92L Poised to Develop in Gulf of Mexico; Erin Struggling in Far Eastern Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 16, 2013

Tropical wave 92L crossed over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula overnight, and the center of the disturbance is now located in the Gulf of Mexico along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite loops show that 92L has a well-developed surface circulation, but there are no heavy thunderstorms near the center. A moderate-sized region of heavy thunderstorms does lie to the northeast and east of the center, over Cancun, Cozumel, and southwards to Belize. An upper-level low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico is pumping dry air into 92L, slowing development. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the the wave, which should allow slow development today. The hurricane hunter flight scheduled for today has been cancelled.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 92L taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday August 16, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for 92L
The 12Z Friday SHIPS model forecast predicts that 92L will remain in an area of low to moderate wind shear through Saturday, and ocean temperatures will be a favorable 29 - 30°C. The topography of the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche can aid in getting a storm spinning more readily, as well. Given these favorable conditions for intensification, 92L should be able to become a tropical depression by Saturday, and a tropical storm by Sunday. A trough of low pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will dip down by Sunday over the Central Gulf of Mexico, increasing the wind shear to a high 20 - 30 knots just to the north of 92L. This trough may also be able to pull the storm northwestwards to a landfall in Texas on Monday or Tuesday, as the 00Z Friday runs of UKMET and NAVGEM model predict. If 92L does follow this more northwesterly path, intensification into a strong tropical storm would be difficult, due to the high wind shear. An alternate scenario is presented by our two top-performing models, the European and GFS. They predict that 92L will take a nearly due west track, resulting in a landfall south of Tampico, Mexico on Monday. The storm would have more of an opportunity to strengthen in this scenario, since wind shear would be lower. Either scenario is reasonable, and residents of the Mexican and Texas Gulf Coast should anticipate the possibility of a tropical storm hitting the coast as early as Sunday night. Regardless of 92L's track, a flow of moist tropical air along the storm's eastern flank will form an atmospheric river of moisture that will bring a wide swath of 4+ inches of rain to the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 50% of developing by Sunday, and a 60% chance of developing by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 70% and 80%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression Erin taken at 10:30 am EDT Friday August 16, 2013. At the time, Erin had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Erin
Tropical Storm Erin is over the far Eastern Atlantic off the coast of Africa, and continues west-northwest at 15 mph. Erin is small and weak and has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. This is probably due, in part, to the fact the storm is over waters of 25.5 - 26°C, which is a marginal temperature for tropical cyclones. Erin is also having trouble with dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), and the storm's west-northwest motion is beginning to cut Erin off from a moist source of air to its south--the semi-permanent band of tropical thunderstorms called the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.) The latest 00Z runs of the major global computer models, except for the GFS, call for Erin to dissipate by early next week. Given Erin's struggles today, I expect the storm will be dead by Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1341 - 1291

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

1341. Levi32
Quoting 1338. Abacosurf:
Nice. Great call on 92 Levi.
Do you think a small tropical storm possible or is the drama in the upper levels going to peel away too much from the surface feature?


I certainly think getting it named is possible, but with so much moisture being strung out away from it, and dry air crashing into the western gulf from the shortwave to the north, I have a hard time seeing it getting very strong if it does develop. If it does deepen at all, expect it to happen just before reaching the coast as the shortwave lifts out and gives the system a little more breathing room.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1331. Patrap:
Saints 20

Raiders 0

2nd



Not a football blog pat and off topic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1339. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1329. Levi32:
00z model guidance for 92L:

Nice. Great call on 92 Levi.
Do you think a small tropical storm possible or is the drama in the upper levels going to peel away too much from the surface feature?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1337. L1990
Quoting 1330. scott39:
92L is moving SSW


are you on crack
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1336. Drakoen
Really pleased with the observations that have been made tonight on 92L by this blog. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1335. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1334. Levi32
Quoting 1327. nrtiwlnvragn:


Careful with Ships track, it can come from BAMM as in this cycle, or from Official Interpolated as it was yesterday.


Yes. SHIPS, DSHP, and LGEM shouldn't even be considered track models, because they aren't. The track is always input from another model so that the SHIPS models can produce intensity forecasts.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1333. L1990
Quoting 1252. SuperStorm093:
WHAT? if you are thinking that this will be a big storm your horribly wrong and to want to be evacuated ????


um it doesnt have to be a big storm .. in fAct some people have already evacuated...btw im in the gulf of mexico at work... so it doesnt take much to be evacuated when you work on the water
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1310. GainesvilleGator:
HurricaneKing, the water vapor loop of the GOM shows the ULL filling in & becoming the LLC. This is the best view of what is going on. Someone needs to post the WVL.


Upper level lows don't become llc's. They can work the vorticity down to the surface and develop one or they can steal low level vorticity from things such as tropical waves and form them.


This upper level low looks about the same strength it has been all day. It's just very small and compact. Also a weakening upper level low actually wouldn't be ideal for developing a surface reflection because that would mean the vorticity in the atmosphere was weakening.

If say this was just an upper level low over the north atlantic not interacting with at tropical wave you would want it to develop a surface reflection while the upper level low was at its strongest then as the upper level low weakened the surface reflection could begin to gain strength from barotropic warm core processes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1331. Patrap
Saints 20

Raiders 0

2nd
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1330. scott39
92L is moving SSW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1329. Levi32
00z model guidance for 92L:

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1328. Patrap
Quoting 1325. TimSoCal:


Those exaggerative tendencies have never before been seen by man. :P


So is 400 ppm CO2 and rising.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1254. Skyepony:
How about we compare some model track error for 92L.. error in nm 0hr, 24hr, 48hr..

NAM 54.9 104.4 77.9
NVGM 48.2 118.5 205.3

go ships!
SHIP 0 50.4 69.6

someone find this model!
GHMI 0 48.7 18.9

HWRF 15.4 72.2 108.4
LBAR 0 55.4 144.8

GFDI 0 48.7 18.9
GFDL 18.2 77.2 90.5

DSHP 0 50.4 69.6
FIM9 32.4 154.1 -

crow for the CMC haters..
CMC 47.7 78.3 37.5

AVNO 39.6 99.5 108.8
BAMD - 82.9 76.2
BAMM - 63.2 56.6
BAMS - 61.5 43.8

& the gfs ensemble mean..
AEMN 46.3 99.9 39.8


Careful with Ships track, it can come from BAMM as in this cycle, or from Official Interpolated OFPI, NHC provisional interpolated as it was yesterday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1314. moonlightcowboy:
BTW, I want to commend Kori, and especially Daddyjames, for handling our discussion and differing opinions maturely and civilly. All pluses from me, and thanks for indulging an ol' fart novice like me a bit of latitude. ;P

The music's cooking, and there's some attractive opposite gender across the way, and some moonlight, so I'm outta here to STIR IT UP elsewhere. ;P

Thanks, y'all. Have fun. Hold the fort down and keep the doors closed except for TX! :)


Have a fantastic time, catch you later.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1321. Levi32:


I do apologize for being short. I have very low tolerance for claims of weather events "never before seen by man." Such claims are a present-day epidemic.


Those exaggerative tendencies have never before been seen by man. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

This Water vapor loop shows the ULL filling in. Transition almost complete.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is an Omen, for a landfall location

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
maybe invest 94L SOON
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1321. Levi32
Quoting 1314. moonlightcowboy:
BTW, I want to commend Kori, and especially Daddyjames, for handling our discussion and differing opinions maturely and civilly. All pluses from me, and thanks for indulging an ol' fart novice like me a bit of latitude. ;P

The music's cooking, and there's some attractive opposite gender across the way, and some moonlight, so I'm outta here to STIR IT UP elsewhere. ;P

Thanks, y'all. Have fun. Hold the fort down and keep the doors closed except for TX! :)


I do apologize for being short. I have very low tolerance for claims of weather events "never before seen by man." Such claims are a present-day epidemic.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
My point was there were pockets of heavy rain that didn't hit Tyndall. Whatever the exact amount is (blame TWC) is semantics. The ground is completely saturated here and the drainage ditches and sewers are full. There were roads flooding this morning. There is nowhere for anymore rain to go.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1319. hydrus
<
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1318. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1317. beell
Not much of an ULL structure left in this model at 200 and 300mb by tomorrow morning. Although there should be some cooler air aloft remaining.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Erin is sending hi to NHC...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1315. ncstorm
there is something about SC this year..it just has been in the sweet spot since winter with snow totals, rain totals, highs during the winter and lows just yesterday..

Frank Strait Fan Club
4.22" of rain at Columbia SC Metro Airport so far today. Wettest August day = 5.03" on 8/18/1965 so says SERCC. ‪#‎soaked‬ ‪#‎flood‬
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BTW, I want to commend Kori, and especially Daddyjames, for handling our discussion and differing opinions maturely and civilly. All pluses from me, and thanks for indulging an ol' fart novice like me a bit of latitude. ;P

The music's cooking, and there's some attractive opposite gender across the way, and some moonlight, so I'm outta here to STIR IT UP elsewhere. ;P

Thanks, y'all. Have fun. Hold the fort down and keep the doors closed except for TX! :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1313. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1299. tkdaime:
how strong is that high pressure in the n atlantic now a couple of months ago south fl was in trouble no what is going to happen.


High pressure areas fluctuate. What, did you think the Bermuda-Azores ridge would be nosing westward to the eastern Gulf every day of the season?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1311. hydrus
Quoting 1298. ncstorm:


LOL..yes, thats true..but we are a "community" so its all in or not..
So we all have to do push ups now. Africa producing some fine specimens..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HurricaneKing, the water vapor loop of the GOM shows the ULL filling in & becoming the LLC. This is the best view of what is going on. Someone needs to post the WVL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1302. OracleDeAtlantis:
Upwelling a problem, anyone?

Reality check ... ?


Storms this weak do not have problems with upwelling and if it was to become strong enough to upwell the flow at this point would be moving it along to the north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pewa coming into western Pacific satellite view.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The GFDI has been consistently doing the best with track this season from what I can tell.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1306. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 1301. hydrus:
Do you have a link to that sat image Skye.?

oops forgot to embed the loop. Here's the still. Looks like the last one before dark.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1305. sar2401
Quoting Kristina40:


I'm going by what TWC said earlier. Also, Tyndall is not Panama City. Some areas here got almost 20" on 3/4th of July. Our drainage ditches are full right now. The sewer grate at the store earlier had water through the grates.

I don't know where TWC is getting their information. Tyndall is the "official" station for Panama City, but Panama City Airport (KCEP) has reported 23.57 inches since June 1. You can go here and look up KCEP and add up the figures for yourself. I realize there's been a lot of rain - I live up the road in Eufaula, but three feet of rain is definitely an exaggeration.
Edit: Sorry. link is here. Just go to the last day of each month and add up the totals.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1303. vis0
Q4Wxu: Is there a site/pg. that has records of any Hurricane(s) that have gone on to become Extra Tropical (warm to cool cores) then gone back to hurricane status. And if so, any that were Cat 3 (severe Hurr) to cat3 again?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1248. Newswatcher:
Central SC didn't get out of the mid-60s. Makes it feel like autumn.
It's creepy for August.

Quoting 1261. Grothar:
It does appear, at least on this image, that the more northern low is getting stronger and might be the dominant one as most people are observing.



Upwelling a problem, anyone?

Reality check ... ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1301. hydrus
Quoting 1269. Skyepony:
Do you have a link to that sat image Skye.?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1272. Tropicsweatherpr:
Erin back to TS.

AL, 05, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 182N, 340W, 35, 1006, TS
Please I don`t want another Dorian kill her before she does.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1299. tkdaime
how strong is that high pressure in the n atlantic now a couple of months ago south fl was in trouble no what is going to happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1298. ncstorm
Quoting 1291. hydrus:
Do not lump us all in with the inexperienced N.C.....Some of us got the smarts reel gould..:)


LOL..yes, thats true..but we are a "community" so its all in or not..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1275. hydrus:
Evening Gro. I thought the north one ( 92L I hope ) was going to win out over the ULL. The ULL was a neat surprise, considering none of the models really picked up on it. If you look closely, one can see large gravity waves on the west side of 92L..


The northern low associated with all the convection is the upper level low. The southern one that is the naked swirl taking a nose dive in the Bay is the circulation associated with 92L......though I will say 92L has has the appearance of dueling vorts all day. It appears as the evening has progressed the northern and eastern most vort has found a sweet spot within the upper level low.

Having said that the naked swirl to the south and west is still the better defined of the two though it appears to be in the progress of weakening.

I see 3 different things that could occur.

1. We get a subtropical storm as the northern vort dominates and the upper level low remains with it.

2. The upper level low weakens the vorts finally merge and we get a tropical system.

3. The thing just weakens into nothing more than an area of increased moisture that moves into the gulf coast states and Mexico.

Right now in my opinion these three options have fairly equal chances of occurring.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1296. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting 1271. sar2401:

92L has hardly even had a track, and there still seems to be some doubt as to where the low is actually located. How could these track errors possibly be calculated based on such limited information?


The models initialized horrible the second day plus it was overland.. that is why they did pretty horrible that day by these calculations (overall maybe throw that day out but look hard at the few that got it).. They take the model runs & get the error distance after tracking the invest..which you know the NHC gives a location of several times a day. Yes there hasn't been the greatest tightest low to track but I've watched these storm & model verification numbers since back when these calculations came out of UCF..the models that are doing better with it than the rest will continue to out preform if the storm wraps up & intensifies. Here is the whole list. I just posted a handful. Over all the models haven't done well with 92L so far which is an important piece of info those numbers are also pointing out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1295. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)

Pewa up to 45 knots.

CP, 01, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1749W, 45, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 10, 40, 1009, 180, 40, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, PEWA, D,


2013AUG17 003000 2.9 1004.8 43.0 2.9 3.1 3.1

Dvorak 3.0 from RSMC been showing up in past hour.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hadn't looked since this morning , but expected to see some convection firing up around that LLC . Hadn't expected that little surprise to the NE .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1256. Dragod66:
slow blog tonight surprisingly.


92L burnout.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1288. Civicane49:
Pewa up to 45 knots.

CP, 01, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 99N, 1749W, 45, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 10, 40, 1009, 180, 40, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, PEWA, D,


JTWC is about to be extremely busy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1291. hydrus
Quoting 1281. ncstorm:


what were the words today to describe Erin..choking, at its end, dead, horrible, naked, terrible..

when will this blog learn?
Do not lump us all in with the inexperienced N.C.....Some of us got the smarts reel gould..:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1341 - 1291

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather