Caribbean Disturbance 92L Moving Over the Yucatan; Erin Forms Off of Africa

Quoting 729. Patrap:
Thats not true in any sense.

That poster is just yanking ya chain.

Here in NOLA, its Thursday.

Dat bout covers it.

Quoting weatherrx:
Our local officials here in south Louisiana are issuing warnings about the upcoming storm forecast to hit south Louisiana, which has put a strain on our retail stores. Gas is getting hard to come by and food and water is still available but not much to choose from, I picked up a couple cans of chief boy R D ravioli and thats about it. All I can say at this point is hunker down and be safe.

Quoting 733. LAbonbon:


I was actually referring to the 'Tropical Development Index' graphic. But I do appreciate the other ones...w/ the exception of that NAM one you posted in the wee hours :)

Quoting 717. CaribBoy:


I feel even more frustrated when the rain skirts me... (remember Dorian's remains :s :s)

Quoting 716. sar2401:

I think this is Barry II. Once this "thing" gets back into the Gulf, most of the energy will go left into Mexico. There will be enough leftover convection to give central and south Florida some rain but I can't see any scenario where whatever tropical type storm 92L becomes gets any further east the the TX/MX border. 92L has had plenty of time to get organized and all its done is become a more elongated trough.

Quoting 725. LargoFl:
no I cant remember either..probably they meant the pics I post are mainly precip and not how windy its going to be,,my fear for up there isn't wind..at worst it will be a TS..folks can handle that easily..its flooding im worried about..days of heavy downpours from that cold front then getting days of tropical rains on top of it..so I post mostly precip models.

Quoting 724. sar2401:

Since it may have been all they had in the world, they probably didn't consider it "crap". I hope I'm never in such a position,

Quoting 728. LAbonbon:


weatherrx, what parish are you in?

Quoting 695. hurricanes2018:
we will have lots of fish storm if there start at 15 north!! next tropical wave gong to start at 16 north..that is still to far north..

Quoting 722. weatherrx:
Our local officials here in south Louisiana are issuing warnings about the upcoming storm forecast to hit south Louisiana, which has put a strain on our retail stores. Gas is getting hard to come by and food and water is still available but not much to choose from, I picked up a couple cans of chief boy R D ravioli and thats about it. All I can say at this point is hunker down and be safe.

Quoting 676. Relix:
Wave at 40W should get a honorary 10% :P! Erin looks boring to me; at the pace its going it will be north of the islands easily. I don't get CaribBoy... here in PR its been a rainy summer; nonstop. I don't want more rain! Yet there's a t-wave coming up and the one at 40W which seems pretty darned strong.

Quoting 713. LAbonbon:


Hey Largo - a few days back someone posted in respone to this graphic that they weren't really fond of it. I've always liked it, as it seems pretty straightforward to me. But I can't recall the rationale that was posted. Something like it didn't give a complete picture of conditions?...dunno. Do you remember the blogger's thoughts on this?

Quoting centex:
Did actually evac for Rita? The evacs made for a sight in Austin when they arrived and moved into all the schools. They were easy to spot with all the crap strapped to the top of there cars.

Quoting 718. MississippiWx:
Here is what is currently happening with 92L. It still has a little work to do before consolidating into one area of focused low pressure/vorticity, but it is getting better with time. The most concentrated area of vorticity seems to be where I have the "L", but there is also a bit of a surface trough extending to the south of it as winds are still converging along the axis there. To the south of that yellow axis I drew, winds are convincingly out of the west and they move cyclonically thereafter. I believe the surface low will continue consolidating where red L is and it should keep moving off to the WNW. What happens once it emerges in the Gulf will be determined by the influence of the upper low to the north at first. If it stays tangled with it, it will have a difficult time wrapping convection around the surface low as it would remained sheared and have dry stable air pulled into the surface low. If enough convection can get going, the latent heat production might be able to kill of the upper low since it is not a very potent one. The future of 92L is still murky and still wreaks of persistent struggles, but it will have an opportunity to get going over the Central Gulf if it can shed the upper low and continue consolidating its surface low.

Quoting 672. VR46L:


I hope you get some ! I remember how frustrated you get with no rain!

Quoting LargoFl:
..thanks,,im thinking charley..how wrong they were on where it was coming in..sometimes these storms just defy logic and do what THEY want to do..well keeping a good eye on this one for sure.

Quoting 703. seminolesfan:
Where is StormTrackerScott?

It is rare to not see his smiling face on our lovely community blog space.

Quoting 692. LargoFl:

Quoting 710. louisianaboy444:


Do you feel like it can keep any circulation in tact while crossing the Yucatan?

Quoting 708. Drakoen:


A couple of westerlies shown

Quoting 702. daddyjames:


Models scream? Wow, that's a first. ;)

Quoting 701. Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT higher res & coastal..

Quoting 671. RitaEvac:


Wow, I have a cousin on the blog

Quoting 669. whitewabit:


That's only one model run .. let wait and see ..

Quoting 665. CaribBoy:


Just watch the 18Z models.. they all scream fish. That's boring, I hope the 40W disturbance will do something

Quoting 668. Gearsts:
Will bring alot of rain.

Quoting 686. Gearsts:

Quoting 683. CybrTeddy:
The sudden increase in intensity is probably in response to a shift westwards into the western GOMEX by the 18z models.

Quoting 690. Stormchaser2007:
"Meh-rin"

Quoting 419. opal92nwf:

I think we are bound to get something really interesting before Dec. 1st. Maybe the equivalent of a Frederic:

Or an Eloise: