92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Sorry Brees...thought ya was 30 on and 30 off schedule on the rig.
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Quoting 1933. moonlightcowboy:


Thanks, Sar, but what I wrote was important, in at least that it added some thought, at least to a few at the time. Thing is, there are two kinds of people: them learning something, and them learning nothing. People staying, people going.

I've about 30K posts, kind of shabby. Look at Pat, 100plusK. He and I can spar on politics, AGW, maybe even religion. Heck, I've made calls to VA folks to help him, but I can tell you this one immutable truth, he and I are exactly on the same page as far as awareness and preparedness. How we get there is always the challenge, unending challenge, and the most misunderstood portion of all that is the tropics.

Still, given all the knowledge and wisdom here, it's still weather. If it was all finite, none of us would be here. So, aside from politics, religion, and thusly too AGW, I am here only for the tropics and what the site can and should do to promote awareness and preparedness. No life, even a pet's life, should have to endure pointless ignorance. Are you here to serve self? Or serve others? That is the question every blogger should ask themselves.


Man, he went all existential on us. Must have had a good time tonight ;)
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Quoting 1934. HimacaneBrees:



Actually I'm uh huh working right now. I just got here Thursday morning. I work 14 days on and 14 off


Uh huh....LOL
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Quoting 1930. ncstorm:
00z CMC has a 983 mb hurricane heading to NC..

oompfh!!



So how did that 978 MB low with 92L the canadian showed do???? lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1919. GTstormChaserCaleb:
On the 26th, just in 9 days. Excited and nervous at the same time.


Congrats. keep us updated.

Words of advice.
Don't get too distracted in the beginning.
Treat it as a job, with set hours to study and set hours to play.
And remember, every math and science course typically requires 2-3 hours of outside work/week per course credit, as a general rule of thumb.

Edit: So, a three hour course = 9 hours outside work per week.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI AUG 16 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM PEWA...LOCATED 1390 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE
KAUAI...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 920 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...IT/S
OVERALL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN INHIBITED BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND
TROPICAL STORM PEWA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. A SURFACE TROUGH MORE THAN 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH
POINT HAWAII IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT MOVES WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

$$

KINEL
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Sar, I care not to be popular here. LOL. Not the deal.
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Quoting 1929. HurricaneHunterJoe:
How long ya off for Brees? 30 days?



Actually I'm uh huh working right now. I just got here Thursday morning. I work 14 days on and 14 off
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Quoting 1913. sar2401:

MLC, I have no idea what the issue was but, believe me, when the blog is moving along like this, what you wrote an hour ago is forgotten, except for a few people with bad tempers, and you can't please them anyway.:-)


Thanks, Sar, but what I wrote was important, in at least that it added some thought, at least to a few at the time. Thing is, there are two kinds of people: them learning something, and them learning nothing. People staying, people going.

I've about 30K posts, kind of shabby. Look at Pat, 100plusK. He and I can spar on politics, AGW, maybe even religion. Heck, I've made calls to VA folks to help him, but I can tell you this one immutable truth, he and I are exactly on the same page as far as awareness and preparedness. How we get there is always the challenge, unending challenge, and the most misunderstood portion of all that is the tropics.

Still, given all the knowledge and wisdom here, it's still weather. If it was all finite, none of us would be here. So, aside from politics, religion, and thusly too AGW, I am here only for the tropics and what the site can and should do to promote awareness and preparedness. No life, even a pet's life, should have to endure pointless ignorance. Are you here to serve self? Or serve others? That is the question every blogger should ask themselves.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1930. ncstorm:
00z CMC has a 983 mb hurricane heading to NC..

oompfh!!



Possible another Irene track?
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Quoting 1922. LAbonbon:


That is awesome! I'm sure you'll do very well. But what will the blog do in your absence :(
Oh don't worry I'll try my best to check in from time to time. Besides I am already addicted to this blog and I can't picture myself not being here around you wunderful people. :)
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1930. ncstorm
00z CMC has a 983 mb hurricane heading to NC..

oompfh!!

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How long ya off for Brees? 30 days?
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RE:MLC You need tough skin and a very open mind to play here. Been here almost 20 years. User name was reset when computer crashed. Cyclone Oz was lost for awhile and StormW lost it while he was pumping the ridge. Levi has seen it all while Pottery, Grother, and others just move on when morons test your patience. Your the bigger man. Let it go and have a great day!
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Is that the original LLC at 20N 93W ?
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Quoting 1921. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Got Shrimp to go with them?


Lot's of them Ruby Reds
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM ERIN...LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW GENERALLY MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS
IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE LOW GENERALLY MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS
IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1920. LAbonbon:


What, no Crown?


It won't fit in the survival case, but don't worry it comes in it's own pretty purple bag. So I'm good lol
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Quoting 1919. GTstormChaserCaleb:
On the 26th, just in 9 days. Excited and nervous at the same time.


That is awesome! I'm sure you'll do very well. But what will the blog do in your absence :(
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Quoting 1918. HimacaneBrees:
I'm got my survival kit ready and my early warning system set up. I'm good for the rest of the season now (unless i get into my survival supplies early)





Got Shrimp to go with them?
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Quoting 1918. HimacaneBrees:
I'm got my survival kit ready and my early warning system set up. I'm good for the rest of the season now (unless i get into my survival supplies early)





What, no Crown?
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Quoting 1910. LAbonbon:


Congratulations, Caleb. I didn't know you were headed there. When do you start?
On the 26th, just in 9 days. Excited and nervous at the same time.
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1917. JLPR2
Quoting 1911. nigel20:

Yeah, Jamaica and Puerto Rico had two of there worst hurricanes in 1988 and 1989 respectively. Gilbert is still the worst natural disaster to affect Jamaica.


In terms of strengthen 1928's Hurricane San Felipe II is still king here with 160mph, deadliest was Hurricane San Ciriaco of 1899 with 3,369 fatalities, but yes, Georges was really bad in general due to it crossing the island from east to west. Hugo was stronger but it only clipped the NE side.
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0z GFDL ensemble

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1915. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
whoa now.

direct linking no good!
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Some of our hits and close-by hurricanes


Link

Link
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1913. sar2401
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
WU, love it, despite the arrogance, egos, etc, but it can offer so much if one is discerning. My grandmother used to say "believe half of what you see and none of what you hear" - good wisdom. I always learn here, I challenge myself, challenge others sometimes, mostly I hope that I am perceived as someone who tries to help others learn, even if it's the limited amount of knowledge I have. These are interesting storms, have always captivated me. I yield, really do, to those much more learned, but I urge the real thing - and that's awareness and preparedness. I can assure you, I am not here to demonstrate my ignorance of where, when a storm or fall on land. I am a participant, a positive participant, and nothing or no one will shake that.

It's a good place. Be kind. Be helpful. Surely, I can be wrong, often, and if earlier this evening if I seemed sure, promise, it was purely speculation and unskilled opinion. I like to raise questions, discussion, and I hope in the future y'all will consider that even my poor thoughts may spark a bigger, brighter, smarter understanding on the tropics.

I am not here to bring the site or anyone down. I am here because I love the tropics, want to learn, share, and help promote a safe situation, so that we don't have loss of life or injury. That's it in a nutshell. Please forgive me for indulging, embellishing once in awhile. ;) Love y'all. Appreciate y'all. :)

MLC, I have no idea what the issue was but, believe me, when the blog is moving along like this, what you wrote an hour ago is forgotten, except for a few people with bad tempers, and you can't please them anyway.:-)
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Quoting 1884. Camille33:

i am going to the home depot tomorrow!
AHHA your busted, you live in FLORIDA.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1911. nigel20
Quoting JLPR2:


We are sitting at the same amount of hurricanes. Since 1951, three hurricanes have made landfall in PR, Betsy (56), Hugo (89) and Georges(98).

Who knows, maybe we're in for a hurricane drought of 30+ years like it happened between 1956 and 1989.

Yeah, Jamaica and Puerto Rico had two of there worst hurricanes in 1988 and 1989 respectively. Gilbert is still the worst natural disaster to affect Jamaica.
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Quoting 1886. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Thanks for the correction. Hopefully I will be able to discern that difference some more once I start my Meteorology program at Embry-Riddle. :)


Congratulations, Caleb. I didn't know you were headed there. When do you start?
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Can y'all post the 850 MB vort map that shows Africa? Want to see the convection that is about to move into the ATL.

Thanks
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BOC
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1907. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1896. KoritheMan:


You know I'm just trying to be funny. :)

I mean, I'm not joshing about wanting a storm. But I tend to exaggerate the desire a little bit, again to be funny.

I would be concerned with you and everyone else in the event a serious storm actually threatened.


I know you are. I tend to be a bit sarcastic sometimes, and tease a little, but that never seems to work in text. But seriously, I'm not judging you. I appreciate your enthusiasm. (Which is second only to Camille. No seriously, you've got to love his enthusiasm!)
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Quoting 1892. UncleCaveman:
So what exactly are we seeing with 92L right now? On maps it is shown to be to the West of the Yucatan, but there is rotation and what looks like (but I guess isn't?) an eye to the NW of the Yucatan. Are there two separate points of circulation right next to each other? I just don't understand what is happening with this storm...


The big circulation NW of the Yucatan with all of the convection is an ULL. It is a rotation, but it's mid and upper level only, so no lower level circulation. Most likely, it will weaken and head northwards soon, but I might keep a subtropical development scenario in the back of my head.

92L is centered at 20.7N, 92.5W and is moving west, maybe with a very slight northward component after taking a sharp turn in the last hour. This is the LLC, and it can be seen on some of the IR satellite loops. I'd recommend the simple Shortwave IR one to see it.
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1904. JLPR2
Quoting 1887. nigel20:

Hi JLPR! Hurricane Sandy was the first hurricane to have a direct impact on Jamaica since Gilbert in 1988.There have been only three direct impacts (hurricanes) in Jamaica since 1951.


We are sitting at the same amount of hurricanes. Since 1951, three hurricanes have made landfall in PR, Betsy (56), Hugo (89) and Georges(98).

Who knows, maybe we're in for a hurricane drought of 30+ years like it happened between 1956 and 1989.
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Quoting 1863. sar2401:

Actually, I can't recall either, but it was someone who apparently doesn't believe that DOD doing some simple things like buying cheaper paper clips could cover many years of hurricane hunter flights. I have never been involved in a federal project that didn't have massive waste and inefficiency built-in, but laying off hurricane hunter staff and park rangers is a much better way to make sure you get all the money you wasted last year back again.


Yeah, but the way it works, departments are not rewarded if they cut their budgets, or try to minimize waste - instead their budgets are slashed. So, if one year, less money is needed to accomplish the tasks you are charged with - you cannot bank the money allocated to you, and the next year you are guarenteed less money. Maybe wise if you are pushing papers, were costs can be predicted, but not so with emergency response (which you are familiar with) nor with agricultural research (which i am familiar with). Hard to predict that a disease outbreak threatening crop production may occur. The system is a reflection of having the wrong priorities regarding government. There is waste and inefficiency, however not as much as folks are led on to believe. If we factored in the economic benefits versus the costs of some of these programs, then perhaps they would be more realistically funded.
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Quoting 1892. UncleCaveman:
So what exactly are we seeing with 92L right now? On maps it is shown to be to the West of the Yucatan, but there is rotation and what looks like (but I guess isn't?) an eye to the NW of the Yucatan. Are there two separate points of circulation right next to each other? I just don't understand what is happening with this storm...


The northern Yucatan circulation is just an eddy within the larger-scale cyclonic gyre comprising this tropical wave. The real center is west of the Yucatan, devoid of convection.
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1901. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1886. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Thanks for the correction. Hopefully I will be able to discern that difference some more once I start my Meteorology program at Embry-Riddle. :)


Link

Good site as a whole, actually. Very great stuff.
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1899. Patrap
N America Surface
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Simple....All we need a passive JMO, lots of SAL, dry air, the interaction of ULLs over CV lows and a strong early cold front to deactivate this hurricane season into our next surfing season....

Today


November 6, 2013
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1897. JLPR2
It will be interesting to see how this TW pulls together, the large area of convection from yesterday split from the main spin and is trying to form by itself at the coast, but now the LLC is on a collision course with it, they'll have to merge.

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Quoting 1864. LAbonbon:


Oh, how sweet, I'm in your thoughts :P

Did you see the post where Baha changed the phrase shred-wishers into shred casters? Our little group feels more 'official' somehow...

You'll likely get your major. But, hey, who am I to judge? You want what you want *shrugs*


You know I'm just trying to be funny. :)

I mean, I'm not joshing about wanting a storm. But I tend to exaggerate the desire a little bit, again to be funny.

I would be concerned with you and everyone else in the event a serious storm actually threatened.
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Quoting 1881. daddyjames:


And landfalling has an extremely technical definition. The exact center of a storm has to pass over land before a storm is considered as making landfall. A large powerful storm skimming the coastline obviously has effects on people as it is going by.

All in all, they are indicative of the general frequency of the events. If you live in LA or SoFl, its better to always be prepared. And no guarantees, as the 2004 season in FL showed with two landfalling 'canes literally only a few miles apart.


Agreed. I'm in LA :)
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1894. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
So what exactly are we seeing with 92L right now? On maps it is shown to be to the West of the Yucatan, but there is rotation and what looks like (but I guess isn't?) an eye to the NW of the Yucatan. Are there two separate points of circulation right next to each other? I just don't understand what is happening with this storm...
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Quoting 1873. Civicane49:
Large, well-defined curved band to the west.

I am going to say that Pewa is going to reach cat 1.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather