92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting 1983. stormchaser19:
Monster


If you went through Mitch or Georges I bet you wouldn't want nothing to do with a major hurricane anymore and would be fine with all of the majors staying away and going OTS. Same goes for Andrew and Katrina in the US.
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big Monster hurricane on here!!
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George in C.Atlantic....What a storm..
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1988. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Thanks daddyjames, appreciate the advice. I have a feeling Calculus will consume most of my time.

Calculus nearly killed me, which is why I have a degree in psychology and not meteorology. :-) At least you have mega-calculators and computers. When I was in college (I kid you not), we used slide rules and I had one hour a week on the mainframes, and I had to schedule that a week in advance, and it could be at 3:00 am.
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Quoting 1964. moonlightcowboy:
I love and appreciate passion! If you love weather, the tropics, surfing, watching football or watching children play. God bless the passionate! If one is passionate, I truly believe, that passion is all about better things, better beings, being simply better.

A dozen songs behind that thought at least. My encouragement would be to live, diversify your day, not just stuck on a puter of mindless, stillness. Take a walkabout. See the sun rise and set. Smell the roses. Enjoy the embrace of love and friendship. Be charitable. Give first, pay later. ;)



You sure picked one fine artist! Im in the Rustie Camp for sure!
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Quoting 1948. daddyjames:


It did mine.

One other thing, if you can do not load up on all science/math courses all at once in a semester. Seen too many students flame out because it demands too much time. Have a "cushy" course that you can kick back and relax a little bit.
I have a meteorological careers course which my program director advised me to take if I wanted something to kick back and relax too, he said a lot of guest speakers will be coming in from the all of the various professions in meteorology.
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1985. vis0
Here's my prediction as to 92L (invest AL92) of 2013's Tropical season. link

Not posting it on an others blog as 2 of the last 4 predictions (sis sez 3 of 4) have been removed
'cause i leave clues as to ml-d and that to some in "monoyaddaing" or what ever that's called.
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Sorry Sar, I took what you wrote in 1863 out of context. "I have never been involved in a federal project that didn't have massive waste and inefficiency built in, built in, but laying off HH staff and park rangers is a much better way to make sure you get all the money you wasted last year back." I see what your getting at, and it's a good point, which you followed up on in #1961. Apologies.
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Monster


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Quoting 1966. nigel20:

Hi Caleb! I did three and a half semesters of Advance Engineering Mathematics, it was pretty tough. I was wondering what I got my self into at the time. :)


If you intend to take a lot of math classes, lemme tell you... Calc II will kick you in the head. Differential equations (if you have to take it) is likely 2nd. Calc I is usually only a 3-4 credit course, while Calc II is 5-6, so that should say alot :-D


You can get started this very minute, if you like. MIT Open Courseware is the most awesome way to spend your spare time between semesters! If you watch even a few of the videos for one or more courses you are *about* to take, it makes the actual course (when you get there) a *lot* *lot* easier, I promise!

Check this out, Calculus I, an entire course:

http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-01-sing le-variable-calculus-fall-2006/index.htm



Here is one called Atmospheric And Ocean Circulations (there are dozens of weather-related courses available free from MIT):


http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/earth-atmospheric-and- planetary-sciences/12-333-atmospheric-and-ocean-ci rculations-spring-2004/



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1981. nigel20
Quoting ncstorm:
Good night guys..see yall later on in the morning..

Have a good night and weekend, nc!
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Quoting 1975. ncstorm:
Good night guys..see yall later on in the morning..


Night, NC. Thanks for your great contributions. Have a good sleep!
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Quoting 1971. LAbonbon:


Of all the modern hurricanes, this is the one that horrified me the most. It's the type of storm that I am truly afraid of occurring again.
Mitch was nasty!..."Hundreds of thousands of people lost their homes, but many took this as an opportunity to rebuild stronger houses. With a new, structurally improved foundation, homes were redesigned to be able to withstand another hurricane. However, lack of arable crop land took away the jobs from many, decreasing an already low income even lower.[36]

Following the passage of Mitch, disease outbreaks occurred throughout Central America, including cholera, leptospirosis, and dengue fever. Over 2,328 cases of cholera were reported, killing 34 people. Guatemala was most affected by the bacterium, where most of the deaths occurred from contaminated food. 450 cases of leptospirosis were reported in Nicaragua, killing seven people. There were over 1,357 cases of dengue reported, though no deaths were reported from the disease."
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Quoting 1968. SunriseSteeda:


I've seen my students do the same. Many come to me now to help balance their course loads.

Another pearl of wisdom... if you are taking any 2-course sequences (foreign language, calc 1/2 if you have to have calc 2, etc), try to take them in back to back semesters. Same thing for courses that are in a sequence (for example, my students learn C, then C++ (Foundations of Computer Science), then more advanced C++ (Data Structures/Algorithm Analysis, each building on the last). Don't let more than a semester separate them, or the next course becomes far more difficult because of what you didn't retain because you didn't use it again right away ;-)

(I took Calculus I and Calculus II 23 years apart. That hurted. A lot.)

And like daddyjames said, *always* throw a cupcake class in there to "reduce" your workload (any course that is easy or interesting or fun does so).

Take courses over the summer if you can (at least 1). In Florida public universities you *must* enroll for at least one summer during your undergrad anyway, but it is best to take at least one every summer. Why? Keeps your brain sharp, your self-discipline strong, you forget less, it shortens your time by one full-time Fall or Spring semester.





Excellent advice.

I took Calc I and II in the same summer semeseter (i will not reveal how I managed to do that) but that was a killa!
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very bad this storm is not moving at all..someone is going to get flooding rain over 30 inches of rain.
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Quoting 1975. ncstorm:
Good night guys..see yall later on in the morning..
later ncstorm
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1975. ncstorm
Good night guys..see yall later on in the morning..
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1974. nigel20
Quoting nigel20:

Hi Caleb! I did three and a half semesters of Advance Engineering Mathematics, it was pretty tough. I was wondering what I got my self into at the time. :)

That should have been six and a half
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Quoting 1965. DonnieBwkGA:
2 of the top 5 deadliest hurricanes in the Atlantic.
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Quoting 1949. allancalderini:
In my country there has only been one hurricane landfall record.Mitch(1998)


Of all the modern hurricanes, this is the one that horrified me the most. It's the type of storm that I am truly afraid of occurring again.
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THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 17/0300 UTC CONSISTS OF A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N90W THROUGH A WEAK 101 MB
LOW NEAR 21N92W TO S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. A MID/UPPER LOW IS TO
THE NE NEAR 23N90W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
E OF THE LOWS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA DRAWING THE MOISTURE AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NE
OF THE LOW SYSTEM. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY
COVERING MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW GENERALLY MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Quoting 1961. sar2401:

Indeed, and we pick the wrong villains. It's not the personnel of the hurricane hunter squadron that are blowing money, it's huge over head of a bloated bureaucracy that consumes the money. It's unseen by the general public, so laying off park rangers, firefighters, and hurricane analysts ar PR moves to convince the public to convince the Congress to restore the budget cuts, otherwise you won't get into a National Park or we'll have hurricanes with no one watching. As you said, in private business, you get a bonus if you can cut your budget. With government, it just means you won't get the money next year, hence your empire will shrink. The real answer is to start cutting at the top, We could lose every assistant secretary to the special assistant secretary of the secretary of secretaries and never notice it. If I was president for a week, I'd make it real easy, Every job title on an organization chart that could be explained to me in one minute less would be fired. Park Ranger, that's easy to understand. They get to stay. Supervisory Program Specialist, FEMA, Salary Range $109,022.00 to $141,726.00/Per Year...No idea, you're fired. Just a week is all I'd need . :-)


LOL - we are in total agreement there. Much less the amount of money wasted by those who are supposed to be governing, and have not done much lately. However, that is and has not been the case, as they often exempt themselves, and their staff, from the very bills passed. IMHO, Congress should lead more by example than by posturing.
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Quoting 1948. daddyjames:


It did mine.

One other thing, if you can do not load up on all science/math courses all at once in a semester. Seen too many students flame out because it demands too much time. Have a "cushy" course that you can kick back and relax a little bit.


I've seen my students do the same. Many come to me now to help balance their course loads.

Another pearl of wisdom... if you are taking any 2-course sequences (foreign language, calc 1/2 if you have to have calc 2, etc), try to take them in back to back semesters. Same thing for courses that are in a sequence (for example, my students learn C, then C++ (Foundations of Computer Science), then more advanced C++ (Data Structures/Algorithm Analysis, each building on the last). Don't let more than a semester separate them, or the next course becomes far more difficult because of what you didn't retain because you didn't use it again right away ;-)

(I took Calculus I and Calculus II 23 years apart. That hurted. A lot.)

And like daddyjames said, *always* throw a cupcake class in there to "reduce" your workload (any course that is easy or interesting or fun does so).

Take courses over the summer if you can (at least 1). In Florida public universities you *must* enroll for at least one summer during your undergrad anyway, but it is best to take at least one every summer. Why? Keeps your brain sharp, your self-discipline strong, you forget less, it shortens your time by one full-time Fall or Spring semester.



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1967. sar2401
Quoting Tribucanes:
Sar, instead of laying off park rangers and the HH's, how about we deal with the real issue; criminal tax cuts the oil and gas industry get and the tax breaks that favor the super rich, push the middle class down and expand the bottom like wildfire. You favor cutting NOAA and laying off park rangers, that's just ignoring the pink elephant in the room and cutting programs that do a lot of good.

Trib, read my post #1961. If you think I favor laying off park rangers or hurricane hunter personnel, your reading comprehension skills need improvement.
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1966. nigel20
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Thanks daddyjames, appreciate the advice. I have a feeling Calculus will consume most of my time.

Hi Caleb! I did three and a half semesters of Advance Engineering Mathematics, it was pretty tough. I was wondering what I got my self into at the time. :)
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I love and appreciate passion! If you love weather, the tropics, surfing, watching football or watching children play. God bless the passionate! If one is passionate, I truly believe, that passion is all about better things, better beings, being simply better.

A dozen songs behind that thought at least. My encouragement would be to live, diversify your day, not just stuck on a puter of mindless, stillness. Take a walkabout. See the sun rise and set. Smell the roses. Enjoy the embrace of love and friendship. Be charitable. Give first, pay later. ;)

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Quoting 1957. SunriseSteeda:



Are you going in as a freshman? 4-year BS program?

Transfer student. I have my AA degree.
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1961. sar2401
Quoting daddyjames:


Yeah, but the way it works, departments are not rewarded if they cut their budgets, or try to minimize waste - instead their budgets are slashed. So, if one year, less money is needed to accomplish the tasks you are charged with - you cannot bank the money allocated to you, and the next year you are guarenteed less money. Maybe wise if you are pushing papers, were costs can be predicted, but not so with emergency response (which you are familiar with) nor with agricultural research (which i am familiar with). Hard to predict that a disease outbreak threatening crop production may occur. The system is a reflection of having the wrong priorities regarding government. There is waste and inefficiency, however not as much as folks are led on to believe. If we factored in the economic benefits versus the costs of some of these programs, then perhaps they would be more realistically funded.

Indeed, and we pick the wrong villains. It's not the personnel of the hurricane hunter squadron that are blowing money, it's huge over head of a bloated bureaucracy that consumes the money. It's unseen by the general public, so laying off park rangers, firefighters, and hurricane analysts ar PR moves to convince the public to convince the Congress to restore the budget cuts, otherwise you won't get into a National Park or we'll have hurricanes with no one watching. As you said, in private business, you get a bonus if you can cut your budget. With government, it just means you won't get the money next year, hence your empire will shrink. The real answer is to start cutting at the top, We could lose every assistant secretary to the special assistant secretary of the secretary of secretaries and never notice it. If I was president for a week, I'd make it real easy, Every job title on an organization chart that couldn't be explained to me in one minute or less would be fired. Park Ranger, that's easy to understand. They get to stay. Supervisory Program Specialist, FEMA, Salary Range $109,022.00 to $141,726.00/Per Year...No idea, you're fired. Just a week is all I'd need . :-)
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Quoting 1953. nigel20:

I've not seen a Lenny type track since then. It(Lenny) was pretty powerful though.


Backwards hurricane....

like they say here "Venia virao

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Sar, instead of laying off park rangers and the HH's, how about we deal with the real issue; criminal tax cuts the oil and gas industry get and the tax breaks that favor the super rich, push the middle class down and expand the bottom like wildfire. You favor cutting NOAA and laying off park rangers, that's just ignoring the pink elephant in the room and cutting programs that do a lot of good.
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1958. ncstorm
Quoting 1951. VR46L:


It is on an other model ....but I understand its not liked here



and to think the models weren't showing anything..:)..the lid is about to blow..
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Quoting 1919. GTstormChaserCaleb:
On the 26th, just in 9 days. Excited and nervous at the same time.


Quoting 1937. daddyjames:


Congrats. keep us updated.

Words of advice.
Don't get too distracted in the beginning.
Treat it as a job, with set hours to study and set hours to play.
And remember, every math and science course typically requires 2-3 hours of outside work/week per course credit, as a general rule of thumb.



Are you going in as a freshman? 4-year BS program?

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Irene 2011

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Quoting 1944. moonlightcowboy:


No, no, it's all cool. Every life, every person has to learn their way. Always ups and downs to any soul's life. I don't dwell here. Not a big thing at all. The site should be more respectful, as should the world and our communities be. If we're ever going to get forward, by dayumed, it's time to get forward! ;)


You got that right.
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1954. ncstorm
00z Navgem is showing almost the same path as the CMC but weaker with the 45 W wave-last frame

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1953. nigel20
Quoting sunlinepr:
Erika 2009


Jeanne 2004


Georges 1998


Hortense 1996



Lenny SW to NE hurricane (1999)




I've not seen a Lenny type track since then. It(Lenny) was pretty powerful though.
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1951. VR46L
Quoting 1942. GTstormChaserCaleb:
The CMC is very insistent and consistent on developing that wave between 45-50 West, I just wish we had either the GFS or Euro's support, then I would feel more confident in this coming to fruition.



It is on an other model ....but I understand its not liked here

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Quoting 1904. JLPR2:


We are sitting at the same amount of hurricanes. Since 1951, three hurricanes have made landfall in PR, Betsy (56), Hugo (89) and Georges(98).

Who knows, maybe we're in for a hurricane drought of 30+ years like it happened between 1956 and 1989.
In my country there has only been one hurricane landfall record.Mitch(1998)
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Quoting 1946. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Thanks daddyjames, appreciate the advice. I have a feeling Calculus will consume most of my time.


It did mine.

One other thing, if you can do not load up on all science/math courses all at once in a semester. Seen too many students flame out because it demands too much time. Have a "cushy" course that you can kick back and relax a little bit.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1937. daddyjames:


Congrats. keep us updated.

Words of advice.
Don't get too distracted in the beginning.
Treat it as a job, with set hours to study and set hours to play.
And remember, every math and science course typically requires 2-3 hours of outside work/week per course credit, as a general rule of thumb.
Thanks daddyjames, appreciate the advice. I have a feeling Calculus will consume most of my time.
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Erika 2009


Jeanne 2004


Georges 1998


Hortense 1996



Lenny SW to NE hurricane (1999)



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Quoting 1928. swflurker:
RE:MLC You need tough skin and a very open mind to play here. Been here almost 20 years. User name was reset when computer crashed. Cyclone Oz was lost for awhile and StormW lost it while he was pumping the ridge. Levi has seen it all while Pottery, Grother, and others just move on when morons test your patience. Your the bigger man. Let it go and have a great day!


No, no, it's all cool. Every life, every person has to learn their way. Always ups and downs to any soul's life. I don't dwell here. Not a big thing at all. The site should be more respectful, as should the world and our communities be. If we're ever going to get forward, by dayumed, it's time to get forward! ;)
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW GENERALLY MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS
IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Quoting 1930. ncstorm:
00z CMC has a 983 mb hurricane heading to NC..

oompfh!!

The CMC is very insistent and consistent on developing that wave between 45-50 West, I just wish we had either the GFS or Euro's support, then I would feel more confident in this coming to fruition.

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Sorry Brees...thought ya was 30 on and 30 off schedule on the rig.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather