92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting 2038. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Have a good night man, make sure to give the brains a good nights rest. And again thanks for your advice that means a lot to me.


Well if the past two nightds are any indication, it'll be a struggle :D

And before i go, the WPAC is going to be fun to watch. A dance between two storms, both expected to become cyclones, and a merger into a single storm. Will be extremely interesting to watch. From the discussion:

3. Forecast reasoning.
A. This is the initial prognostic reasoning and sets the forecast
philosophy.
B. TD 12w is currently tracking along the northern periphery of
the str axis. TD 12w is expected to experience direct cyclone
interaction (dci) with the neighboring TD 13w throughout the
forecast period
. TD 13w is currently 453 nm to the northeast. TD 12w
is expected to track eastward through tau 24 and then begin to turn
the northeast and eventually curve completely back to the west in a
cyclonic motion by tau 72. Meanwhile 13w will complete the cyclonic
turn beginning from the north and curve to the southwest. The
intensity is expected to slowly increase throughout the forecast
period. TD 12w is forecast to intensify to 30 knots by tau 12 and
reach tropical storm strength before beginning the cyclonic turn. As
TD 12w rounds the curve back to the west, the system is expected to
intensify to 50 knots. Confidence in the forecast track is low as
the dynamic model guidance is fairly spread and the global models
maybe struggling to handle the dci properly.
C. In the extended period, TD 12w is expected to continue to
track west-northwest as it merges with TD 13w
between tau 72 and
120. Both TD 12w and 13w are forecast to intensify to typhoon
strength upon merging
by tau 120. The large spread and uncertainty
in dynamic model guidance leaves low confidence in the forecast
track for this portion of the forecast. Additionally, due to the
large amount of dci anticipated in this scenario, it is expected
that global models will struggle to agree in forecast track and
intensity.//
Nnnn
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2040. nigel20
Quoting KoritheMan:


OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

Thanks Kori! I'm wondering if the Atlantic will get its first major hurricane before the epac does. I guess that we'll have to wait and see though.
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may be 94l coming soon
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Quoting 2030. daddyjames:
Well, I'm off to stare at the ceiling for a couple of hours before the brain decides whether or not it'll allow me sleep tonight. I wish all well. And will catch up with you later.
Have a good night man, make sure to give the brains a good nights rest. And again thanks for your advice that means a lot to me.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2023. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Thanks stormchaser19 for providing the images to this website. Link

Hurricane Andrew at its peak with winds of 175 mph. and 80 mph. Hurricane Lestor making landfall on the Baja Peninsula :

Thanks Caleb for the website :D.
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T3.0/45kts intensity estimates on Pewa across the board.

CP, 01, 201308170530, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1010N, 17580W, , 3, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , PHFO, RK, I, 6, 3030 1024, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

CP, 01, 201308170532, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1020N, 17570W, , 3, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , PGTW, U, I, 6, 3030 D1524, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

CP, 01, 201308170600, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1010N, 17580W, , 3, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SAB, M, I, 6, 3030 1524, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

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Pewa stays at 45 knots.

CP, 01, 2013081706, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1757W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 35, 20, 40, 1010, 140, 25, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, PEWA, D,
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Well jeez! Seems as though the GFS is not the only one seeing a storm approaching the East Coast in the long range.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Erin remains a tropical storm.

AL, 05, 2013081706, , BEST, 0, 186N, 351W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, 1012, 130, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERIN, M,
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Quoting 1965. DonnieBwkGA:
Fifi eye pass between the bay islands and the north coast of Honduras,but no landfall occur.Most storms skirt or grace Honduras but they don`t make landfall.
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Quoting 2028. Camille33:

i dont like that look at all may be 94l soon!!!


Seriously? Having a conversation with yourself? Time to call it quits for the evening.

G'nite.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Well, I'm off to stare at the ceiling for a couple of hours before the brain decides whether or not it'll allow me sleep tonight. I wish all well. And will catch up with you later.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Iniki can be seen on the left.

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Quoting 2026. Camille33:


wow do you see that near 45 w look !!!

i dont like that look at all may be 94l soon!!!
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Quoting 2002. LAbonbon:
Goodnight, fellow bloggers. It's been fun, educational, and a tad existential tonight! See some of you tomorrow.
Good night LAbonbon have a nice sleep and see you tomorrow. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


wow do you see that near 45 w look !!!
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Quoting 2013. nigel20:

Hi Canes! How are you enjoying your career?


Yeah it's been pretty darn good. Was in Southeast Asia (not in s typhoon zone die to proximity to the equator) for a month for work. It was awesome to go to Aisa for the first time.
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Quoting 2016. SunriseSteeda:


That is good to hear!

But it's my opinion that it's fantastic practice to do this type of planning early in one's education, since you repeat this pattern throughout life (planning your future, identifying prerequisites). Plus you get the added benefit of never being ill-advised. You'll never be led astray (accidentally or otherwise) if you already can see the road ahead :)

Some schools and programs require that you meet regularly with your advisor and that they must approve all course choices. If you have a choices, it is in your best interests to show up at that meeting with a selection that you already know will be approved, or based on sound planning on your part that you can convince the advisor of.

I'd show up, and basically get my plans rubber-stamped. It also reduced the workload of my advisor, which somewhere along the line increased the attention he could give to someone less organized than myself :)




Yes, the students are required to meet with the advisors, and the instructors/professors submit reports to the advisors mid-semester regarding the progress of each student (made easier with the online grading system in place). Students then have to meet with their advisor mid-semester and prior to any registration attempt beforehand.

In most cases, it works very well. And really has allowed students to proceed successfully. It does help, and is much more pleasurable, to deal with those that come prepared for the meeting. But, as we know, that is not always the case. :D
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Thanks stormchaser19 for providing the images to this website. Link

Hurricane Andrew at its peak with winds of 175 mph. and 80 mph. Hurricane Lestor making landfall on the Baja Peninsula :

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2021. nigel20:
Are the models showing development in the epac? I seem as if it may be quiet on that side for some time.


OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2021. nigel20
Are the models showing development in the epac? I seem as if it may be quiet on that side for some time.
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invest 94l coming SOON!
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2019. robj144
Quoting 1982. SunriseSteeda:


If you intend to take a lot of math classes, lemme tell you... Calc II will kick you in the head. Differential equations (if you have to take it) is likely 2nd. Calc I is usually only a 3-4 credit course, while Calc II is 5-6, so that should say alot :-D


You can get started this very minute, if you like. MIT Open Courseware is the most awesome way to spend your spare time between semesters! If you watch even a few of the videos for one or more courses you are *about* to take, it makes the actual course (when you get there) a *lot* *lot* easier, I promise!

Check this out, Calculus I, an entire course:

http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-01-sing le-variable-calculus-fall-2006/index.htm



Here is one called Atmospheric And Ocean Circulations (there are dozens of weather-related courses available free from MIT):


http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/earth-atmospheric-and- planetary-sciences/12-333-atmospheric-and-ocean-ci rculations-spring-2004/





Yes, but mets need to learn divergence and curls well in Calc. II. :)
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Quoting 2010. tropicfreak:
DMAX is really helping Erin at this hour.



She does look promising, doesn't she?
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Quoting 1990. hurricanes2018:
big Monster hurricane on here!!

Oh please. We all know that the 384 hr GFS might as well be a Mayan calendar or Magic Eight Ball...
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Quoting 2011. daddyjames:


At institutions where I am at, there is a concerted effort to assist students as they proceed through the programs, with advisors very actively involved. Not sure this is the case with other places. Of course, some students get bad advice - or do not fathom the amount of work required. Even those coming in with an AA degree from a smaller college/university. So, at least here, the freedom to plot there own way has been minimized.

Edit: not like the days where you were thrown in "sink-or-swim".


That is good to hear!

But it's my opinion that it's fantastic practice to do this type of planning early in one's education, since you repeat this pattern throughout life (planning your future, identifying prerequisites). Plus you get the added benefit of never being ill-advised. You'll never be led astray (accidentally or otherwise) if you already can see the road ahead :)

Some schools and programs require that you meet regularly with your advisor and that they must approve all course choices. If you have a choices, it is in your best interests to show up at that meeting with a selection that you already know will be approved, or based on sound planning on your part that you can convince the advisor of.

I'd show up, and basically get my plans rubber-stamped. It also reduced the workload of my advisor, which somewhere along the line increased the attention he could give to someone less organized than myself :)


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Quoting 2008. KoritheMan:


"Existential"? That's a word I don't see thrown around very often around here.

Consider me impressed. :)


Easily impressed, are we? :P

Actually, daddyjames used it first.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2005. nigel20:

Good night LA! I hope that you'll enjoy the rest of your weekend.


Thanks, Nigel. I'm planning on it. You as well.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2013. nigel20
Quoting CanesfanatUT:
Nigel - I are a ChemE

Hi Canes! How are you enjoying your career?
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Quoting 1963. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Transfer student. I have my AA degree.


Excellent. Then you've already taken all those core base-education courses that sometimes have you moaning "why oh why do they make me take xxxxxx?".


Now, on to the fun stuff! Enjoy ;-) And start watching for internships. That's the secret to kicking down the door to success.

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Quoting 1995. SunriseSteeda:


When I went back to the university to finish my BS in Computer Science, I found that all my courses after my AA had expired (being over 7 years old)*.

So I sat down with a stack of colored sticky papers and sharpies and identified every core course I had to take, as well as the handful of electives I wanted to take. After consulting current semester and previous semesters' departmental schedules, I was able to get an idea of when courses were typically offered. You can't skip this step, since some courses as you approach senior/graduate status are offered only every Spring, for example.

Anyway, after figuring out the timing of the offerings, the prerequisites need for each course, etc, I was able to plot my path well ahead of time for my BS and finished with exactly the courses I needed in the shortest possible time.

I highly recommend it to every new college student. At the very least, it makes you examine what you need to graduate and sticks it somewhere in the back of your head. At the best, it gives you control over your own path through college, with your Undegraduate Advisor filling only a *tada* advisory role :)


(Apologies for the off-topic rants guys, but I have noticed a *lot* of young students post here, and this is useful for all students, no matter what level of education you're at!)



At institutions where I am at, there is a concerted effort to assist students as they proceed through the programs, with advisors very actively involved. Not sure this is the case with other places. Of course, some students get bad advice - or do not fathom the amount of work required. Even those coming in with an AA degree from a smaller college/university. So, at least here, the freedom to plot there own way has been minimized.

Edit: not like the days where you were thrown in "sink-or-swim".
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
DMAX is really helping Erin at this hour.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2009. robj144
Quoting 1995. SunriseSteeda:


When I went back to the university to finish my BS in Computer Science, I found that all my courses after my AA had expired (being over 7 years old)*.

So I sat down with a stack of colored sticky papers and sharpies and identified every core course I had to take, as well as the handful of electives I wanted to take. After consulting current semester and previous semesters' departmental schedules, I was able to get an idea of when courses were typically offered. You can't skip this step, since some courses as you approach senior/graduate status are offered only every Spring, for example.

Anyway, after figuring out the timing of the offerings, the prerequisites need for each course, etc, I was able to plot my path well ahead of time for my BS and finished with exactly the courses I needed in the shortest possible time.

I highly recommend it to every new college student. At the very least, it makes you examine what you need to graduate and sticks it somewhere in the back of your head. At the best, it gives you control over your own path through college, with your Undegraduate Advisor filling only a *tada* advisory role :)


(Apologies for the off-topic rants guys, but I have noticed a *lot* of young students post here, and this is useful for all students, no matter what level of education you're at!)



Do you teach at FAU?
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Quoting 2002. LAbonbon:
Goodnight, fellow bloggers. It's been fun, educational, and a tad existential tonight! See some of you tomorrow.


"Existential"? That's a word I don't see thrown around very often around here.

Consider me impressed. :)
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Quoting 1818. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Dangerous pattern continues to show up on the long range GFS:



That setup has Isabel written all over it. Very strong high to the north, only place it can go is barrel into the coast.

Side note, approaching the 10 year anniversary of that storm. Still fresh in my mind as we had the eyewall remnants pass over us. Would never forget it.
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Quoting 1999. stormchaser19:



Thx!
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2005. nigel20
Quoting LAbonbon:
Goodnight, fellow bloggers. It's been fun, educational, and a tad existential tonight! See some of you tomorrow.

Good night LA! I hope that you'll enjoy the rest of your weekend.
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Quoting 1998. KoritheMan:




Thanks dude. So an elongated vort at 15 W and then one further north but at 10 W. hmmm. Looks like that area has some consolidation to do.
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2003. nigel20
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
If you went through Mitch or Georges I bet you wouldn't want nothing to do with a major hurricane anymore and would be fine with all of the majors staying away and going OTS. Same goes for Andrew and Katrina in the US.

Yeah, my worst storm was Ivan (2004). I was amazed at the level damage that I saw despite not getting a direct impact.I would not want to experience a major hurricane any time soon, especially in the current economic climate.
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Goodnight, fellow bloggers. It's been fun, educational, and a tad existential tonight! See some of you tomorrow.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Nigel - I are a ChemE
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.
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Quoting 1994. CanesfanatUT:
Does anyone have the 850 mb vort map of Africa??


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1997. flsky
Quoting 1830. sunlinepr:

Please credit these images.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1996. nigel20
1982. SunriseSteeda 6:19 AM

If you intend to take a lot of math classes, lemme tell you... Calc II will kick you in the head. Differential equations (if you have to take it) is likely 2nd. Calc I is usually only a 3-4 credit course, while Calc II is 5-6, so that should say alot :-D


You can get started this very minute, if you like. MIT Open Courseware is the most awesome way to spend your spare time between semesters! If you watch even a few of the videos for one or more courses you are *about* to take, it makes the actual course (when you get there) a *lot* *lot* easier, I promise!

Check this out, Calculus I, an entire course:

http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-01-sing le-variable-calculus-fall-2006/index.htm



Here is one called Atmospheric And Ocean Circulations (there are dozens of weather-related courses available free from MIT):


http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/earth-atmospheric-and- planetary-sciences/12-333-atmospheric-and-ocean-ci rculations-spring-2004/


Hi SunriseSteeda! I'm actually an Electrical Engineering student here in Jamaica at the University of Technology. Advance Engineering mathematics or engineering mathematics is Calculus for engineers. The first year was okay, but it got progressively harder.
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Quoting 1978. daddyjames:


Excellent advice.

I took Calc I and II in the same summer semeseter (i will not reveal how I managed to do that) but that was a killa!


When I went back to the university to finish my BS in Computer Science, I found that all my courses after my AA had expired (being over 7 years old)*.

So I sat down with a stack of colored sticky papers and sharpies and identified every core course I had to take, as well as the handful of electives I wanted to take. After consulting current semester and previous semesters' departmental schedules, I was able to get an idea of when courses were typically offered. You can't skip this step, since some courses as you approach senior/graduate status are offered only every Spring, for example.

Anyway, after figuring out the timing of the offerings, the prerequisites need for each course, etc, I was able to plot my path well ahead of time for my BS and finished with exactly the courses I needed in the shortest possible time.

I highly recommend it to every new college student. At the very least, it makes you examine what you need to graduate and sticks it somewhere in the back of your head. At the best, it gives you control over your own path through college, with your Undegraduate Advisor filling only a *tada* advisory role :)


(Apologies for the off-topic rants guys, but I have noticed a *lot* of young students post here, and this is useful for all students, no matter what level of education you're at!)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone have the 850 mb vort map of Africa??
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beauty Rita on GOM


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Quoting 1979. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Mitch was nasty!..."Hundreds of thousands of people lost their homes, but many took this as an opportunity to rebuild stronger houses. With a new, structurally improved foundation, homes were redesigned to be able to withstand another hurricane. However, lack of arable crop land took away the jobs from many, decreasing an already low income even lower.[36]

Following the passage of Mitch, disease outbreaks occurred throughout Central America, including cholera, leptospirosis, and dengue fever. Over 2,328 cases of cholera were reported, killing 34 people. Guatemala was most affected by the bacterium, where most of the deaths occurred from contaminated food. 450 cases of leptospirosis were reported in Nicaragua, killing seven people. There were over 1,357 cases of dengue reported, though no deaths were reported from the disease."


I remember being glued to the TV. I truly can't overstate how awful it was to hear about and see the aftermath. Felt completely useless.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1983. stormchaser19:
Monster


If you went through Mitch or Georges I bet you wouldn't want nothing to do with a major hurricane anymore and would be fine with all of the majors staying away and going OTS. Same goes for Andrew and Katrina in the US.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather