92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1391 - 1341

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

What's an "a" among friends?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1390. Patrap
Im so confused
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1383. Levi32:


I'm sure CybrTeddy is thanking you for your elementary correction of him, as well.


I am grateful of all corrections, I make moronic mistakes sometimes and I feel it should be everyone's goal to point them out to me when I do.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1388. Drakoen
Quoting 1383. Levi32:


I'm sure CybrTeddy is thanking you for your elementary correction of him, as well.


Well look at you now. Lmao. I'll reserve my comments on that as beyond the scope of this blog. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1387. Grothar
Sometimes this blog is so atypical.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1386. JLPR2
This was probably posted already, but...

AL, 05, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 182N, 340W, 35, 1006, TS
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1378. JLPR2:


A good 4-5 degrees further south. We'll see if this one will take advantage of that or get lost in the ITCZ.


We also have to see if Erin leaves a big weakness for this system or the ridge fills behind Erin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1384. ncstorm
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1383. Levi32
Quoting 1381. Drakoen:


Yes, thank you for that elementary correction. Now I won't lose any sleep.


I'm sure CybrTeddy is thanking you for your elementary correction of him, as well, lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1382. Grothar
Quoting 1336. Drakoen:
Really pleased with the observations that have been made tonight on 92L by this blog. :)


Well, the only thing I feel badly about is when I tried to point out the ULL to some people last night, coming into the picture, and I was practically run off the blog. So I just left. I was really hurt. (")
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1381. Drakoen
Quoting 1374. Levi32:


You mean symmetric warm core.


Yes, thank you for that elementary correction. Now I won't lose any sleep.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1374. Levi32:


You mean symmetric warm core.


I corrected the error on both accounts, fatal slip of the mind.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1379. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1378. JLPR2
Quoting 1372. Tropicsweatherpr:


More south in latitude than what spawned Erin emerged.


A good 4-5 degrees further south. We'll see if this one will take advantage of that or get lost in the ITCZ.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1370. RascalNag:


I don't know what is going on anymore... this makes me wonder, what are some of the systems in the past that were notoriously hard to track?
Ike is one I know for sure.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1376. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
This situation reminds me a lot of Nate in 2011, with the models split between Mexico and the northern Gulf Coast.

Only real difference is that Texas is in play this time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1374. Levi32
Quoting 1364. Drakoen:


You mean asymmetric warm core


You mean symmetric warm core.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1366. JLPR2:


Current area trying to spin up was spawned by the large and intense area of convection that we saw yesterday, meanwhile the area of low pressure is still to emerge, you can identify it inland under two cells of convection.

So, while one area tries to get going just off shore another will merge with it. Plenty of energy in there to make something decent.


More south in latitude than what spawned Erin emerged.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1371. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1363. GTstormChaserCaleb:
2 GFS ensemble members are showing an Alabama landfall, interesting.



I don't know what is going on anymore... this makes me wonder, what are some of the systems in the past that were notoriously hard to track?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1369. Drakoen
With this new low farther north and east this will give credence to the more poleward right justified tracks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1368. csmda
Quoting 1342. opal92nwf:

Well here near Ft. Walton Beach, for the whole month of June, we hardly got ANY rain, but since July hit, it was like non-stop.


I am not that far from you in Destin and we got a decent amount of rain in June but nothing like July. I saw someone posting from Ft. Walton how they were on day 3 of no rain and here in Destin we had been on our 3rd day straight of rain. It's funny how different it can be just a few miles away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1364. Drakoen:


You mean asymmetric warm core


Typo on my part.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1366. JLPR2


Current area trying to spin up was spawned by the large and intense area of convection that we saw yesterday, meanwhile the area of low pressure is still to emerge, you can identify it inland under two cells of convection.

So, while one area tries to get going just off shore another will merge with it. Plenty of energy in there to make something decent.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1362. Levi32:


I just put a new blog up with my thoughts a couple hours ago.


ok, great! I will take a look. Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1364. Drakoen
Quoting 1360. CybrTeddy:


FSU's GFS phase diagrams support this conclusion as it's showing this as an asymmetric cold core system.


You mean symmetric warm core
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2 GFS ensemble members are showing an Alabama landfall, interesting, and they initialized the area where everyone seems to be looking at tonight.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1362. Levi32
Quoting 1345. TexasHurricane05:
Levi, Been off for a bit, just got back on. What are your thoughts on 92L? Any chance for TX to get anything out of this or will it die or go somewhere else?


I just put a new blog up with my thoughts a couple hours ago.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1351. panamasteve:

Kristina,

I don't know where you are in Bay County, but here near 79 and Back Beach, near KECP, we got over 2 feet of rain by July 15th. TAFB got much less than Western Bay County.


I'm in the Hiland Park area of Springfield. The St. Andrews area got hit very hard as well. My yard hasn't been able to be cut for five weeks now. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1355. Drakoen:
AMSU reveals a mostly warm column and maybe a shallow upper level cold core. Would be inclined to believe that this a mostly tropical system.





FSU's GFS phase diagrams support this conclusion as it's showing this as an symmetric warm* core system.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1359. Patrap
I hope we see 0 canes.

Im tired.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Best guess is if the current LLC doesn't dissipate is that the invest will continue to struggle with two competing circulations all the way up to landfall in northern Mexico as perhaps a 35mph depression. If the LLC does weaken and the ULL takes over as the dominate area of low pressure, ejecting heat into the atmosphere as it slowly works its way to the surface, we could see a 40kt tropical storm make landfall in southern Texas or somewhere else along the Gulf coast.

Anything stronger than 50kts is out of the question however, as the current struggles with the ULL it's facing off with has caused the NHC to lower the percentages to take into account the increased time it will take for the storm to organize.

Beyond that we're going to have to seriously watch the wave emerging from Africa behind now once again Tropical Storm Erin. Dorian and Erin made the fatal flaw of developing too quickly and ran themselves into cooler SST's and a more stable environment. This wave features a very broad area of low pressure with a reasonable amount of low-level turning currently over Africa judging by satellite, but will be very broad for the next 10 days. This wave does have potential to become our first hurricane of the season as it moves either into the Caribbean or north of the islands.

Outside of this wave, assuming 92L doesn't develop into a tropical cyclone, things will be very quiet as we wait for the MJO to rear its head into the Atlantic basin in accordance with the ECMWF, CFS, and GFS's forecasts. The GFS has been showing a significant ramp-up in activity as we head towards August 25th, about a similar time that 2010 did with Danielle. I expect numerous Cape Verde tropical storms and hurricanes back-to-back from August 25th through September 15th.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1303. vis0:
Q4Wxu: Is there a site/pg. that has records of any Hurricane(s) that have gone on to become Extra Tropical (warm to cool cores) then gone back to hurricane status. And if so, any that were Cat 3 (severe Hurr) to cat3 again?

I know TS Ophelia dissipated then came back to be a Cat 4 but it wasn't extropical in between
I can't think of too many storms that have gone through an extropical then tropical transition and going going to a cat 3 in such a cold environment would be hard
Able in 51(?) transitioned into a tropical cyclone and became a cat 3
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92L is looking like a big mess. Hopefully we get some actual storms soon. Its getting closer and closer to semptember without a real strong TS/hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1355. Drakoen
AMSU reveals a mostly warm column and maybe a shallow upper level cold core. Would be inclined to believe that this a mostly tropical system.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1336. Drakoen:
Really pleased with the observations that have been made tonight on 92L by this blog. :)
We've tried to keep it informative and somewhat light-hearted and fun in a social blog sense at the same time. For one night anyway.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1353. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1352. ncstorm
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1320. Kristina40:
My point was there were pockets of heavy rain that didn't hit Tyndall. Whatever the exact amount is (blame TWC) is semantics. The ground is completely saturated here and the drainage ditches and sewers are full. There were roads flooding this morning. There is nowhere for anymore rain to go.

Kristina,

I don't know where you are in Bay County, but here near 79 and Back Beach, near KECP, we got over 2 feet of rain by July 15th. TAFB got much less than Western Bay County.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1340. Tazmanian:



Not a football blog pat and off topic

my team is playing tomorrow!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1348. Grothar
Quoting 1273. ncstorm:



Gro, you crack me up..LOL..guilty as charged over here as well..


I would think something was wrong if we didn't :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1347. JLPR2
New spin moving offshore pretty far south 8-9N, the vorticity has also been increasing (strengthening) the last 6hrs.

If it keeps this up and fires some convection it should get a circle by tomorrow.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1341. Levi32:


I certainly think getting it named is possible, but with so much moisture being strung out away from it, and dry air crashing into the western gulf from the shortwave to the north, I have a hard time seeing it getting very strong if it does develop.
if the front wasnt there trying to pull the moisture from 92L to the northeast would you see a much more favorable environment?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Levi, Been off for a bit, just got back on. What are your thoughts on 92L? Any chance for TX to get anything out of this or will it die or go somewhere else?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1344. Patrap
So flag Taz..

pltttttttttttttttttttttttttttt...


; )
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Now I have a question for the blog. Am I the only one that has problems when the Satellite Service Division moves the floaters? The loop gets really really jumpy jumping back and forth between the before location and the after location before leveling out in the new location after a couple new frames or so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1305. sar2401:

I don't know where TWC is getting their information. Tyndall is the "official" station for Panama City, but Panama City Airport (KCEP) has reported 23.57 inches since June 1. You can go here and look up KCEP and add up the figures for yourself. I realize there's been a lot of rain - I live up the road in Eufaula, but three feet of rain is definitely an exaggeration.
Edit: Sorry. link is here. Just go to the last day of each month and add up the totals.

Well here near Ft. Walton Beach, for the whole month of June, we hardly got ANY rain, but since July hit, it was like non-stop.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1341. Levi32
Quoting 1338. Abacosurf:
Nice. Great call on 92 Levi.
Do you think a small tropical storm possible or is the drama in the upper levels going to peel away too much from the surface feature?


I certainly think getting it named is possible, but with so much moisture being strung out away from it, and dry air crashing into the western gulf from the shortwave to the north, I have a hard time seeing it getting very strong if it does develop. If it does deepen at all, expect it to happen just before reaching the coast as the shortwave lifts out and gives the system a little more breathing room.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1391 - 1341

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather