENSO will be between Cold Neutral and Weak La Nina.


Rain still lacking in my area though.
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Quoting 73. CybrTeddy:
The attitude on here is so much like it was in August 2010 it's actually funny. People then too were backtracking their forecasts, stating the season wouldn't live up to expectations, and we weren't on the "D" storm yet like we are right now. The CSU and TSR haven't dropped their predictions and to be honest neither have I. People please for once have patience. This isn't sports, you have to wait for things to happen. This season will be an August 20th - October 10th season in terms of activity.


In august 2010... the Lesser Antilles were wetter. So the Atlantic was probably wetter too. This august is DRY :(
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The WPAC has new Invest 95W.
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Quoting 92. guygee:
I would like to see the error bars for Doc's Fig. 1 graph. Some storms may be very difficult to predict even the track, especially right around the time of cyclogenesis and full deep formation. The NHC usually acknowledges uncertain track forecasts in their discussion.

Sometimes the track of the storm may vary significantly depending on the intensity of the storm (for example, shallow: west until landfall; deep: northwest and recurving). In these cases if the NHC has little to no skill predicting intensity, then it follows there is little to no skill with the track. During the time when a storm is ill-formed is often the time it is the most difficult to predict.


All of the data from the NHC verification reports that the Doc has in his post are only for storms at the Tropical Depression level or greater. None of that data is for invest systems.
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Weather doesn't care what man thinks or believes, it just is. And the season will spit out whatever number of storms as it pleases regardless of what you think it should do.
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Quoting 94. NasBahMan:


In 1992 the ACE up to this point was 0.0!!!!!!!!!


But this is not 1992 with a strong El Nino. ENSO will be between Cold Neutral and Weak La Nina.
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Quoting 93. catastropheadjuster:


Are you doing good after the surgery? I sure hope so. I'm gonna start pricing today. I sure hope you get to go back to work, I know your probably ready, being off all this time. I think where still going to have a decent season, like some one said it only takes one to remember a season, I don't wish for no devastation just wish we had something to watch and track then it could just dissipate.

sheri

I so agree with this.... "It only Takes 1" :o(

I just hope that 1 is not here just saying

Taco :o)
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Quoting 89. weathermanwannabe:


I was being conservative and looking at the peak period........A five storm Cape Verde cluster between late-August and mid-September and another 5 between October and November would get the experts in their ball park.

However, as I noted yesterday, higher numbers may increase the overall odds of a potential strike but the actual numbers become irrelevant if one or two majors strike a devastating blow in the Caribbean or US.


We have to see how the season ends up (Quality vs Quantity) So far quantity is ahead.
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Quoting 81. Tropicsweatherpr:


ACE is very low 6.555 and that is below average for August 7.

That would be below what the experts are forecasting. August with 3 and September with a big burst of activity (7-8) and with 1-2 in October is what I see.


That is still close to the 19 Storms I started with at the beginning of the Season..... so I'll stick with it.... Not a Bust for me anyway....


Taco :o)
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Quoting 81. Tropicsweatherpr:


ACE is very low 6.555 and that is below average for August 7.

That would be below what the experts are forecasting. August with 3 and September with a big burst of activity (7-8) and with 1-2 in October is what I see.


In 1992 the ACE up to this point was 0.0!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting 82. taco2me61:

It "Never Is" when you have to deal with a roof Sweetie.... I know I replaced 4 on my street back in 04 after Ivan blew off shingles everywhere.... I'm on right now because I had Neck surgery back in June but hope to be back at work next Tuesday.... Don't let the prices scare you because they are so much higher now than what they were back in 04....

Taco :o)


Are you doing good after the surgery? I sure hope so. I'm gonna start pricing today. I sure hope you get to go back to work, I know your probably ready, being off all this time. I think where still going to have a decent season, like some one said it only takes one to remember a season, I don't wish for no devastation just wish we had something to watch and track then it could just dissipate.

sheri
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I would like to see the error bars for Doc's Fig. 1 graph. Some storms may be very difficult to predict even the track, especially right around the time of cyclogenesis and full deep formation. The NHC usually acknowledges uncertain track forecasts in their discussion.

Sometimes the track of the storm may vary significantly depending on the intensity of the storm (for example, shallow: west until landfall; deep: northwest and recurving). In these cases if the NHC has little to no skill predicting intensity, then it follows there is little to no skill with the track. During the time when a storm is ill-formed is often the time it is the most difficult to predict.
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Yep, when/if things ramp up mall those saying bust will be saying I predicted all these storms, forgetting that they most recently called for a bust season. Myself, I'm tracking these reversals specific to each person who changed their forecast based on the current lull. I'll post the results in the end. For example, Taz has been back and forth on busy season and bust many times, not picking on him specifically, but just stating the facts.
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Quoting 88. ncstorm:


Wash, you need to offer the razzies for those who downcast the season..LOL..fair is fair..
Okay.But I'm not sure who will be nominated or who will win..
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Quoting 81. Tropicsweatherpr:


ACE is very low 6.555 and that is below average for August 7.

That would be below what the experts are forecasting. August with 3 and September with a big burst of activity (7-8) and with 1-2 in October is what I see.


I was being conservative and looking at the peak period........A five storm Cape Verde cluster between late-August and mid-September and another 5 between October and November would get the experts in their ball park.

However, as I noted yesterday, higher numbers may increase the overall odds of a potential strike but the actual numbers become irrelevant if one or two majors strike a devastating blow in the Caribbean or US.
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Quoting 72. washingtonian115:
The infamous Wu speech during hurricane season..


Wash, you need to offer the razzies for those who downcast the season..LOL..fair is fair..
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I can almost assure you people this season will be active and when hurricanes and tropical storms start rolling one after another everything in here would calm down.
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Im just sitting over here chuckling..I for one know that you have to kick the tires before a test drive..as we already saw two Cape Verde systems before August, thats exactly we saw in regards so far to this season..kicking of the tires..

The test drive is next..whose ready

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather