92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting 1531. Grothar:


That is the biggest LOL I've given all night.

Drum roll. Here come the southcasters.


I'll jump on board! I have no shame, and nothing to lose!

South it goes!
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1539. Levi32
Quoting 1536. Drakoen:


I did not neglect that. The mere fact of me mentioning a vorticity stretching already implies, if you were not understandably capable, that the system splits into two entities with a piece continuing west but also a much more potent piece moving north.


Yes, a baroclinic trough and a tropical low, called 92L.
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1538. JLPR2
Quoting 1532. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Erin isn't strong enough to create a weakness of any significance. In fact, the high to its north will be influencing the storm instead of the other way around.


The feature emerging at this moment just appears to be a dying Mesoscale Convective Vortex. The main area of interest is the low pressure system located farther east.


Used to think that until I saw this...
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Quoting 1518. daddyjames:


Since Drak and Levi seem intent on bashing each other over the models (not taking sides in you disagreement, just commenting upon the passionate discussion going on) - could you answer my legitimate question?


I'm at this point nowcasting myself. Sometimes the models just bug me in situations like this with weaker systems.

Honestly normally in a situation like this they tend to track the stronger of the two pieces during the split because the other one tends to slowly weaken and die. (as it appears is happening now with the one in the Bay of Campeche) So if they do split since it came from the same wave axis interacting with an upper level system they would track the strongest piece at the moment of splitting.

For example if the system splits tonight and the northern portion becomes dominant that would be 92L and they would track it until it died. If during that time the other portion became active I believe they would tag it a new invest. Though I have seen situations where a invest has split they tracked a half of it that then died and the other half began to develop so they started tracking it as the same invest.

Short answer its complicated and up to the powers that be and the situation.



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1536. Drakoen
Quoting 1520. Levi32:


And you refuse to see the low-level trough currently called 92L continuing slowly westward through the whole thing.

This other "system" is located along a thickness contour. It's baroclinic feedback. Note the 1009mb low staying behind to the south. That's 92L, the tropical entity.



I did not neglect that. The mere fact of me mentioning a vorticity stretching already implies, if you were not understandably capable, that the system splits into two entities with a piece continuing west but also a much more potent piece moving north.
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Quoting 1529. Grothar:


Oh, they do this every year. It is good for both of them to exercise their debating muscles. Colleagues often have these discussions. I have had many of these over the years, but I usually end up punching the other guy out. But Levi and Drak and gentlemen.


Yes they are. Now for you . . . :D
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1533. Levi32
Quoting 1514. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well we have to remember that a majority of those plots are solely GFDL and HWRF model ensemble forecasts. And they're not exactly known for being the most reliable models to use lol. Latest GFS dissipates this in a few days.

Levi, could you add a CPAC domain to your site? Had to use Dr. Maue's to view the forecast for Pewa.


The western Pacific domain on my site covers all the way over to 160W, where the eastern Pacific domain begins. Pewa's track should be contained fully within the WPAC domain. Here's the GFS initialization:

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Quoting 1517. Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you see a big weakness hole that Erin may cause to affect the future track?

Erin isn't strong enough to create a weakness of any significance. In fact, the high to its north will be influencing the storm instead of the other way around.

Quoting 1524. Saltydogbwi1:


Looks to me like there are two low level circulations/waves pretty close together...one has just come off the coast and the other is under the convection that is firing just inland...or are my eyes deceiving me?

The feature emerging at this moment just appears to be a dying Mesoscale Convective Vortex. The main area of interest is the low pressure system located farther east.
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1531. Grothar
Quoting 1527. daddyjames:


Wonderful, now we are going to have a third front? ;)


That is the biggest LOL I've given all night.

Drum roll. Here come the southcasters.
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Quoting 1528. Levi32:
Quoting 1497. daddyjames:


So, lets say the ULL does pull off to the north - as a subtropical system. And the llc of 92L hangs out to the south. Do we have 92La and 92Lb, or does the ULL system become separate due to the involvement of the separately evolved ULL?


It depends. There will probably be some kind of connecting trough between the two, but it's up to the NHC whether to label them different systems. Chances are that by the time the northern piece of energy becomes truly separate, it will be a baroclinic system disqualified from being called a tropical disturbance.


Thanks for your input.
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1529. Grothar
Quoting 1518. daddyjames:


Since Drak and Levi seem intent on bashing each other over the models (not taking sides in you disagreement, just commenting upon the passionate discussion going on) - could you answer my legitimate question?


Oh, they do this every year. It is good for both of them to exercise their debating muscles. Colleagues often have these discussions. I have had many of these over the years, but I usually end up punching the other guy out. But Levi and Drak and gentlemen.
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1528. Levi32
Quoting 1497. daddyjames:


So, lets say the ULL does pull off to the north - as a subtropical system. And the llc of 92L hangs out to the south. Do we have 92La and 92Lb, or does the ULL system become separate due to the involvement of the separately evolved ULL?


It depends. There will probably be some kind of connecting trough between the two, but it's up to the NHC whether to label them different systems. Chances are that by the time the northern piece of energy becomes truly separate, it will be a baroclinic system disqualified from being called a tropical disturbance.
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Quoting 1521. Grothar:
We could be talking about a Pacific storm soon LOL.

So all you westcasters and northcasters would be wrong.





Wonderful, now we are going to have a third front? ;)
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Quoting 1524. Saltydogbwi1:


Looks to me like there are two low level circulations/waves pretty close together...one has just come off the coast and the other is under the convection that is firing just inland...or are my eyes deceiving me?

That's what I think
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I'm just tired of this ridiculousness. It's like how you want one or the other, not in between. Strengthen, or fizzle out.


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Quoting 1509. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think the tropical wave over western Africa has a good chance to become our first potent tropical cyclone of the season. It's absolutely massive...while this should help it fight off SAL and dry air once it emerges into the Atlantic, it also means it will take a while to develop. This will not be a Dorian or Erin in terms of tropical cyclogenesis. A slowly-organizing wave also means it's likely to take a farther west track than most later this season; the GFS suggests that this doesn't begin developing in earnest until it's barely northeast of the Leeward Islands. I think it will become a system before that. Long-term track uncertain, but it doesn't appear to be a Caribbean cruiser right now.



Looks to me like there are two low level circulations/waves pretty close together...one has just come off the coast and the other is under the convection that is firing just inland...or are my eyes deceiving me?
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Quoting 1516. ncstorm:




LOL - ncstorm. That is perfect. Love them guys!
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1522. trey33
Quoting 1516. ncstorm:



ok that's funny
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1521. Grothar
We could be talking about a Pacific storm soon LOL.

So all you westcasters and northcasters would be wrong.



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1520. Levi32
Quoting 1512. Drakoen:


Thanks for posting that loop that does clearly show the vorticity advecting up from the south with aid from the upper level trough.


And you refuse to see the low-level trough currently called 92L continuing slowly westward through the whole thing.

This other "system" is located along a thickness contour. It's baroclinic feedback. Note the 1009mb low staying behind to the south. That's 92L, the tropical entity.

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Quoting 1516. ncstorm:




LOL....
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Quoting 1513. HurricaneKing:
Link

I for one don't normally like to compare one storm to another storm but I will say shortwave infrared tonight is reminding me of Andrea earlier this year. On the loop we can see one circulation in the center of the upper level low around 22.5 90.5. The other circulation that has the appearance of something degenerating into an open wave is located around 20.5 92. The reason I compare this to Andrea is that before she developed she did similar with a large broad circulation getting ejected out and stalling in the Bay while her northern circulation eventually developed into the storm. The biggest difference here is that in this case the northern circulation is interacting with an upper level low.

But my point is that Andrea also left behind a chunk of energy that if I recall correctly even had a yellow circle for a while as it began to move northward. Therefore I could very easily see the northern circulation developing and running for the Gulf Coast states while the Guts as levi calls them though in this case Id prefer leftovers lol stay behind and meander slower westward.
Quoting 1497. daddyjames:


So, lets say the ULL does pull off to the north - as a subtropical system. And the llc of 92L hangs out to the south. Do we have 92La and 92Lb, or does the ULL system become separate due to the involvement of the separately evolved ULL?


Since Drak and Levi seem intent on bashing each other over the models (not taking sides in you disagreement, just commenting upon the passionate discussion going on) - could you answer my legitimate question?
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Quoting 1509. TropicalAnalystwx13:
I think the tropical wave over western Africa has a good chance to become our first potent tropical cyclone of the season. It's absolutely massive...while this should help it fight off SAL and dry air once it emerges into the Atlantic, it also means it will take a while to develop. This will not be a Dorian or Erin in terms of tropical cyclogenesis. A slowly-organizing wave also means it's likely to take a farther west track than most later this season; the GFS suggests that this doesn't begin developing in earnest until it's barely northeast of the Leeward Islands. I think it will become a system before that. Long-term track uncertain, but it doesn't appear to be a Caribbean cruiser right now.



Do you see a big weakness hole that Erin may cause to affect the future track?
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1516. ncstorm
weather was rainy today here in NC..dont know when we will see the sun..

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1515. JLPR2
...ERIN IS A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...

11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 16
Location: 18.5°N 34.5°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
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Quoting 1495. MiamiHurricanes09:
Completely serious lol. I haven't really analyzed much so I could be dead wrong, but it looks to me like the CPHC is over amplifying the potency of the upper-level winds towards the west. Intensity forecasts like this usually indicate something.


Well we have to remember that a majority of those plots are solely GFDL and HWRF model ensemble forecasts. And they're not exactly known for being the most reliable models to use lol. Latest GFS dissipates this in a few days.

Levi, could you add a CPAC domain to your site? Had to use Dr. Maue's to view the forecast for Pewa.
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Link

I for one don't normally like to compare one storm to another storm but I will say shortwave infrared tonight is reminding me of Andrea earlier this year. On the loop we can see one circulation in the center of the upper level low around 22.5 90.5. The other circulation that has the appearance of something degenerating into an open wave is located around 20.5 92. The reason I compare this to Andrea is that before she developed she did similar with a large broad circulation getting ejected out and stalling in the Bay while her northern circulation eventually developed into the storm. The biggest difference here is that in this case the northern circulation is interacting with an upper level low.

But my point is that Andrea also left behind a chunk of energy that if I recall correctly even had a yellow circle for a while as it began to move northward. Therefore I could very easily see the northern circulation developing and running for the Gulf Coast states while the Guts as levi calls them though in this case Id prefer leftovers lol stay behind and meander slowly westward.
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1512. Drakoen
Quoting 1505. Levi32:


That vort max originates SE of New Orleans. Check the loop. It does not come up from the south. It's baroclinically generated by the model within the shortwave trough, aided by advected energy from 92L, whose wave axis continues westward by Day 3.



Thanks for posting that loop that does clearly show the vorticity advecting up from the south with aid from the upper level trough.
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Crazy number of flooding reports from the Savannah area today:

Estill hammock Road is flooded.
1 miles ESE of Tybee Island, Chatham County- Heavy rain m5.69 inch, reported by mesonet.
Intersection of Atlantic Ave and Henry street flooded.
Intersection of Columbus street and 55th street flooded.
Car drove into flood waters under Railroad bridge near the intersection of Henry street and east broad.
Intersection of Habersham street and 53th street flooded.
Victory drive flooded between Bee Road and bull street.
Intersection of Drayton street and Duffy street flooded.
Intersection of Anderson street and paulsen street flooded.
Intersection of Lathrop street and Augusta Ave flooded.
Dozens of roads flooded in the east and south portions of Savannah. One car stalled out and was floating in a flooded Road.
Water surrounding homes up to porch level.
Intersection of bull street and 37th street flooded.
Intersection of Washington Ave and abercorn street flooded.
Waters Ave flooded between Victory drive and 51st street.
Intersection of Victory drive and mlk Blvd flooded.
Intersection of paulsen street and 60th street flooded.
Intersection of bull street and 40th street flooded.
Intersection of general McIntosh Blvd and president street flooded.
Car stalled in high water on Henry street between east broad and east waldburg.
Intersection of I-16 and Gwinnett street flooded.
Portions of Victory drive... price street and 37th street in Savannah covered by 1 to 2 feet of water. Water up to the porches of a few homes.
Whitefield Road almost covered with water.


And the rain just keeps coming...






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1510. Drakoen
Yes, let's focus on the terrible job the ECMWF has done in wanting to bury this system in Mexico without it even seeing the light of the BOC in some of its forecast and with out even showing the stretching vorticity the GFS has been advertising previously.
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I think the tropical wave over western Africa has a good chance to become our first potent tropical cyclone of the season. It's absolutely massive...while this should help it fight off SAL and dry air once it emerges into the Atlantic, it also means it will take a while to develop. This will not be a Dorian or Erin in terms of tropical cyclogenesis. A slowly-organizing wave also means it's likely to take a farther west track than most later this season; the GFS suggests that this doesn't begin developing in earnest until it's barely northeast of the Leeward Islands. I think it will become a system before that. Long-term track uncertain, but it doesn't appear to be a Caribbean cruiser right now.

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Quoting 1483. Patrap:
A Vort,a Lil Low, either Elongated or perfect, is not the "Gut's" as Drak so eloquently explained, the Guts are usually the Impact players, which count.

It's a people Business in the end.


Like the ol Men say, its not what brings it, it da "Oomph dat matta's".



I say it's time to be a man about it (everyone) and ditch the models and watch with our lyin' eyes.

With a reversed Diurnal last night being over land, we *should* see a true DMAX tonight... which 92L really never experienced yet. 92L has a huge footprint, it's swirling an area twice the size of TX, I don't think it's subject to this ULL or that trof anymore. Absent steering, the only hurdles at this point are high adjacent pressure.
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1507. cmckla
Quoting 1207. unknowncomic:
You are due for a retired name storm.
Quoting 1207. unknowncomic:
You are due for a retired name storm.



We have....Katrina and Rita
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Quoting 1496. Civicane49:

Healthy little storm. something that is a scarcity in the Atlantic........
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1505. Levi32
Quoting 1498. Drakoen:


Thanks for a remedial lesson. I really needed that. Let's neglect the 850mb vort max southeast of Louisiana and focus on a lingering trash low.


That vort max originates SE of New Orleans. Check the loop. It does not come up from the south. It's baroclinically generated by the model within the shortwave trough, aided by advected energy from 92L, whose wave axis continues westward by Day 3.

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I noticed earlier this evening the lowest surface
pressure in The BOC was SW of the Surface Circulation of 92-L. What are the chances the LLC gets left behind and eventually develops after the Upper and mid level votices depart northeastward ?
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1503. etxwx
As Worries Over the Power Grid Rise, a Drill Will Simulate a Knockout Blow
By MATTHEW L. WALD - NYT - August 16, 2013

Excerpt: WASHINGTON — The electric grid, as government and private experts describe it, is the glass jaw of American industry. If an adversary lands a knockout blow, they fear, it could black out vast areas of the continent for weeks; interrupt supplies of water, gasoline, diesel fuel and fresh food; shut down communications; and create disruptions of a scale that was only hinted at by Hurricane Sandy and the attacks of Sept. 11

This is why thousands of utility workers, business executives, National Guard officers, F.B.I. antiterrorism experts and officials from government agencies in the United States, Canada and Mexico are preparing for an emergency drill in November that will simulate physical attacks and cyberattacks that could take down large sections of the power grid.

They will practice for a crisis unlike anything the real grid has ever seen, and more than 150 companies and organizations have signed up to participate.


More here.
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These storms in the Arabian Sea really interest me. I find it fascinating when a hurricane forms in a place where it is very rare otherwise.

Cyclone Phet: May-June 2010

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM PEWA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
500 PM HST FRI AUG 16 2013

EARLIER TODAY...PEWA HAD A RATHER IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BECOME RAGGED. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A
CONSENSUS 2.5...A 2040 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WHAT APPEAR TO BE
RELIABLE 40-45 KT WINDS TO THE NE AND E OF THE CENTER. THUS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING SET TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH
TIME...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP PEWA ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED NORTH
A BIT WITH THIS CYCLE AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE CHALLENGING. IN THE SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. PEWA
IS OVER WARM SSTS OF 28C AND WEAK SHEAR...WITH INCREASINGLY WARM
WATER AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST PATH.
HOWEVER...AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...PEWA WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE
EFFECTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 23N 173E. INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD HALT
INTENSIFICATION...THEN INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOW MUCH WEAKENING
WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 10.1N 175.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 10.5N 176.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 11.6N 179.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 12.4N 178.4E 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 13.4N 175.9E 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 15.0N 171.0E 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 17.0N 166.5E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 20.0N 162.0E 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PEWA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012013
500 PM HST FRI AUG 16 2013

...PEWA HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 175.4W
ABOUT 1340 MI...2160 KM SW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM SW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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Quoting 1475. CaicosRetiredSailor:
Vegas, Baby! Should Taxpayers Bail Her Out of Water Woes?

By Tom Yulsman | August 16, 2013 3:43 pm

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation made an historic announcement today: It is cutting its water releases from Lake Powell to their lowest levels since the giant reservoir on the Colorado River began to fill in the 1960s.

Thanks to increasing demand for Colorado River water, and decreasing supply resulting from profound drought, Lake Powell has dropped to less than half full. To help slow the decline,  the Bureau of Reclamation will reduce the amount of water Lake Powell releases downstream toward Lake Mead in 2014 by almost 1 million acre-feet. (An acre-foot is roughly the amount of water a U.S. household uses in a year.)

But that means Lake Mead, the other giant hydrological savings bank on the river — and the supplier of 90 percent of the water used by Las Vegas — could be headed for even more serious trouble in coming years.

That prospect has prompted the water czar for southern Nevada to float the idea of asking for federal disaster assistance to cope with dwindling water supplies. Quoted in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Pat Mulroy, head of the Southern Nevada Water Authority, compared the drought and its effects to Hurricane Sandy, which inundated large parts of the Northeast in fall of 2012........


Transcontinental water distribution system is what we need.

We have it for railroads, and liquid and gaseous fossil fuels, so it makes no sense not to do this with water, which is much safer anyway.

This is what happens when you build resort towns in the middle of a wasteland. It's not even about climate change, it's common sense. If you live in a desert you need water, and there're more and more people living in a desert, stressing water systems.

It doesn't take an exceptional drought to stress water systems when you have so many people sucking water out of the rivers.
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1498. Drakoen
Quoting 1485. Levi32:


This is called vorticity stretching due to the advection of diffluence overhead associated with the eastern flank of a shortwave trough.

The largest impacts have been advertised by all including myself to be the heavy rains for the north gulf coast. Texas and Mexico will see comparatively very little weather from this, but the root system seems likely to linger behind the baroclinic forcing to the north.



Thanks for a remedial lesson. I really needed that. Let's neglect the 850mb vort max southeast of Louisiana and focus on a lingering trash low.
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Quoting 1481. Drakoen:


This is what you call "guts" an insignificant area of precip in the BOC while all the precipitation (which you conveniently neglected to put in your post), energy, and strongest 850mb vorticity and low level isobaric kinking has advected off to the north. Please.



Quoting 1485. Levi32:


This is called vorticity stretching due to the advection of diffluence overhead associated with the eastern flank of a shortwave trough.

The largest impacts have been advertised by all including myself to be the heavy rains for the north gulf coast. Texas and Mexico will see comparatively very little weather from this, but the root system seems likely to linger behind the baroclinic forcing to the north.



So, lets say the ULL does pull off to the north - as a subtropical system. And the llc of 92L hangs out to the south. Do we have 92La and 92Lb, or does the ULL system become separate due to the involvement of the separately evolved ULL?
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Quoting 1486. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Joking or serious?
Completely serious lol. I haven't really analyzed much so I could be dead wrong, but it looks to me like the CPHC is over amplifying the potency of the upper-level winds towards the west. Intensity forecasts like this usually indicate something.

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

...ERIN IS A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 34.5W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MARKEDLY INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERIN DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A LARGE COLD CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SHIP MGSG6 PASSED NEAR THE CENTER
RECENTLY AND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT. A REVIEW OF THE
HISTORY OF THE SHIP WIND DATA SUGGESTS THE REPORT IS PROBABLY A FEW
KNOTS TOO HIGH...BUT IT EASILY SUPPORTS A 35 KT INITIAL INTENSITY.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE
ERIN MOVES OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND IN A MODERATE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR BY 36H DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE MIXING OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT INTO
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE SSTS NOTABLY INCREASE IN A
FEW DAYS...A COMBINATION OF THE DRY ENVIRONMENT...STRONG SHEAR AND
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PROBABLY CAUSE ERIN TO DEGENERATE INTO
A REMNANT LOW BY 96H. THIS SOLUTION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE MODELS DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE EVEN EARLIER THAN THE NEW NHC FORECAST.

ERIN APPEARS TO BE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KT...
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS HARDER TO LOCATE NOW DUE TO ALL OF THE
CONVECTION. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
AS ERIN ENCOUNTERS A REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE LEFT AROUND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH 72H. THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
WHEN ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
36H...THEN IS SHIFTED WESTWARD NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE UKMET...
GFS...ECMWF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AFTER THAT
TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 18.5N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 19.5N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 20.2N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 20.7N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 21.0N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 22.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 24.5N 51.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1493. Levi32
And did I mention we're still looking at GFS output, the model which has performed the worst on 92L so far. The ECMWF has done much better, and has the stretched wave axis turning westward by Day 3.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1492. Patrap
We plan to go down Houma,La way, maybe Lower Plaquemines Parish to document this one for wu.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1491. Patrap
Study Hurricane Juan, a late October Neutercane from 1985.

It has all the Mojo, Hi and Lo ya want. And a cloud pattern that stretched from the GOM to Chicago



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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather