About Jeff Masters
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic
By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013
Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.
Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
Reader Comments
Category 6™
2490. Tazmanian
There is no 92L plzs call it ex 92L
2489. vis0
2488. vis0
Was that the part where Sonic went into space!...SEGA!
2487. mfcmom
There already is. It is just awful. Panama City is getting pounded.
2486. GTstormChaserCaleb
Nice why does it seem this is the only model glitching out lately?
2485. hydrus
2484. Jedkins01
Yeah coverage looks like it will be good today, developing southeast flow and a lot more sun today. Not full heating, but a lot more heating than the overcast conditions that dominated 80 to 90% of the last 2 days.
2483. interpreter
Sorry not saying what you would like to hear. Need to face the facts that the conditions for this season do provide tropical cyclone development and that these conditions thankfully will persist throughout the remainder of this season.
2482. AllyBama
I have to ask. Do either you or Matt1989 live along the coast? I wonder.
I admit I love seeing the formation of a beautiful storm, it is truly a gift from nature...and as much as I enjoy the adrenalin rush when a storm enters the gulf, I do not enjoy the destruction and pain that a storm brings. I am not crying and whining if a storm doesn't form this year. I will get down on my knees and thank God that lives, homes and property were not destroyed and that the storms are "not like how they used 2 be"..
2481. Sfloridacat5
29.91 pressure.
2480. Patrap
Laundry,
Galley, Food
Cleaning
Service hand can be from electricians to contract divers working on the rig as well.
There are many jobs offshore besides driller,Crane operator, Safety Man, Company Man.Safety folk, Toolpusher(Rig Boss), Derrick hands...etc.
Hercules 21 and me in mid 90's, for Chevron.
Now for a production platform they are many, many, more
2479. interpreter
The conditions are different and the weather pattern more persistent than in those previous analog seasons you referred to. Nothing on the horizon now. I do think the tropics will be relatively quite until mid-September. No threats to the US this year. You don't have to worry about billions of dollars of damage happening somewhere this year in the Atlantic.
2478. TropicalAnalystwx13
2477. daddyjames
2476. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2475. LAbonbon
From the article “The flood covers territory from Lake Baikal to the Pacific Ocean.” That's a huge area, about a thousand miles between the two.
Thanks for posting.
2474. daddyjames
Ask patrap - not me.
2473. CybrTeddy
2472. daddyjames
Come on, it was ridiculous. did not serve the public at all, and is a prime example of the over-dramatization of the "news".
Now, back to the impending doom developing in the BOC/SE Gulf ;)
2471. Dakster
What kind of 'service' do they provide? And how long can the rig operate without this, service?
2470. daddyjames
had faith that you would know.
2469. AllyBama
lol...and in more ways than one! I actually live about a mile or so out of the flood zone in Mobile. So if it ever flooded at my house everything east of I-65 and south of Hwy 90 would be underwater bigtime!
Oh yeah, ROLL TIDE!
2468. Patrap
Service hands.
Utility folk,
2467. hurricanes2018
2466. Patrap
Don't you know that you are a shooting star, now,
And all the world will love you just as long, As long you are you
2465. Dakster
I didn't take offense - trust me... I thought I was being messed with when it was first posted.
I didn't think 'non-essential' people would be on an oil rig either. IIRC, someone on the blog here works or worked on a rig, maybe they will chime in on who these non-essential folks are?
2464. centex
2463. EcoLogic
2461. Sfloridacat5
NAM offers the best solution for Texas.
12z NAM at 60 hours
2460. fredric1979
Let me check the math 20% divided by pie multiplied by 6 plus 2000 minus 1999 carry the 6 = yea I would say your correct. ( I think I blew a vessel in my head)
2459. TxLisa
2458. daddyjames
Oh, forgive me. I honesty do not know. But looks like the proper precautions were taken.
Who are the "non-essential" personnel on an offshore oil rig. I'm being serious also (it happens occasionally).
2457. bigwes6844
and to add on to teddy check out our Mojo too. Sounds pretty accurate what teddy saying.
2456. Dakster
Thanks -- I guess the facts just get in the way then?
2455. weatherman994
2454. Patrap
Indeed allybama, some are gonna get Rain they def dont need.
2453. CybrTeddy
No use on quoting interpreter, we've thrown as many facts as possible at him and he won't budge until billions of dollars in revenue damage is caused this season.
2452. Dakster
You're going to be rolling with the tide?
2451. Skyepony (Mod)
As soon as I noted the drop in winds they went back up..
haha derr~ Right here.. behave! lol..
ERIN click pic for loop..
2450. Dakster
And Today in 1992, What will be come Hurricane Andrew - the FIRST storm of that season - has just formed.
Or course, you could be correct in that nothing will form too.
2449. Patrap
National Weather Service New Orleans la
400 am CDT Sat Aug 17 2013
Short term...
scenario painted yesterday morning and carried through on the
afternoon package is still in play for today's forecast. The upper low
pressure system located off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula is
spinning prominently in water vapor satellite imagery and is
nearly stationary approximately 22.3n latitude...90.5w longitude.
Convection was beginning to band in the northwest quadrant along
a stretching axis extended from the col located to the northwest
of the circulation. This feature is key in ultimatly determining
eventual track of this low pressure system. GFS model streamline
analysis aloft would suggest the col structure collapses in
response to digging trough later today...being replaced by deep
layered convergent flow from the central Gulf waters into the
central coastal region. Meanwhile...cut-off low over the middle of
the country with attendant jet structure extending from the southeast la
coast...through Alabama into the eastern Tennessee Valley. Right
rear quadrant dynamic lift poised vicinity of the Mississippi
River Delta to enhance convection and induce a weak surface
reflection low pressure center later today into this evening.
Surface frontolytic environment would also be conducive of low
level cyclogenesis. Convective feedback from south Gulf low will
be advecting northward today and become involved with north Gulf
low pressure developments to provide a brief period of enhanced
winds and seas in the marine areas east of the Mississippi River.
Forecast considerations over land areas would be efficient
rainfall processes across the Mississippi coastal counties where
best Gulf inflow would converge along frontolytic boundary draped
across that area and extending back across lower Plaquemines
Parish. Will indicate probability of precipitation ranging from 20 percent or less western
portions of forecast area /btr area/ where dry air influences
should limit coverage...to 70 percent in aforementioned areas of
higher impacts for today and this evening. The north Gulf low
pressure area /possible wake low aspects/ move inland overnight
and rapidly advance to the Tennessee Valley Sunday. This passage
should nudge the drier air aloft farther eastward to destabilize
column for Sunday to present a greater chance of downburst pulse
type convection during the afternoon hours. Meanwhile...lower Gulf
system should continue to move westward in time but upper support
may suppress development unless movement becomes more south of
west where shear would be minimal and influences from upper cut-
off low would be negligible. Nevertheless...no local impacts are
anticipated from this system aside from the convective
contributions heading our way today.
2448. AllyBama
I just want out of the battle zone! I feel sorry to those east of me who are catching the brunt of all this rain. They are so waterlogged. Maybe the rains will shift back my way and give the a reprieve - even a few hours would help.
2447. interpreter
It is this year.
2446. Dakster
I now that this is highly unlike me... But I was actually being serious.
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-08-15/bus iness/sns-rt-us-storm-gulfofmexico-energy-20130815 _1_thunder-horse-oil-and-gas-platforms-nonessentia l-workers
Link
2445. CybrTeddy
"I cannot teach him, the boy has no patience."
ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010
...A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 32.1W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
That storm, after a mostly inactive August, became Major Hurricane Danielle and lead the way to an incredibly active August and September. The models are telling us this will occur soon as well as numerous Cape Verde hurricanes are possible.
00z GFS 384 hours illustrates what I mean, with the hurricane near the US coast being the African wave emerging off Africa now.
And what the heck is an "unactive" phase? The word you're looking for is an "inactive" phase.
2444. interpreter
2443. Abacosurf
Sky my point for bringing up the 001 buoy was the wind switch to west.
2442. weatherlover94
2441. Rmadillo
August must be the new October.