92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1791. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
surface map says DSIPT on that area near 40 west



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1789. VTG
I don't know if 92L will ever develop, but if the new GFS and NAM runs verify we could end up seeing a huge amount of rain around Pensacola! Hopefully flooding won't be an issue although it's already raining heavily here...
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1788. docrod
Quoting 1780. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
give it 24 hrs over water first always give cv systems 24 hrs over water before making any guess about em

however some have been tagged on land just prior to entering the basin but they are rare real rare


True KOG ... but it's an impressive train goin' on right now!
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1787. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1769. VAbeachhurricanes:
0Z GFS shows absolutely nada through 168hrs

dont be shocked i said it first!!
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1784. scott39
Looking forward to the NHC 2.
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1783. Gearsts
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1782. docrod
Quoting 1779. Patrap:
But the Air Force also man's Minuteman 2 Silos, and do you know what those Monthly silo rental fee's are ?









Don R .... Mr Sweetness. ;>)
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1781. sar2401
Quoting MahFL:


The main problem right now is the pilots have to be furlowed 2 days per month I believe, so it's not just fuel cost, it's available flying hours of the pilots.

Not true, no pilots are on furlough. They are Air Force Reserve, not NOAA. NOAA furloughs were also canceled in May,
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1780. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1765. docrod:


There is also a new one just coming off Africa with spin already right behind this one.
give it 24 hrs over water first always give cv systems 24 hrs over water before making any guess about em

however some have been tagged on land just prior to entering the basin but they are rare real rare
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1779. Patrap
But the Air Force also man's Minuteman 2 Silos,.. do you know what those Monthly silo rental fee's are ?







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1778. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
12:00 PM JST August 17 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression South Of Okinawa

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 21.1N 124.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 21.3N 127.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South Of Okinawa
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1760. nigel20:

Yeah, I hope so too though "when it rains it pours" here in Jamaica. :)


That is Always how it is in Texas too. :)
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1776. scott39
Quoting 1768. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
be nice to that hunk of junk could run ya over
I know, it makes me feel better when I call it that :) I dont like the unknown on this one.
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Quoting 1745. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Atlantic sea surface temperatures are above average, wind shear is below average, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is negative, the ENSO is very nearly a La Nina, the Gulf of Guinea is cool, Africa has been wetter than normal, a series of convectively-coupled kelvin waves have and will be moving through the East Atlantic, and we've got a bonified MJO pulse coming by the start of September.

Who's ready for the real season to begin?



Only thing that bothers me a little is the fact that the Indian Ocean has warmed substantially over the past week.


Meaning what in regards to Indian Ocean cooling?
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Quoting 1759. whitewabit:


Just fuel for a 6 hour flight would be over 20K and then normal maintenance and the pay for 10 flight crews to cover the three aircraft.. 5 members in each flight crew .. so guessing at somewhere around 30-35K including the dropsonde they use each mission ..


And since the majority of the recon flights are military, they are not exempt from the sequestration. A recent article describing that if there are three potential storms, there may not be enough to do recon

Link
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Quoting 1704. ProgressivePulse:
Have to say though that this is a pretty interesting sight this time of year. Looks like a Pink Elephant.



I get a bit nervous when people tell me they are seeing pink elephants. ...... Unless I am seeing them too.
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1772. scott39
There are some nasty storms heading to the W coast of Fl, from 92L.
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1771. sar2401
Quoting GeauxGirl:



TS Isidore put 6 foot of water in my yard. It didn't rain much or blow much, but it pushed Lake Ponchatrain around enough to keep me stranded for 24 hours. :)

Tropical Storm Isadore was only a tropical storm when it came ashore in Louisiana. It was a 934 mb, extremely powerful cat 3 hurricane in the Gulf, and only weakened after coming ashore in the Yucatan. Once it got back into the Gulf, it was a very large tropical storm of near hurricane strength that was a 982 mb low. It was able to push a large storm surge ashore because of its large size, low pressure, and near hurricane force winds as it strengthened just before landfall. A 1009 low with 25 mph winds simply doesn't have the energy to push that kind of surge.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1759. whitewabit:


Just fuel for a 6 hour flight would be over 20K and then normal maintenance and the pay for 10 flight crews to cover the three aircraft.. 5 members in each flight crew .. so guessing at somewhere around 30-35K including the dropsonde they use each mission ..

Each engine burns over a 1000 lbs an hour..around 150 gals each times $5.00/gal(guessing at that )so around $3,000/hr for fuel alone.
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0Z GFS shows absolutely nada through 168hrs
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1768. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1761. scott39:
Does this hunk of junk in the GOM have to work the ULL down to the surface for developement.
be nice to that hunk of junk could run ya over
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Quoting 1756. all4hurricanes:
those two new depression in the wpac look like they are going to dance
the forecasts are crazy


Fujiwhara Effect.
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1766. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
12:00 PM JST August 17 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Okinawa

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1000 hPa) located at 25.9N 129.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 27.7N 127.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Near Okinawa
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1765. docrod
Quoting 1762. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
xx/xx/xx


There is also a new one just coming off Africa with spin already right behind this one.
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1764. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 1755. scott39:
Looks like all levels of vorticity are being stretched N for 92L
same thing it did when it was on the other side stretched itself out
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Quoting 1762. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
xx/xx/xx

wow here we go 94l coming soon!!
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1762. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
xx/xx/xx
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1761. scott39
Does this hunk of junk in the GOM have to work the ULL down to the surface for developement.
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1760. nigel20
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Hi Nigel. Thanks. I'm glad to hear there was some improvement. Hopefully there will be more rain there too. :)

Yeah, I hope so too though "when it rains it pours" here in Jamaica. :)
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Quoting 1703. DonnieBwkGA:


How much does a recon flight into a GOM or Caribbean storm cost?


Just fuel for a 6 hour flight would be over 20K and then normal maintenance and the pay for 10 flight crews to cover the three aircraft.. 5 members in each flight crew .. so guessing at somewhere around 30-35K including the dropsonde they use each mission ..
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1758. MahFL
Quoting 1703. DonnieBwkGA:


How much does a recon flight into a GOM or Caribbean storm cost?


The main problem right now is the pilots have to be furlowed 2 days per month I believe, so it's not just fuel cost, it's available flying hours of the pilots.
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those two new depression in the wpac look like they are going to dance
the forecasts are crazy
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1755. scott39
Looks like all levels of vorticity are being stretched N for 92L
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Quoting 1745. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Atlantic sea surface temperatures are above average, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is negative, the ENSO is very nearly a La Nina, the Gulf of Guinea is cool, Africa has been wetter than normal, a series of convectively-coupled kelvin waves have and will be moving through the East Atlantic, and we've got a bonified MJO pulse coming by the start of September.

Who's ready for the real season to begin?



Only thing that bothers me a little is the fact that the Indian Ocean has warmed substantially over the past week.
Yes, there is another surge of Indian Ocean moisture on its way
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Quoting 1744. DonnieBwkGA:
GTstormChaserCaleb I saw the graphics you posted last night about major hurricane recurrence intervals. They had something like 33 and 36 year recurrence intervals but there hasn't been a major hurricane in 115 years.
Do you know how they calculated those recurrence intervals?


If GT isn't on, I can answer that one. His post intrigued me so much I researched it to the point of a migraine...

I'll just wait a few and see if he gets back to you?
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Quoting 1740. nigel20:

Hi AtHome...Yes Indeed! I hope that you'll get some well needed rain over there in Texas. We had some improvement in Kingston from the recent rains, but one of two major reservoirs is currently at crisis level, despite an improvement from 28% to 34% of capacity.


Hi Nigel. Thanks. I'm glad to hear there was some improvement. Hopefully there will be more rain there too. :)
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1751. flsky
Quoting 1720. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


looks happy


lol

evil grin
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Quoting 1745. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Atlantic sea surface temperatures are above average, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is negative, the ENSO is very nearly a La Nina, the Gulf of Guinea is cool, Africa has been wetter than normal, a series of convectively-coupled kelvin waves have and will be moving through the East Atlantic, and we've got a bonified MJO pulse coming by the start of September.

Who's ready for the real season to begin?



Only thing that bothers me a little is the fact that the Indian Ocean has warmed substantially over the past week.


Yeah it has bothered me too... just can't shake that weird Indian ocean warmer feeling.
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1749. docrod
Quoting 1746. flsky:

They could feel it via telegraph?! --sorry, couldn't resist.


Thinking the same ... ;>)
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Quoting 1744. DonnieBwkGA:
GTstormChaserCaleb I saw the graphics you posted last night about major hurricane recurrence intervals. They had something like 33 and 36 year recurrence intervals but there hasn't been a major hurricane in 115 years.
Do you know how they calculated those recurrence intervals?


A dart board.
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1746. flsky
Quoting 1734. DonnieBwkGA:


People in Washington DC and St. Louis received word of the earthquake in Charleston SC in 1886 before they felt it via telegraph.

They could feel it via telegraph?! --sorry, couldn't resist.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Atlantic sea surface temperatures are above average, wind shear is below average, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is negative, the ENSO is very nearly a La Nina, the Gulf of Guinea is cool, Africa has been wetter than normal, a series of convectively-coupled kelvin waves have and will be moving through the East Atlantic, and we've got a bonified MJO pulse coming by the start of September.

Who's ready for the real season to begin?



Only thing that bothers me a little is the fact that the Indian Ocean has warmed substantially over the past week.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1743. docrod
Quoting 1735. Levi32:


I don't think it's going to become a closed low. It will remain an area of enhanced vorticity and stretch northward, but I doubt it will become the focal point of the system. Tomorrow there may not be much of a "center" at all so much as a stretched wave axis. The best chance for true development will be just off the western gulf coast after the shortwave begins lifting out, in my opinion.


I have seen a ull claw it's way to the surface in the '90s but doggone it is rare.
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look at 40 west!!!
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather