July 2013 the 30th Warmest July on Record for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:40 PM GMT on August 13, 2013

July 2013 was the 30th warmest July in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. A persistent trough of low pressure over the middle of the country brought unusually cool conditions there, and strong ridges of high pressure over both the East Coast and West Coast brought unusually warm conditions to the West and Northeast. Massachusetts had its warmest July on record, and ten other states in the Northeast and West had top-ten warmest Julys on record. Four southern states had top-ten coolest Julys on record. The number of record warm highs and lows was roughly the same as the number of record cold highs and lows during July. For the year-to-date period January - July, both temperature and precipitation over the contiguous U.S. have been above normal, ranking in the upper 35% and 21% of years, respectively.

According to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, July extremes were slightly above average, and the year-to-date period January - July 2013 was also slightly above average.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for July 2013. Massachusetts had its warmest July on record, and nine other states in the Northeast and West had top-ten warmest Julys on record. Five southern states had top-ten coolest Julys on record. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Wet July increases tropical storm flood risk
It was a very wet July for the contiguous U.S., ranking as the 5th wettest July since 1895. Florida had its wettest July on record, and twelve other states, ten of them in the Eastern U.S., had top-ten wettest Julys on record. As a result, soil moisture levels are high over portions of the Eastern U.S., increasing the chances of damaging flooding should a tropical storm or hurricane hit. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model keeps the Southeast U.S. under a very wet weather pattern through August, and the latest 1-month and 3-month precipitation outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also give the Southeast above-average chances of wetter than average conditions. Lake Okeechobee in Florida is 2.1' above average for this time of year, and nearly 6' higher than two years ago. This puts the lake just 4" below what is considered high water, and Lake Okeechobee water levels are a concern as we head into the peak part of hurricane season.


Figure 2. Historical precipitation ranking for the U.S. for July 2013. Florida had its wettest July on record, and twelve other states had top-ten wettest Julys on record. Oregon had its driest July on record, and Washington and Oregon also had a top-ten driest July. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 3. Soil moisture for August 12, 2013, expressed as percent average of the soil moisture observed between 1916 - 2004. Portions of the Eastern U.S. have high soil moisture levels, increasing the odds of damaging flooding should a tropical storm or hurricane hit this year. Texas and Western Louisiana are dry, and could use the rains from a tropical storm. Image credit: University of Washington Variable Infiltration Capacity Macro-scale Hydrological Model, which includes soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and runoff.

Drought conditions remained relatively unchanged during June and July. According to the August 6 Drought Monitor report, about 45% of the contiguous U.S. is still in moderate or greater drought, compared to 44% at the beginning of June. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook issued on July 18 calls for little overall change in the U.S. area covered by drought conditions through October. Despite the drought, the year-to-date total acreage burned by wildfires is the second lowest in the past ten years.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1528. GatorWX
1:56 AM GMT on August 15, 2013
I'm beginning to question whether this may end up being another system that can't really link up their vorticies. I know the surface obs I've seen would indicate a surface low, I'm not totally convinced. Even so, this just looks like another Dorian. I'll say, it has improved its structural appearance considerably today. I'm curious if anyone has a theory on why storms have been so stubborn the last 3-5 years. They seem to be becoming more prevelent anyway. I understand the significance of the dust way out there. Dorian and Chantal probably aren't the best analogs given the different environment, but those who have been really paying attention, doesn't it seem these weak trof like systems are becoming more and more common. We keep seeing a lot of weak systems that never actually develop. I have only really been spending a lot of time studying the tropics for 10-11 years, thanks Internet!, so perhaps I sound a bit naive saying so. If anyone has an opinion or theory I'd be curious.
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1527. GatorWX
6:07 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Sure looks like a depression and nobody I talk to here even knows it's there.
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1526. biff4ugo
1:38 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Thanks Cane!
I thought it was me.
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1525. CaneHunter031472
1:32 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
NEW BLOG!!
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1524. biff4ugo
1:01 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
I also wanted to take a moment to celebrate the high and low temperature records being roughly equal. This may not be an average temperature month, but it has been a long time since the low temp records have approached the highs.
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1523. biff4ugo
12:53 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Did anyone else notice that even with Florida's wettest month on record, Soil moisture was mostly average across the state and only a tick above that in the Southern portion of the state.
That should help show how dry the situation has been.
Lake Okeechobee made the blog! It is too bad the water is full of nutrients or it would be a real boon to the Everglades. As it stands the relief canals are dumping a mess of water into the lagoons and estuaries to harmful effects there.
Also the wet conditions have filled up many Georgia lakes, which seems strange because Apalachicola's declaration as disaster due to lack of fresh water down river, in the oyster beds there, was just declared.
It seems an odd moment of plenty to be pushing for enforcement of interstate water treaties, but that is where governor Scott is focused.
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1522. HCW
12:48 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
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1521. 69Viking
12:45 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1489. SouthernIllinois:
Morning from the Woods!

Another splendid day today in Little Egypt. Nothing but bright sunshine! Cool temperatures prevailing though. Not exactly pool weather but good hiking weather!!

Natalie



Good morning back at you! Muggy and wet in NW Florida and the potential for a tropical system coming our way this weekend, oh joy.
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1520. pcola57
12:45 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1475. 69Viking:


IKE not looking good for us in the Panhandle. With this trough sinking down over the area today we'll be getting some more rain and then if it pulls whatever tropical system forms up here it's going to get ugly. Sigh, just when my front yard was almost dried out. Made it 3 days without rain again but doesn't look good for a 4th!


Good Morning Viking/Everyone..
I had a few drenching boomers yesterday and more in store for both of us today and possibly again tomorrow..
Really really wet here..
I haven't run the spinkling system but twice this year..
I'm not liking how things are going tropics wise..
All my plans are in place but that won't make a hill of beans if we get T/C soakers and winds..
I think this year my threshold to bail out is lower..
Going with a solid Cat. 2 or above and I'm outta here..
Don't want to be around when the ancient infrastructure here fails and have to go through that again..
Anyway..
Todays looking wet..









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1518. IKE
12:43 PM GMT on August 14, 2013

Quoting 69Viking:


IKE not looking good for us in the Panhandle. With this trough sinking down over the area today we'll be getting some more rain and then if it pulls whatever tropical system forms up here it's going to get ugly. Sigh, just when my front yard was almost dried out. Made it 3 days without rain again but doesn't look good for a 4th!
Just checked my gauge. Had .46 yesterday.

Yes...we don't need rain and certainly not winds.
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1517. hydrus
12:43 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1505. 69Viking:


I wish that cool weather would reach down into the FL Panhandle but it's still just a little too early for that to happen. The best we'll get over the next 10 days is maybe a day or two where the low will be in the low 70's. I can't wait until we get some lows that hit the 50's and 60's!
There is a chance this system will bring you that shot of cool air. Strong lows can yank a lot of cold air from up north into the panhandle. I have seen it many times. Sorta like this..

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1516. Grothar
12:43 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
None of the models have 92L very strong yet




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1515. Hurricanes305
12:42 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
I would put the center right around 17.8N and 82.5W has the potential to undergo the worse case scenario and go through the Yucatan channel.

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1514. wunderkidcayman
12:41 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1492. stormwatcherCI:
Not SE of the Cayman Islands . SW.


Quoting 1496. MahFL:
Looks like a definite coc SW of Caymans.


Nah I'd say more like S of Cayman

I see developing circulation located near 17.2N 81.3W
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1513. Tazmanian
12:41 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1503. Hurricanes305:


Hey Gro, 92L starting to get that look to it. Its that system that we always wonder what you happen if a cyclone transverse the High TCHP over the NW Caribbean and the loop current in the Gulf?!



You don't want too no with light wind shear in the gulf and this can really ramp up the gulf coast needs too start getting there homes ready for a cat 2 3. 4 or 5 storm I got a bad feeling about this and this could be a lot stronger then what mode runs are showing
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1512. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:40 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1511. ILwthrfan
12:40 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1470. StormTrackerScott:
I would say a cat1 or cat2 at landfall on the FL Panhandle. This won't be a weak system that many on here believe it will be. Again the blog has been spoiled the last several years with many weak Gulf systems. Not the case this year.



Any time a system enters the Gulf, especially in mid to late August demands attention; however, I do think many variables would have to line up in order for this system to be able to make the most of it's time over Gulf waters. If it does become more intense than what guidance suggests it will be when it's making it's last run into land. I still think this invest is going to take more time to consolidate, although it's doing it's darndest.

Really looks like the season is busting isn't it lol. A couple long months ahead of us I believe...

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1509. Walshy
12:40 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
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1508. StormTrackerScott
12:39 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1490. Grothar:
This is the GFS ensemble model. 3 days ago I said 92L would hit 2 miles west of Destin, Florida and move over De Funiak Springs, (no offense, Doug)



Me too Gro and boy did I take some flack. You were on here as well and said nothing while my feet were being held to the fire. Literally because Levi called a track toward TX or Mexico and I said he would be wrong with that. I also said I thought this would be a 80mph to 100mph system at landfall near Cedar Key but the track me need to be nudge a little west toward IKE town:)
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1507. hydrus
12:39 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1501. SRQfl:
Well, I am off to mow the lawn before it gets too stinking hot. I leave you with this.
The MJO doom square...thank you so much...:0
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1506. nrtiwlnvragn
12:38 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
TXNT24 KNES 141223
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93L)

B. 14/1200Z

C. 12.5N

D. 20.8W

E. FIVE/MET-10

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION IS LIMITED...LARGELY LINEAR AND FAILS TO EXCEED 2/10 BANDING
MAKING THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK


Link
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1505. 69Viking
12:38 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1485. hydrus:
Funny you should mention that. We were saying this morning that what ever becomes of 92L passes west of Mid TN, we will have serious flooding issues. With that said, it will be in the 50,s here tonight...gotta love it ya know..


I wish that cool weather would reach down into the FL Panhandle but it's still just a little too early for that to happen. The best we'll get over the next 10 days is maybe a day or two where the low will be in the low 70's. I can't wait until we get some lows that hit the 50's and 60's!
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1504. hydrus
12:37 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1446. KoritheMan:


I always thought that's what the models were seeing all along.
Some models had the system forming south and moving west..Good Morning Kori.
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1503. Hurricanes305
12:37 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1497. Grothar:




Hey Gro, 92L starting to get that look to it. Its that system that we always wonder what you happen if a cyclone transverse the High TCHP over the NW Caribbean and the loop current in the Gulf?!
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1502. Grothar
12:37 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1500. PensacolaDoug:
(no offense, Doug)


None taken.


You little lurker, you.
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1501. SRQfl
12:35 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Well, I am off to mow the lawn before it gets too stinking hot. I leave you with this.
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1500. PensacolaDoug
12:35 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
(no offense, Doug)


None taken.
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1499. Grothar
12:35 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1495. SouthernIllinois:
Whoa Whoa Whoa. Are we still watching a phantom system that likely won't develop or will get swallowed up by dry air or sheared off?


No, we're watching reruns of Bewitched and I Love Lucy.
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1498. hurricanes2018
12:35 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
watching invest 93L.
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1497. Grothar
12:34 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
.
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1496. MahFL
12:33 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Looks like a definite coc SW of Caymans.
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1494. weatherlover94
12:32 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
when are they going to put the intensity models and stuff on here for 92L ?


Link
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1493. Neapolitan
12:32 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
The same situation with 93L: winds up by 5 knots, while pressure remains unchanged:

AL, 93, 2013081412, , BEST, 0, 129N, 208W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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1492. stormwatcherCI
12:32 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1469. ryang:
I have a question. If 92L is developing an LLC SE of the Cayman Islands, should winds there be coming out of the NE?
Not SE of the Cayman Islands . SW.
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1491. Tazmanian
12:32 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1479. Hurricanes305:


Wow winds have skyrocketed in a short span of time. Pressures are really lowering pretty well. I think is beginning to ramp up a little.





I think are luck has this ran out think 92L is starting RI
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1490. Grothar
12:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
This is the GFS ensemble model. 3 days ago I said 92L would hit 2 miles west of Destin, Florida and move over De Funiak Springs, (no offense, Doug)

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1488. Tropicsweatherpr
12:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
12z run for 92L.


CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1225 UTC WED AUG 14 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922013) 20130814 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130814 1200 130815 0000 130815 1200 130816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 82.8W 18.4N 85.5W 19.4N 87.9W 20.3N 89.8W
BAMD 17.1N 82.8W 18.3N 84.6W 19.4N 86.3W 20.4N 88.0W
BAMM 17.1N 82.8W 18.2N 84.8W 19.3N 86.8W 20.3N 88.6W
LBAR 17.1N 82.8W 18.2N 84.5W 19.7N 86.3W 21.4N 87.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130816 1200 130817 1200 130818 1200 130819 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.9N 91.3W 21.8N 92.8W 22.4N 94.1W 23.5N 96.8W
BAMD 21.4N 89.4W 23.6N 91.2W 27.5N 90.7W 32.7N 89.7W
BAMM 21.1N 90.1W 22.7N 91.8W 25.0N 92.2W 27.8N 93.3W
LBAR 23.3N 89.1W 28.5N 89.2W 36.0N 86.1W 39.8N 76.0W
SHIP 52KTS 72KTS 77KTS 67KTS
DSHP 33KTS 53KTS 58KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.1N LONCUR = 82.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 81.4W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 80.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 180NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
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1487. nrtiwlnvragn
12:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
TXNT23 KNES 141210
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92L)

B. 14/1145Z

C. 17.6N

D. 82.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD NOT BE DISCERNED IN
1013Z TMI DATA SO PBO CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

PBO = Position Based On

Link
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1486. Hurricanes305
12:30 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1476. Neapolitan:
92L up 5 knots and down one millibar since 0600UTC:

AL, 92, 2013081406, , BEST, 0, 165N, 820W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081412, , BEST, 0, 171N, 828W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Moving a little more poleward as well.
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1485. hydrus
12:29 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1467. 69Viking:


Looking at the Mobile weather discussion it seems the trough is going to sink slowly into the Southeast and stay for a while. On top of that they are several shortwaves expected to come through. See below from Mobile Weather Discussion. Looks like we're going to get pretty wet too, not what we need. BTW, good morning everyone!

GIVEN THE VERY HIGH AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA AND THE BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROF MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND THE
DEFORMATION ZONE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.
Funny you should mention that. We were saying this morning that what ever becomes of 92L passes west of Mid TN, we will have serious flooding issues. With that said, it will be in the 50,s here tonight...gotta love it ya know..
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1484. islander101010
12:29 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
i value every prediction whether i think is right or wrong. so far one side is storm trackers of a strong cat 1 or 2 on the other was cybers at most 40mph late yesterday. we are deep in august and 92 is moving into the gulf my character thinks we cant count out a decent system.
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1483. StormTrackerScott
12:29 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1476. Neapolitan:
AL, 92, 2013081406, , BEST, 0, 165N, 820W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081412, , BEST, 0, 171N, 828W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Is that a reposition to the north Nea?
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1482. SFLWeatherman
12:29 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
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1481. seer2012
12:29 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1462. GeoffreyWPB:


I see a movement to the nnw on this picture.It looks like a direct path to the channel.
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1480. Grothar
12:28 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1432. KoritheMan:
Also, I'm skeptical 93L will recurve, at least immediately. The weakness to its north isn't very large, and I would expect a southward shift in the models at longer ranges over the next few days. Grothar mentioned a sharp westward turn, and I think that will occur beyond day four or five.


And don't forget 3 days ago I said anything that forms in the Caribbean will have to move north. You people never listen. :) But your a good boy, Kori for remembering.

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1479. Hurricanes305
12:27 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1472. OracleDeAtlantis:
This looks like the real deal.



Wow winds have skyrocketed in a short span of time. Pressures are really lowering pretty well. I think is beginning to ramp up a little.


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1478. hydrus
12:27 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
Quoting 1476. Neapolitan:
AL, 92, 2013081406, , BEST, 0, 165N, 820W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2013081412, , BEST, 0, 171N, 828W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 180, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Time to get the plane.:)
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather