92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2441 - 2391

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Wonderful north wind in LA providing relief from the sweltering sweaty sweat weather!

August must be the new October.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2440. Patrap
Looking up outside I can see the upper battle.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's not over till mother nature says it's over for 92L. It'll still develop but into a minimal ts of 40-45mph at landfall. IMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2435. Dakster:


Weren't they evacuating oil rigs yesterday?


Only if they were watching CNN. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2437. pcola57
What a mess..



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
More than 300 millimeters (11.8 inches) of rain fell on the Amur, Khabarovsk and Primorye regions from July 1 through Aug. 12, causing floods there and in the neighboring Jewish Autonomous Region, according to data from the weather center. Some areas in the Far East received a year’s rain in the period, the center said yesterday.

“We have never seen such a large-scale flood in our country’s history,” Alexander Frolov, chief forecaster at the center, said today on state television channel Rossiya 24. “The flood covers territory from Lake Baikal to the Pacific Ocean.”


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2435. Dakster
Quoting 2432. daddyjames:


That was so yesterday - today it gonna go nuclear!


Weren't they evacuating oil rigs yesterday?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2416. RGVtropicalWx13:

Respectfully disagree. Look at it's percentage by the nhc still. If this was a 0% then it would be deactivated. Looks to me this is still a threat to develop.


Yeah I don't think they will either. But I do think they should.

They will back away slowly from it by lowering percentages and finally acknowledging that the main event is just the rain that is being amplified by pulses of energy riding along the dip in the jet.

Nothing tropical in the offing in my estimation, which is always right, except when it isn't.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
What a boring hurricane season. Here we are in august and storms are still getting sheared to pieces and choking on dry air. Looks like we are entering an unactive phase.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2428. CybrTeddy:
FWIW, CNN is reporting that 92L is expected to "explode" in the Gulf of Mexico.

How typical.


That was so yesterday - today it gonna go nuclear!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We're going to have to watch this wave very closely over the next week as it slowly traverses westward.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2429. SLU
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
FWIW, CNN is reporting that 92L is expected to "explode" in the Gulf of Mexico.

How typical.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2418. CybrTeddy:
IMO, the odds on 92L should be decreased to 20/30%, this is no longer a threat to develop.
once the wave fully emerges off africa, should they invest it right away?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2426. Skyepony (Mod)
PEWA with it's invest friend to the NE in the CPAC..all together looking definitely odd:P

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2423. ricderr:
PEWA looking odd..


wrong picture there.......spaceshot of a polar bear looking for ice


I see that image too, but I saw it 1 minute before you did.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's mostly rained all night and morning here in PC. I just noticed the corner of my neighbor's house is already in water and most of their yard is going under. Drainage ditches up to the road now. We have some heavy stuff moving in again now. Ugh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2422. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 2412. Rmadillo:


Sure thing.

Link

Was as low as 29.89 but now back on the rise.


Thanks..winds are coming down too. That buoy is pretty far north of the mess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2421. Kyon5

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2418. CybrTeddy:
IMO, the odds on 92L should be decreased to 20/30%, this is no longer a threat to develop.


I give your odds of 20%/30% for development 80%/80.5%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2419. Skyepony (Mod)
PEWA looking odd..



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
IMO, the odds on 92L should be decreased to 20/30%, this is no longer a threat to develop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2415. wunderweatherman123:
looks like 92L is done and erin is almost dead. that wave off africa has a strong vorticity, GFS develops this wave.


I'm guessing you aren't a fan of Dr. M's 70% odds of 92L developing either?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2398. Rmadillo:
NHC should deactivate 92L. They won't today, but it isn't warranted any longer. Just a stretched out surface trough of marginally low pressure.

Respectfully disagree. Look at it's percentage by the nhc still. If this was a 0% then it would be deactivated. Looks to me this is still a threat to develop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like 92L is done and erin is almost dead. that wave off africa has a strong vorticity, GFS develops this wave.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2414. barbamz
Hello everybody on the other sides of the screens, some in the heat, some in the rain of strange 92L ...
Moreover the fire season reaches another summit, unfortunately:

Major wildfires burn in Idaho (with video report)
August 17, 2013, 8:05 am

NECN/NBC News: Kurt Gregory) - Fueled by strong, gusty winds and tinder dry vegetation, several raging infernos are burning out of control in Idaho. Of greatest concern is the massive Beaver Creek fire, spreading and forcing evacuation orders for more than 1,500 homes.

In addition, pre-evacuation orders are in effect for the resort towns of Ketchum and Sun Valley, putting people on notice they could be asked to flee at a moments notice.

Thousands of residents and vacationers are watching closely and weighing their options.

Heavy traffic lined the highways out of town, a strong indication many people aren't willing to take any chances.

Meanwhile, hundreds of state and federal firefighters were dispatched to fight the wildfire while those within its reach are keeping a wary eye to the horizon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2409. pcola57:
Not too bad yet as the Ducks are digging it for sure..
I did put my "floaties" on though.. :)


See this people...Floridians are always prepared. Way to go Pco57. +1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2405. Skyepony:

You got a link?


Sure thing.

Link

Was as low as 29.89 but now back on the rise.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
In saying that above though you still can't take your eye off of swirls anywhere close to home in 85 degree water.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2410. Skyepony (Mod)
CMC error (nm) at 72hrs there on the right..

CMC 46.9 96.8 164.3 21.2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2409. pcola57
Not too bad yet as the Ducks are digging it for sure..
I did put my "floaties" on though.. :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2408. ncstorm
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2403. Dakster:
Anyone else waiting for MisterPerfect's avatar to take flight? Maybe birdman can do a recon run for us?

Gro, Cat 4 Major in the GOM as 92L stalls and gains strength?


+1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some locations along coast of fl panhandle now over 5" so far with unofficial rain totals.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2405. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 2401. Rmadillo:
Pressure rising at the buoy.

You got a link?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2398. Rmadillo:
NHC should deactivate 92L. They won't today, but it isn't warranted any longer. Just a stretched out surface trough of marginally low pressure.


They won't. The gulf is too warm. The east coast is a different story. Of course as we saw with Dorian, once the NHC sends a storm to the corner, it creates a tantrum and stays annoying for the next 36 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2403. Dakster
Anyone else waiting for MisterPerfect's avatar to take flight? Maybe birdman can do a recon run for us?

Gro, Cat 4 Major in the GOM as 92L stalls and gains strength?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2398. Rmadillo:
NHC should deactivate 92L. They won't today, but it isn't warranted any longer. Just a stretched out surface trough of marginally low pressure.

Agreed. If you look at all the surface obs. you could draw a sharp U from pensacola to the western tip of the yucatan with southerly winds on the east side and northerly on the west.
Actually not far off from what the GFS had drawn out several days ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pressure rising at the buoy.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2400. ncstorm


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1049 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

NCC129-171645-
/O.NEW.KILM.FA.Y.0107.130817T1449Z-130817T1645Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
1049 AM EDT SAT AUG 17 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

CENTRAL NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT

* AT 1046 AM EDT RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
MONKEY JUNCTION MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE
HEAVY SHOWERS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN
IN ABOUT AN HOUR.

* LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MASONBORO...MYRTLE GROVE...OGDEN...SEAGATE...SILVER LAKE...SMITH
CREEK...WILMINGTON...WINDEMERE...WRIGHTSBORO AND UNCW CAMPUS.

MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS THAT LOCALIZED FLOODING IS EXPECTED AND STREAM
FLOWS ARE ELEVATED. FLOODING MAY BECOME A PROBLEM NEAR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND LOW SPOTS ALONG ROADS OR INTERSECTIONS. DO
NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS. FIND AN ALTERNATE ROUTE...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 800-697-3901...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3418 7781 3417 7782 3405 7788 3405 7792
3429 7796 3429 7778
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2399. ricderr
by the way mp....isn't it great to be back.....i think i might even have to create a blog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC should deactivate 92L. They won't today, but it isn't warranted any longer. Just a stretched out surface trough of marginally low pressure.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2395. ricderr:
well nothing too exciting in the tropics today


what man???....are you daft???....we have a ts fishkiller out there....there's decimated flying fish floundering (get it? flounder?)on the surface...

here in the gulf we have a cat 5 wannabe....24 hours until major.....and headed straight to tampa...


.05%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2396. ricderr
I saw it 16 hours before you did.




i liked you better when you were a troll....LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2395. ricderr
well nothing too exciting in the tropics today


what man???....are you daft???....we have a ts fishkiller out there....there's decimated flying fish floundering (get it? flounder?)on the surface...

here in the gulf we have a cat 5 wannabe....24 hours until major.....and headed straight to tampa...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2391. ricderr:
thank you for that graphic rmadillo which points out what i've been saying for three days now....there is an eye


ricderr...100 percent correct...and my bs don't stank either


I saw it 16 hours before you did.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

could be localized but the 001 buoy in the central gulf swithched to west in the last hour.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 2336. Grothar:


Not for me. I can see a number of you have had trouble with the poor thing. (and it ain't over yet.


Is it really stalled?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
2391. ricderr
thank you for that graphic rmadillo which points out what i've been saying for three days now....there is an eye


ricderr...100 percent correct...and my bs don't stank either
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2441 - 2391

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather